2008

7th July: Still clinging on: The long term chart still shows a bullish trend. The shorter term chart shows a top danger. But there is no breakout yet.

30th June: No change over the last month: The long term chart still shows a bullish trend. The shorter term chart shows a top danger. But there is no breakout yet.

12th May: The long term chart still shows a bullish trend. The shorter term chart shows a top danger. But there is no breakout yet.

5th May: The long term chart still shows a bullish trend. The shorter term chart shows a top danger. But there is no breakout yet.

28th April: The long term chart still shows a bullish trend. The shorter term chart shows a top danger. But there is no breakout yet.

21st April: The long term chart still shows a bullish trend. The shorter term chart shows a top danger. But there is no breakout yet.

14th April: The breakout last week was only marginal. We would need to see a larger breakout from the top in the first chart in order to confirm the target of

7th April: The index is still on good long term support. There is still a top danger. But there is equally a good chance that the long term bullish trend will continue.

31st March: The index rebounded on good support. There is still a top danger. But there is equally good chance that the long term bullish trend will continue.

24th March: The index fell to good support. The chart is current to mid-last week. But the support was still in tact at the time of writing.

10th March: The index is meandering around its previous high. It could be making the double top shown in the first chart. But it could easily be consolidating before heading higher. Nothing clear.

3rd March: The index is retesting its previous high. Volume is still strong. A top scenario is shown in the first chart. But there is no reason to presume that it will happen. The trend is still bullish.

25th February: The index is retesting its previous high. Volume is still strong. A top scenario is shown in the first chart. But there is no reason to presume that it will happen. The trend is still bullish.

21st January: The index turned on a strong resistance on the long term chart. A period of weakness would not surprise, given the regional mood. Otherwise, nothing to suggest an end to the bull market.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  none

Currency: none

14th January: The index is meandering upward in a nice bullish channel.

17th December:  The index is struggling on medium term resistance in the first chart. A medium term top - maybe - in the first chart. But long term support is at 2,100 and upside of 3,200.

19th November:  The index closed last Friday safely within a bullish channel. Log upside of 3,200, or thereabouts.

12th November:  The index is once again testing resistance in the first chart.

5th November:  The index is once again testing resistance in the first chart.

15th October:  The index has taken off again, passing a possible resistance. This sort of vertical movement leaves little room for comment, except to say the trend is bullish.

8th October:  The index passed its previous top and is now testing a new possible resistance.

1st October:  The index is now retesting its previous high. Failure at this stage would give rise to the danger of a double top. This is shown in the first chart. On the other hand, the trend is still bullish and should be presumed to continue until a reversal is shown.

24th September:  The index is now retesting its previous high. Failure at this stage would give rise to the danger of a double top. This is shown in the first chart. On the other hand, the trend is still bullish and should be presumed to continue until a reversal is shown.

17th September: Only a fall below 1,900 would end the bullish trend.

28th August:  The index plunged without making a top. While the channel support holds, in the chart below, the trend is still bullish.

13th August:  The index is now testing a support in the first chart. There is no sign yet of a top. The trend is still bullish.

30th July:  The fall last Friday is of no great significance. There is support nearby at around 2,250. Otherwise not much to go on.

23rd July:  The index has broken short term resistance. There is nothing much holding the index back now. The bullish trend is strong.

16th July:  The index broke a fairly strong medium term resistance, giving renewed impetus to the bull market. Resistance at 2,300 in the first chart now testing.

9th July:  The index broke a fairly strong medium term resistance, giving renewed impetus to the bull market. Resistance at 2,300 in the first chart.

25th June:  Retesting resistance in the first chart. A fall below 2,100 would be bearish in the short term.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  none

Currency: none

18th June:  A tiny little top in the first chart. But nothing to give much indication of direction. We'll have to be patient.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  none

Currency: none

 

11th June:  A tiny little top in the first chart. But nothing to give much indication of direction. We'll have to be patient.

4th June: Resistance at around 2,100 turned the index. It is now testing support in the first chart.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  none

Currency: none

 

4th June: The index is now retesting previous high.

Current prediction:

Short term: double bottom points to 14,400 - done.

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency:  double bottom points to 38
 
 

28th May: Resistance at around 2,100 is now being tested.

21st May: Resistance at around 2,100 and slightly higher.

14th May: Nothing much more than a collection of channels, as shown in the first chart. Resistance at around 2,000 and slightly higher.

23rd April: Nothing much more than a collection of channels, as shown in the first chart. Resistance at around 2,000 and slightly higher.

2nd April: A possible top developing, as shown in the first chart.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  none

Currency: none

 

26th March: A possible top developing, as shown in the first chart.

12th March: A possible top developing, as shown in the first chart.

5th March: Nothing clear to go on. The top scenario in the first chart is of too short a duration to give much guide.

19th February: The index is experiencing the volatility that is characteristic of a major top. Lets see what happens. A fall to 1,650, or below, would indicate a double top breakout and a medium term reversal.

12th February: The index is experiencing the volatility that is characteristic of a major top. Lets see what happens. A fall to 1,650, or below, would indicate a double top breakout and a medium term reversal.

29th January: The index is experiencing the volatility that is characteristic of a major top. Lets see what happens. A double top appears to be forming. But it's still early days.

15th January: The index is experiencing the volatility that is characteristic of a major top. Lets see what happens. There is no clear sign of a top yet and so the trend should be presumed to be bullish.

Current prediction

Short term: top points to 1,600.

Medium term: none

Long term:  none

Currency: none

 

8th January: The short term chart defines the current trend: a well defined and consistent bull trend. No long term resistance in sight. No sign of a top in the short term.

2006

18th December: The first chart shows a short term channel with resistance. But there is no medium or long term resistance as the index flies into uncharted territory.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  none

Currency: none

11th December: The index is now testing a very short term resistance in green. The trend is still bullish. Perhaps the strong rally early last week is the sign of a reversal. But I would expect the market to reverse with a huge leap of 5% or 10% in a day or two - the buying climax. Not with steady increments, as has been the case for the last couple of months.

4th December: One resistance broken in green. Another testing in orange.

20th November: A possible resistance at the current level. Lets see if there's a turn soon.

13th November: With the index now in new high territory, finding new resistance is speculative. The trend is bullish until there is a topping pattern. No such pattern yet.

6th November: The index has past previous high and is now heading for resistance at around 1,700, as shown in the first chart.

16th October: The index is still retesting the previous recent high. There is still a danger of a double top.

9th October: Retesting all time high gives rise to a double top danger.

2nd October: Double top danger as the index retests the previous recent high on lower volume than that of May.

25th September: Double top danger as the index inches higher.

11th September: A very bearish accident waiting to happen in the first chart.

Current prediction

Short term: reverse head and shoulders points to 1,460 - questionable due to rising wedge breakout

21st August: The index is heading to target. The medium term outlook is dangerous as the index approaches and retests 1,550.

7th August: The index has made a little bottom in the context of a good channel support. Good short term bullish prospects.

17th July: The first chart gives a credible reversal scenario that could see the market enter a long term bear trend.

10th July: Double top danger in the first chart is still the prevailing concern.

3rd July: The index is support at the current level, but there is danger of a double top in the next few months.

26th June: No support for the index. But the fund is well supported and could indicate a possible bottom.

19th June: The index has not yet reached a good support. Nor has it given signals of bottoming. The prospect of further falls must be considered.

 
 5th June: No support for the index. But the fund shows support.

22nd May: The index fell last week to a channel support but no further. No sign of a top pattern. The trend may thus be presumed to be bullish.
 

15th May: The market is rallying higher without any sign of topping. Possible resistance in the first chart. But nothing to suggest an end to the bull trend.

8th May: The first chart shows strong resistance. The second shows an outstanding target.

1st May: Both the index and the fund suggest that this market has further upside.

17th April: Both the fund chart and the index chart are approaching analogous resistances.

9th April: The index is heading for resistance at 1,400.

3rd April: A bullish market making new highs in a nicely defined set of channels.

