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China and Hongkong

Index could be bottoming if 24,700 support holds

This will be the last full update until June 26. For important chart updates before that date, see the home page.

12th May: A bottom in the first chart would mark an end to the bear trend provided the index stays above the support at around 24,700. If the index falls much below this support, we would more likely be looking at a longer bottom, as suggested by the second chart.

Current prediction

Follow this link to see the review of HSI historical tops as published 15th October 2007




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Charts current to 9th  May, except where otherwise indicated


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If support in green holds at around 24,700 we can say that the index has bottomed.

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If the support in the chart above fails, we would be looking at a longer period of bottoming.
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Good support at the current level. The big picture is still bullish, as the green scenario suggests.


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Chart current to 30th April.
PE last month ended just above 15: low enough for a bottom. Good support is around the 12 level.

Source is hsi.com.



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Good long term support in orange and a thick band of horizontal support in green, forming the neckline of a long term double bottom. The recent bear trend can be seen as a mere pullback to this long term bottom. A reversal at the current level would be quite consistent with this scenario.



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Possible bottoming scenario on the black support at 3,200.

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Good channel since 2003.

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Top scenario.

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Top in green suggests a fall back to 43. The support in orange makes the target questionable. But 43 is a good chance.

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Slow bull since 2003. Good support at 68.

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Bullish channel since 2003.

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Bottoming scenario in clear bullish channel.

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Another guess at a bottom, as shown in green, which is credible if the stock fails to break the pink resistance.

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