20085th May: The rally last week has cancelled the top for the Dow. The Nasdaq is looking bullish. But the S&P500 is still in a downtrend. VTI, the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF is also still in a strong downtrend. I'd like to see all of these bearish phenomena pass before saying we're out of the woods.
Current Prediction
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: double top points to (log) 11,700- done; (arithmetic) 11,500
Dow long term: none
Nasdaq short term: none
Nasdaq medium term: double top points to (log) 2,100, (arithmetic) 2,000
Nasdaq long term: none
S&P 500 medium term: double top points to (log) 1,300- done; (arithmetic) 1,200
S&P 500 long term: none
Long Bond: none
28th April: The Dow has broken out of a tiny bottom. But there is still a major danger of a resumption of the five month bear at 13,000. The S&P 500 is testing a major resistance at 1,400. A failure at this point would be bearish. NYSE Composite and Nasdaq tell a similar story. Looking at the indexes alone would give a bearish bias. However, looking at individual sectors and stocks gives a more bullish picture. Energy is bullish and has made a new high. Industrials, Technology, Utilities and Materials are all looking bullish too. Materials has broken out of a continuation pattern. Finance is a major exception. It is still well in a downtrend.
Many stocks look well supported and give good cause to expect that they are bottoming. 3M is one such stock. It has made a small bottom on a very strong 20 year support. Thus while the overall picture is still bearish, there is good reason to suspect that the market is bottoming. Perhaps a week or two will give further evidence.
Current Prediction
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: double top points to (log) 11,700- done; (arithmetic) 11,500
Dow long term: none
Nasdaq short term: none
Nasdaq medium term: double top points to (log) 2,100, (arithmetic) 2,000
Nasdaq long term: none
S&P 500 medium term: double top points to (log) 1,300- done; (arithmetic) 1,200
S&P 500 long term: none
Long Bond: none
21st April: The Dow has broken out of a tiny bottom. But there is still a major danger of a resumption of the five month bear at 13,000. The S&P 500 is testing a major resistance at 1,400. A failure at this point would be bearish. NYSE Composite and Nasdaq tell a similar story. Looking at the indexes alone would give a bearish bias. However, looking at individual sectors and stocks gives a more bullish picture. Energy is bullish and has made a new high. Industrials, Technology, Utilities and Materials are all looking bullish too. Materials has broken out of a continuation pattern. Finance is a major exception. It is still well in a downtrend.
Many stocks look well supported and give good cause to expect that they are bottoming. 3M is one such stock. It has made a small bottom on a very strong 20 year support. Thus while the overall picture is still bearish, there is good reason to suspect that the market is bottoming. Perhaps a week or two will give further evidence.
14th April: The perennial contradiction persists: we have tops pointing down quite a way further on the one hand. The NYSE and the ETF, VTI, representing the total market, show this clearly. On the other hand, we can see many excellent long term supports at or near the current level for both indices and stocks. Check out the weekly charts for the Dow and S&P 500. The support for GE is also interesting.
Current Prediction
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: double top points to (log) 11,700- done; (arithmetic) 11,500
Dow long term: none
Nasdaq short term: none
Nasdaq medium term: double top points to (log) 2,100, (arithmetic) 2,000
Nasdaq long term: none
S&P 500 medium term: double top points to (log) 1,300- done; (arithmetic) 1,200
S&P 500 long term: none
Long Bond: none
7th April: The S&P 500, the NYA and the total market fund, VTI, give the clearest bearish picture. The Dow and the Nasdaq offer a little more bullish hope. But note the resistances in pink on all index and index fund charts except the Dow. If the market has in fact bottomed and the bear trend is reversing to bullish, we would need to see these pink resistances break. The S&P is facing a particularly strong triple resistance at around 1,400. If this resistance breaks, there is a good chance of an end to the bearish trend.
A bullish light comes in the form of the Industrial Sector, shown by an ETF chart below. This sector has made a very nice bottom but is now facing resistance similar to that of the indices. If the resistance breaks this week, there is a good chance that this sector, and probably the whole market, have bottomed. On the other hand the financial sector is still stuck in a downtrend which shows no sign of reversing at present.
Current Prediction
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: double top points to (log) 11,700- done; (arithmetic) 11,500
Dow long term: none
Nasdaq short term: none
Nasdaq medium term: double top points to (log) 2,100, (arithmetic) 2,000
Nasdaq long term: none
S&P 500 medium term: double top points to (log) 1,300- done; (arithmetic) 1,200
S&P 500 long term: none
Long Bond: none
31st March: Mixed signals. The NYSE Composite index still looks unambiguously bearish. The Dow, on the other hand is ambiguous. It could either be bottoming or making a continuation pattern: a fall below its previous low at 11,700 would likely see 10,500, which is an excellent support. A rally to 12,700 or slightly higher, on strong volume, would suggest a bottom.
Other indications of a potential bottom may be found in individual sector charts. Many sectors are now sitting on very good supports. There are no bottoms yet to speak of. But materials, technology, staples and consumer discretionary all give rise to the hope of having bottomed. More to the point, these sectors show no sign of having broken the bullish channels that commenced in March 2003. They are still in bull mode.
Two very bullish charts: Walmart has broken out of a 3 year bottom on good volume. So has TIP, the inflation protected treasury. Both of these charts suggest long term upside. XLP, the consumer discretionary ETF, could also soon be in the same category.
Current Prediction
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: double top points to (log) 11,700- done; (arithmetic) 11,500
Dow long term: none
Nasdaq short term: none
Nasdaq medium term: double top points to (log) 2,100, (arithmetic) 2,000
Nasdaq long term: none
S&P 500 medium term: double top points to (log) 1,300- done; (arithmetic) 1,200
S&P 500 long term: none
Long Bond: none
24th March: Cheer last week, but none of the indices escaped from the medium term bear trend that commenced last October. Until that clear channel breaks, we have no cause to presume a bottom. The NYSE chart is the most ominous. There is no apparent support for that index, whereas the other indices offer modest hope. Note that charts are current to midweek last week.
One development of interest: Walmart broke out of a three year bottom formation. If the breakout holds, we will have a clear target of 60. Seem strange in a bear market. Well do a chart next week.
Current Prediction
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: double top points to (log) 11,700- done; (arithmetic) 11,500
Dow long term: none
Nasdaq short term: none
Nasdaq medium term: double top points to (log) 2,100, (arithmetic) 2,000
Nasdaq long term: none
S&P 500 medium term: double top points to (log) 1,300- done; (arithmetic) 1,200
10th March: The lower low made by the close on Friday in all US indices gives further evidence for the bearish case. The only indication of a possible whiplash (and failure of the bearish targets listed below) is a bullish divergence in new lows. See the 7th chart below. It shows fewer new lows than occurred when the index was at a similar low in January. That adds a bit of ambiguity to the situation. But the greater probability is further down.
Current Prediction
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: double top points to (log) 11,700- done; (arithmetic) 11,500
3rd March: Some good support at the current level. But lingering tops in all indices give cause for further bearish consideration. I'd want to see bottoms forming over the next month in order to feel confident that the worst has blown over.
Current Prediction
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: double top points to (log) 11,700- done; (arithmetic) 11,500
Dow long term: none
Nasdaq short term: none
Nasdaq medium term: double top points to (log) 2,100, (arithmetic) 2,000
Nasdaq long term: none
S&P 500 medium term: double top points to (log) 1,300- done; (arithmetic) 1,200
S&P 500 long term: none
Long Bond: none
25th February: All indices and the VTI Total Market fund give the same picture: a double top large enough to reverse the four year bull trend, but sitting on a good channel support which is strong enough to continue the same trend. Support on the S&P just above 1,300 might give a clue in the coming days or weeks. The tops are persuasive. But tops in the US market fail notoriously. Better to wait and see.
Current Prediction
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: double top points to (log) 11,700- done; (arithmetic) 11,500
Dow long term: none
Nasdaq short term: none
Nasdaq medium term: double top points to (log) 2,100, (arithmetic) 2,000
Nasdaq long term: none
S&P 500 medium term: double top points to (log) 1,300- done; (arithmetic) 1,200
S&P 500 long term: none
Long Bond: none
21st January: Tops have broken on all major US indices. The only exception is DJ Transports which is still supported. Otherwise, the greater probability is that the nearly five year bull trend has finished. The Dow and the S&P have often failed tops spectacularly. So we should be prepared for a whipsaw and cancellation of the top. But lingering bearish concerns would survive a cancellation of these tops.
The second chart shows a regression line for the S&P500 over a period of 57 years. The index is now right on the regression line. All we can conclude from this chart is that the market is not trading far from its historical average, as was the case at the peak of the last bull market in 2000.
On the other hand, large tops on the Citibank and Washington Mutual charts suggest that the sky could be about to fall on those banks. If the grim scenarios in those charts were to transpire, the market may well fall below the regression line in the second chart and struggle for several years, as occurred in the seventies.
