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Charts current to 26th April 2013

analysis on 29th April 2013

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weekly update
Dow has more upside, Europe consolidates, energy bullish

 

20th May: Gold has pulled back to the top and turned. A lower low would suggest that the pullback has finished and the downtrend will continue. The S&P 500 is close to resistance but the Dow and the Nasdaq have further to go before any major obstacle. Energy is looking bullish. Europe is consolidating, Hongkong drifting upwards and Thailand on course for 1,700.
 
 


Last full update
 

 

US facing major test of the decade



29th April: The S&P500 is now battling with the strongest resistance of the decade. If this resistance passes, we can expect the beginning of a new long term bull trend, perhaps analogous to that of the early 1990s. On the other hand, if the index tops at this juncture, the danger remains that the decade-long range will continue. I am optimistic and think that the balance favours a breakout and further upside. Ten or twelve years is enough range time for the market to trade out the excesses of the tech boom inspired 'new economy' myth. While there are many overvalued stocks, the S&P is valued below the mean PE of 23.  Reversion to the multi-decade mean would take the S&P to around 1,750. I expect this to happen in the next year or two. 

Europe and emerging markets are still in the doldrums. However there are a few bright spots. Hongkong has turned around after a month or two of mild bearishness. Singapore has broken out of a three year range and Thailand is making encouraging signs that the market could be continuing its rally. Indonesia and Philippines are also still strongly bullish. 

gb

 

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