History of Bombay Sensitive  Index

2009

8th June: Much the same comment as last week: The index has done our target of 13,000. It's anyone's guess what it will do next.

1st June: The index has done our target of 13,000. It's anyone's guess what it will do next.

Current target

Medium term: double bottom points to 13,000 - done

Long  term: none

2nd May: The index has broken out of a nice bottom, as shown in the first chart. This is a tentative sign that the bear trend has reversed into bull.

Current target

Medium term: double bottom points to 13,000

Long  term: none

20th April: The index has broken out of a nice bottom, as shown in the first chart. This is a tentative sign that the bear trend has reversed into bull.

Current target

Medium term: double bottom points to 13,000

Long  term: head and shoulders top point to 7,450( log); 3,950 (arithmetic)

13th April: Good chance for bottoming. A close at the 11,000 or a little higher will break out from the bottom in the first chart, giving a good chance of pronouncing an end to the bear market.

Current target

Short term: none

Long  term: head and shoulders top point to 7,450( log); 3,950 (arithmetic)

16th March: The index has broken downside from the little triangle in first chart. Target is 6,200. Good support in the weekly chart is at 5,600.

Current target

Short term: symmetrical triangle pointing to 6,200

Long  term: head and shoulders top point to 7,450( log); 3,950 (arithmetic)

9th March: The index has broken downside from the little triangle in first chart. Target is 6,200. Good support in the weekly chart is at 5,600.

2nd March: No change from the outlook from the past few weeks: Target of 7,500 is still outstanding. But the index has almost reached target, so bottoming now would not be a big surprise. A new chart shows a 12 year regression line with support at 6,000. If the index fell to this level it would have a good chance of bottoming here.

Current target

Long  term: head and shoulders top point to 7,450( log); 3,950 (arithmetic)

23rd February:No change from the outlook from the past few weeks:Target of 7,500 is still outstanding. But the index has almost reached target, so bottoming now would not be a big surprise.

2nd February: Target of 7,500 is still outstanding. But the index has almost reached target, so bottoming now would not be a big surprise.

Current target

Long  term: head and shoulders top point to 7,450( log); 3,950 (arithmetic)

2nd February: A short term bottom has no long term significance (first chart). Target of 7,500 is still the most likely outcome.

Current target

Long  term: head and shoulders top point to 7,450( log); 3,950 (arithmetic)



2008
22nd December: A short term bottom has no long term significance (first chart). Target of 7,500 is still the most likely outcome. Currency has pulled back to the neckline. A turn would confirm the fall to 55.

Current target

Long  term: head and shoulders top point to 7,450( log); 3,950 (arithmetic)

23rd November: The index is moving to target.

Current target

Long  term: head and shoulders top point to 7,450( log); 3,950 (arithmetic)

20th October: The top pointing to 7,500 has broken out. It's not confirmed. But it's fairly likely.

Current target

Long  term: head and shoulders top point to 7,450( log); 3,950 (arithmetic)

10th October: The top pointing to 7,500 has broken out. It's not confirmed. But it's fairly likely.

6th October: The index is now making a head and shoulders top pattern. Breakout could see a fall to 7,500 or thereabouts. At any event, breakout would suggest a continuation of the current bear trend.

Current prediction:

Medium term: double top points to 10,500 (log); 8,800 (arithmetic)

20th September: The index turned on support at 12,500. Let's see if it holds.

Current prediction:

Medium term: double top points to 10,500 (log); 8,800 (arithmetic)

15th September: The index has turned on a strong resistance. There is a good chance now that it will drop to resistance at either 12,700 or 12,500 in the short term.

Current prediction:

Medium term: double top points to 10,500 (log); 8,800 (arithmetic)

18th August: The index turned has rallied a bit on long term support. But there is still nothing of significance to report. Support at around 13,000 is significant.

4th August: The index turned on long term support in the first chart. But the support on the log chart (second below) has clearly failed. The interesting area of support is between 12,500 to 12,600. Let's see what happens.

28th July: The index turned on long term support in the first chart. But the support on the log chart (second below) has clearly failed. The interesting area of support is between 12,500 to 12,600. Let's see what happens.

21st July: The index has failed its long term support, putting in doubt the long term bullish trend. But there is no sign of a top yet. According to theory, the index is still in a bullish trend until there is a clear reversal. Next major support is at 12,600.

14th July: The index has failed its long term support, putting in doubt the long term bullish trend. But there is no sign of a top yet. According to theory, the index is still in a bullish trend until there is a clear reversal. Next major support is at 12,600.

7th July: The index has failed its long term support, putting in doubt the long term bullish trend. But there is no sign of a top yet. According to theory, the index is still in a bullish trend until there is a clear reversal. Next major support is at 12,600.

30th June: The index has failed its long term support, putting in doubt the long term bullish trend. But there is no sign of a top yet. According to theory, the index is still in a bullish trend until there is a clear reversal.

Current prediction:

Currency: double bottom points to 38 - cancelled

12th May: The index has clearly turned on long term support, continuing the bullish trend.

5th May: There is a chance of a turn on the log chart. There is a tiny bottom shown in the first chart. But it's too tiny to be of much significance.

28th April: There is a chance of a turn on the log chart. There is a tiny bottom shown in the first chart. But it's too tiny to be of much significance.

21st April: There is a chance of a turn on the log chart. There is a tiny bottom shown in the first chart. But it's too tiny to be of much significance.

7th April: The index is still supported on the log chart.

31st March: The index could well be support at the current level.

24th March: The index has failed a long term support. There is no topping pattern. But the failure of the long term support is ominous.

10th March: The index is testing a support, as shown in the first chart.

3rd March: The index is well supported by a long term support. There is no reversal pattern to suggest that the long term trend has finished. Currency could weaken over the next few months.

Current prediction:

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency: double bottom points to 38

25th February: The index is well supported by a long term support. There is no reversal pattern to suggest that the long term trend has finished. Currency could weaken over the next few months.

21st January: The first chart shows a small top forming. The second chart shows long term resistance on the log scale. Although there is no sign of a major reversal, it's quite likely that the index will retreat while the rest of the world undergoes its bearish phase.

Current prediction:

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency: double bottom points to 38

14th January: The first chart shows a new high with a short term bullish outlook. The long term resistance is shown in the second chart.

7th January 2008: The first chart shows a new high with a short term bullish outlook. The long term resistance is shown in the second chart.

Current prediction:

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency: double bottom points to 38



2007

3rd December: Nothing much to report. A long term weekly chart shows a possible resistance at 20,000. But it is not confirmed. The short term shows a possible top. But it's only a short term phenomenon and also not confirmed.

Current prediction:

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency: double bottom points to 38

19th November: Nothing much to report. A long term weekly chart shows a possible resistance at 20,000. But it is not confirmed.

12th November: The index has hit resistance at around 20,000. No doubt a psychological barrier.

5th November: The index has hit resistance at around 20,000. No doubt a psychological barrier.

15th October: The index continued its rally last week, after breaking a strong resistance. No resistance to speak of. Nothing more to say other than, 'the trend is bullish'.

15th October: The index continued its rally last week, after breaking a strong resistance. No resistance to speak of. Nothing more to say other than, 'the trend is bullish'.

8th October: The index continued its rally last week, after breaking a strong resistance with a gap. Next resistance is at around 18,500.

Current prediction:

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency: double bottom points to 38

1st October: The index continued its rally last week, after breaking a strong resistance with a gap. Next resistance is at around 18,500.

24th September: The index broke out of a channel resistance. The breakout was marked by a gap. Both of these phenomena are highly bullish and reduce the chance of a top in the near future

17th September: The index shows a topping scenario with neckline at 13,900. Unless the index falls below this level and stays there for a week or two, we may presume that the long term trend is still bullish.