Current Prediction
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: double top points to (log) 11,700; (arithmetic) 11,500
Dow long term: none
Nasdaq short term: none
Nasdaq medium term: double top points to (log) 2,100, (arithmetic) 2,000
Nasdaq long term: none
S&P 500 medium term: double top points to (log) 1,300; (arithmetic) 1,200
S&P 500 long term: none
Long Bond: none
14th January: Tops appearing on every index. The Dow has already broken out. But this index is notorious for whipsawing. An interesting index is the MSCI US Broad Market Index, tracked by the Vanguard ETF, VTI. This chart shows a top sitting on two very nice supports. Failure of the support would coincide with a breakout from the top. That's the sort of clear indication I like: clear channel, clear major top, clear neckline, no good supports nearby (meaning no great danger of whipsawing). A breakout from this chart would be a persuasive indication that the long term bullish trend that started in 2003 has reversed.
But I stress: it ain't over till it's over. It is just as likely that the trend continue. Many people were expecting a major bear in mid-2006 and it didn't happen. Chances are greater now. There is a huge double top on every major index. There was nothing like that in 2006. Dow and S&P tops have broken out. But the Dow is notorious for whipsawing. Trends should be presumed to continue until there is persuasive evidence to the contrary. Let's wait a week and see what the Wilshire does.
Current Prediction
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: none
Dow long term: a log target for the Dow of 15,000. Not sure what to make of it.
Nasdaq short term: none
Nasdaq medium term: none
Nasdaq long term: reverse head and shoulders (weekly) points to 3,200
S&P 500 medium term: none
S&P 500 long term: none
Long Bond: none
7th January 2008: Signs of long term topping on the Dow and the S&P. The latter has already broken out of a double top on the weekly chart, but not by a sufficient margin. It could be weeks or even a couple of months before uncertainty is resolved. Major tops require time to evolve and top phantoms can easily blow over.
A major factor to consider is the valuation of the market. The current valuation of the S&P is around 20 (a bit high) but the forward PE for the S&P is around 14 (its historical mean) and many blue chip stocks are at or very near ten year low valuations: consider GE, HD, IBM and MMM. (On the other hand MCD and KO are getting pricey at 38 and 26 respectively.) If the US markets were at valuation levels similar to those in Asia, we would have more cause for concern. But they're not.
Current Prediction
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: none
Dow long term: a log target for the Dow of 15,000. Not sure what to make of it.
Nasdaq short term: none
Nasdaq medium term: none
2007
Weakness in American Express suggests further downside for the financial sector. On the other hand, GE is on great support and there are a few nice double bottoms worth considering: IBM and Microsoft being two such.
Current Prediction
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: none
Dow long term: a log target for the Dow of 15,000. Not sure what to make of it.
Nasdaq short term: none
Nasdaq medium term: none
19th November: The Dow would have broken out of a double top if it falls below 12,800. But this would require confirmation over the course of a few weeks. Otherwise, nothing but weakness.
12th November: The Dow failed a two year support last week, suggesting further downside. Next good support is at 12,300. But we have no target at that level. Anything could happen in the next few weeks. Discretionaries and Financials failed key support on the S&P sector ETFs. Citibank failed a long term support. Note that there are only six new charts on this week's update.
5th November: This week:
15th October: The big news this week
is a breakout on the S&P 500. The index broke out from its six or seven
year high. The breakout is still marginal when viewed in the long term
context, but it's almost enough to persuade that a new phase of bullishness
has begun. A 27 year S&P 500 chart is shown with a logarithmic scale.
It shows that the recent, five year, bull has one of the flatter trajectories
of historical bull markets. I am conjecturing that this trajectory might
change, once a new high is confirmed.
Also of interest this week is a chart of XLP, the staples ETF. According to Standard and Poor, this ETF is fully valued and trading at a premium. Nonetheless, if it breaks a long term neckline, I am suggesting that it might well be one of the best performers of the next few years. Something to ponder. Long term stock charts for Intel and Microsoft also suggest that technology has good long term prospects.
Market breadth is still strong. Even the down days saw more new highs than new lows.
8th October: New highs for the indices adds a bullish tone to the short term. But there is still strong resistance for the Dow and the breakout for the S&P is marginal. Perhaps another week will give a clearer picture. Transports are looking bullish, as the Dow Transports Index turns on a nice support. Three financial stock charts shown below: each shows a new recent high, suggesting that the sub-prime mortgage invasion from Mars was but a shakeout.
1st October: Major indices are retesting
pre-correction highs. The S&P is retesting its all-time high. A breakout
from that high would signal renewed
life to the four year bull market. QQQQ has already made a higher high
than that of the June-July peak. It could be a leading indicator. The New
52 week Hi/Lo chart was bullish throughout last week, despite a down day
or two. All in all, there are no bearish signals to speak of. But the big
test awaits.
Interesting stock charts: AXP, BAC, and C in the financial category; two housing stocks showing the Mother of All Head and Shoulders tops and a few blue chips looking rather bullish.
24th September: Now the test: as the Dow approaches its recent high of 14,000 we shall see whether we get a new high or a double top. If the latter, we would have evidence of a major trend reversal. Some stocks are showing good support and long term upside. American Express and Bristol Myers are two such.
17th September: The Dow has broken resistance in the one year chart. This tips the balance towards and end of the short term bear trend of the last few weeks. The crossover of averages on the new hi/lo histogram supports this scenario. The consequence of the last few weeks volatility would be a mere turn on channel support, such as occurred in mid-last year and in February this year. There is still a chance that the Dow makes a double top, as suggested by the first chart. The warning signal would be a rally to the previous high of 14,000 on low volume. Similar scenarios are presented for the S&P, the Nasdaq, the NYSE, XOI, Transports, Utilities and probably every index we can find.
Stock charts this week show, in all cases, nice turns on four or five year channel supports.
11th September: Despite the dips and swings of the last couple of weeks, essentially, no change to the current picture. While there are plenty of bearish scenarios, none is confirmed. At most we have volatility in bullish channels. A crossover of moving averages in the new high/low chart is the first indication of a possible end to the current short term bear trend.
28th August: All major indices and lots of blue chips are showing turns on bullish channel supports. That could mean that the volatility of the last few weeks is merely a short term bearish blip. Or we could be seeing something develop with a longer term bearish implication. But that would take several weeks or months to manifest. While bullish supports hold, the presumption is that the medium term and long term trends are bullish.
13th August: The Dow and the Nasdaq have each made a little head and shoulders top scenario. But they are well supported on good channel supports. Another fall for the Dow would revive our target of 12,500, or thereabouts. The S&P and the NYA, on the other hand, do not have such top patterns. Some blue chips are showing signs of being on good support. Others not. It's anyone's guess what will happen in the next couple of weeks.
Current Prediction
Dow short term: double top points to 12,550 - cancelled
Dow medium term: none
Dow long term: none
Nasdaq short term: none
Nasdaq medium term: none
Nasdaq long term: reverse head and shoulders (weekly) points to 3,200
S&P 500 medium term: none
S&P 500 long term: none
Long Bond: none
6th August: Some warning signs, but nothing yet to indicate a change to the long term bullish trend. The Dow is on good support. But it is suffering from a short term double top that points to 12,550. The target would be confirmed if the index falls below 13,100 and closes at around 13,050. Other indices have similar outlooks. Financials are taking the brunt of the falls and are likely to drop a bit further in the short term.
30th July: The question now is whether good supports will hold. The Dow has good support in the first chart at 13,100. On the weekly chart support is at around 13,000. The S&P and the Nasdaq have support at the current level. If we get turns on these supports, the recent plunge would probably amount to little more than another session of profit taking.
However, there are some danger signs: First, the S&P has made a double top. If this is not cancelled in a few days, there is a chance of a further 3 or 4 percent downside in the short term. Secondly, the Nasdaq Financial Index has made a clear double top, which spells more downside for this sector unless we see a surprise rebound and cancellation in the next few days. Citibank is also looking rather weak, having made a double top. Bank of America, on the other hand, has found good support.
In summary, another week or two will be needed before we can get a feeling for the trend. In the meantime, we should presume a continuation of the bullish trend.
Current Prediction
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: none
Dow long term: none
Nasdaq short term: none
Nasdaq medium term: none
Nasdaq long term: reverse head and shoulders (weekly) points to 3,200
S&P 500 medium term: none
S&P 500 long term: none
Long Bond: none
Current Prediction
Dow short term: symmetrical triangle points to 14,050
Dow medium term: none
Dow long term: reverse head and shoulders (daily and weekly) points to 14,000 - done
Nasdaq short term: none
Nasdaq medium term: none
Nasdaq long term: reverse head and shoulders (weekly) points to 3,200
S&P 500 medium term: none
S&P 500 long term: none
Long Bond: none
The only bearish indicator I can find is the new HI/Low histogram chart, which shows bearish divergence as the ratio of new highs minus new lows has decreased over the last few months while the NYSE Composite rallies. As to the significance of this indicator, I really can't say.
