Barton's Asian Stock Market Charts .............................................................................................................Disclaimer; Glossary

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US Markets

 
8th June: The Dow broke a key resistance last week, giving more fuel to the bullish scenario. But the index still hasn't bottomed. It could be a laggard. The ETF, VTI, representing the total US market, has bottomed albeit with unimpressive volume. The Consumer Discretionary sector has also bottomed nicely as have quite a few blue chips: Coke, Microsoft and Exxon. Thus the balance of probabilities is still in favour of the claim that the market has bottomed.

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Charts current to 5th June, except where otherwise indicated

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A breakout from a double bottom albeit with diminishing, rather than increasing, volume. For a reliable reversal, volume should be the opposite of what we see: a mirror image of the histogram starting at the surge of volume in October 2008.

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Resistance at 8,500 is broken. Next resistance at 9,000. The scenario in green is a best case scenario. One could imagine a few less desirable ones.

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A persuasive bottom for the Nasdaq, compared with the tiny bottom that sufficed to reverse a much larger bear trend.

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A good bottom with fairly good volume adds evidence to the claim that the market has bottomed.

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The ten year treasury has broken out of channel resistance and is heading for target of around 4.

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5 year rates have passed target.

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A very nice bull trend in pink. Excellent support in orange at around 36 easily turned the trend from bear to bull.

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A fine bottom in pink and breakout from pink resistance defining the bull trend. Long term the stock is still in a range (green).

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A nice little bottom in green. Volume is not persuasive. We should be seeing the surge of volume, as shown in the green circle, now rather than last October.

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A nice little bottom in green. Breakout from the yellow resistance would confirm target of 80.

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Chart current to 29th May 2009.
PE data for the index is controversial. The S&P website only gives quarterly data. This chart is a mixture of data from Robert J. Schiller and Jeremy Siegel. No persuasive trend is shown. However the index does look fairly cheap.
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The author of this website holds several of the stocks shown on this page

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