28th August: The index shows two bullish channels in the chart below. There is no sign of a reversal.

Current prediction:

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency: double bottom points to 38

13th August: The index has turned on a resistance at 15,900. There is no sign of a top yet.

6th August: The index has turned on a resistance at 15,900. There is no sign of a top yet.

30th July: The index has turned on a resistance at 15,900. There is no sign of a top yet.

Current prediction:

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency:  double bottom points to 38

23rd July: The index has made a new high. This gives a chance for a new bull phase. Next resistance at around 16,100.

Current prediction:

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency:  double bottom points to 38

16th July: The index has made a new high. This gives a chance for a new bull phase. However, the upside is marginal and there is a short term resistance at 15,000. Anything could happen.

Current prediction:

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency:  double bottom points to 38

9th July: The index has made a new high. This gives a chance for a new bull phase. However, the upside is marginal and there is a short term resistance at 15,000. Anything could happen.

Current prediction:

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency:  double bottom points to 38

25th June: The index is caught in a range, retesting previous high.

Current prediction:

Short term: double bottom points to 14,400 - done.

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency:  double bottom points to 38

18th June: The index has turned after retesting previous high. Still no clear indication of short or medium term direction.

Current prediction:

Short term: double bottom points to 14,400 - done.

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency:  double bottom points to 38

11th June: The index has turned after retesting previous high. Still no clear indication of short or medium term direction.

Current prediction:

Short term: double bottom points to 14,400 - done.

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency:  double bottom points to 38

28th May: The index is supported in the short term and then as far down as 13,200. A retest of the previous high is still likely.

Current prediction:

Short term: double bottom points to 14,400

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency:  double bottom points to 38

21st May: The index is supported in the short term and then as far down as 13,200. A retest of the previous high is still likely.

Current prediction:

Short term: double bottom points to 14,400

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency:  none

14th May: The index is safe above 11,900. If that level fails, there is danger of a long term reversal. Still a good chance of retesting the all-time high.

Current prediction:

Short term: double bottom points to 14,400

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency:  none

23rd April: The index is likely to retest its highs of February.

Current prediction:

Short term: double bottom points to 14,400

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency:  none

2nd April: A medium term top would like see a fall to support at around 11,500, provided we don't see a rally above 13,000.

Current prediction:

Short term: none

Medium term: double top points to 11,500

Long term: none

Currency:  none

26th March: The index has rebounded, almost canceling a top.

12th March: The index has broken out of a double top, not confirmed, pointing to 11,100.

5th March: The index is testing strong resistance in the second chart. A breakout upside would suggest the continuation of the current bull trend.

19th February: The index is testing strong resistance in the second chart. A breakout upside would suggest the continuation of the current bull trend.

12th February: The index is testing strong resistance in the chart below. A breakout upside would suggest the continuation of the current bull trend.

29th January: The index is testing strong resistance in the chart below. A breakout upside would suggest the continuation of the current bull trend. Failure of support at around 13,700 could indicate a reversal of the bullish trend.

22nd January: The index is testing strong resistance in the chart below. A breakout upside would suggest the continuation of the current bull trend. Failure of support at around 13,700 could indicate a reversal of the bullish trend.

15th January: Testing resistance again.

8th January: A turn on resistance and a possible top at the current level.


2006

18th December: The index has turned and broken out of a wedge. We are now alert to a possible short term top, as shown in the first chart.

Current prediction:

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency:  none

11th December: Possible resistances and turning point for the index. But it is a danger to presume the end of a trend before there is good evidence. At present the trend is clearly bullish.

4th December: One long term resistance broken. Another one testing soon.

20th November: A possible long term resistance at the current level. But nothing much to go on.

13th November: Resistance at 13,300 in the first chart.

6th November: Long term resistance approaching in the first chart.

16th October: Still a topping danger as the index has marginally broken resistance in the first chart.

Current prediction:

Short term: reverse head and shoulders points to 13,000

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency:  none

2nd October: The index is retesting previous recent high. Let's see if it passes.
 

Current prediction:

Short term: reverse head and shoulders points to 13,000

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency:  none

25th September: The index is inching its way up to retest the previous high. A fall to 11,900 would be the first indication of a bearish turn.

18th September: Good support in the second chart.

Current prediction:

Short term: reverese head and shoulders points to 13,000

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency:  none

11th September: Remarkably orderly advance in the first chart. The test will be at the previous high, or slightly higher, as the resistance in the second chart demonstrates.

Current prediction:

Short term: reverese head and shoulders points to 13,000

28th August: The index is meandering up in tight channel. Resistance at 12,500.

21st August: The short term chart shows the index hesitating. A failure of 11,300 would indicate a retesting of 10,900.

7th August: A short term bottom and a good channel support in the second chart suggest that the index is about to rally.

17th July: Still in danger of a major reversal to long term bear.

10th July: Nothing exciting to report. A big top scenario still looms. But its breakout could be months away.

3rd July: Danger of a double top. But the index could rally quite a bit further in the short term.

26th June: The index rebounded on a good support. It now needs time to decide whether it is bottoming, or merely consolidating before further falls.

19th June: The index has reached a good support. But no bottom signals yet.

5th June: The index has not found support nor has it bottomed. The short term trend is still down.

22nd May: The index has made a short term top with target of around 10,000 to 10,100. Support below that target is at around 9,300. Nothing suggests that the long term bull trend has reversed.

15th May: The index has turned on a channel resistance shown in the first chart. Support is at around 11,900, or a bit lower.

8th May: The index has broken one resistance and is now heading for resistance at 13,200, or thereabouts.

9th April: The index has met with long term resistance.

27th March: Bull still in control. No sign of a top yet.

17th March: New high. Trend is up. Nothing much more to report.

13th March: Increasing volume last week gives good cause to hope for further gains this week.

6th March: The bull continues. No sign of topping. The trend must be presumed to be up.

27th February: Index is still testing resistance in the first chart. No clear topping signal.

20th February: Resistance in the first chart appears to be turning the index. But there is support nearby. Quite likely another six weeks before we have a clearer indication of medium term direction.

13th February: The index has made a new high, but is testing medium term resistance in the first chart and long term resistance in the second chart.

6th February: Turn on resistance in the first chart suggests short term weakness. But there is otherwise no indication that the bull has lost steam for the medium term.

30th January: All we have is a few resistances - one broken, two still operating.

23rd January: Still testing the resistance in green in the first chart.

9th January: The index is testing resistance. But there is no sign of topping.



2005
24th December: A turn on the resistance in the first chart gives cause for concern. But it's too early to draw conclusions.

19th December: A large top scenario in the first chart might or might not happen. It could take months to resolve the uncertainty. Resistance in the first chart at the current level and then at around 10,000 in the next chart.

5th December: Another new high, but still the danger of a top, as shown in the first chart. Currency is well supported.

5th December:  Another higher high on the weekly chart suggests that the index is not topping. But the daily chart (first chart below) leaves open the possibility that the index is indeed topping.

28th November: The double top scenario in the first chart is a danger facing the index. However, the higher high, most obvious in the weekly chart, would suggest that the index is not yet topping. Uncertainty in this case is best resolved by patience.

Current prediction:

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency:  none

21st November: No change from last week. Volume is still low compared to volume of several weeks and months ago. Danger of a double top at the current level.

14th NovemberThe rally last week, on volume lower than that of the previous week, gives cause for concern. Look out for a top, as suggested in the first chart. On the other hand, a new high would suggest that the bull will keep on moving.

Current prediction:

Short term: double top points to 7,550

7th November A strong rebound on Thursday sets the scene for a possible larger top.