Current Prediction
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: none
Dow long term: reverse head and shoulders (daily and weekly) points to 14,000 - good as done
Nasdaq short term: none
Nasdaq medium term: none
Nasdaq long term: reverse head and shoulders (weekly) points to 3,200
S&P 500 medium term: none
S&P 500 long term: none
Long Bond: none
Current Prediction
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: none
Dow long term: reverse head and shoulders (daily and weekly) points to 14,000
Nasdaq short term: none
Nasdaq medium term: none
Nasdaq long term: reverse head and shoulders (weekly) points to 3,200
S&P 500 medium term: none
S&P 500 long term: none
Long Bond: none
Current Prediction
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: none
Dow long term: reverse head and shoulders (daily and weekly) points to 14,000
Nasdaq short term: none
Nasdaq medium term: none
Nasdaq long term: reverse head and shoulders (weekly) points to 3,200
S&P 500 medium term: none
S&P 500 long term: none
Long Bond: none
Current Prediction
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: none
Dow long term: reverse head and shoulders (daily and weekly) points to 14,000
Nasdaq short term: none
Nasdaq medium term: none
Nasdaq long term: reverse head and shoulders (weekly) points to 3,200
S&P 500 medium term: none
S&P 500 long term: none
Long Bond: none
Current Prediction
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: none
Dow long term: reverse head and shoulders (daily and weekly) points to 14,000
Nasdaq short term: none
Nasdaq medium term: none
Nasdaq long term: reverse head and shoulders (weekly) points to 3,200
S&P 500 medium term: none
S&P 500 long term: none
Long Bond: none
Current Prediction
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: none
Dow long term: reverse head and shoulders (daily and weekly) points to 14,000
Nasdaq short term:none
Nasdaq medium term: none
Nasdaq long term: reverse head and shoulders (weekly) points to 3,200
S&P 500 medium term: none
S&P 500 long term: none
Long Bond: none
Current Prediction
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: none
Dow long term: reverse head and shoulders (daily and weekly) points to 14,000
Nasdaq short term: none
Nasdaq medium term: none
Nasdaq long term: reverse head and shoulders (weekly) points to 3,200
S&P 500 medium term: none
S&P 500 long term: none
Long Bond: none
Current Prediction
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: none
Dow long term: reverse head and shoulders (daily and weekly) points to 14,000
Nasdaq short term: none
Nasdaq medium term: none
Nasdaq long term: reverse head and shoulders (weekly) points to 3,200
S&P 500 medium term: none
S&P 500 long term: none
Long Bond: none
Current Prediction
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: none
Dow long term: reverse head and shoulders (weekly) points to 14,400
Nasdaq short term: none
Nasdaq medium term: none
Nasdaq long term: reverse head and shoulders (weekly) points to 3,200
S&P 500 medium term: none
S&P 500 long term: none
Long Bond: none
Current Prediction
Dow short term: double bottom points to 12,700 - done
Dow medium term: none
Dow long term: reverse head and shoulders (weekly) points to 14,400
Nasdaq short term: none
Nasdaq medium term: none
Nasdaq long term: reverse head and shoulders (weekly) points to 3,200
S&P 500 medium term: none
S&P 500 long term: none
Long Bond: none
As for the Nasdaq, the weekly chart gives the most promising outlook, with a target of around 3,200, which is near to being confirmed. The critical support is the neckline at around 2,370, which has held well until now.
Current Prediction
Dow short term: double bottom points to 12,700
Dow medium term: none
Dow long term: reverse head and shoulders (weekly) points to 14,400
Nasdaq short term: 1.double top points to 2,260 - cancelled
Nasdaq medium term: none
Nasdaq long term: reverse head and shoulders (weekly) points to 3,200
S&P 500 medium term: none
S&P 500 long term: none
Long Bond: none
Current Prediction
Dow short term: double bottom points to 12,700
Dow medium term: none
Dow long term: reverse head and shoulders (weekly) points to 14,400
Nasdaq short term: 1.double top points to 2,260 - cancelled
Nasdaq medium term: none
Nasdaq long term: reverse head and shoulders (weekly) points to 3,200
S&P 500 medium term: none
S&P 500 long term: none
Long Bond: none
12th March: Possible support for the indices at the current level. But too soon to say. Two support scenarios in the first Dow chart and another in the second Dow chart, at 11,700. This would be the best support, should the index fall to this level. If the indices hold at the current level, the Nasdaq weekly chart would give a very bullish scenario.
Current Prediction
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: none
Dow long term: reverse head and shoulders (weekly) points to 14,400
Nasdaq short term: double top points to 2,260
Nasdaq medium term: none
Nasdaq long term: reverse head and shoulders (weekly) points to 3,200
S&P 500 medium term: none
S&P 500 long term: none
Long Bond: none
While volatility is often a precursor to a reversal, in the present case, there is a strong bullish scenario for the Dow and an equally strong bullish scenario on the weekly Nasdaq chart. I would give priority to those bullish scenarios, until the contrary is shown.
Current Prediction
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: none
Dow long term: reverse head and shoulders (weekly) points to 14,400
Nasdaq short term: double top points to 2,260
Nasdaq medium term: none
Nasdaq long term: reverse head and shoulders (weekly) points to 3,200
S&P 500 medium term: none
S&P 500 long term: none
Long Bond: none
Current Prediction
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: none
Dow long term: reverse head and shoulders (weekly) points to 14,400
Nasdaq medium term: none
Nasdaq long term: reverse head and shoulders (weekly) points to 3,200
S&P 500 medium term: none
S&P 500 long term: none
Long Bond: Good chance of 5.6.
Current Prediction
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: none
Dow long term: reverse head and shoulders (weekly) points to 14,400
Nasdaq medium term: none
Nasdaq long term: reverse head and shoulders (weekly) points to 3,200
S&P 500 medium term: none
S&P 500 long term: none
Long Bond: Good chance of 5.6.
Current Prediction
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: none
Dow long term: reverse head and shoulders (weekly) points to 14,400
Nasdaq medium term: none
Nasdaq long term: reverse head and shoulders (weekly) points to 3,200
S&P 500 medium term: none
S&P 500 long term: none
Long Bond: Good chance of 5.6.
Current Prediction
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: none
Dow long term: reverse head and shoulders (weekly) points to 14,400
Nasdaq medium term: none
Nasdaq long term: reverse head and shoulders (weekly) points to 3,200
S&P 500 medium term: none
S&P 500 long term: none
Long Bond: Good chance of 5.6.
Current Prediction
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: none
Dow long term: reverse head and shoulders (weekly) points to 14,400
Nasdaq medium term: none
Nasdaq long term: reverse head and shoulders (weekly) points to 3,200
S&P 500 medium term: none
S&P 500 long term: none
Long Bond: Good chance of 5.6.
Current Prediction
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: none
Dow long term: reverse head and shoulders (weekly) points to 14,400
Nasdaq medium term: none
Nasdaq long term: reverse head and shoulders (weekly) points to 3,200
S&P 500 medium term: none
S&P 500 long term: none
Long Bond: Good chance of 5.6.
2006
Current Prediction
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: none
Dow long term: reverse head and shoulders (weekly) points to 14,400
Nasdaq medium term: none
Nasdaq long term: reverse head and shoulders (weekly) points to 3,200
S&P 500 medium term: none
S&P 500 long term: none
Long Bond: Good chance of 5.6.
Current Prediction
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: none
Dow long term: reverse head and shoulders (weekly) points to 14,400
Nasdaq medium term: none
Nasdaq long term: reverse head and shoulders (weekly) points to 3,200
S&P 500 medium term: none
S&P 500 long term: none
Long Bond: Good chance of 5.6.
Current Prediction
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: none
Dow long term: reverse head and shoulders (weekly) points to 14,400
Nasdaq medium term: none
Nasdaq long term: reverse head and shoulders (weekly) points to 3,200
S&P 500 medium term: none
S&P 500 long term: none
Long Bond: Good chance of 5.6.
20th November : Persuasive breakouts for the Dow and the Nasdaq weekly charts confirm the strength of the current bullish trend. 14,000 for the Dow and 3,200 for the Nasdaq are credible targets within the next 12 months.
Current Prediction
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: none
Dow long term: reverse head and shoulders (weekly) points to 14,400
Nasdaq medium term: none
Nasdaq long term: reverse head and shoulders (weekly) points to 3,200
S&P 500 medium term: none
S&P 500 long term: none
Long Bond: Good chance of 5.6.
13th November : Dow is testing a fairly strong resistance in the second chart. 30 year bond is testing an important support. Otherwise, a quiet week.
30th October : Nothing of great significance. The Nasdaq has turned on a medium term resistance. But there is nothing to suggest a reversal of the medium term bull. Dow is testing a fair support, as is the S&P. But otherwise, nothing exciting.
Thus there is a high probability that the US markets have entered a new bullish trend. Also compelling are long term bottom charts for GE, Coke, Walmart, Verizon, Pharmaceuticals Holders Trust and IBM. Each of these charts shows the breakout from a long term bottoming pattern on good volume, thus reinforcing the likely continuation of the long term bullish trend.
The downside is shown in the Transports, which, according to classical theory, are required to breakout with the Industrials, to confirm the bullish trend. The Transports are lagging and may take some months to make a new high. Alternatively, they could make another top, signalling the beginning of a bear market. On balance, I would side with the bulls until bearish signals are clear.