27th March: The index reached our target of 1,350 and is now consolidating, probably for a further rally to 1,400.

Current prediction

Short term:ascending triangle points to 1,350 - good as done

Medium term: triple bottom points to 1,260 - done

Long term:  double bottom (weekly and daily ) both points to 1,300- done

Currency: none

17th March: The index has broken out of a short term triangle with target of 1,350. Volume is good. There is no resistance at 1,350. Thus we might expect the index to rally higher than target.

Current prediction

Short term:ascending triangle points to 1,350

Medium term: triple bottom points to 1,260 - done

Long term:  double bottom (weekly and daily ) both points to 1,300

13th March: A small ascending triangle in the first chart suggests that the index is more likely to breakout upside, in conformity with the target in the second chart.

Current prediction

Short term:symmetrical triangle points to 1,330 - cancelled

Medium term: triple bottom points to 1,260 - done

Long term:  double bottom (weekly and daily ) both points to 1,300

Currency: none

6th March: A short term breakout in the first chart is bullish. But there is still the danger of a top forming. Until that happens, we should assume that the trend is up.

Current prediction

Short term:symmetrical triangle points to 1,330

Medium term: triple bottom points to 1,260 - done

Long term:  double bottom (weekly and daily ) both points to 1,300

Currency: none

27th February: A small top gives rise to concern that a medium term top might emerge. But the long term trend is still up.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: triple bottom points to 1,260 - done

Long term:  double bottom (weekly and daily ) both points to 1,300

Currency: none

20th February: Failure of support in the first chart gives cause to be alert for a top. The index is still safe above 1,180.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: triple bottom points to 1,260 - done

Long term:  double bottom (weekly and daily ) both points to 1,300

Currency: none

13th February: Still a topping danger to beware of, but so long as support in the first chart holds, there is no cause for alarm.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: triple bottom points to 1,260 - done

Long term:  double bottom (weekly and daily ) both points to 1,300

Currency: none

6th February: The first chart shows a topping danger.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: triple bottom points to 1,260 - done

Long term:  double bottom (weekly and daily ) both points to 1,300

Currency: none

30th January: Nothing much to be said for this market as it breaks into new territory. There is still an outstanding top at 1,300. But the index is so close to target that the target is not helpful. We should be on the alert for a short term top. But in the absence of a confirmed top, presume the trend is up.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: triple bottom points to 1,260 - done

Long term:  double bottom (weekly and daily ) both points to 1,300

Currency: none

23rd January: Target on the daily chart is done, but the weekly chart suggests a little higher. Since prediction of stock market levels is not a science, I would suggest that it might be time to start looking out for tops. The first chart gives a scenario. But a scenario is by no means a target. The bull still reigns.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: triple bottom points to 1,260 - done

Long term:  double bottom (weekly and daily ) both points to 1,300

Currency: none

9th January: The index has a good chance of reaching target of 1,300 in the short term. The fund chart (last chart) paints a long term bullish picture.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: triple bottom points to 1,260.

Long term:  double bottom (weekly and daily ) both points to 1,300

Currency: none

---

2005
 
 

24th December: No change to speak of. green resistance in the first chart is still the operating obstacle.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom (weekly and daily ) both points to 1,300

Currency: none

19th December: The index is in a range between 1,000 and 1,2000. We will only have a clear idea of direction once the index leaves this range. However, the greater probability is that the long term trend will continue upside.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom (weekly and daily ) both points to 1,300

Currency: none

12th December: The index broke out of a nice double bottom last week. But the big test will come at the previous high of around 1,200. A rally above that level will likely see target of 1,300.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom (weekly and daily ) both points to 1,300

Currency: none

5th December: A strong rally last week improves the chances that the index will move to target of 1,300. The topping scenario danger is shown in the weekly chart, albeit not updated this week.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom (weekly and daily ) both points to 1,300

Currency: none

28th November: The index is still making a big top scenario. A close below 1,020 would trigger the top. But a rally above 1,200 would remove the threat.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom (weekly and daily ) both points to 1,300

Currency: none

21st November: The index is still in danger of topping.

14th November: Good supports but a top danger in the first chart.

7th November: The index looks dangerous unsupported. But the big test is down at 1,020, or thereabouts.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom (weekly and daily ) both points to 1,300

Currency: none

17th October: The top scenario in the first chart is developing. But nothing conclusive.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom (weekly and daily ) both points to 1,300

10th October: Top danger, but nothing definite. We are more likely to see the index move to target at around 1,250, or 1,300.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom (weekly and daily ) both points to 1,300

Currency: head and shoulders top points to 10,800 - done

26th September: The index is still on support on the weekly chart. But a double top has broken. Another week of falls would most likely fall below the crucial support and end the current bull run. A close next Friday on 1,000 or lower would be sufficient to indicate a fall back to 850.

19th September:   Long term supports holding. There is a danger of  a long term top in the first chart, but breakout would be at 940 - still a long way off. I would still presume the bull, until the long term support on the weekly chart breaks. Currency is on good support.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom (weekly and daily ) both points to 1,300

Currency: head and shoulders top points to 10,800

12th September: Nice rally. But the index is too volatile to make sense of at present. Keep an eye on the rising supports in the daily and weekly charts. So long as they remain unbroken, we may assume the bullish trend to continue.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom (weekly and daily ) both points to 1,300

Currency: head and shoulders top points to 10,800

5th September: The index charts give an uncertain picture. But the long term fund chart suggests that the market has hit a very good support. I'd like to see consolidation on that support to regain confidence in this volatile market.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom (weekly and daily ) both points to 1,300

Currency: head and shoulders top points to 10,800

29th August: The index charts suggest a double top looming, with a fall back to 850, if we see confirmation. But the fund chart suggests a mere pullback to the neckline of a long term double bottom. What does that mean? Index looks like a major trend reversal brewing. Fund suggests a merely short to medium term reversal, followed by another bull surge. Look to the support on the fund chart. If it holds, the bull is more likely to continue. Good support at around 970.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom (weekly and daily ) both points to 1,300

Currency: head and shoulders top points to 10,800

22nd August: Bit of a fall last week, and currency is falling too. But check out the channel in the weekly chart for a bit of encouragement.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom (weekly and daily ) both points to 1,300

Currency: head and shoulders top points to 10,800

8th August: The index is breaking new ground. Chances of seeing our target at around 1,300 are fairly good, provided no topping pattern intervenes. Volume remains strong.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom (weekly and daily ) both points to 1,300

Currency: head and shoulders top points to 10,800

1st August: A good chance of 1,250, due to the recent new high

25th July: A new recent high for the index increases the chances of a rally to 1,250 or 1,300.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom (weekly and daily ) both points to 1,300

Currency: head and shoulders top points to 10,800

20th July: Weak currency, a double top scenario, low recent volume all suggest danger for this market.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom (weekly and daily ) both points to 1,300

Currency: head and shoulders top points to 10,800

11th July: Top danger in the index and currency make this market look risky.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom (weekly and daily ) both points to 1,300

Currency: head and shoulders top points to 10,800

11th July: Top danger in the index and currency make this market look risky.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom (weekly and daily ) both points to 1,300

Currency: head and shoulders top points to 10,800

27th June: Double top danger on daily and weekly charts.

20th June: The index is retesting its previous high. If the index breaks the previous high, the danger of a double top would be diminished. Lower volume attending this rally is dangerous. But better not to guess.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom (weekly and daily ) both points to 1,300

Currency: none

6th June: No clear signal. The medium term bearish top is cancelled. The long term fund chart is bullish. So too is the long term weekly chart. Either chart could give a bullish signal if we get a new high.

Current prediction

Short term: head and shoulders top points to 970

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom (weekly and daily ) both points to 1,300

Currency: none

21st May: No great change from last week. Important support at around 1,030.

Current prediction

Short term: head and shoulders top points to 970

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom (weekly and daily ) both points to 1,300

Currency: none

16th May:  The index is still in danger of topping despite the recent rally. On the other hand, the fund chart paints a long term bullish scenario.