Current prediction:

Short term: double top points to 7,550

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency:  none

31st October: The index has made a short term top. Look  out for a rally on low volume and a new, larger top forming.

Current prediction:

Short term: double top points to 7,550

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency:  none

17th October: The index has hit strong resistance. But there is no sign of topping.

10th October: No sign of topping, but the index has reached resistance on the weekly chart.

26th September: We will either see a top form at the current level, or the index will keep rallying to next resistance at 9,400. Too early to tell now.

19th September: The index is in a strong bull trend with resistance in the mid 9,000 level. Unless we see a top form, we should presume that the trend is up.

12th September: A new high! The bull is still in control, and we may assume the trend to be bullish until we see a topping pattern.

5th September: Possible top in the first chart. But until it breaks, presume the continuation of the current bull trend.

29th August:  Chance of a top forming in the first chart.

8th August: The index has broken its last resistance. It is now a matter of watching volume and looking out for a top. When that might be I cannot guess. The index is in uncharted waters.

1st August: Now testing long term resistance at 7,700.

25th JulyStrong resistance at around 7,700, as shown on the first chart.

20th JulyGood recent volume gives the index a chance to test resistance at around 7,700.

11th July The index has broken long term resistance on the weekly and daily charts. We have no valid target. But the current bullish trend is likely to continue.

Current prediction:

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency:  reverse head and shoulders points to 45.1, perhaps the resistance a bit lower.

27th June:  The index is right on long term resistance in the daily chart and pretty close in the weekly chart. Let's see whether it breaks out.

Current prediction:

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency:  reverse head and shoulders points to 45.1, perhaps the resistance a bit lower.

20th June: The index is retesting its previous high. There are two resistances to overcome: medium and long term.

Current prediction:

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency:  reverse head and shoulders points to 45.1, perhaps the resistance a bit lower.

13th June: The first chart shows the index retesting previous high. If the index breaks above that level, the top scenario in that chart will have lesser chance.

Current prediction:

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency:  reverse head and shoulders points to 45.1, perhaps the resistance a bit lower.

6th June: Nice rallies over the last couple of weeks. But the index is not out of danger until it makes a new high, say, around 7,100.

21st May: Nothing much different from last week.

Current prediction:

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency:  reverse head and shoulders points to 45.1, perhaps the resistance a bit lower.

16th May: Top danger in the first chart but good support on the weekly chart. Keep an eye on the weekly chart. If it breaks, chances are that the index will top.

Current prediction:

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency:  reverse head and shoulders points to 45.1, perhaps the resistance a bit lower.

25th April: Much the same as last week: a top forming. But the top could take a few more weeks to form. Until then, we are left with uncertainty.

18th April: As the headline says, the index is likely to retest 6,100, after having broken a medium term support.

Current prediction:

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency:  reverse head and shoulders points to 45.1, perhaps the resistance a bit lower.

11th April:  Still waiting to see wether a top develops. This could take until May. If we get a top and if it breaks out, we could expect a fall back to 5,000. But there could be a surprise interruption at 6,000. More and if it happens.

4th April:  A chance that the index is topping. Keep an eye out for another rally on substantially lower volume than that of the recent rally to 6,900.

21st March: The index appears to be topping. But this is unlikely due to the strong recent volume. A small top on noticeably weak volume would be the key signal to an impending top.

Current prediction:

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency:  reverse head and shoulders points to 45.1, perhaps the resistance a bit lower.

8th March: The long term weekly chart shows a strong resistance has been met. Time to look out for a top for the market.

Current prediction:

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency:  reverse head and shoulders points to 45.1, perhaps the resistance a bit lower.

21st February: Possible double top in the first chart as the index approaches strong resistance at 6,800 on the weekly chart.

Current prediction:

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency:  reverse head and shoulders points to 45.1, perhaps the resistance a bit lower.

14th February: The medium term chart shows a double top scenario. And the long term weekly chart shows long term resistance approaching at around 6,800.

Current prediction:

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency:  reverse head and shoulders points to 45.1, perhaps the resistance a bit lower.

31st January: The index has broken a major long term resistance at 6,200. Next strong resistance would be at 6,800, then 7,200.

Current prediction:

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency:  reverse head and shoulders points to 45.1, perhaps the resistance a bit lower.

17th January: Despite the falls of the last couple of weeks, there is no indication that the index has topped. Medium term trend must therefore be presumed to be bullish.

10th January: No clear targets for the index, only resistances. The next major resistance on the weekly chart is at around 6,800. The daily chart resistance is around 7,200 or slightly higher.

Current prediction:

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency:  reverse head and shoulders points to 45.1, perhaps the resistance a bit lower.



2004
20th December: 6,500 resistance is still being tested.

Current prediction:

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency:  reverse head and shoulders points to 45.1, perhaps the resistance a bit lower.

13th December: The index is testing a possible resistance at the current level.

Current prediction:

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency:  reverse head and shoulders points to 45.1, perhaps the resistance a bit lower.

6th December: The index has closed above the previous recent high and has broken an important long term resistance, giving a chance at the resistances at around 7,000 on the daily and weekly charts.

Current prediction:

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency:  reverse head and shoulders points to 45.1, perhaps the resistance a bit lower.

15th November: The index appears to be retesting the previous recent high at around 6,200. But volume is not persuasive. Beware a large double top.

Current prediction:

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency:  reverse head and shoulders points to 45.1, perhaps the resistance a bit lower.

25th October: Nothing exciting for the index. Currency could strengthen a little over the next few weeks.

Current prediction:

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency:  reverse head and shoulders points to 45.1, perhaps the resistance a bit lower.

11th October: Nothing clear for the index. Currency could be bottoming.

4th October: The index has broken strong resistance. There is a chance now that we will see a retesting of previous recent high at around 6,200.

4th September: The index is making a medium term bearish pattern. But it is not a pattern of great significance.

30th August: The long term weekly chart shows the significance of the resistance at 5,300

23rd August: Still only supports and resistances. 5,000 looks like a good support.

2nd August: The first chart shows the index breaking out of a double bottom. But the volume in the pattern does not support a bullish prediction and the resistance in the second charts suggests that the progress of the index will be limited.

26th July: The index is making a bottoming pattern. But volume is insufficient to support it. No clear reason to hope for a bottom soon.

12th July: Merely a collection of supports and resistances. No indication of a bottom to the medium term bear trend, which must be presumed to continue until the opposite is established.
28th June: Nothing exciting: just a few supports and resistances. We need a nice bottom to indicate the end of the current short term bear trend. Nothing like that yet.

31st May: The index fell out of a double top, shown on both the daily and weekly charts. Target for the top has passed. But the index must be presumed to be in a down trend until there is a bottom. None has emerged yet.

Current prediction:

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency: 42.2 is a likely target

12th April: The index is giving no clues, but currency is rallying strongly.

Current prediction:

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency: 42.2 is a likely target

5th April: The top pointing to 4,900 is cancelled. Let's wait a week or two before pronouncing the top dead. But in the meantime, in the absence of a valid top, we should presume that the trend is bullish.

Current prediction:

Short term: descending triangle pointing to 4,900 - cancelled

Medium term: none

Long term: none

15th March: The index is still testing the neckline of a top, the breakout from which could see a downside of 4,900 or lower.

8th March: A top is forming in the medium term chart. If it breaks, chances are that the index would enter a bear trend, at least for the medium term.

23rd February: A double top will break if the index falls below 5,575. That could see the beginning of a medium term bear trend. Until such event, the trend may be presumed to be bullish.

16th February: Still testing long term resistances. This would be the case until 6,800, should the index rally so far. A short term top, however, could be forming and could spell the end of the impressive rally from 2,900.