16th October : No resistances left for
the Dow until 13,500 or thereabouts. Of course a failure of the current
support could reinstate the resistance that was broken last week. But the
trend is bullish. The NYSE and the Nasdaq both closed at strong resistances
last Friday. With luck, they will follow the Dow. Bearish scenarios for
the NYSE composite, the DJ Utilities and Transports. But they could be
a few months or even a year in the making. Oil appears to have bottomed.
Current Prediction
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: none
Dow long term: none
Nasdaq medium term: none
Nasdaq long term: none
S&P 500 medium term: none
S&P 500 long term: none
Long Bond: Good chance of 5.6.
Current Prediction
Dow short term: double bottom points to 11,800 - done
2nd October : A healthy week for the Dow,
rallying on strong volume. Other indices also look strong for the short
to medium term. But there are long term dangers for this market: the threat
of a double top for the Dow, as average volume is much lower now than it
was in May; the double top scenario for the NYSE composite index, which
has doubled since 2003 and is facing long term channel resistance; a similar
top scenario on long term resistance for the DJ Utilities index and a double
top for the Dow Transports that has broken out. These indicators may herald
a major bear market. However, it could be months or even a year before
they operate, if at all. With many market indicators looking bullish, it
would be dangerous make predictions of doom. The alternative would be a
Dow that breaks previous resistance, albeit on lower average volume, and
sails past the 12,000 region. The trend is elusive the moment, but bullish
until confirmed otherwise.
Current Prediction
Dow short term: double bottom points to 11,800, but suffers from low volume. Previous recent high of 11,600 would be the test.
Dow medium term: none
Dow long term: none
Nasdaq medium term: none
Nasdaq long term: none
S&P 500 medium term: none
S&P 500 long term: none
Long Bond: Good chance of 5.6.
25th September: Danger as the Dow approaches 11,600 with average volume falling and a wedge formation developing clearly. On the other hand, volume has been building over the last few weeks for the Nasdaq, giving some cause for bullish hope. Keep an eye on Dow Transports and Utilities. The former has a confirmed bearish top. The latter has a short term top and a long term topping scenario.
18th September: Indices are looking more
bullish as volume returns to the market. However, the recent high for the
Dow is being retested on substantially lower volume. This is bearish. We
shall have to wait and see what happens.
Current Prediction
Dow short term: double bottom points to 11,800, but suffers from low volume. Previous recent high of 11,600 would be the test.
Dow medium term: none
Dow long term: none
Nasdaq medium term: none
Nasdaq long term: none
S&P 500 medium term: none
S&P 500 long term: none
Long Bond: Good chance of 5.6.
Current Prediction
Dow short term: double bottom points to 11,800, but suffers from low volume. Previous recent high of 11,600 would be the test.
Dow medium term: none
Dow long term: none
Nasdaq medium term: none
Nasdaq long term: none
S&P 500 medium term: none
S&P 500 long term: none
Long Bond: Good chance of 5.6.
28th August:
The outlook for the US markets is still unclear, in the short, medium and
long term. There are both positive and negative scenarios for each index.
The Dow Transports is the most unambiguous indicator. It is clearly bearish.
Utilities are testing a long term resistance and are more likely topping.
But it will take a few months for this act to be played out.
Current Prediction
Dow short term: double bottom points to 11,800, but suffers from low volume. Previous recent high of 11,600 would be the test.
Dow medium term: none
Dow long term: none
Nasdaq medium term: none
Nasdaq long term: none
S&P 500 medium term: none
S&P 500 long term: none
Long Bond: Good chance of 5.6.
21st August: Bottoms in the major indices but not supported by good volume. Failure would not surprise. However, many stocks are showing signs of having turned on long term supports, giving rise to the hope that the market has made a long term bottom.
7th August: Some bullish signals: bottoming patterns for the Dow, the S&P, NYSE Composite and the Nasdaq. But volume is weak, suggesting that bottoms could easily fail after breakout. Many stocks have turned on good long term supports and appear to be leading the market. MOT, IDTI and T are fulfilling long term expectations of the beginning of the year. On the other hand, there are some very bearish omens in the air: The long term resistance for the NYSE Composite, which clearly suggests and impending major bearish reversal, the DJ Utilities Index and the DJ Transports, both of which appear to be topping.
Current Prediction
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: none
Dow long term: none
Nasdaq medium term: none
Nasdaq long term: none
S&P 500 medium term: none
S&P 500 long term: none
Long Bond: Good chance of 5.6.
10th July: The Dow and the Nasdaq are both supported on short term channel supports. But otherwise there is no clear sign of direction. Bottoming scenarios exist for both indices. But there are also long term topping scenarios that could see the markets fall further. Could be a few weeks or months before clear direction appears.
Current Prediction
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: none
Dow long term: none
Nasdaq medium term: none
Nasdaq long term: none
S&P 500 medium term: none
S&P 500 long term: none
Long Bond: Good chance of 5.6.
Current Prediction
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: none
Dow long term: none
Nasdaq medium term: none
Nasdaq long term: none
S&P 500 medium term: none
S&P 500 long term: none
Long Bond: Good chance of 5.6.
Current Prediction
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: none
Dow long term: none
Nasdaq medium term: none
Nasdaq long term: none
S&P 500 medium term: none
S&P 500 long term: none
Long Bond: Good chance of 5.6.
19th June: All three major US indices are testing good supports. But we can't confirm a bottom till there's a bottom. Patience. With luck we'll see some nice double bottoms in a week or two. Failing that, we'll have to look for new supports. Danger in the Dow chart of a head and shoulders top with target of 9,800. Beware of rallying on low volume.
Current Prediction
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: none
Dow long term: none
Nasdaq medium term: none
Nasdaq long term: none
S&P 500 medium term: none
S&P 500 long term: none
Long Bond: Good chance of 5.6.
12th June: The Dow failed a very strong support last week and is testing a last ditch long term support. If it fails, we can consider the market to be in a medium term bear trend. Nasdaq has support at the current level. But it would take a week or two at least to determine a bottom.
Current Prediction
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: double bottom points to 12,000 - cancelled
Dow long term: reverse head and shoulders (daily and weekly) points to 14,000 - not yet confirmed
Nasdaq medium term: none
Nasdaq long term: reverse head and shoulders (daily and weekly) points to 3,200, confirmed above 2,450 on the weekly chart - cancelled
S&P 500 medium term: none
S&P 500 long term: none
Long Bond: Good chance of 5.6.
5th June: Dow is looking well supported at 11,100. Nasdaq could retest previous lows in the coming week or two.
Current Prediction
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: double bottom points to 12,000 - now questionable
Dow long term: reverse head and shoulders (daily and weekly) points to 14,000 - not yet confirmed
Nasdaq medium term: none
Nasdaq long term: reverse head and shoulders (daily and weekly) points to 3,200, confirmed above 2,450 on the weekly chart.
S&P 500 medium term: none
S&P 500 long term: none
Long Bond: Good chance of 5.6.
22nd May: Good support for the Dow and possible support for the Nasdaq. Both indices are still more likely bullish than not. But another week or two or three might be necessary in order to find a bottom to the last two weeks of free-fall. Take a look at the weekly chart, in order to iron out some of the noise.
Current Prediction
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: double bottom points to 12,000 - now questionable
Dow long term: reverse head and shoulders (daily and weekly) points to 14,000 - not yet confirmed
Nasdaq medium term: none
Nasdaq long term: reverse head and shoulders (daily and weekly) points to 3,200, confirmed above 2,450 on the weekly chart.
S&P 500 medium term: none
S&P 500 long term: none
Long Bond: Good chance of 5.6.
Current Prediction
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: double bottom points to 12,000 - confirmed
Dow long term: reverse head and shoulders (daily and weekly) points to 14,000 - not yet confirmed
Nasdaq medium term: none
Nasdaq long term: reverse head and shoulders (daily and weekly) points to 3,200, confirmed above 2,450 on the weekly chart.
S&P 500 medium term: none
S&P 500 long term: none
Long Bond: Good chance of 5.6.
8th May: The Dow broke is midway to a target of 12,000 (first chart) after having passed a strong resistance (second chart.). Good chance that the Dow is heading for 14,000 over the next year or two. The Nasdaq shrugged off a short term double top, but is not looking as sanguine as the Dow. S&P broke a key resistance.
Current Prediction
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: double bottom points to 12,000 - confirmed
Dow long term: reverse head and shoulders (daily and weekly) points to 14,000 - not yet confirmed
Nasdaq medium term: none
Nasdaq long term: reverse head and shoulders (daily and weekly) points to 3,200, confirmed above 2,450 on the weekly chart.
S&P 500 medium term: none
S&P 500 long term: none
Long Bond: Good chance of 5.6.
1st May: Both the Dow and the Nasdaq are looking quite bullish. The Nasdaq is supported at the current level, but a fall to, say, 2,290 would suggest a week of bearishness. The S&P is struggling on resistance, which raises a measure of doubt for the US markets.
Current Prediction
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: double bottom points to 11,400 - done
Dow long term: reverse head and shoulders (weekly) points to 14,000 - not yet confirmed
Nasdaq medium term: none
Nasdaq long term: reverse head and shoulders (daily and weekly) points to 3,200, confirmed above 2,450 on the weekly chart.
