8th September 2008: Some clear bearish
developments this week. Let's start with the world at large:
Oil majors top: Most importantly, the
Amex oil majors index, XOI, broke out of a persuasive 18 month top, ending
the five year bull trend for this group of stocks. XOM, BP and Total are
three stocks in this group that made persuasive breakouts from long term
tops. Although the daily crude chart has not topped, the reversal of trend
for these producers is good evidence that oil is heading lower.
Emerging markets top: The ETF representing
emerging markets, EEM, has topped persuasively. These markets are now part
of the global bear. Indeed, with the breakout from this fund, we can now
say that the whole world is in a bear market.
In Asia, Hongkong has failed a key support
on the weekly chart, giving a good chance that the index will test the
19,000 level. Thailand also broke a key support. Other Asian markets headed
lower.
In the US, major indices fell out of rising
wedges, suggesting a retest of previous lows.
Other newly confirmed bear markets are listed
on the Other Global Markets page. They include
Brazil, South Africa and Australia. Canada is yet to be confirmed. But
its breakout is highly likely in the next few weeks.
All numbers are approximate; arithmetic
targets for falls are less likely than log targets; short and medium term
targets are not included in this table; refer to country pages for further
details
