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Charts current to 5th September  2008

analysis on  8th September 2008

Updated Mondays, usually at around 1200 gmt 

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 Whole world bearish

8th September 2008: Some clear bearish developments this week. Let's start with the world at large:

Oil majors top: Most importantly, the Amex oil majors index, XOI, broke out of a persuasive 18 month top, ending the five year bull trend for this group of stocks. XOM, BP and Total are three stocks in this group that made persuasive breakouts from long term tops. Although the daily crude chart has not topped, the reversal of trend for these producers is good evidence that oil is heading lower.

Emerging markets top: The ETF representing emerging markets, EEM, has topped persuasively. These markets are now part of the global bear. Indeed, with the breakout from this fund, we can now say that the whole world is in a bear market.

In Asia, Hongkong has failed a key support on the weekly chart, giving a good chance that the index will test the 19,000 level. Thailand also broke a key support. Other Asian markets headed lower.

In the US, major indices fell out of rising wedges, suggesting a retest of previous lows.

Other newly confirmed bear markets are listed on the Other Global Markets page. They include Brazil, South Africa and Australia. Canada is yet to be confirmed. But its breakout is highly likely in the next few weeks.
 

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Table of Long Term Reversal Patterns

All numbers are approximate; arithmetic targets for falls are less likely than log targets; short and medium term targets are not included in this table; refer to country pages for further details

 
 Country Pattern  Status  Neckline
Target
(log)
 Target
(arithmetic)
Index as of Friday  5th/09/2008
  Hongkong   none . .   . 19,933.28
 India   none . .   . 14,483.83
 Indonesia  none . .    .  2,022.56
Japan
 double top 
 valid
14,200
 10,200
10,300
12,212.23
 Korea  head and shoulders top valid. ..1,640
 1,300
.1,200 1,404.38
Malaysia  head and shoulders top  valid.  .1,170
 910
 830. 1,070.54
Philippines  double top  valid..  2,885
 2,150
1,900. 2,724.72
Singapore   none . .
 
. 2,574.21
 Taiwan double top .valid 7,400
5,600
5,000 6,307.28
 Thailand head and shoulders top .valid 729
620.
590. 645.8
 S&P500
none
.
.
 .
1,242.31
DJIA none ..
 .
. 11,220.96
 NASDAQ none ..  . .
2,255.88



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