S&P 500 medium term: none
S&P 500 long term: none
Long Bond: Good chance of 5.6.
17th April: Possible supports for the Dow and the Nasdaq and a bearish short term top for the S&P. But nothing clear to go on with the indices. The long bond has broken an important resistance. Many interesting stocks.
Current Prediction
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: double bottom points to 11,400 - now questionable.
Dow long term: reverse head and shoulders (weekly) points to 14,000 - not yet confirmed
Nasdaq medium term: none
Nasdaq long term: reverse head and shoulders (daily and weekly) points to 3,200, confirmed above 2,450 on the weekly chart.
S&P 500 medium term: none
S&P 500 long term: none
Long Bond: Good chance of 5.6.
9th April: The Dow and Nasdaq are well supported. The 30 Year Bond has broken out of a bottom pointing to 5.6%.
Current Prediction
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: double bottom points to 11,400 - now questionable.
Dow long term: reverse head and shoulders (weekly) points to 14,000 - not yet confirmed
Nasdaq medium term: none
Nasdaq long term: reverse head and shoulders (daily and weekly) points to 3,200, confirmed above 2,450 on the weekly chart.
S&P 500 medium term: none
S&P 500 long term: none
Long Bond: Good chance of 5.6.
3rd April: The Dow is on good double support. But there are numerous resistances up to 11,800. The weekly chart shows a possible reverse head and shoulders pattern with breakout on impressive volume. With luck, this pattern will propel the index to 14,000. But only a clear breakout into the 12,000 region would confirm this target. The Nasdaq has made a recent high, but volume fails to build. Nonetheless, the index has a tentative target of 3,200, with medium term resistance at around 2,420 on the weekly chart and 2,500 on the daily chart.
Current Prediction
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: double bottom points to 11,400 - now questionable.
Dow long term: reverse head and shoulders (weekly) points to 14,000 - not yet confirmed
Nasdaq medium term: none
Nasdaq long term: reverse head and shoulders (daily and weekly) points to 3,200, confirmed above 2,450 on the weekly chart.
S&P 500 medium term: none
S&P 500 long term: none
Long Bond: fall back to 4.4 quite likely in the short term. But a scenario could see 5.6 in the medium term
27th March: The Dow has broken some key resistances but there are more resistances nearby. The most persuasively bullish chart is the third chart. This shows an optimistic upside of around 13,700. The Nasdaq is trapped in a range. Semiconductors might soon rebound.
Current Prediction
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: double bottom points to 11,400
Dow long term: reverse head and shoulders (weekly) points to 14,000 - not yet confirmed
Nasdaq medium term: none
Nasdaq long term: reverse head and shoulders (daily and weekly) points to 3,200, confirmed above 2,450 on the weekly chart.
17th March: The Dow has broken a strong resistance and is now facing another strong resistance on the long term daily chart. The weekly chart gives a more unambiguously bullish picture. The Nasdaq is trapped in a range. But there are many Nasdaq stocks in the process of bottoming, making this index likely to be the best performer of the year.
Current Prediction
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: double bottom points to 11,400
Dow long term: reverse head and shoulders (weekly) points to 14,000 - not yet confirmed
Nasdaq medium term: none
Nasdaq long term: reverse head and shoulders (daily and weekly) points to 3,200, confirmed above 2,450 on the weekly chart.
S&P 500 medium term: none
S&P 500 long term: none
Long Bond: fall back to 4.4 quite likely in the short term. But a scenario could see 5.6 in the medium term.
13th March: The Dow made a nice little short term breakout. But the long term resistance at 11,100 and 11,200 on the daily and weekly charts are the major obstacles to overcome for the index. The Nasdaq is sitting on good support, but a failure of support could see a downside of 2,200. The Semiconductor Index SOXX has made a little top, which could spell more downside for that sector and the Nasdaq.
Current Prediction
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: double bottom points to 11,400
Dow long term: reverse head and shoulders (weekly) points to 14,000 - not yet confirmed
Nasdaq medium term: none
Nasdaq long term: reverse head and shoulders (daily and weekly) points to 3,200, confirmed above 2,450 on the weekly chart.
S&P 500 medium term: none
S&P 500 long term: none
Long Bond: fall back to 4.4 quite likely in the short term. But a scenario could see 5.6 in the medium term.
6th March: The Dow target of 11,300 or perhaps 11,400, is still valid. But there is a resistance of longer term than the pattern pointing to 11,300. Until the resistance passes, the target of 11,300 is questionable. However, there is good reason to hope for a breakout while the yellow support in the first chart holds. The Nasdaq is still looking healthy. The long term weekly charts for both the Dow and the Nasdaq are both encouraging.
Current Prediction
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: double bottom points to 11,400
Dow long term: reverse head and shoulders (weekly) points to 14,000 - not yet confirmed
Nasdaq medium term: none
Nasdaq long term: reverse head and shoulders (daily and weekly) points to 3,200, confirmed above 2,450 on the weekly chart.
S&P 500 medium term: none
S&P 500 long term: none
Long Bond: fall back to 4.4 quite likely in the short term. But a scenario could see 5.6 in the medium term.
27th February: The Dow is testing a new long term resistance. The Nasdaq is consolidating comfortably in a wedge, the breakout from which should be bullish. Many long term bottoming scenarios for tech stocks and blue chips such as Coca Cola, GE, and Bristol Myers.
Current Prediction
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: double bottom points to 11,400
Dow long term: reverse head and shoulders (weekly) points to 14,000 - not yet confirmed
Nasdaq medium term: none
Nasdaq long term: reverse head and shoulders (daily and weekly) points to 3,200, confirmed above 2,450 on the weekly chart.
S&P 500 medium term: none
S&P 500 long term: none
Long Bond: fall back to 4.4 quite likely in the short term. But a scenario could see 5.6 in the medium term.
20th February: Confusing picture as the Dow has broken one good long term resistance on the daily chart, but is trapped by another. The weekly chart, on the other hand, is far clearer and shows a nice breakout from a long term resistance. I find that the weekly chart is usually a leading indicator for the daily chart. If this is the case with the Dow, we can expect more upside. The Nasdaq is testing a short term wedge resistance. It needs a boost upside. Interesting communications stocks Verizon and Sprint.Current Prediction
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: double bottom points to 11,400
Dow long term: none
Nasdaq medium term: none
Nasdaq long term: reverse head and shoulders (daily and weekly) points to 3,200
S&P 500 medium term: none
S&P 500 long term: none
Long Bond: fall back to 4.4 quite likely in the short term. But a scenario could see 5.6 in the medium term.
13th February: Dow is still teasing. A close above 11,100 would be a first signal that the Dow is about to enter a long term bullish trend. Some joy from Dow components DD and GE. DD has made a nice bottom and GE has repaired a failed support. The GE failed support during the week was particularly alarming, suggesting that the stock was about to drop at least another 20%. No doubt, if this were to happen, the Dow would tumble down with it. But surprise, surprise! Next day GE recovered. If it makes a bottom, like Dupont has made, there will be more fuel for the bullish fire.
Tech stocks are making a comeback. Take a look at T, CY, IDTI, ARRS and VZ below. All have made persuasive long term breakouts with good volume.
Current Prediction
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: double bottom points to 11,400 - questionable
Dow long term: none
Nasdaq medium term: none
Nasdaq long term: reverse head and shoulders (daily and weekly) points to 3,200
S&P 500 medium term: none
S&P 500 long term: none
Long Bond: fall back to 4.4 quite likely in the short term. But a scenario could see 5.6 in the medium term.
6th February: The Dow has an important support in the first and second charts at around 10,750. Keep an eye on General Electric which has found good support at the current level. Nasdaq could drop a little more without causing anxiety. The Nasdaq weekly chart shows clear support just above 2,200. Some nice bullish stocks on the Nasdaq.
Current Prediction
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: double bottom points to 11,400 - questionable
Dow long term: none
Nasdaq medium term: none
Nasdaq long term: reverse head and shoulders (daily and weekly) points to 3,200
30th January: The Dow rallied convincingly above the neckline of the bearish top, cancelling the target of 10,400; a good case of the longer term pattern defeating the shorter, opposite trend. The upshot is that we're without a persuasive target. We'll just have to watch and hope that the index breaks out of the confusion zone that exists until around 11,200. The Nasdaq, on the other hand, is rosier, with a clear bullish target, but lacking volume. Cypress Semiconductor and AT&T both have very interesting bullish breakouts. See their charts below.
Current Prediction
Dow short term: triple top points to 10,400 unless cancelled by a close at 10,750 - cancelled
Dow medium term: double bottom points to 11,400 - questionable
Dow long term: none
Nasdaq medium term: none
Nasdaq long term: reverse head and shoulders (daily and weekly) points to 3,200
23rd January: Last Friday's fall cancelled our bullish target of 11,400 and replaced it with a bearish prediction of 10,400, which, itself, would be cancelled if the index rallies to 10,700, or thereabouts on Monday. The Nasdaq's fall can be explained as a normal pullback to the neckline of the breakout from the long term bullish pattern. There are some great patterns amongst semiconductor and communications stocks, many of which were unscathed by Intel's plunge. We'll need another week to get an idea of the direction of the Dow.