9th February: Still testing resistance at 6,200 and support at 5,600.

26th January: A strong turn at the 6,200 resistance sees the market testing channel support at around 5,600. Now we need to wait and see if the support holds or the resistance breaks.

19th January: The index has met resistance on the daily chart. But the resistance at 7,000 on the daily chart and at 6,800 on the weekly chart are more likely to form a top than the current level.

12th January: Now testing resistance on the daily chart. But on the weekly chart, 6,800 is the important resistance.
Current prediction:

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency: none



2003

29th December: No indicators except for supports and resistances. Volume is quite good. 6,200 would be the real test.

24th November: A possible top in the short term. Otherwise, the index is testing channel support. Nothing clearer than that.

10th November: A small chance that the index is topping. But the rising volume in the last two weeks suggests that the index is not topping.

3rd November: A top could be forming on the short term chart. A fall to 4,200 might result. But the index could just as easily break the resistance in the second chart.

27th October: The market pulled back a little this week after reaching target the previous week. Now we are treading water and waiting for further indication of direction. Look out for a top.

20th October: The index has reached target and is now testing a resistance.

Current prediction:

Short term: none

Medium term: double bottom (daily and weekly) both pointing to 4,900  - done

13th October: Moving to target.

Current prediction:

Short term: none

Medium term:  double bottom (daily and weekly) both pointing to 4,900

6th October: This bullish market looks like it is headed higher. Target of 4,900 looks easily achievable. Resistance after that would be at around 5,900.

Current prediction:

Short term: none

Medium term:  double bottom (daily and weekly) both pointing to 4,900

22nd September: Strong resistance at the current level could slow the index for a while. 4,900 still a good chance.

Current prediction:

Short term: none

Medium term:  double bottom (daily and weekly) both pointing to 4,900

15th September: The index is moving inexorably to target.

Current prediction:

Short term: none

Medium term:  double bottom (daily and weekly) both pointing to 4,900

8th September: The index has broken resistance at 4,350. Nothing seems likely to stop the index before target.

Current prediction:

Short term: none

Medium term:  double bottom (daily and weekly) both pointing to 4,900

1st September: Both the daily and the weekly index charts have bottoms pointing to around 4,900. The weekly is usually quite reliable. The daily usually requires confirmation of the neckline by a pullback. Fairly good chance. Resistance at 4,350.

Current prediction:

Short term: none

Medium term: 1. double bottom pointing to 3,960 - done
                         2. double bottom pointing to 4,900

18th August: Waiting for 4,000. A fall after reaching that level could confirm a larger pattern.

Current prediction:

Short term: none

Medium term: 1. double bottom pointing to 3,960
                         2. double bottom pointing to 4,900 - not yet confirmed

11th August: The index is now likely to reach the 4,000 level. If the double bottom in the second chart is confirmed by a pullback to and turn on the neckline, we will have a target of 4,800.

Current prediction:

Short term: none

Medium term: 1. double bottom pointing to 3,960
                         2. double bottom pointing to 4,800

4th August: The index is testing resistance at the current level of around 3,850. If that breaks, target of just under 4,000 is highly likely.

Current prediction:

Short term: none

Medium term: double bottom pointing to 3,960 - likely if resistance at 3,850 breaks

28th July: A fair chance of 3,960. But volume does not make the target persuasive. 3,880 is a likely resistance.

Current prediction:

Short term: none

Medium term: double bottom pointing to 3,960 - questionable due to lacklustre volume

21st July: The index is testing a long term resistance at around 3,700 (second chart.) The target of 3,960 is questionable due to unimpressive recent volume.

Current prediction:

Short term: none

Medium term: double bottom pointing to 3,960 - questionable due to lacklustre volume

5th July: Despite low volume, there is a fair chance that the index will move to the high 3,800 level, if not, to target at 3,960.

Current prediction:

Short term: none

Medium term: double bottom pointing to 3,960

30th June: The index has broken out of a double bottom pattern. But the volume is too weak to confirm the target of nearly 4,000.

Current prediction:

Short term: none

Medium term: double bottom pointing to 3,960 - not yet confirmed

Long term: none

Currency: none

16th June: A nice scenario is eventuating. But volume is not yet sufficient to inspire confidence. The weekly chart gives a hint that the market might be bottoming.

9th June: A medium term resistance was broken last week. But volume is still not persuasive.

2nd June: Still waiting for volume. A fall back to 3,050 would not be a bad thing, provided a swift rebound ensued.

26th May: No change for the index. Volume still isn't building. Currency broke resistance at 47 and appears to be gently bullish.

19th May: Last week's rally was not supported by volume. 3,1260 would be the next resistance. But I would not be surprised if the index fell back before then.

12th May: A nice medium term scenario. But volume is not yet enough to inspire confidence that the market has turned. Good support in the long term chart.

28th April: The best case now is a double bottom, which would take a few months, at least, to form and would require that the index not fall below 2,840.

18th April: Bearish target at around 3,000 has been reached and the index is now on good support. It's time to wait for a bottom. This would need good volume.

29th March: 3,000 is likely to be retested.

Current prediction:

Short term: double top points to 3,000 (log), 2,985 (arithmetic)

24th March: The bearish target of 3,000 is now questionable.

Current prediction:

Short term: double top points to 3,000 (log), 2,985 (arithmetic)

Medium term: falling wedge (weekly) points to 3,700 - now questionable

Long term: none

Currency: none

17th March: The index is moving to target of 2,950 to 3,000.

Current prediction:

Short term: double top points to 3,000 (log), 2,985 (arithmetic)

Medium term: falling wedge (weekly) points to 3,700 - now questionable

Long term: none

Currency: none

10th March: A medium term top points to 2,980. There is moderate support at the current level (2nd chart) but I don't expect it to hold, given the pattern in the first chart. Let's see. The fund chart shows long term support not far away. Let's see if that holds.

Current prediction:

Short term: double top points to 3,000 (log), 2,985 (arithmetic)

Medium term:
1. falling wedge (weekly) points to 3,700 - now questionable
2. double bottom (weekly) points to 3,500 - cancelled

Long term: none

Currency: none

3rd March: The index has been moving in the range of 3,210 to 3,420. This range movement conduces to the scenario in the first chart. However, volume has been weakening over the last few weeks. This is not encouraging.

24th February: Nothing clear. We could be waiting until next month to get a clearer picture. The weekly chart gives hope for a continuation of the bullish trend.

Current prediction:

Short term:reverse head and shoulders points to 3,560 - now less reliable

Medium term:
1. falling wedge (weekly) points to 3,700
2. double bottom (weekly) points to 3,500

Long term: none

Currency: none

10th February: Volume has fallen off, reducing chances that the index is heading to target of 3,560. If the index is still in a bullish trend, the more likely scenario is that a right shoulder is forming, according to the scenario in the second chart. This could take another month or two to develop and volume should start to pick up, if we are to be confident of further rallies.

Current prediction:

Short term: reverse head and shoulders points to 3,560 - now less reliable

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency: none

3rd February: Not much change from last week. Still a good bullish chance provided the index stays above the 150 level.

Current prediction:

Short term: reverse head and shoulders points to 3,560

Medium term: none

Long term: none

27th January: The index is likely to fall back to 3,200 or slightly lower. But there is a good chance that the bull will resume after that fall.

13th January: Good chance of seeing 3,600 soon.

Current prediction:

Short term: 1. falling wedge (weekly) points to previous high at around 3,600
                    2. double bottom (weekly) points to 3,550; double bottom (daily) points to 3,600

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency: none 



2002

23rd December: The only encouraging market in the region. Volume is still good and the current pattern indicates a reversal. Still one or two obstacles to be overcome: the first is at around 3,350-60. Then just above 3,600. Daily turnover of 15 - 20 billion rupees is encouraging. More would be better.