Current prediction

Short term: head and shoulders top points to 970

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom (weekly and daily ) both points to 1,300

Currency: none

25th April:  A very clear short term head and shoulders top points to around 970. There is support on the weekly chart at around this level.

Current prediction

Short term: head and shoulders top points to 970

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom (weekly and daily ) both points to 1,300

Currency: none

18th April: The index is in danger of topping. Given the weakness of the regional trend, it would be be surprising if the top broke and we saw a return to 950. But it's too early to say.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom (weekly and daily ) both points to 1,300

Currency: none
11th April: Top danger looms as the index crept up on lower than recent volume.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom (weekly and daily ) both points to 1,300

4th April: Keep alert for a top pattern, which might now be developing and which could signal a fall back to 950, or lower.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom (weekly and daily ) both points to 1,300

Currency: none

21st March: Still a fairly good chance of 1,300. But beware a fall of volume or a break of resistance in the first chart.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  1. double bottom (daily) points to 1,100 - done
                     2. double bottom (weekly and daily ) both points to 1,300

Currency: none

14th March: A week of moving sideways. Still testing resistance on the fund chart and currency is still weak.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  1. double bottom (daily) points to 1,100
                     2. double bottom (weekly and daily ) both points to 1,300

Currency: none

8th March: The market has reached our first target of around 1,100. Next target is 1,300. But the chart of the index is looking rather steep. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a bit of a correction soon. Chance of a drop in currency. But that needs to be monitored a bit more. The fund is still bullish.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  1. double bottom (daily) points to 1,100
                     2. double bottom (weekly and daily ) both points to 1,300

21st February: The index inched higher. Chance of 1,300 target is still fairly good, although the steepness of the recent rally suggests a bit of a breather (consolidation or pullback) is due.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  1. double bottom (daily) points to 1,100
                    2. double bottom (weekly and daily ) both points to 1,300

Currency: none

14th February: The index chart is looking rather steep.  But there is good reason to believe that the index is heading for 1,300.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  1. double bottom (daily) points to 1,100
                     2. double bottom (weekly and daily ) both points to 1,300

Currency: none

31st January: The index is struggling with strong resistance. A fall back to 900 would not surprise. But target of 1,300 is persuasive and likely this year.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  1. double bottom (daily) points to 1,100
                     2. double bottom (weekly and daily ) both points to 1,300

Currency: none

17th January: No significant change from last week. Resistance at around 1,030 is likely to hold the index for a while.

Current prediction:

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  1. double bottom (daily) points to 1,100
                     2. double bottom (weekly and daily ) both points to 1,300

10th January: Fairly good chance that the index will see 1,300 this year. Both the weekly and daily charts give this target. Note the theoretical problem with these targets, discussed below.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  1. double bottom (daily) points to 1,100
                     2. double bottom (weekly and daily ) both points to 1,300

Currency: none 

---

2004
20th December: Danger of a double top in the index. A few more weeks would be needed to see the pattern form and break out.
 
 

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  1. double bottom (daily) points to 1,100
                     2. double bottom (weekly) points to 1,300 - not yet confirmed

Currency: none

13th December: The index has turned on a strong resistance. But strong volume suggests that the index is not yet topping.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  1. double bottom (daily) points to 1,100
                     2. double bottom (weekly) points to 1,300 - not yet confirmed

Currency: none

6th December: The index has encountered a bit of resistance and might cool down for a while. But the medium term looks bullish, with target of 1,300 having a good chance.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  1. double bottom (daily) points to 1,100
                     2. double bottom (weekly) points to 1,300 - not yet confirmed

Currency: none

15th November: The index has broken out from all long term resistances. The long term patterns are not really bottoms as the index has not fallen from the two or three thousand level to bottom at the current level. But the solid volume suggests that the targets of 1,100 and 1,300 have a fair chance.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  1. double bottom (daily) points to 1,100
                     2. double bottom (weekly) points to 1,300 - not yet confirmed

Currency: none

25th October: The weekly breakout is still the most bullish indicator. Otherwise, there is a little bottom on the fund chart, which is bullish.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double bottom pointing to 870 - good as done

Long term:  double bottom (daily) points to 1,100 - not yet confirmed

Currency: none

18th October: Medium term target of 870 is almost done. There is a chance that a short term top is forming. There is strong resistance around 880,  so it would not be surprising if the index were topping at the current level. However, there is a breakout on the long term weekly chart that suggests that the index is in a strong bullish mode. Which signal should we believe? I would go with the long term weekly unless and until it is cancelled.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double bottom pointing to 870

Long term:  double bottom (daily) points to 1,100 - not yet confirmed

11th October: The index closed a little higher on Friday, making the breakout from the long term resistance on the weekly chart even more persuasive. Next resistance on the daily chart is at around 880.

4th October: The index has broken a key long term resistance on the weekly chart. It now faces daily resistance at 880 and a little medium term pattern points to 870.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double bottom pointing to 870

Long term:  double bottom (daily) points to 1,100 - not yet confirmed

Currency: none

20th September: The index is testing long term resistance in the second chart. But the long term bottom in the long term fund chart suggests that the market could soon make a significant breakout.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom (daily) points to 1,100 - not yet confirmed

Currency: none

4th September: A short term bottom in the first chart should not be considered too significant. Look to the long term resistances, especially the one at around 840.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom (daily) points to 1,100 - not yet confirmed

Currency: none

30th August: Some bearish top scenarios and strong resistances on the weekly charts. But given the bullish signals elsewhere in Asia, there is a chance that this market could escape the long term trend that has been operating since 1990.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom (daily) points to 1,100 - not yet confirmed

23rd August: Nothing clear to report. Supports and resistances are all we have at the moment. See the East Asian regional fund chart for a bullish hope.

Current prediction

Short term: double bottom pointing to 805 - cancelled

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom (daily) points to 1,100 - not yet confirmed

Currency: none

2nd August: A very stagnant week last week, but the index shows a top danger which requires monitoring.

Current prediction

Short term: double bottom pointing to 805 - questionable

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom (daily) points to 1,100 - not yet confirmed

26th July: The index is still in danger of topping. See the weekly chart. It shows a nasty top. A close at 700 would set off the fall to at least 620. But keep an eye on the regional trend. If the region rallies, this market is likely to follow.

Current prediction

Short term: double bottom pointing to 805 - questionable

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom (daily) points to 1,100 - not yet confirmed

Currency: none

12th July: A little short term pattern lacks volume and is therefore not reliable. The long term weekly chart still shows danger of topping. Only a close at around 850 would minimize that danger.

Current prediction

Short term: double bottom pointing to 805 - questionable

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom (daily) points to 1,100 - not yet confirmed

Currency: none

28th June: Top is cancelled on the medium term chart. But it is still a danger on the weekly chart.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double top points to 623 (log) , 609 (arithmetic)-cancelled.

Long term:  double bottom (daily) points to 1,100 - not yet confirmed

Currency: none

31st May: The index rebounded on good support at around 660. But there is still strong resistance to overcome at 840 and chance of a top on the weekly chart.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom (daily) points to 1,100 - not yet confirmed

Currency: none

10th May: No clear signal. The best indicators at present are the channel support in the second chart and the long term resistance in that chart.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom (daily) points to 1,100 - not yet confirmed

Currency: none

3rd May: Nothing clear for this market. The index has turned on long term resistance. If the rest of the region is entering a bear trend, chances are that this market will not break out from the long term resistance. Be prepared for a top, as shown in the first chart.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom (daily) points to 1,100 - not yet confirmed

Currency: none

26th April: The index has rallied to a new high and hit strong resistance, both on the daily and weekly charts.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom (daily) points to 1,100 - not yet confirmed

Currency: none

19th April: Still in danger from top scenarios.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom (daily) points to 1,100 - not yet confirmed

12th April: The index has cancelled a double top, but there are strong resistances to pass until 840.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom (daily) points to 1,100 - not yet confirmed

Currency: none

5th April: The index has rallied above the neckline of a short term top, cancelling it. Resistance at around 820 is the next big test.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom (daily) points to 1,100 - not yet confirmed