Current Prediction
Dow short term: triple top points to 10,400 unless cancelled by a close at 10,750.
Dow medium term: double bottom points to 11,400 - cancelled
Dow long term: none
Nasdaq medium term: none
Nasdaq long term: reverse head and shoulders (daily and weekly) points to 3,200
S&P 500 medium term: none
S&P 500 long term: none
Long Bond: fall back to 4.4 quite likely in the short term. But a scenario could see 5.6 in the medium term.
9th January: Dow is now facing a big test. If it can escape its current range, there is a good chance that it will break the next obstacle at 11,200. If that happens, chances are we will see 14,000 in the next year or two. The Nasdaq has made a clear breakout from a long term bottom. Tech stocks and pharmaceuticals are making persuasive bottoming signs.
Current Prediction
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: double bottom points to 11,400
Dow long term: none
Nasdaq medium term: none
Nasdaq long term: reverse head and shoulders (daily and weekly) points to 3,200
S&P 500 medium term: none
S&P 500 long term: none
Long Bond: fall back to 4.4 quite likely in the short term. But a scenario could see 5.6 in the medium term.
200524th December: The Dow is treading water in a narrow range. The Nasdaq is teasing us with a little top that broke out and then cancelled. Lots of interesting stocks to watch, especially in the Pharmaceuticals sector and some tech stocks.
Current Prediction
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: double bottom points to 11,400
Dow long term: none
Nasdaq medium term: none
Nasdaq long term: reverse head and shoulders (daily and weekly) points to 3,200
S&P 500 medium term: none
S&P 500 long term: none
Long Bond: fall back to 4.4 quite likely in the short term. But a scenario could see 5.6 in the medium term.
19th December: The Dow is trapped in a range. We need to see a breakout from the resistance at 11,000 in order to confident of the next stage of the expected rally. Nasdaq is making a short term topping pattern. But that could be a little tease without much significance. Interesting stock action from several tech stocks, Coca Cola and the Pharmaceuticals ETF, PPH.
Current Prediction
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: double bottom points to 11,400
Dow long term: none
Nasdaq medium term: none
Nasdaq long term: reverse head and shoulders (daily and weekly) points to 3,200
S&P 500 medium term: none
S&P 500 long term: none
Long Bond: none, but a scenario could see rates go to 5.6%
12th December: The Dow is still safely on course to break the 11,000 barrier provided it doesn't fall much below 10,650. Nasdaq is still looking good. Some nice bottoming scenarios in the stock charts below.
Current Prediction
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: double bottom points to 11,400
Dow long term: none
Nasdaq medium term: none
Nasdaq long term: reverse head and shoulders (daily and weekly) points to 3,200
S&P 500 medium term: none
S&P 500 long term: none
Long Bond: none, but a scenario could see rates go to 5.6%
5th December: A breakout from the 11,000 level should give an easy run to 11,200 for the Dow. Thereafter, there will be medium term resistance at around 11,300. A fall back to 10,700 would not cause alarm. A breakout from the resistance at 11,3000 would give a tentative long term target of 14,000. But there's plenty of time to talk about that.
Current Prediction
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: double bottom points to 11,400
Dow long term: none
Nasdaq medium term: none
Nasdaq long term: reverse head and shoulders (daily and weekly) points to 3,200
S&P 500 medium term: none
S&P 500 long term: none
Long Bond: none, but a scenario could see rates go to 5.6%
28th November: US markets are looking bullish. The Dow has a target of 11,400, at which point many resistances will have broken, opening the way for a rally to 14,000. The Nasdaq has broken out of a well-formed reverse head and shoulders pattern. However, volume is not sufficient for a confident target. Resistance at 2,500 should thus be a considerable obstacle.
Current Prediction
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: double bottom points to 11,400
Dow long term: none
Nasdaq medium term: none
Nasdaq long term: reverse head and shoulders (daily and weekly) points to 3,200
S&P 500 medium term: none
S&P 500 long term: none
Long Bond: none, but a scenario could see rates go to 5.6%
28th November: US markets are looking bullish. The Dow has a target of 11,400, at which point many resistances will have broken, opening the way for a rally to 14,000. The Nasdaq has broken out of a well-formed reverse head and shoulders pattern. However, volume is not sufficient for a confident target. Resistance at 2,500 should thus be a considerable obstacle.
Current Prediction
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: double bottom points to 11,400
Dow long term: none
Nasdaq medium term: none
Nasdaq long term: reverse head and shoulders (daily and weekly) points to 3,200
S&P 500 medium term: none
S&P 500 long term: none
Long Bond: none, but a scenario could see rates go to 5.6%
21st November: Both the Dow and the Nasdaq have broken out from bottoms, suggesting the continuation of the current bullish trends. Some more weeks would be required to confirm the breakouts. But the outlook is decidedly bullish at present.
Current Prediction
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: double bottom points to 11,400
Dow long term: none
Nasdaq medium term: none
Nasdaq long term: reverse head and shoulders (weekly) points to 3,170
S&P 500 medium term: none
S&P 500 long term: none
Long Bond: none, but a scenario could see rates go to 5.6%
14th November: Good chance for a bullish breakout for both the Nasdaq and the Dow. Many stocks appear to be bottoming. A breakout above 10,700 for the Dow would give a target of 11,300, which could give a further target of 14,500, or somewhere around there.
Current Prediction
Dow short term: double top points to 10,000 - cancelled
Dow medium term: none
Dow long term: none
Nasdaq medium term: double top points to 2,000 - cancelled
Nasdaq long term: none
7th November: Both the Dow and the Nasdaq have taken on a bullish tone in the last week. Lets see if it lasts till next week. The big test will be at 10,700 for the Dow. If we see a breakout from the pattern in the second chart, there is good reason to believe that the Dow will break long term resistance and start a new bull run.
Current Prediction
Dow short term: double top points to 10,000 - cancelled
Dow medium term: none
Dow long term: none
Nasdaq medium term: double top points to 2,000
Nasdaq long term: none
S&P 500 medium term: double top points to 1,150
S&P 500 long term: none
Long Bond: none
31st October: Good support for the Dow and the Nasdaq. But there are still dangers for both indices if the current support fails. The S&P gives a more bullish picture. The chart for the S&P is unequivocally bullish.
Current Prediction
Dow short term: double top points to 10,000 - confirmed if support at around 10,200 breaks
Dow medium term: none
Dow long term: none
Nasdaq medium term: double top points to 2,000
Nasdaq long term: none
S&P 500 medium term: double top points to 1,150
17th October: The second chart shows the Dow well supported. But there are bearish targets if that support breaks. Most likely, the Dow would fall below 10,000 and test the region of 9,800. The S&P is looking decidedly bearish and the Nasdaq has three possible bottoming levels. Only a rally above 11,000 for the Dow would chase away the bear blues.
Current Prediction
Dow short term: double top points to 10,000 - confirmed if support at around 10,200 breaks
Dow medium term: none
Dow long term: none
Nasdaq medium term: double top points to 2,000
Nasdaq long term: none
S&P 500 medium term: double top points to 1,150 - cancelled
S&P 500 long term: none
Long Bond: none
10th October: The Dow could be heading for a bit of medium term weakness. But the strong volume over the course of this year suggests that the index is not topping. The Nasdaq also looks like it could be in for a few months of weakness. But Microsoft is well supported.
26th September: The Dow is on good support. But it needs to break 11,000 before we can get excited about long term bullish prospects. The Nasdaq has broken a medium term support and could fall to 2,000. But not all Nasdaq stocks are bearish in the short term.
19th September: Record volume with the Dow gives hope for a breakout from the long term resistance in the second chart. A close at 11,000 would do the trick. A close at 10,300 would silence these hopes.
On the other hand, volume for the Nasdaq is not persuasive, despite the fact that the index is close to breakout from a long term bottom. Despite this fact, many Nasdaq stocks are looking very interesting, with Intel making a huge reversal pattern and being close to long term support. Something might be brewing.
12th September: Both the Dow and the Nasdaq are ripe for breakout from long term resistance. Volume is good in the case of the Dow. Nasdaq volume is not impressive.
5th September: The support in the second chart is still the most important indicator for the Dow. Good supports nearby for Nasdaq. Interesting stock charts : Dupont and Motorola.
Current Prediction
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: none
Dow long term: none
Nasdaq medium term: none
Nasdaq long term: none
S&P 500 medium term: none
S&P 500 long term: reverse head and shoulders pointing to 1,550 - questionable
Long Bond: none
29th August: Dow should find support at around 10,250, if not higher. Nasdaq has good support at around 2,000.
Check out the stock picks below. Very nice double bottom potential for IDTI. Thanks Changjen!22nd August: The Dow is well supported on a long term support. I wouldn't be surprised if it broke out from long term resistance at around 11,100 in a month or two. As for the Nasdaq, it looks like it is in short term retreat, with Intel having failed a medium term support.