Current prediction:

Short term: 1. falling wedge (weekly) points to previous high at around 3,600
                    2. double bottom (weekly) points to 3,550; double bottom (daily) points to 3,600

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency: none

16th December: The index is now testing resistance at 3,360. If it breaks this resistance, it will have a good chance of rallying to 3,550.

Current prediction:

Short term: 1. falling wedge (weekly) points to previous high at around 3,600
                    2. double bottom (weekly) points to 3,550; double bottom (daily) points to 3,600

Medium term: none

9th December: The index is looking quite bullish. If it rallies another few points, we will have a confirmed bullish target of 3,550.

Current prediction:

Short term: 1. falling wedge (weekly) points to previous high at around 3,650
                    2. double bottom (weekly) points to 3,550; double bottom (daily) points to 3,580

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency: none

2nd December: The bearish medium term top is cancelled. There is a little double bottom which has good volume and indicates a likely reversal. The top in the fund chart, however, is not yet cancelled. However, the greater probability is that the index has reversed its trend from bearish to bullish. Another week or two to confirm would be helpful.

Current prediction:

Short term: 1. falling wedge (weekly) points to previous high at around 3,650
                    2. double bottom (weekly) points to 3,550

Medium term:
1.) head and shoulders top (daily) points to 2,560 (log) and 2,445 (arithmetic) - cancelled
2.) head and shoulders top (weekly) points to 2,670 (log) and 2,590 (arithmetic) - cancelled

18th November: Index is testing resistance. A close at 3,120 would cancel the bearish top. But volume last week does not suggest a change of trend from bearish to bullish.

Current prediction:

Short term: none

Medium term:
1.) head and shoulders top (daily) points to 2,560 (log) and 2,445 (arithmetic)
2.) head and shoulders top (weekly) points to 2,670 (log) and 2,590 (arithmetic)

Long term: none

Currency: none

11th November: Despite short term volatility, the target of 2,560, at least, seems the most likely outcome.

2nd November: Target of 2,560 is still the greater probability.

28th October: The top pointing to 2,560 is now confirmed.

Current prediction:

Short term: none

Medium term:
1.) head and shoulders top (daily) points to 2,560 (log) and 2,445 (arithmetic)
2.) head and shoulders top (weekly) points to 2,670 (log) and 2,590 (arithmetic)

Long term: none

Currency: none

19th October: No indication of direction from last week's movement.

Current prediction:

Short term: none

Medium term:
1.) head and shoulders top (daily) points to 2,560 (log) and 2,445 (arithmetic)
2.) head and shoulders top (weekly) points to 2,670 (log) and 2,590 (arithmetic)

Long term: none

Currency: none
 

12th October: Last week's rally rendered the medium term prediction less probable than last week as the index has rallied above a key support at 2,920. The target would be confirmed again if the index falls below the support.

Current prediction:

Short term: none

Medium term:
1.) head and shoulders top (daily) points to 2,560 (log) and 2,445 (arithmetic)
2.) head and shoulders top (weekly) points to 2,670 (log) and 2,590 (arithmetic)

Long term: none

Currency: none

7th October: The index has confirmed our target of 2,560.

Current prediction:

Short term: none

Medium term:
1.) head and shoulders top (daily) points to 2,560 (log) and 2,445 (arithmetic) - confirmed
2.) head and shoulders top (weekly) points to 2,670 (log) and 2,590 (arithmetic) - confirmed

Long term: none

Currency: none

30th September: .No change from last week. Down is still the more likely trend for the index.

Current prediction:

Short term: none

Medium term:
1.) head and shoulders top (daily) points to 2,560 (log) and 2,445 (arithmetic) - confirmed if leg support at 2,920 breaks.
2.) head and shoulders top (weekly) points to 2,670 (log) and 2,590 (arithmetic) - still valid

Long term: none

Currency: none

23rd September: The daily chart would require a fall below 2,920 to confirm target of 2,560. The weekly chart looks more persuasive.

Current prediction:

Short term: none

Medium term:
1.) head and shoulders top (daily) points to 2,560 (log) and 2,445 (arithmetic) - confirmed if leg support at 2,920 breaks.
2.) head and shoulders top (weekly) points to 2,670 (log) and 2,590 (arithmetic) - still valid

Long term: none

Currency: none

16th September: The index has not confirmed its bearish top. Only a fall below 2,920 would confirm the fall.

Current prediction:

Short term: none

Medium term:
1.) head and shoulders top (daily) points to 2,560 (log) and 2,445 (arithmetic) - confirmed if leg support at 2,920 breaks.
2.) head and shoulders top (weekly) points to 2,670 (log) and 2,590 (arithmetic) - still valid

Long term: none

Currency: none

9th September: Bearish top is still not cancelled, despite gains in recent weeks. A close at 3,200 would cancel the top. Otherwise, we should be prepared for a fall back to the region of 2,500.

Current prediction:

Short term: none

Medium term:
1.) head and shoulders top (daily) points to 2,560 (log) and 2,445 (arithmetic) - confirmed if leg support at 2,930 breaks.
2.) head and shoulders top (weekly) points to 2,670 (log) and 2,590 (arithmetic) - still valid

2nd September: Last Friday saw an impressive surge in the index. But the rally was not sufficient to cancel the bearish top.

Current prediction:

Short term: none

Medium term:
1.) head and shoulders top (daily) points to 2,560 (log) and 2,445 (arithmetic) - confirmed if leg support at 2,930 breaks.
2.) head and shoulders top (weekly) points to 2,670 (log) and 2,590 (arithmetic) - now questionable

Long term: none

Currency: none
26th August: The top pointing to 2,560 is subject to doubt now that the index has closed above the neckline. But it is not yet cancelled.

Current prediction:

Short term: none

Medium term:
1.) head and shoulders top (daily) points to 2,560 (log) and 2,445 (arithmetic) - confirmed if leg support at 2,930 breaks.
2.) head and shoulders top (weekly) points to 2,670 (log) and 2,590 (arithmetic) - now questionable

Long term: none

Currency: none

19th August: No great change. The medium term trend is still bearish.

12th August: The index is in danger of retesting previous low at around 2,500. Only the weak support at the current level stands in the way of a plunge to 2,500.

Current prediction:

Short term: none

Medium term:
1.) head and shoulders top (daily) points to 2,560 (log) and 2,445 (arithmetic) - confirmed if leg support at 2,930 breaks.
2.) head and shoulders top (weekly) points to 2,670 (log) and 2,590 (arithmetic)

Long term: none

22nd July: Still waiting for the support at 3,100 to be retested. If it fails, 2,950 would be the next support and a fall back to the 2,500 region should not be ruled out.

15th July: No change from last week. A possible short term triangle in the first chart.

8th July: Nothing very helpful at present; only a bunch of scenarios, none of which is looking likely to help in the short term.

1st July: Not much change. Still hope for a bottom, provided the index remains above support on the first chart at about 3,100.

Current prediction:

Short term: none

Medium term: head and shoulders top points to 2,850, not confirmed (third chart below- grey pattern)

Long term: none

Currency: none

24th June: The index is giving no clues as to its direction. But there is good support on the long term daily chart.

10th June: The index has a chance of bottoming, despite the pattern pointing to 2,850. A close at 3,330, or higher, would cancel the top and would improve the chances of a nice long reversal pattern developing.

Current prediction:

Short term: none

Medium term: head and shoulders top points to 2,850, not confirmed

Long term: none

Currency: none

3rd June: The index is testing support at 3,100. A turn at this level could make a nice reversal pattern leading, in the best case scenario, to a rally to 4,900. A fall through 3,100 would see 2,850, at least.

