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Dow, Nasdaq , S&P

Bullish scenarios recede: but we're not yet out of the woods


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Charts current to 2nd May, except where otherwise indicated

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Looking hopeful, but still in a downtrend.


Good long term weekly support in orange.

The top is cancelled. The wedge-like shape with falling volume in black presents a danger of a return to the bearish trend.


Very good support at the current level: and on the channel support - which could still see a fall to 10,500 in 2009. So don't take too much comfort from this chart. It is very long in term and quite compressed.


Double resistance at 2,450 broken. This is clearly bullish.

The top cancelled.

Still in the down trend in pink.


Mildly bullish histogram in blue. But nothing to get excited about.

Breakout from the pink downtrend gives a chance for a bottom. That could take months.

Nice double bottom on channel support.

Little bottom on horizontal support is highly suggestive of a bottom for this sector.

Bottom potential but no breakout.

Breakout from bottom on support: bullish.

Short term rates have bottomed.

Long term rates have not yet bottomed.

Dangerous: although the bottom and breakout are excellent in terms of symmetry and volume, there is no certainty in a prediction. Unless we see a turn soon, there is a danger of failure. Breakout is marginal. But the top is quite threatening.



Breakout on good volume suggests a continuation of the current bullish trend.

Just a hope at the moment. But the increase in volume in the last year could set the stage for a bottom, as outlined in green.

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