Current Prediction
Dow short term: double top points to 10,430 - cancelled
8th August:The Dow has made a short term top. But long term support is not far away. The Nasdaq has broken, and failed, an important long term resistance, forming the neckline of the long term reversal pattern. But volume is not persuasive for the Nasdaq. On the other hand, Microsoft has broken out of a little bottom, quite convincingly.
Current Prediction
Dow short term: double top points to 10,430
1st August: Heavy volume on the Dow and a turn on good support give hope that the Dow will soon break out from the resistances from 11,000 to 11,400. Nasdaq pattern is fine. But volume isn't explosive, like that of the Dow
25th July: Still waiting for a breakout at 11,000 for the Dow and around 2,300 for the Nasdaq.
20th July:Very high volume with the Dow suggests that a breakout from the strong resistance at 11,000 could be about to happen.
Current Prediction
Dow short term: double top points to 10,200
11th July: The Dow is sitting on a good support. Volume is still good. Otherwise, it's still a matter or waiting.
Current Prediction
Dow short term: double top points to 10,200
Dow medium term: none
Dow long term: none
Nasdaq medium term: none
Nasdaq long term: none
S&P 500 medium term: none
S&P 500 long term: reverse head and shoulders pointing to 1,550 - questionable
Long Bond: none
27th June: Dow volume picking up nicely, giving hope for a breakout from resistance at 11,000. Nasdaq looking bearish in the medium term.
Current Prediction
Dow short term: double top points to 10,200
20th June: The Dow has a little short term pattern that points to around 11,100. That would coincide with the neckline of our long term reverse head and shoulders pattern. Breakout from that level would free the Dow to rally to the upper 13,000 level. Volume for the Dow is encouraging. It's been six years since the Dow made a new high. Might be time for a breakout soon.
6th June: All three indices are looking good. But the Dow is looking most promising with a record average volume of 2 billion shares over a 50 day period.
21st May: Bullish indicators from both the Dow and the Nasdaq. The Dow is making an interesting reverse head and shoulders pattern and volume is building up nicely. The Nasdaq is also making a long term reversal pattern, albeit that the the volume for the market is not as high as I would prefer to see. The S&P has remained bullish all along.
Current Prediction
Dow short term: double top points to 9,750 - cancelled
Dow medium term: none
Dow long term: none
Nasdaq medium term: double top points to 1,800 -cancelled
Nasdaq long term: none
S&P 500 medium term: double top points to 1,100 - cancelled
S&P 500 long term: reverse head and shoulders pointing to 1,550 - questionable
Long Bond: none
16th May: The Dow has a top pointing to 9,700. But the build up of volume in the second chart is more indicative of a bull market, than of a top. The Nasdaq is also subject to ambiguity.
Dow short term: double top points to 9,750
Dow medium term: none
Dow long term: none
Nasdaq medium term: double top points to 1,800
Nasdaq long term: none
S&P 500 medium term: double top points to 1,100
S&P 500 long term: reverse head and shoulders pointing to 1,550 - questionable
Long Bond: none
25th April: A modest support in the second chart is all that saves the Dow from its target of around 9,700. The Nasdaq is likely to fall to1,800 unless there is a sharp rebound in the next week or two. But the long term outlook for the Nasdaq is hopeful. Increasing volume for the Dow, in the last few weeks, is potentially bullish.
Dow short term: double top points to 9,750
Dow medium term: none
Dow long term: none
Nasdaq medium term: double top points to 1,800
Nasdaq long term: none
S&P 500 medium term: double top points to 1,100
S&P 500 long term: reverse head and shoulders pointing to 1,550 - questionable
Long Bond: none
18th April: Dow is likely to fall to 9,7u50. Nasdaq likely to hit 1,800.
Dow short term: double top points to 9,750
Dow medium term: triple bottom pointing to 11,200 - cancelled
Dow long term: none
Nasdaq medium term: double top points to 1,800
Nasdaq long term: none
S&P 500 medium term: double top points to 1,100
S&P 500 long term: reverse head and shoulders pointing to 1,550 - questionable
11th April: Not much change with the Dow. Nasdaq is still testing support at around 1,980. There is still hope that both indices will breakout upside. S&P is still looking strong.
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: triple bottom pointing to 11,200 - questionable due to failure of support
Dow long term: none
Nasdaq medium term: none
Nasdaq long term: none
S&P 500 medium term: none
S&P 500 long term: reverse head and shoulders pointing to 1,550
Long Bond: none
4th April: US markets could go either way. The Dow has an important support at 10,300. Below that level, I guess we would have to presume a medium bear with target in the low 9,000's. But there is still hope, as the Dow is now well supported. The Nasdaq is still well supported and has a persuasive reversal scenario for the long term chart. But nothing is confirmed. We can only go week by week.
21st March: The Dow has failed an important support, rendering the prediction of 11,200 doubtful. The Nasdaq is close to good support and the S& P is still bullish.
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: triple bottom pointing to 11,200 - questionable due to failure of support
Dow long term: none
Nasdaq medium term: none
Nasdaq long term: none
S&P 500 medium term: none
S&P 500 long term: reverse head and shoulders pointing to 1,550
14th March: Support for both the Dow and the Nasdaq nearby.
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: triple bottom pointing to 11,200 - confirmed
8th March: Dow is heading for 11,200. Two strong resistances broken. Strong resistance at 11,500.
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: triple bottom pointing to 11,200 - confirmed
21st February: Big resistance at 10,900. If that breaks, 11,200 target is likely and next resistance is at 11,500.
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: triple bottom pointing to 11,200 - confirmed
Dow long term: none
Nasdaq medium term: none
Nasdaq long term: none
S&P 500 medium term: none
S&P 500 long term: reverse head and shoulders pointing to 1,550
21st February: Big resistance at 10,900. If that breaks, 11,200 target is likely and next resistance is at 11,500.
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: triple bottom pointing to 11,200 - confirmed
Dow long term: none
Nasdaq medium term: none
Nasdaq long term: none
S&P 500 medium term: none
S&P 500 long term: reverse head and shoulders pointing to 1,550
14th February: The Dow is testing strong resistance. The Nasdaq is testing the neckline of a long term reversal pattern. The 30 year long bond is on support.
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: triple bottom pointing to 11,200 - confirmed
Dow long term: none
Nasdaq medium term: none
Nasdaq long term: none
S&P 500 medium term: none
S&P 500 long term: reverse head and shoulders pointing to 1,550
31st January: Dow is testing support. If it falls much lower, the target of 11,200 will be cancelled. Nasdaq has a bottom scenario and S&P looks like it is confirming a good bottom. Volume for the Dow is not sufficient to inspire confidence.
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: triple bottom pointing to 11,200 - confirmed
Dow long term: none
Nasdaq medium term: none
Nasdaq long term: none
S&P 500 medium term: none
S&P 500 long term: reverse head and shoulders pointing to 1,550
Long Bond: none
17th January: Dow still has an upside of around 11,200, provided the index doesn't fall below 10,400. Nasdaq could be bottoming. But volume is not persuasive.
10th January: The third chart shows the double resistance facing the Dow at present. Nasdaq bottom would break out at around 2,300. If that happens, we should expect an upside of 3,400.
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: triple bottom pointing to 11,050 - confirmed
Dow long term: none
Nasdaq medium term: none
Nasdaq long term: none
S&P 500 medium term: none
S&P 500 long term: reverse head and shoulders pointing to 1,550
Long Bond: none
200420th December: Volume picked up for the Dow last week, increasing chances for the medium term target. But there is still strong resistance to overcome in both the medium and short term charts. Nasdaq volume is looking a little perkier too.
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: triple bottom pointing to 11,050 - confirmed
Dow long term: none
Nasdaq medium term: none
Nasdaq long term: none
S&P 500 medium term: none
S&P 500 long term: reverse head and shoulders pointing to 1,550
Long Bond: none
13th December: Medium term outlook is still bullish for the Dow provided we don't see a fall below the 10,400 level.
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: triple bottom pointing to 11,050 - confirmed
Dow long term: none
Nasdaq medium term: none
Nasdaq long term: none
S&P 500 medium term: none
S&P 500 long term: reverse head and shoulders pointing to 1,550
Long Bond: none
6th December: Dow is testing long term resistance (third chart). But the medium term Dow chart has a prediction of 11,000. Chances are therefore good that we will see a breakout from the long term resistance. The S&P also has a confirmed bullish target. The Nasdaq has a pretty bottom pattern. But volume is not impressive.
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: triple bottom pointing to 11,050 - confirmed
Dow long term: none
Nasdaq medium term: none
Nasdaq long term: none
S&P 500 medium term: none
S&P 500 long term: reverse head and shoulders pointing to 1,550
20th November: Support at 10,350 is important for the Dow. Nasdaq is making a nice long term bottom. But volume is inadequate to inspire confidence.