Current prediction:

Short term: none

Medium term: head and shoulders top points to 2,850

Long term: none

Currency: none

27th May: A short term top points to 2,850. But there is a possible channel support at the current level. Let's see if the index holds there. Our target of 4,400 is cancelled. But a slight rally would revive it.

Current prediction:

Short term: none

Medium term: head and shoulders top points to 2,850

Long term: reverse head and shoulders points to 4,400 - cancelled

Currency: none

13th May: The index turned on the neckline of our reversal pattern, increasing the probability that the index has reversed and that the index will move to 4,400 in the coming months. The next confirmation would be a close above 3,800 on strong volume. A close below 3,300 would cancel the prediction and give a likely fall to 2,800 or lower.

Current prediction:

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: reverse head and shoulders points to 4,400 - confirmed if breakout from wedge.

Currency: none

6th May: No change from last week. We are still waiting for the index to rebound and for volume to build.

Current prediction:

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: reverse head and shoulders points to 4,400 - confirmed if breakout from wedge.

Currency: none

28th April: The bullish pattern pointing to 4,400 is being tested. A close at 3,300 would cancel the target. A breakout from a wedge on strong volume (see first chart) would confirm the target.

Current prediction:

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: reverse head and shoulders points to 4,400 - confirmed if breakout from wedge.

Currency: none

21st April: The index is testing the neckline of a bullish pattern that points to 4,400. If the index turns on the neckline, the target of 4,400 will be confirmed. If it falls through the neckline, we can forget about 4,400.

Current prediction:

Short term:  head and shoulders top points to 3,320.

Medium term: none

Long term: reverse head and shoulders points to 4,400 - confirmed if volume continues to build.

Currency: none

8th April: A short term pattern is bearish and the long term chart shows a turn on resistance which is also bearish. The key level to watch is around 3,350. A fall to this level and a rebound on strong volume would be a bullish sign and could indicate a rally to 4,400.

Current prediction:

Short term:  head and shoulders top points to 3,320.

Medium term: none

Long term: reverse head and shoulders points to 4,400 - confirmed if volume continues to build.

Currency: none

31st March: The index is now in a short term bear mode. The big test would come at around 3,350. If the index falls to that level and then rallies on strong volume, we could consider the current medium term bull trend partially confirmed. Further confirmation would be a rally above 3,800 and increasing volume. The downside would be a retesting of the previous low at around 2,550.

9th March: Not much to report. Volume is not picking up and the index has not pulled back to the neckline of the reverse head and shoulders. There is a modest long term resistance to be overcome. If that happens, 4,400, or slightly lower, is a good probability.

Current prediction:

Short term:  none

Medium term: none

Long term: reverse head and shoulders points to 4,400 - confirmed if volume continues to build.

Currency: none

2nd March: A bit of sideways movement last week, albeit volatile. Volume is weaker than one would have hoped.

Current prediction:

Short term:  none

Medium term: none

Long term: reverse head and shoulders points to 4,400 - confirmed if volume continues to build.

Currency: none

25th February: Volume is still weak. We are therefore likely to see the index pull back to 3,400 or 3,500, before advancing.

Current prediction:

Short term:  none

Medium term: none

Long term: reverse head and shoulders points to 4,400 - confirmed if volume continues to build.

Currency: none

18th February: The index has made a pattern pointing to 4,400. But volume on breakout was not sufficient. Let's see if volume continues to build in the next week or two. If so, we are more likely to see target of 4,400.

Current prediction:

Short term:  none

Medium term: none

Long term: reverse head and shoulders points to 4,400 - confirmed if volume continues to build.

Currency: none

11th February: The index has broken out of a reversal pattern giving a target of 4,400. But we need to see resistance break at 3,700 before we can be confident of the target. Volume needs to be high.

Current prediction:

Short term:  none

Medium term: none

Long term: reverse head and shoulders points to 4,400 - confirmed if index closes above 3,750

Currency: none

2nd February: The index is still developing in an encouraging direction. But there is no breakout yet.

28th January: No change from three weeks ago: a nice reversal pattern could be developing. If it breaks, we can look forward to a rally near 4,300.

6th January: Both the index and the fund chart show possible reversal patterns. None has yet broken out. If they do, it would be evidence that the market has bottomed.

Current prediction:

Short term:  none

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency: none 


2001

24th December: Good recent volume gives hope for further rallying. But there is nothing else to go on.

10th December: Good chance for a long term reversal. Volume is building nicely. A few resistances to watch on the long term charts.

24th November: The index is testing long term resistance at 3,300 on the daily and weekly charts.

19th November: The index has hit a few long term resistances. But both the index and the fund have turned on a good long term support. If the rest of the region is bottoming, there is a good chance that the Indian market is also bottoming on this support.

Current prediction:

Short term:  none

Medium term: none

Long term: head and shoulders top pointing to 1,900 (log) and 800 (arithmetic) now doubtful. Cancelled if index closes above 3,300.

12th November: The bearish target of 1,900 is now doubtful. We are left with a turn on a long term support. With luck, the index is now bottoming.

Current prediction:

Short term:  none

Medium term: none

Long term: head and shoulders top pointing to 1,900 (log) and 800 (arithmetic) now doubtful. Cancelled if index closes above 3,300.

22nd October: The index is now sitting under an important resistance. If the resistance breaks, we can cancel our target of 1,900. If the index turns and falls, such a move would confirm the target.

Current prediction:

Short term:  reverse head and shoulders to 3,050

Medium term: none

Long term: head and shoulders top pointing to 1,900 (log) and 800 (arithmetic). Cancelled if index closes above 3,000.

Currency: none

15th October: Some short term patterns in the fund and index. And a good long term support reached on the daily and weekly charts. But nothing to indicate a reversal of the long term bearish trend.

Current prediction:

Short term:  reverse head and shoulders to 3,050

Medium term: none

Long term: head and shoulders top pointing to 1,900 (log) and 800 (arithmetic). Cancelled if index closes above 3,000.

Currency: none

8th October: The index has turned on a good long term support on the weekly chart. But there is no evidence yet of a bottom.

1st October: The index is on supports. But there is no sign of a bottom yet.

17th September: Good long term support on the daily chart at the current level. A strong rebound to as high as 3,200 would not be surprising. But the weekly chart has no good support until 2,700, and then 2,500. There is a good chance that we will see one or both of these levels tested in the coming weeks.

10th September:  A short term scenario could see a fall to 2,900 or lower. But the long term weekly chart is still the most important indicator. It shows a consolidation at the current level. With luck a bottom will form at this level.

27th August: The index is consolidating around the long term support on the weekly chart. Now it is a question of whether the support will hold and effect a reversal, or whether the support will break and the bearish trend will continue. No sign of either event.

20th August: Nothing much to report this week. We are still waiting to see what happens at the support at 3,200, both on the daily chart and the weekly chart.

6th August: The long term weekly support at the 3,200 level, is still the major point to watch.

30th July: A fall below 3,200 could see a fall to 2,800. But the index is now testing support a 3,200 on the weekly chart. This is a good long term support. We should see this support break before considering a fall to 2,800. The upside is that the index rebounds on the long term support.

23rd July: Weekly support is at 3,200. Below that level, a fall to 2,800, or 2,600, is likely.

16th July: The index has turned on low volume, suggesting a possible triangle. The funds look more bullish.

9th July: Important support at around 3,230 to 3,250. If this breaks, the 3,000 level will be tested. If that happens, keep an eye on the weekly support at around 3,200. If that support fails, the next weekly support is around 2,450.