15th March: Looks dangerous. But the only clear indication of a top is that of the fund chart, which incorporates currency volatility. There are ominous turns on long term supports and a double top looming. But no breakout yet.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom (daily) points to 1,100 - not yet confirmed

8th March: Resistance on the long term charts and possible double top in the daily and fund charts give some warning that the index could be topping.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom (daily) points to 1,100 - not yet confirmed

Currency: none

1st March: A double top threatens, but volume is high, suggesting that the index will not top. 730 is the critical level.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom (daily) points to 1,100 - not yet confirmed

23rd February: The index is making a double top pattern. Last week's rally to a new recent high lowers the risk of a double top. But there are strong resistances nearby, thus the danger of a top should not be dismissed to readily.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom (daily) points to 1,100 - not yet confirmed

16th February: Danger of a short term double top. See first chart.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom (daily) points to 1,100 - not yet confirmed

Currency: none

9th February: The index is encountering strong resistance at the current level and up until around 880. The weekly resistance at around 820 is a major obstacle.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom (daily) points to 1,100 - not yet confirmed

26th January: Target reached at 785. Now a few obstacles to pass before we can confirm 1,100. See the long term resistances in the second chart.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  1. double bottom (daily) points to 785 - done
                    2. double bottom (daily) points to 1,100 - not yet confirmed

Currency: none

19th January: The index is approaching target of 785. Beyond that, there is resistance at around 800 and 850.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  1. double bottom (daily) points to 785
                    2. double bottom (daily) points to 1,100 - not yet confirmed

12th January: Targets in the 750 region nearly all done and resistance on the weekly chart is at around 775. But there is pattern that might point to above 1,100.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  1. double bottom (daily) points  to 750 - done
                    2. double bottom (weekly) points to 760 - done
                    3. double bottom (daily) points to 785
                    4. double bottom (daily) points to 1,100 - not yet confirmed

Currency: none 

---

2003
 
 

29th December: The index is heading to target of 750. Resistance at 710.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom (daily and weekly ) both point to 750 - not yet confirmed

Currency: none

24th November: The best indication comes from the weekly chart, which shows a rising support still holding. A possible wedge in the first chart could indicate a reversal of the current short term bear trend.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom (daily and weekly ) both point to 750 - not yet confirmed

Currency: none

17th November: The current short term falling trend could be an interlude before further rallies. But there is long term resistance to be overcome.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom (daily and weekly ) both point to 750 - not yet confirmed

17th November: No important changes: a top could be forming at the current level. But the trigger is 4,600.

10th November: Testing resistance at 670. Possibility of a double top, but the regional trend is still clearly bullish. Two targets of 750, but they are not reliable. A close above the resistance at 660 would be the best indicator for the index now.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom (daily and weekly ) both point to 750 - not yet confirmed

27th October: A little retracement last week as the index tests medium and long term resistances.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom (daily and weekly ) both points to 755 - not yet confirmed

Currency: none

20th October: A major long term resistance at around 670 is approaching (second chart). If that passes, we should expect at least the next resistance at around 720, and then, target of the long term bottom.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom (daily and weekly ) both points to 755 - not yet confirmed

13th October: The index is about to test resistance at around 670. If that breaks, the next resistance would be 800. The inverted double bottom in the first chart shows a target close to the 800 resistance.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom (daily and weekly ) both points to 755 - not yet confirmed

6th October: Our strange double bottom in the first chart could be working. A strong rally this week would suggest that the target of 750 is achievable. There is, however, strong resistance on the long term daily chart at around 670.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom (daily and weekly ) both points to 755 - not yet confirmed

Currency: none

22nd September: A week of nothing very exciting last week. Last week's comments hold.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom (daily and weekly ) both points to 755 - not yet confirmed

Currency: none

15th September: The index fell last week. Another few more points down, a week of consolidation and a rally on good volume would confirm the strangely formed double bottom with target of 755.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom (daily and weekly ) both points to 755 - not yet confirmed

Currency: none

8th September: The index broke out of a double bottom that points to around 755. The pattern is not a good one. It lacks persuasive volume and proportionality. There is also a weekly double bottom but that pattern lacks proportionality too. Resistance at around 660.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom (daily and weekly ) both points to 755 - not yet confirmed

1st September: Nothing much to go on. Our first chart shows a double bottom with a short second bottom. This is not the best of patterns. Compare the longer term fund chart below. It has a good double bottom and might be a better long term indicator for the market. The weekly chart doesn't give much information either.

18th August: No clear direction for the index. But rising volume since April is bullish.

11th August: The index is not giving clear signals. A short term top broke out during the week, only to be cancelled later in the week. Volume on the recovery was strong, suggesting bullish sentiment. But the medium to long term chart still looks dangerous.

4th August: We're still watching a possible top form with neckline at 500. A fall below 500 should easily see a fall to 450. On the other hand, the top scenario would be less likely if the index rallies above 550.

28th July: The fund chart has made a little double top and the index is in danger of making a top. If the index falls below 500, we could easily see a fall to the support at 450.

21st July: The index is now testing support and resistances. Recent volume has not been good. Therefore, a breakout from the bottom in the first chart would not be persuasive.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency: none, but a fair chance that the currency will rally to 7,700

5th July: The index has been rather quiet for a few weeks. But it is now testing medium term support. If support holds, there is good reason to expect a rally at least to next resistance at around 545.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency: none, but a fair chance that the currency will rally to 7,700

30th June: Nothing much to go on this week. We need to wait for a resistance to break or for a top to form.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency: none, but a fair chance that the currency will rally to 7,700

16th June: The index has almost reached target and has touched a resistance. However, there is no sign of topping and volume is still good. The trend is still bullish.

Current prediction

Short term: double bottom points to 530 - good as done

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency: none, but a fair chance that the currency will rally to 7,700

9th June: Good volume gives a good chance of seeing target at 530 in the next week or two.

Current prediction

Short term: double bottom points to 530

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency: none, but a fair chance that the currency will rally to 7,700

2nd June: The index has met short term channel resistance and the fund has met long term resistance. Chances of 520 are still good. But it is time to be alert for topping.

Current prediction

Short term: double bottom points to 520

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency: none, but a fair chance that the currency will rally to 7,700

26th May: A bit of sideways movement last week. Still waiting for target of 520.

Current prediction

Short term: double bottom points to 520

19th May: Still a fair chance of target of 520 despite resistance at 480.

Current prediction

Short term: double bottom points to 520

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency: none, but a fair chance that the currency will rally to 7,700

12th May: The index has good volume and looks quite bullish. I have a few doubts about the symmetry of the pattern in the second chart. The current rally looks like too much too soon. But the long term picture in the fund chart gives a more positive perspective. Currency is also looking bullish

Current prediction

Short term: double bottom points to 520

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency: none, but a fair chance that the currency will rally to 7,700

28th April: The short term picture is moderately encouraging. But I am sceptical of the ability of the index to rally much beyond its current level, due to considerations of symmetry, as shown on the second chart.

Current prediction

Short term: double bottom points to 530 - not yet confirmed

18th April: A nice little short term bottom could see the index rallying a bit further. But if we are to see a symmetrical double bottom, as shown in the first chart, below, we could be waiting as much as a year. Beware of a top at around 450. On the other hand, the index could rally without making a recognized pattern. Continually increasing volume would be the sign.

Current prediction

Short term: double bottom points to 530 - not yet confirmed

29th March: Resistance at 420 to 430. Much more volume would be required to make a persuasive bottom. No sign of good volume yet.

24th March: The index rallied sufficiently to cancel our top pointing to 345. There is a chance of a double bottom. But it's not a persuasive scenario.

Current prediction

Short term: triple top points to 349 (log), 345 (arithmetic) - cancelled

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency: none

17th March: The medium term top pointing to 350 has broken out, but not decisively. We need a close below 380 to be confident that the index will fall to the 350 level.

Current prediction

Short term: triple top points to 349 (log), 345 (arithmetic) - not yet confirmed

10th March: Still waiting for the top in the first chart to break. The second chart shows good support at the current level. However, due to the clear bearishness in the rest of the region, I would expect the support to fail and the top to prevail.