Dow short term: double top pointing to 9,550 - cancelled
Dow medium term: triple bottom pointing to 11,050 - not yet confirmed
Dow long term: none
Nasdaq medium term: none
Nasdaq long term: none
S&P 500 medium term: none
S&P 500 long term: reverse head and shoulders pointing to 1,550
Long Bond: none
15th November: The S&P has made a little bottom. Target is 1,550, not yet confirmed, but looks fairly good. The Dow has broken a nice medium term bottom, but there are strong resistances at the current level and not far away. A close at 10,900 on strong volume would be a signal of strength. The Nasdaq is also making bottoming noises. But volume is not persuasive.
Dow short term: double top pointing to 9,550 - cancelled
Dow medium term: triple bottom pointing to 11,050 - not yet confirmed
Dow long term: none
Nasdaq medium term: none
Nasdaq long term: none
S&P 500 medium term: none
S&P 500 long term: reverse head and shoulders pointing to 1,550
Long Bond: none
25th October: Dow is falling to target.
Dow short term: double top pointing to 9,550
Dow medium term: none
Dow long term: none
Nasdaq medium term: none
Nasdaq long term: none
S&P 500 medium term: none
S&P 500 long term: none
18th October: Dow has made a little top pointing to arround 9,550.
Dow short term: double top pointing to 9,550
11th October: Nasdaq has turned on an important medium term resistance, showing that there is still a danger of a top forming and a plunge to 1,400.
4th October: Dow and Nasdaq are testing strong resistances. If the Nasdaq resistance breaks, danger of a long term top will diminish. Otherwise, nothing much to go on.
20th September: The head and shoulders top in the Nasdaq chart is tentatively cancelled. No significant change in the other indices.
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: none
Dow long term: none
Nasdaq medium term: head and shoulders top points to 1,692 (log), 1,664 (arithmetic) - cancelled
Nasdaq long term: none
S&P 500 medium term: none
S&P 500 long term: none
Long Bond: none
4th September: Nothing exciting. The Nasdaq is still under the influence of a bearish top.
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: none
Dow long term: none
Nasdaq medium term: head and shoulders top points to 1,692 (log), 1,664 (arithmetic) - still valid
Nasdaq long term: none
30th August: A short term wedge is bearish for the Dow. No change for the other indices.
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: none
Dow long term: none
Nasdaq medium term: head and shoulders top points to 1,692 (log), 1,664 (arithmetic) - still valid
Nasdaq long term: none
23rd August: The tops for the Dow and the S&P are cancelled. But the bull still threatens, at least until the Dow passes above 10,400. The target for the Nasdaq is still valid.
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: double top points to 9,200 (log), 9,144 (arithmetic) - cancelled
Dow long term: none
Nasdaq medium term: head and shoulders top points to 1,692 (log), 1,664 (arithmetic)
Nasdaq long term: none
S&P 500 medium term: double top points to 1,018 (log), 1,014 (arithmetic) - cancelled
S&P 500 long term: none
Long Bond: none
2nd August: The Nasdaq has made a little top pointing to the 1,640 region. Dow and S&P look toppy.
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: none
Dow long term: none
Nasdaq medium term: head and shoulders top points to 1,692 (log), 1,664 (arithmetic)
26th July: Tops scenarios for all markets. The Nasdaq would likely fall to 1,600 if it were to close at 1,800 or thereabouts. Such a fall could complete a long term reverse head and shoulders pattern, perhaps by the second quarter of next year. This is all just speculation at this point.
28th June: Nothing to go on other than a few scenarios and a few important supports and resistances, none of which is being tested.
31st May: A top in the Dow index has been cancelled. But nothing much other than that to report. Major resistance is at around the 11,000 mark. A breakout from that resistance on strong volume would be cause for excitement. Similarly, Nasdaq resistance would be at around 2,200.
10th May: Channel supports broken in the Dow and the Nasdaq charts. But the Dow needs to fall below 10,000 to suggest the start of a downtrend.
3rd May: Indices could be topping. But we need to wait a few more days or weeks.
12th April: Nothing exciting for the indices. A top for the long bond has been cancelled, removing the prospect of lowering of rates.
5th April: Bottoming scenarios for the Dow and the Nasdaq could see these indices drop 10 to 15% in the medium term. Other than that, there is nothing much to go on
15th March: The Dow broke a small double top and fell almost to target last week. There are supports as low as 8,400. But nothing to indicate that the index should fall so far.8th March: The Dow weekly chart shows a positive scenario with an upside of nearly 14,000. But that is not a prediction. See the weekly chart below. The 30 year T-bond yield has broken a top pointing to 4.1.
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: none
Dow long term: none
Nasdaq short term: none
Nasdaq long term: double bottom points to 2,850 - not yet confirmed
S&P 500 medium term: none
1st March: No significant change: both the Dow and the Nasdaq are on important supports.
23rd February: Further development of the short term top and slightly lower volume for the Dow bode weakness in the short term.
16th February: A top to watch out for in the Dow. Nasdaq needs to break 2,200 in order to look bullish.
9th February: Dow is testing resistance (see the second chart) and the Nasdaq is testing support (see the third chart).
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: triple bottom points to 10,750 - good as done
Dow long term: none
Nasdaq short term: none
Nasdaq long term: double bottom points to 2,850 - not yet confirmed
26th January: No substantial changes to report. Take a look at the weekly Nasdaq chart, which suggests that the Nasdaq is bottoming.
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: triple bottom points to 10,750
Dow long term: none
Nasdaq short term: none
Nasdaq long term: double bottom points to 2,850 - not yet confirmed
19th January: The Dow is still lumbering along on unimpressive volume. The S & P has reached a target. The Nasdaq volume has improved over the last couple of weeks such that a close above 2,200 would give a fair chance at 2,900.
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: triple bottom points to 10,750
Dow long term: none
Nasdaq short term: none
Nasdaq long term: double bottom points to 2,850 - not yet confirmed
S&P 500 medium term: triple bottom points to 1,140 - done
S&P 500 long term: none
Long Bond: none
12th January: The Dow picked up a bit of volume last week and is now testing long term resistance. The Nasdaq is making bottoming signals but volume is not impressive.
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: triple bottom points to 10,750
Dow long term: none
Nasdaq short term: none
Nasdaq long term: double bottom points to 2,850 - not yet confirmed
S&P 500 medium term: triple bottom points to 1,140 - done
S&P 500 long term: none
Long Bond: none
200329th December: The Dow is moving to the target of our questionable triple bottom. But the movement is not impressive as volume is still flat.
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: triple bottom points to 10,750 - questionable
Dow long term: none
Nasdaq short term: none
Nasdaq medium term: none
S&P 500 medium term: triple bottom points to 1,140
1st December: There is still a short term topping danger. However, the weekly chart is unambiguously bullish. A few blue and red chips have turned on neckline supports, tending to suggest that their bullish targets are valid and that the short term falling trend is finished.
Current prediction
Short term: none
Medium term: none
Long term: 1. double bottom (daily) pointing to 15,000 - confirmed if the index closes above 12,600
2. double bottom (weekly) ponting to 15,000 - confirmed17th November: A possible top for the Dow, but short term at most. Otherwise, nothing interesting to report
10th November: No substantial change. We are waiting for the Dow to test resistance at the 10,300 to 10,500 range. That could take a while, given the current slow trend for the index. Nasdaq is testing resistance at 2,000.
27th October: Nothing exciting: the Dow has turned on a channel resistance.
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: triple bottom points to 10,750 - questionable
Dow long term: none
Nasdaq short term: none
Nasdaq medium term: none
S&P 500 medium term: triple bottom points to 1,140
13th October: No change. The Dow is still lumbering along in a gently rising channel with unremarkable volume. The Nasdaq has a steeper channel. But volume is similarly unremarkable. No excitement is foreseeable.
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: triple bottom points to 10,750 - questionable
6th October: Still nothing exciting to report. The Dow is moving up lazily in a rising channel. The Nasdaq is hovering under resistance. Volume for both index is still lacklustre.
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: triple bottom points to 10,750 - questionable
Dow long term: none
Nasdaq short term: none
Nasdaq medium term: none
S&P 500 medium term: triple bottom points to 1,140
22nd September: No clear direction. Dow is drifting up, not due to the triple bottom. Nasdaq has almost reached medium term target and is giving no clues.
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: triple bottom points to 10,750 - questionable
Dow long term:
1. head and shoulders top (daily) points to 5,500 (log), 4,350 (arithmetic) - questionable
2. head and shoulders top (weekly) points to 5,770 (log), 4,730 (arithmetic) -questionableNasdaq short term: none
Nasdaq medium term: reverse head and shoulders points to 1,980 -almost done
S&P 500 medium term: triple bottom points to 1,140
S&P 500 long term: none
15th September: No significant change from last week. The Dow is still lacking oomph and the Nasdaq is likely to inch up target of 1,950.
Dow short term: none
Dow medium term: triple bottom points to 10,750 - questionable
Dow long term:
1. head and shoulders top (daily) points to 5,500 (log), 4,350 (arithmetic) - questionable
2. head and shoulders top (weekly) points to 5,770 (log), 4,730 (arithmetic) -questionableNasdaq short term: none
Nasdaq medium term: reverse head and shoulders points to 1,980
S&P 500 medium term: triple bottom points to 1,140
S&P 500 long term: none
8th September: Dow moving towards bullish target, Nasdaq should reach its tar