23rd June: Our short term top pointing to the 3,000 level is now questionable. Otherwise, not much to go on for this market, except the long term weekly support at around 3,200.

Current prediction:

Short term:  a rising wedge and a head and shoulders top both point to previous low at 3,100-3,050.

Medium term: none

Long term: nothing

Currency:  trend is down

18th June: A short term top points to 3,000. But the long term weekly support at 3,300 could intervene.

4th June: The short term bullish pattern for the index is cancelled. A wedge suggests short term bearishness.

Current prediction:

Short term:  rising wedge pointing to previous low at 3,100.

21st May: The index has made a short term reversal pattern. This pattern, in the context of the weekly long term support, could indicate the start of bull run.

14th May: The index is in the grip of ambiguity. But the fund is still bullish.

Current prediction:

Short term:  none for the index. But the fund has made a short term reversal pattern that could have significance for the market.

7th May: Nothing significant in the index. But one of the India funds that I follow has made a short term reversal. This could portend a change of the long term trend. We shall have to keep an eye on it.

Current prediction:

Short term:  none for the index. But the fund has made a short term reversal pattern that could have significance for the market.

Medium term: none

Long term: nothing

Currency:  trend is down

30th April: The only clear indicator is the fund, which is still bearish. According to Amit Sheth, the sharp drop in volume shown in our charts is accurate. Says Amit, "The low volumes in indian market are due to the fact that short sales have been banned since March 1st week. So day traders have to necessarily buy first & then sale, which is lousy. Day traders constituted 80-90 % of volumes in indian market." Thanks for that Amit. Low volume seems likely to be with us from now on, making predictions less reliable for the next few months at least.

23rd April: The weekly chart has touched and turned on a good long term support. With luck this turn will be confirmed as a bottom with a little pattern. Otherwise, the downside risk of 2,000 cannot be dismissed.

9th April: Not much change. We're still hanging out for 3,200

2nd April: 3,200 is likely in the next few weeks. After that, we should wait and see if the long term weekly support holds the index or whether a head and shoulders top breaks, with target of 2,100.

Current prediction:

Short term:  none

Medium term: a double top pointing to 3,200 - cancelled on a rally above 3,900.

19th March: There is now a high probability that the index is going to fall to around 3,200. Only a rally above 3,900 would avert the fall. At 3,200 we need to keep an eye on a long term head and shoulders top. If the neckline of the top breaks, we will probably see the index fall back to 2,100. Strong weekly support would be at around 3,300.

Current prediction:

Short term:  none

Medium term: a double top pointing to 3,200 - cancelled on a rally above 3,900.

Long term: nothing

Currency: retesting recent low

12th March: The index has made a top pointing to 3,600. A close at 4,050 will cancel the pattern. Good long term support occurs at 3,300. The india fund that I follow is decidedly bearish.

Current prediction:

Short term:  a short to medium term head and shoulders top points to 3,600. But long term support is best at 3,300.

Medium term: none

Long term: nothing

Currency: possible bottoming

5th March: The index is in danger of making a short term top that could see a fall to 3,600. The double bottom scenario on the medium term chart is not persuasive.

26th February: The index has turned on a medium term resistance. It has good support at 4,050. If this fails, support is at 3,600.

19th February: Volume is still quite strong. But it is not yet sufficient for a reliable reversal scenario. There is also long term resistance operating at the current level.

12th February: Long term resistance has now broken in the daily chart. This could be bullish. But I would prefer to wait for the double bottom (first chart) to break on good volume. Thus a close at 4,650 on strong volume would give a target of 5,800.

5th February: With volume figures back on the chart we can see that volume is insufficient for a medium term bottom. But the long term still looks encouraging.

29th January: The index could be bottoming. But without volume figures it is impossible to get a good impression of the impending trend. Resistance at 4,500 on the long term daily chart.

22nd January: The index is facing a tough long term resistance. But currency has made a short term bottom and could be making a medium term bottom.

8th January: The index appears to be meandering about without any obvious trend.

Current prediction

Short term: a reverse head and shoulders points to 4,600. But without volume figures, the pattern is not reliable.

Medium term: a triangle points to 3,100, perhaps 2,800.

Long term: a head and shoulders top will be confirmed if the index falls below 3,400. In such case, we should expect at least the log target of 2,350, and perhaps the arithmetic target of 1,450.

Currency: possible bottoming 


2000

18th December: The index has broken some long term resistances but has turned on a medium term resistance. Without volume figures we are a bit handicapped. Support at 4,100 is important. If it fails, the index could plunge.

Current prediction

Short term: a reverse head and shoulders points to 4,600. But without volume figures, the pattern is not reliable.

Medium term: a triangle points to 3,100, perhaps 2,800.

Long term: a head and shoulders top will be confirmed if the index falls below 3,400. In such case, we should expect at least the log target of 2,350, and perhaps the arithmetic target of 1,450.

Currency: possible bottoming

11th December: There is a little short term reversal pattern that suggests that the index could be bottoming. But without volume figures, we cannot tell whether the pattern is valid. BSE stopped publishing volume figures in August. But more important, the index is now trapped under strong long term resistance. If the index is to bottom, we must see this resistance break. The weekly chart shows a breakout from its long term resistance. With luck, the daily charts will follow next week.

Current prediction

Short term: a reverse head and shoulders points to 4,600. But without volume figures, the pattern is not reliable.

Medium term: a triangle points to 3,100, perhaps 2,800.

Long term: a head and shoulders top will be confirmed if the index falls below 3,400. In such case, we should expect at least the log target of 2,350, and perhaps the arithmetic target of 1,450.

Currency: possible bottoming

4th December: The index rallied again to the neckline of our medium term pattern. But no higher. A rally to 4,300 would remove some of the bearish influence. A fall to 3,250 will increase it.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: a double top points to 3,000 and a triangle points to 3,100, perhaps 2,800.

Long term: a head and shoulders top will be confirmed if the index falls below 3,400. In such case, we should expect at least the log target of 2,350, and perhaps the arithmetic target of 1,450.

Currency: none

13th November: The recent rallies have not cancelled our medium term patterns. The fund chart has rallied above the neckline of a head and shoulders top, but not sufficiently to cancel the bearish pattern. I'm still cautious about this market.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: a double top points to 3,000 and a triangle points to 3,100, perhaps 2,800.

Long term: a head and shoulders top will be confirmed if the index falls below 3,400. In such case, we should expect at least the log target of 2,350, and perhaps the arithmetic target of 1,450.

Currency: none

6th November: The index rallied last week, cancelling the bearish prediction on the weekly chart. But the medium term patterns are still valid.

30th October: The weekly chart has broken a head and shoulders top. The target of 2,630 is confirmed. It will be cancelled only if the index closes above 3,700 one Friday in the few weeks. It will be confirmed if the daily chart closes below 3,500. The only hope of a rebound lies in a falling wedge. But the wedge is not well-formed. It is unlikely to assist. The greater probability is that this market is going down for some months to come.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: a double top points to 3,000 and a triangle points to 3,100, perhaps 2,800.

Long term: a head and shoulders top will be confirmed if the index falls below 3,650. In such case, we should expect at least the log target of 2,350, and perhaps the arithmetic target of 1,450.

Currency: none

23rd October: The index rallied a little last week. But not enough to cancel any bearish patterns. The best hope for the index now is a long term support at 3,500. If the index falls through this level, a top will break pointing to 2,350.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: a double top points to 3,000 and a triangle points to 3,100, perhaps 2,800.

Long term: a head and shoulders top will be confirmed if the index falls below 3,650. In such case, we should expect at least the log target of 2,350, and perhaps the arithmetic target of 1,450.