3rd March: Nothing much to report. We are still watching a possible double top. But there is no sign that the top is about to break. We will have to be patient.

24th February: No change. We are still waiting for a double top to break. Neckline is at 390.

10th February: The index is making a topping pattern. A fall to 380 would see a likely fall to 350, at least. Support is as low as 320.

3rd February: The index is in danger of making a short term top, which could see a fall back to 350 or lower.

27th January: The index is sitting on an important support. A fall below 390 would suggest a fall back to 350 or lower.

13th January: No indication of trend beyond a mere scenario.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency: none 

---

2002
 
 

23rd December: The index rallied last week instead of falling, as I had expected. The current rally could last up to 440. But I would be very surprised if it got much further and I would not be surprised if, in a few weeks, the index were testing 320 again.

Current prediction

Short term: rising wedge pointing to 325 - cancelled

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency: none

16th December: The index has broken out of a little wedge pointing to the recent low of around 325.

Current prediction

Short term: rising wedge pointing to 325

18th November: No change. I fear this could be a sleepy market for a while to come. Currency put on a percent or two last week and is now near its pre-October plunge point.

11th November: No predictions yet, just a few scenarios. If the scenario in the first chart below eventuates, we could see the index bottoming throughout next year.

2nd November: The index has touched a good support. But there is no indication of a short term bottom. A long term bottom, as shown on the weekly chart, could spend all of next year forming.

28th October: No significant change from last week. We are waiting to see whether the current support holds, in which case, there is a chance that a bottom might form.

19th October: The index fell last week to a good support. It is now a question of seeing whether a bottom will form or whether the index will fall to the next support.

12th October: The index is looking for support. Downside is 288 on the weekly chart.

7th October: The index is holding onto support at 410. Otherwise no change.

30th September: No substantial change last week. There are still good supports at the 400 level. The fourth chart shows a scenario entailing a fall to 350 and double bottom encompassing all of next year. If the supports in the first three charts break, a fall to 350, or lower, would be the next most likely scenario.

23rd September: The index has touched a good support and has a chance of bottoming. If it fails the support, there will be another nearby at 390. Lowest good support is at around 350.

16th September: The index is approaching good support at around 405. What happens then is anyone's guess.

9th September: Next good support is at 400. Keep an eye on currency, which is now on resistance.

2nd September: The support at the current level is good. If it fails, there are good supports at 400 and then 350. In the absence of predictions, we can only look at supports and wait for a bottom.

26th August: Index looks promising with a nice turn on support. Currency also has a chance of breaking out upside.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:medium term double top points to 432

Long term: none

Currency: none

19th August: The index is sitting on good support and the fund is looking bullish. A strong rebound would not surprise.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: medium term double top points to 432

12th August: Good double support at the current level. If it breaks, we are likely to see a fall back to the 400 level, with bottoming over the rest of this year. On the other hand, a break above 455, on strong volume, would suggest a short term bottom.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: medium term double top points to 432

22nd July: The bull still has a chance provided that the index doesn't break the support at 470. A close above 500 would be bullish if volume were strong.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: medium term double top points to 432

Long term: Reverse head and shoulders (sloping down neckline) pointing to 600 - now questionable

Currency: none

15th July: Alas, our bullish targets are questionable. The index is sitting on support at 470. The short term still looks weak. But with luck, we will soon see some bullish zest in the market. Currency is looking weak for the short term.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: medium term double top points to 432

Long term: 1.) reverse head and shoulders (sloping down neckline) pointing to 600 - now questionable
                    2.) reverse head and shoulders (sloping up neckline) pointing to 620- cancelled

Currency: double top pointing to 9,650

8th July: A double top on the weekly chart points to 470. This is persuasive. A fall to this level would still leave our reverse head and shoulders in tact, with target of 600. But below that level, we would give priority to the double top pointing to 435. The failure of the target pointing to 620 was a rarity. I have never seen such a good pattern fail. The bull has been downgraded to a bull with question mark. But I still favour the bull.
 

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: 1.) reverse head and shoulders (sloping down neckline) pointing to 600
                    2.) reverse head and shoulders (sloping up neckline) pointing to 600

Currency: none

1st July: The index is sitting on good support. But it cannot fall much further without cancelling our bullish patterns. (490 would be about the lowest safe point.) The weekly chart suggests a possible fall to 480. Such a fall would jeopardize our target of 620 and throw into doubt the target of 600. I should stress that the pattern pointing to 620 is a very good one. Probability therefore favours the success, rather than failure of such a target. But probability is not certainty.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: 1.) reverse head and shoulders (sloping down neckline) pointing to 600
                    2.) reverse head and shoulders (sloping up neckline) pointing to 620

Currency: none

24th June: The index is again testing channel support at 520. The channel in question is steep. But after the breakout from the reverse head and shoulders pattern, we would expect a steep and swift move to target at 620. Accordingly, a failure of the channel support would cast doubt on our target. Probability still favours the target of 620.

10th June: I expect the index to move up this week. But if we see a fall to 500, we can still have confidence in the target of 620. A fall below 500 would cancel the target. But I should emphasize that the pattern that points to 620 is well formed and with good volume. There is no such thing as a sure thing, but such patterns rarely fail.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: 1.) reverse head and shoulders (sloping down neckline) pointing to 600
                    2.) reverse head and shoulders (sloping up neckline) pointing to 620

Currency: none

3rd June: The index has turned on the neckline of our reversal pattern, adding to the chance that we will soon see 620.

27th May: The index is still bullish and target of 620 remains valid provided the index remains above neckline support at around 490.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: 1.) reverse head and shoulders (sloping down neckline) pointing to 600
                    2.) reverse head and shoulders (sloping up neckline) pointing to 620 - Now excellent volume.

Currency: none

13th May: There is a danger of a short term top that could take the index back to 500. But 620 is still the greater probability.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: 1.) reverse head and shoulders (sloping down neckline) pointing to 600 - questionable due to inadequate volume on breakout
                    2.) reverse head and shoulders (sloping up neckline) pointing to 620 - Now excellent volume.

Currency: none

6th May: The target of 600, and then 620 are still highly likely.

28th April: I am still bullish for this market. The market may fall a bit in the short term. But chances of it reaching 620 are excellent.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: 1.) reverse head and shoulders (sloping down neckline) pointing to 600 - questionable due to inadequate volume on breakout
                    2.) reverse head and shoulders (sloping up neckline) pointing to 620-Now excellent volume.

Currency: none

21st April: The market now has sufficient volume to inspire confidence that it is in bull mode. We might see a fall to as low as 520. But there is a high probability that the index will soon see 620.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: 1.) reverse head and shoulders (sloping down neckline) pointing to 600 - questionable due to inadequate volume on breakout
                    2.) reverse head and shoulders (sloping up neckline) pointing to 620- also  inadequate volume on breakout.

Currency: none

8th April: The index has made a nice long term pattern. But volume isn't sufficient to inspire maximum confidence. Nonetheless, a good chance of 600 in the next month or two.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: 1.) reverse head and shoulders (sloping down neckline) pointing to 600 - questionable due to inadequate volume on breakout
                    2.) reverse head and shoulders (sloping up neckline) pointing to 620- also  inadequate volume on breakout.

Currency: double bottom points to 9,250

31st March: A fair chance at 600. The weekly chart is impressive. And the fund is also bullish. Currency also appears to be bullish. Resistance at around 495 - 510.

9th March: A reversal pattern on the weekly chart points to 580. There is resistance at 540. If volume picks up, we can expect that resistance to break. Currency is looking strong.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: reverse head and shoulders pointing to 600 - questionable due to inadequate volume

Currency: double bottom points to 9,250

2nd March: The weekly chart shows that the index has not yet broken out of a long term reversal pattern. A close at 470, or better, this Friday, with strong volume, would be the signal for the long term reversal. We could then hope for a rally to around 600. Currency looks strong.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: reverse head and shoulders pointing to 600 - questionable due to inadequate volume

Currency: possible bottom

25th February: Volume is still inadequate to give a firm prediction. If volume picks up, we can expect the index to rally to 600.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: reverse head and shoulders pointing to 600 - questionable due to inadequate volume

Currency: none

18th February: The index is on the verge of breaking out of a nice reversal pattern. But volume needs to surge before we can be confident of a valid reversal.