Currency: none

16th October: A supports broke last week, confirming some bearish targets.  But a fall below 3,650 will confirm that the long term bull trend has reversed. The index will break 3,650 if the medium term targets are reached. The fund chart has already broken a head and shoulders top, anticipating the breakout of the index pattern. Chances are high that the index is going down to around 2,300, perhaps in January.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: a double top points to 3,000 and a triangle points to 3,100, perhaps 2,800.

Long term: a head and shoulders top will be confirmed if the index falls below 3,650. In such case, we should expect at least the log target of 2,350, and perhaps the arithmetic target of 1,450.

Currency: none

2nd October: The index has made a triangle that points to a lower target. But there are some good supports that should first break before we can confirm a medium term bearish trend.

25th September: Support is approaching at 3,900. This is a long term support. If it fails, we should presume that the index will fall at least to 3,500 or 3,600, most probably to 3,100, which is the target of a valid triangle. At 3,100 a long term head and shoulders top will have broken, pointing to 2,300. Good support exists at the previous low of 2,800.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: a triangle points to 3,100, perhaps 2,800. Long term support at 3,900 must be passed before the target of 3,100 is confirmed.

18th September: Not much to go on. Our short term pattern on the index is cancelled.

11th September: The index moved sideways last week. There is an important resistance at 4,750, or thereabouts, this week. If the index turns on this resistance, there could be long term bearish implications.

4th September: The index has made a little double bottom. A rally to 4,600 or 4,700 is likely. After that, no clear indication.

Current prediction

Short term: A little double bottom points up to about 4,700.

14th August: The index is still not revealing much direction. Support at 4,100 is important this week. But there will be good long term support as far down as 3,850, making any short term falls difficult to interpret. More uncertainty to endure.

7th August: The index did nothing exciting last week. The fund charts are looking a bit bearish. But there is nothing yet conclusive.

31st July: The medium term shows a nice double bottom scenario. The long term shows a good support at around 3,900 to 4000. But there is also a head and shoulders top scenario that could see a nasty fall to 2,700. A few more weeks could sort out the mystery.

24th July: The index has made a little double top pointing to 4,200. No support at that level. Next support is somewhere between 3,700 and 4,000.

10th July: Direction for the index is still ambiguous. On one hand, volume is good and a medium term resistance has recently broken. But there is still no persuasive breakout from the medium term reversal pattern. Until this happens, there is still the danger that the index is topping.

3rd July: The index could still go either way. A nice surge above 5,000 is needed to confirm the bull trend.

26th June: Volume is continuing to build impressively. There is a chance that the index could break the current resistance. But there is no valid reversal pattern yet.

19th June: With a little more rallying, the index will pass the head and shoulders top danger zone. Volume is encouraging. But until we see 4,900 pass with good volume, there's a fair chance that the index will drop to previous lows, or lower.

12th June: Volume is building nicely, giving hope for a good short term reversal pattern. Resistance is just under 5,000. If the index fails this level, a medium term double bottom, with a return to 3,900, is likely.

5th June: The index has found support and is making a possible bottom. But we should await a break above 4,700 before getting too excited about the prospect of a medium term bottom.

15th May: The long term trend is still up - but we have no more bullish targets, due to the cancellation of the weekly pattern. The trend is up until there is a long term reversal pattern. This could take a few months to form, if it does at all.

There is good support at the current level, at 4,000, then 3,700. Downside is 3,200.

Current prediction

Short range target: none

Medium term: none

Long term: Double bottom - weekly charts point to around 6,900 - cancelled.

Currency: none

8th May: The index could go either way and it could be months before a clear picture emerges. But the weekly chart still looks bullish.

1st May: Good supports. But no sign of a short term bottom yet. Nor is there a clear indication that the index will fall further. We must therefore await clearer signals. The greater probability is that the index is still in a bull trend. But some short term evidence would be a comfort.

24th April: The daily double bottom target of 7,400 has been cancelled, due to a fall below the neckline. The long term target on the weekly chart has been lowered to 6,900. However, we should see a turn on support in order to be confident of the pattern. The fund chart has also fallen to good support.

On the other hand, there is the danger of a topping pattern. If the index fails the long term support at 4,400, we could see a fall to 3,000.

Current prediction

Short range target: none

Medium term: none

Long term: Double bottom - weekly charts point to around 6,900. Let's see the daily chart recover before getting our hopes up with this one.

17th April: The target of 7,400 has emerged unscathed on the weekly chart. Still a good chance, despite today's falls.

25th March: The index is sitting nicely on the neckline of our long term pattern. Chances are that we will see a rebound in the next week or month. Keep an eye on the head and shoulders with neckline at 4,800. This would be the escape point.

Current prediction

Short range target: none

Medium term: none

Long term: Double bottoms - daily and weekly charts point to around 7,600. Good probability.

Currency: none

20th March: The index is now sitting on the neckline of our long term double top. With luck, we will get a turn on the neckline and a breakout from a short term falling wedge. If this happens, our target of 7,400 will be confirmed.

Current prediction

Short range target: none

Medium term: none

Long term: Double bottoms - daily and weekly charts point to around 7,600. Good probability.

13th March: The index has, at the time of writing, pulled back below the neckline of the long term double bottom. (The market is not yet closed today). There is now a chance that the index falls back to 5,000. So long as the index does not venture too far below 5,000, we can expect our double bottom to work.

Current prediction

Short range target: none

Medium term: none

Long term: Double bottoms - daily and weekly charts point to around 7,600. Good probability.

Currency: none

6th March: The index could correct to as low as 5,000 without cancelling our target of 7,500.

Current prediction

Short range target: none

Medium term: reverse head and shoulders points to 6,650-cancelled

Long term: Double bottoms - daily and weekly charts point to around 7,600. Good probability.
 
 

28th February: The index has corrected to 5,600, which is a good support. But it could slip a bit further without harming our target of 7,600.

Current prediction

Short range target: none

Medium term: reverse head and shoulders points to 6,650

Long term: Double bottoms - daily and weekly charts point to around 7,600. Good probability.

Currency: none

21st February: The index corrected last week after nearly hitting our short term target of 6,200. The index could continue correcting this week. Support is around 5,600. But the weekly chart allows support as low as 5,300. A new medium term target is 6,650

Current prediction

Short range target: none

Medium term: reverse head and shoulders points to 6,650

Long term: Double bottoms - daily and weekly charts point to around 7,600. Good probability.

Currency: none

14th February: The index reached our first short term target last week. The index has a habit of correcting after reaching target. This observation, in conjunction with a few strong resistances, could see the index correct this week. But this is just a hunch. The index could just as easily go on to target of 6,200 without hesitation.

Current prediction

Short range target: 6,200 short term

Medium term: none

Long term: Double bottoms - daily and weekly charts point to around 7,600. Good probability.

Currency: none

7th February: The index is holding nicely above the neckline of our long term double bottom. With luck we will soon see a rally to our next target of 5,800.

Current prediction

Short range target: 5,800 short term

Medium term: none

Long term: Double bottoms - daily and weekly charts point to around 7,600. Good probability.

Currency: none

31st January: The index reached our first target of 5,600. It is now consolidating. There is good long term support at the current level. Weekly support is at 5,100.

Current prediction

Short range target: 5,800 short term

Medium term: none

Long term: Double bottoms
1. Daily chart pointing to around 5,600 - done; and
2. Daily and weekly charts point to around 7,600. Good probability.

Currency: none

10th January: A very bullish breakout indeed! We now have confirmation of 7,600 on the weekly and daily charts.

Current prediction

Short range target: 5,800 short term - high probability

Medium term: none

Long term: Double bottoms
1. Daily chart pointing to around 5,600 - good volume; and
2. Daily and weekly charts point to around 7,600. Good probability.

Currency: none


History from 1996 to 1999


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