2nd February: The index is rallying nicely, but volume has not yet developed to a level that would inspire confidence of gains much beyond the next resistance at around 490.

28th January: Further rallies last week take the index close to one or two resistances. But more volume is needed in order to persuade us that the market is making a long term reversal.

6th January: Nothing exciting with this market. The best hope is that the index is bottoming on a long term support. But we would need to see volume build up before we could be hopeful of a rally.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency: none 

---

 
 

2001

24th December: Long term support is holding nicely. But volume is still inadequate to inspire hope for a reversal.

10th December: The index is still lagging behind the rest of the region. There is no sign of anything happening at present. Our best hope is that the market will pick up on volume much greater than that of recent months. In that event, we could expect a reversal of the long term falling trend.

24th November: No indication of a rally in the short term. Unlike the markets of the rest of Asia, volume in this market has not started to happen.

19th November: More volume would be needed for a short term bottom. If that happens, there is a good chance for a longer term bottom as the index has turned again on a long term support.

9th November: The index spent the last couple of weeks wandering around aimlessly. Nothing interesting in volume patterns either. We must wait patiently for something persuasive.

22nd October: No change this week. A short term double bottom lacks volume. The index is more likely to drift around.

15th October: The index has turned on a long term support, shown on the daily chart. But there is no evidence of a bottom.

8th October: Supports approaching. Now all of our bearish targets are done. So it is just a matter of awaiting a bottom. Until we see a bottom, we should presume the trend is down.

1st October: With luck a retesting of support at around 360. If that fails, 320 would be the next support.

17th September: The medium term outlook for the market could still be quite bullish, provided that the support around 410 to 415 holds. If it fails, a fall back to the 350 level would not surprise.

10th September: The index is still drifting around aimlessly. 430 is an important support. If the index falls much below this level, there is a good chance of a fall back to 380, or lower.

27th August: Nothing strong to go on. The index is consolidating, as is the currency.

20th August: Not much pushing the index last week. There is a short term top scenario that could take the index lower, perhaps to 360. I would not expect any great rally before November or December, if at all. Any surprise rally is unlikely to take the index beyond 490.

13th August: No great change, except to say that the market still looks very good. Volume is still good and supports are holding nicely.

6th August: The index is behaving according to my scenarios. But currency has rebounded to a point where it is safe to cancel the target of 12,600.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency: 12,600 target is cancelled.

30th July: The index has a chance of bottoming through the rest of this year, provided that it can remain above 400 and volume does not dwindle away.

23rd July: Resistance at the current level and then at around 490. Volume is still inadequate to suggest that the market is bottoming. The fund, on the other hand, looks more hopeful. Currency has hit resistance.

Current prediction

Currency: 12,600 is less likely given the strong rebound of the currency on Monday 23rd.

16th July: The market was stable last week. Volume was fair. But it needs to build more in order for resistances to break.

9th July: A strong long term resistance is unlikely to be passed, unless a huge spike of volume appears from nowhere.

23rd June: Further gains depend much on volume. At present, volume is rather lacklustre. Resistance at 468 will be an interesting test.

18th June: Some good bullish signals have met with long term resistances. The market needs to break 430 to make further progress.

Current prediction

Short term: double bottom pointing to 440, cancelled if index closes below 390.

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency: supported at the current level, but 12,600 is still likely.

4th June: The index has made a short term reversal pattern. Volume is good. Thus there is a fair chance that the index will hit 440, provided it does not fall below neckline at 390.

Current prediction

Short term: double bottom pointing to 440, cancelled if index closes below 390.

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency: supported at the current level, but 12,600 is still likely.

28th May: The index broke out of a short term reverse head and shoulders. But volume is too low to be encouraging. The greater probability is that the index will turn on long term resistance. Let us see.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: a double top arithmetic target is cancelled due to lapse of time.

Currency: supported at the current level, but 12,600 is still likely.

21st May: The fund could be making a short term bottom. But the index lacks volume. It is therefore difficult to get excited about a reversal.

7th May: Time is running out for the prediction of 300 on the long term double top. But the index could drift down to that level without a valid prediction. In the absence of a reversal, we should presume that the market is still subject to the bearish trend. And there is no sign of a reversal at the moment. The currency is still subject to a prediction of 12,600.

30th April: The index is sitting on good support. But there is no sign of a reversal at the current level. Currency also looks as though it has further to fall. Although it is supported at around 12,000.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: a double top points to somewhere between 360 (log-done) and 260 (arithmetic) (the previous bottom). Weekly pattern points to around 320 on an arithmetic scale.

Currency: supported at the current level, but 12,500 is still likely.

23rd April: The weekly chart shows the index on a good support. But the daily chart shows the same support broken. According to the daily chart, the next good long term support is around 290.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double top points to 340 - done

Long term: a double top points to somewhere between 360 (log) and 260 (arithmetic) (the previous bottom). Weekly pattern points to around 320 on an arithmetic scale.

Currency: supported at the current level, but 12,500 is still likely.

9th April: A medium term target points to 340. After that there are arithmetic targets. But these targets need not be reached. However, we are likely to see the index fall with the rest of the region until a good support is touched. Accordingly, we are likely to see to the index fall below 300 in coming months, should the current bear trend continue, as I expect it will.

2nd April: The index has rebounded after reaching log target at 360 and touching a long term support. If the current long term support fails, there is a danger of a fall to 225.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double top points to 340.

Long term: a double top points to somewhere between 360 (log) and 260 (arithmetic) (the previous bottom). Weekly pattern points to around 320 on an arithmetic scale.

Currency: good chance of falling to the 12,000 region.

19th March: The index is heading to target at 360. But the index is unlikely to stop there. Nothing looks like it will stop the bear now. A new low of 210 is possible.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double top points to 340.

Long term: a double top points to somewhere between 360 and 260 (the previous bottom). Weekly pattern points to around 320 on an arithmetic scale.

Currency: good chance of falling to the 12,000 region.

12th March: If the long enduring long term support breaks, 370 is likely. A short term top suggests that the long term support will soon break.

Current prediction

Short term: Double top has broken. A close below 408 will confirm around 370.

Medium term: none

Long term: a double top points to somewhere between 360 and 260 (the previous bottom) - cancelled on a rally above 530. Weekly pattern points to around 300 on an arithmetic scale.

Currency: good chance of falling to the 12,000 region.

5th March: Nothing exciting happening with the index. Could be a little double top. But it hasn't broken yet. Currency is the big issue this week. A long term support has broken. There is a good chance now that currency will fall back to the 12,000 region

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: a double top points to somewhere between 360 and 260 (the previous bottom) - cancelled on a rally above 530. Weekly pattern points to around 300 on an arithmetic scale.

Currency: good chance of falling to the 12,000 region.

26th February: Still a bullish scenario for the index. But it's too early to tell whether it will happen. Best to presume the prevailing bearish trend until evidence suggests the contrary.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: a double top points to somewhere between 360 and 260 (the previous bottom) - cancelled on a rally above 530. Weekly pattern points to around 300 on an arithmetic scale.

Currency: supports at around 9,500 - 9,800

19th February: The index is not giving a good indication of direction. But the fund still looks as though it has made a bottom.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double bottom points to 480

Long term: a double top points to somewhere between 360 and 260 (the previous bottom) - cancelled on a rally above 530. Weekly pattern points to around 300 on an arithmetic scale.

Currency: supports at around 9,500 - 9,800

12th February: Our little double bottom pointing to 480 is cancelled. This leaves two scenarios: one that the index is making a larger bottom at the current level.

The second scenario is that the index is going to target at 360. This scenario would not be confirmed unless the index fell through 400. But it is the greater probability until we get a new reversal pattern, such as the one that failed, or until the double top expires in May.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double bottom points to 480

Long term: a double top points to somewhere between 360 and 260 (the previous bottom) - cancelled on a rally above 530. Weekly pattern points to around 300 on an arithmetic scale.

Currency: supports at around 9,500 - 9,800

5th February: A medium term double bottom broke out on good volume last Friday. 480 is a valid target. The long term target of 360 is now questionable, but not cancelled. The best scenario now is for the index to continue a leisurely rally to around 515 and then make a shoulder.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double bottom points to 480

Long term: a double top points to somewhere between 360 and 260 (the previous bottom) - cancelled on a rally above 530. Weekly pattern points to around 300 on an arithmetic scale.

Currency: supports at around 9,500 - 9,800

22nd January: This market could go either way. There is nothing encouraging, as with other markets in Asia. But at least long term supports are holding. With luck, the index will bottom, following the regional trend.

---

2000
 
 

18th December: A little double top points back to 400. The currency has a chance of reversing, if it breaks 9,350.

Current prediction

Short term: double top points to 400.

Medium term: none

Long term: a double top points to somewhere between 360 and 260 (the previous bottom) - cancelled on a rally above 530. Weekly pattern points to around 300 on an arithmetic scale.
A head and shoulders top, not yet confirmed, points to 270 on a logarithmic scale and 200 on an arithmetic scale. 225 is the lowest support.

Currency: supports at around 9,500 - 9,800

4th December: All quiet on this front. We have seen the index wiggling along in a sideways motion since September with nothing decisive happening. There is nothing persuasive to indicate that this trendless trend will change, except, perhaps, a long term resistance that must either break or turn the index south. That is as much as to say that the index will soon either rise or fall. Not very helpful I'm afraid.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: a double top points to somewhere between 360 and 260 (the previous bottom) - cancelled on a rally above 530. Weekly pattern points to around 300 on an arithmetic scale.
A head and shoulders top, not yet confirmed, points to 270 on a logarithmic scale and 200 on an arithmetic scale. 225 is the lowest support.

Currency: supports at around 9,500 - 9,800

27th November: Some bullish signals are not reliable due to the lack of breakout volume. I also doubt the Indonesian market will make much of a rally while the rest of the region looks weak.

20th November: Nothing much to report. The index is making a triple bottom on the short term chart. But low volume does not support a rally. Otherwise, the index is clinging to supports and resistances.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: a double top points to somewhere between 360 and 260 (the previous bottom) - cancelled on a rally above 530. Weekly pattern points to around 300 on an arithmetic scale.
A head and shoulders top, not yet confirmed, points to 270 on a logarithmic scale and 200 on an arithmetic scale. 225 is the lowest support.

Currency: supports at around 9,500 - 9,800

13th November: No change: we are still in limbo, with the bearish predictions still valid. Any interruption to the bearish targets would require a nice little bottoming pattern. We have a little pattern forming. But it lacks sufficient volume on the right hand side. It could just as easily break downside. Until such a pattern breaks out, we should presume bearishness.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: a double top points to somewhere between 360 and 260 (the previous bottom) - cancelled on a rally above 530. Weekly pattern points to around 300 on an arithmetic scale.
A head and shoulders top, not yet confirmed, points to 270 on a logarithmic scale and 200 on an arithmetic scale. 225 is the lowest support.

Currency: supports at around 9,500 - 9,800

6th November: Another chance for a bottom, interrupting the target of 360. If the index breaks 430 on strong volume, there is a chance that the targets of 360 and 260 will not happen.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: a double top points to somewhere between 360 and 260 (the previous bottom) - cancelled on a rally above 530. Weekly pattern points to around 300 on an arithmetic scale.
A head and shoulders top, not yet confirmed, points to 270 on a logarithmic scale and 200 on an arithmetic scale. 225 is the lowest support.

Currency: supports at around 9,500 - 9,800

30th October: The long term support at around 400 is holding tenaciously. But the double bottom scenario that last week gave hope for a reversal has dissipated. We are now left with a valid log target of 360 and a new target of 270 that will be confirmed if the index falls below 400. Probabilities favour the bear.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: a double top points to somewhere between 360 and 260 (the previous bottom) - cancelled on a rally above 530. Weekly pattern points to around 300 on an arithmetic scale.
A head and shoulders top, not yet confirmed, points to 270 on a logarithmic scale and 200 on an arithmetic scale. 225 is the lowest support.

Currency: supports at around 9,500 - 9,800

23rd October: Chance of a little double bottom at the current level. This could make use of the good long term support and form a bottom for the index. But it's too soon to consider such a scenario. The index is still subject to a couple of bearish targets, the least of which is 360. Nothing has yet cancelled that target.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: a double top points to somewhere between 360 and 260 (the previous bottom) - cancelled on a rally above 530. Weekly pattern points to around 300 on an arithmetic scale.
A head and shoulders top, not yet confirmed, points to 270 on a logarithmic scale and 200 on an arithmetic scale. 225 is the lowest support.

Currency: resistance at around 8,100

16th October: The index spent last week further consolidating on a good long term support. However, chances are high that the support will not hold the index much longer. We still have a valid log target of 360. And if the index falls a little below 400, as it would if the log target of 360 were to be reached, we will have a new target of 270. But at 270 there is no long term support. The next long term support would be 225. My guess is that, unless we have a surprise interruption, we are going to see the index fall to 225 within the next few months.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: a double top points to somewhere between 360 and 260 (the previous bottom) - cancelled on a rally above 530. Weekly pattern points to around 300 on an arithmetic scale.
A head and shoulders top, not yet confirmed, points to 270 on a logarithmic scale and 200 on an arithmetic scale. 225 is the lowest support.

Currency: resistance at around 8,100

9th October: The top pointing at least to 360 is still valid. A new top will break giving a target of 270.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: a double top points to somewhere between 360 and 260 (the previous bottom) - cancelled on a rally above 530. Weekly pattern points to around 300 on an arithmetic scale.
A head and shoulders top, not yet confirmed, points to 270 on a logarithmic scale and 200 on an arithmetic scale. 225 is the lowest support.

Currency: resistance at around 8,100

2nd October: The index is consolidating on a long term support. The support does not give any indication that it will prevent the index from reaching our long term target of at least 360.

25th September: A bit of up and down last week, left the index pretty much where it was the week before.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: a double top points to somewhere between 360 and 260 (the previous bottom) - cancelled on a rally above 530. Weekly pattern points to around 300 on an arithmetic scale.
A head and shoulders top points to 290 on a logarithmic scale and 200 on an arithmetic scale. 225 is the lowest support.

Currency: resistance at around 8,100

18th September: The index has broken a new top that points to 290, at least. 350 is the next good support.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: a double top points to somewhere between 360 and 260 (the previous bottom) - cancelled on a rally above 530. Weekly pattern points to around 300 on an arithmetic scale.
A head and shoulders top points to 290 on a logarithmic scale and 200 on an arithmetic scale. 225 is the lowest support.

Currency: resistance at around 8,100

11th September: The index is on a good long term support. But the long term double top is likely to break it.

Current prediction

Short term: a head and shoulders top pointing to 450

Medium term: none

Long term: a double top points to somewhere between 360 and 260 (the previous bottom) - cancelled on a rally above 530. Weekly pattern points to around 300 on an arithmetic scale.

Currency: resistance at around 8,100

4th September: The index has clearly turned on the neckline of the long term double top with a minimum target of 360. The only chance of interruption comes from the fund, which is still above a good support.

Current prediction

Short term: a head and shoulders top pointing to 450

Medium term: none

Long term: a double top points to somewhere between 360 and 260 (the previous bottom) - cancelled on a rally above 530. Weekly pattern points to around 300 on an arithmetic scale.

Currency: resistance at around 8,100

14th August: The index made an impressive rally last Friday. It cancelled a short term double top pointing to 470. But the long term pattern, pointing at least to 380, is still valid. Currency is strengthening, but it will meet resistance at around 8,100.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: a double top points to somewhere between 360 and 260 (the previous bottom) - cancelled on a rally above 530. Weekly pattern points to around 300 on an arithmetic scale.

Currency: resistance at around 8,100
 
 

7th August: The index did nothing exciting last week, merely pulling back to the short term double top. The outlook for the next few months is still bearish. Currency, on the other hand, could be reversing.

31st July: A turn on the long term neckline confirms the impending fall of the index to 360, as a minimum target. Failure at that level could see a fall to as low as 225.

Current prediction

Short term: double top points to 470

Medium term: none

Long term: a double top points to somewhere between 360 and 260 (the previous bottom) - cancelled on a rally above 530. Weekly pattern points to around 300 on an arithmetic scale.

Currency: none

24h July: The short term is looking a little bearish, as is the medium term and the long term. But currency has made a little bottom. With luck it will reverse at the current level or reverse after retesting 9,800.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: a double top points to somewhere between 365 and 260 (the previous bottom) - cancelled on a rally above 530. Weekly pattern points to around 300 on an arithmetic scale.

Currency: none

17th July: The index is making a short term top. If it breaks, the long term double top will be confirmed.

10th July: The index looks like it has pulled back to the neckline of our double top. But there is a chance that it is bottoming at the current level. We shall have to wait a week or two.

3rd July: The index has been rallying on fair volume. It has passed the putative neckline of our long term double top, rendering that pattern less reliable. But there is no clear reversal pattern, confirming the end of the medium term bearish trend. Accordingly, the long term double top is still a threat.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: a double top points to somewhere between 365 and 260 (the previous bottom) - cancelled on a rally above 520 or 530. Weekly pattern points to around 300 on an arithmetic scale.

Currency: none

26th June: The rally last week looks like a mere pullback to the long term double top. But there is hope for a little reversal pattern forming at the current level. We need to see a break above 540 on strong volume to confirm such a reversal. Otherwise, the greater probability is that the index will fall below 400.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: a double top points to somewhere between 365 and 260 (the previous bottom) - cancelled on a rally above 520 or 530. Weekly pattern points to around 300 on an arithmetic scale.

19th June: The index could go either way at the moment. There is a valid bearish target. But there are good supports at the current level. If the region is to get a rally, it is likely that the JCI will shrug off its bearishness. On the other hand, if the index does not rally above 510 within the next few weeks, the chances will increase that the index will fall to a point close to its previous bottom.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: a double top points to somewhere between 365 and 260 (the previous bottom) - cancelled on a rally above 520 or 530. Weekly pattern points to around 300 on an arithmetic scale.

12th June: The index is subject to a big double top pointing to around 330 or 300. The pattern is valid. But the pattern is not quite reliable at the moment, due to the lack of pullback confirmation.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: a double top points to somewhere between 365 and 260 (the previous bottom) - cancelled on a rally above 520 or 530. Weekly pattern points to around 300 on an arithmetic scale.

Currency: none

5th June: The index has broken a big double top that points to 325 on a log scale. The only hope of interruption is a possible wedge. A rally above 520 or 530 on big volume would cancel the bearish target.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: a double top points to 325 - cancelled on a rally above 520 or 530.

15th May: The index is still hanging on nicely. 480 is the critical support.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: a double bottom or reverse head and shoulders pointing to between 800. Good volume. But twice failing to pass 700, followed by a steep decline, makes the prediction unreliable.

Currency: heading for 7,900

8th May: Nothing much happened last week. The index is still poised on supports. 500 - 490 is still the crucial region of support.

1st May: The index is sitting on long term support. A fall to 480 will change the long term trend to bearish. But that hasn't happened yet. And there are still bullish scenarios to consider.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: head and shoulders top points to 490. But it is questionable, due to good long term support.

Long term: a double bottom or reverse head and shoulders pointing to between 800. Good volume. But twice failing to pass 700, followed by a steep decline, makes the prediction unreliable.

Currency: heading for 7,900

24th April: The index kept out of mischief last week. A fall below 500 will break the current long term support. The long term support in the weekly chart has already broken.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: head and shoulders top points to 490. But it is questionable, due to good long term support.

Long term: a double bottom or reverse head and shoulders pointing to between 800. Good volume. But twice failing to pass 700, followed by a steep decline, makes the prediction unreliable.

Currency: heading for 7,900

17th April: The index fell to long term support today. Further falls will give bearish targets. Stay tuned this week through the Alert List.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: head and shoulders top points to 490. But it is questionable, due to good long term support.

Long term: a double bottom or reverse head and shoulders pointing to between 800. Good volume. But twice failing to pass 700, followed by a steep decline, makes the prediction unreliable.

Currency: heading for 7,900

25th March: Not much went on in this market last week.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: head and shoulders top points to 490. But it is questionable, due to good long term support.

Long term: a double bottom or reverse head and shoulders pointing to between 800. Good volume. But twice failing to pass 700, followed by a steep decline, makes the prediction unreliable.

Currency: should stay in the 7,000 range for a while.

20th March: The index could be making a top or a bottom at the moment. There is no clear indication of direction. But the long term looks good, due the steadily building volume over the last year or two. The balance of probabilities therefore still favours a bullish outlook.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: head and shoulders top points to 490. But it is questionable, due to good long term support.

Long term: a double bottom or reverse head and shoulders pointing to between 800. Good volume. But twice failing to pass 700, followed by a steep decline, makes the prediction unreliable.

Currency: should stay in the 7,000 range for a while.

13th March: A support can be found for the level at which the index turned last week. There are still bullish and bearish scenarios for the index. But the bullish scenario has greater probability due to good volume.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: head and shoulders top points to 490. But it is questionable, due to good long term support.

Long term: a double bottom or reverse head and shoulders pointing to between 800. Good volume. But twice failing to pass 700, followed by a steep decline, makes the prediction unreliable.

Currency: should stay in the 7,000 range for a while.

6th March: The index is now heading for 490. There is weekly support at 540, suggesting a possible touch intra-week and a sharp rebound to 540 one Friday. That's just a guess. The other possibility is that the weekly support at 540 fails. I'm afraid we will have to question the target of 800, now that the index has failed twice to breach the 700 mark.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: head and shoulders top points to 490.

Long term: a double bottom or reverse head and shoulders pointing to between 800. Good volume. But twice failing to pass 700, followed by a steep decline, makes the prediction unreliable.

Currency: should stay in the 7,000 range for a while.

21st February: The index is clinging to long term supports. If the supports fail, the danger is a fall back to 490.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: head and shoulders top points to 490. But the probability of such a fall is low, given the good wedge formation and leg support at 550.

Long term: a double bottom or reverse head and shoulders pointing to between 800. Good volume. Good chance of success.

Currency: should stay in the 7,000 range for a while.

14th February: A bit of volume improves the chances of the index rebounding to 700 in the short term. Our target of 800 is still valid. Therefore, we can hope for the neckline at 700 to break. Once broken on good volume, the index has a good chance of breaking 1,100.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: a double bottom or reverse head and shoulders pointing to between 800. Good volume. Good chance of success.

Currency: should stay in the 7,000 range for a while.

7th February: The index is still bullish. It turned last week on channel support. A rally to 700 can be soon expected. But the currency is weakening and could fall to 8,300 in the short term.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: a double bottom or reverse head and shoulders pointing to between 800. Good volume. Good chance of success.

Currency: double top points to 8,300 unless the currency rebounds above 7,500.

31st January: The next support is at 625. But the long term prospects look good as volume increases. Currency could weaken by about 10% in the short term.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: a double bottom or reverse head and shoulders pointing to between 800. Good volume. Good chance of success.

Currency: none

10th January: A medium term patterns confirms our long term target of 800. But we have resistance approaching at around 710. But the long term target of 800 is valid and a higher target, above 1,000, could well be triggered before the index reaches the target of 800.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: a term reverse head and shoulders confirms the long term target of 800.

Long term: a double bottom or reverse head and shoulders pointing to between 800. Good volume. Good chance of success.

Currency: none

---

All predictions from 1996 to 1999