Recent History of Nikkei Stock Average Index
2008

14th July:  Resistance at 14,400 turned the index suggesting a continuation of the year-long bear market. A retest of previous lows is likely.

Current prediction

Long term:   double top (daily) points to 11,200 (log), 10,300 (daily)

Currency: target of 94 as good as done.

7th July:  A turn at the likely resistance at 14,400 turned the index suggesting a continuation of the year-long bear market.

Current prediction

Long term:  1. double top (daily) points to 11,200 (log), 10,300 (daily)
                    2. double top (weekly) points to 12,200 - done  (log), 11,600 (weekly)

Currency: target of 94 as good as done.

30th June:  A turn at the likely resistance at 14,400 turned the index suggesting a continuation of the year-long bear market.

Current prediction

Long term:  1. double top (daily) points to 11,200 (log), 10,300 (daily)
                    2. double top (weekly) points to 12,200 - done  (log), 11,600 (weekly)

Currency: target of 94

12th May:  The first chart shows the index in a bearish trend. The ETF chart gives a more bullish outlook. I would want to see a close above 14,400 in order to be confident that the bearish trend that commenced in August last year has ended.

Current prediction

Long term:  1. double top (daily) points to 11,200 (log), 10,300 (daily)
                    2. double top (weekly) points to 12,200 - done  (log), 11,600 (weekly)

Currency: target of 94

5th May:  The index is testing resistance at 14,200. A rally above this level will be bullish. The yen has turned on resistance at 96.

28th April:  No change to speak of. The trend is still bearish. The resistance in the first chart is well-defined. We are still looking at a target of 11,200. Support is at around 10,800. These levels are still the greater probability while the index is still in the orange channel in the first chart.

Current prediction

Short term:  none

Medium term: none

Long term:  1. double top (daily) points to 11,200 (log), 10,300 (daily)
                    2. double top (weekly) points to 12,200 - done  (log), 11,600 (weekly)

Currency: target of 94

21st April:  No change to speak of. The trend is still bearish. The resistance in the first chart is well-defined. We are still looking at a target of 11,200. Support is at around 10,800. These levels are still the greater probability while the index is still in the orange channel in the first chart.

Current prediction

Short term:  none

Medium term: none

Long term:  1. double top (daily) points to 11,200 (log), 10,300 (daily)
                    2. double top (weekly) points to 12,200 - done  (log), 11,600 (weekly)

Currency: target of 94

7th April:  Last week's rally was a pullback to resistance shown on the first chart. Nothing much otherwise. The trend is still bearish.

Current prediction

Short term:  none

Medium term: none

Long term:  1. double top (daily) points to 11,200 (log), 10,300 (daily)
                    2. double top (weekly) points to 12,200 - done  (log), 11,600 (weekly)

Currency: target of 94

31st March:  Several good supports but the trend is still bearish.

Current prediction

Short term:  none

Medium term: none

Long term:  1. double top (daily) points to 11,200 (log), 10,300 (daily)
                    2. double top (weekly) points to 12,200 - done  (log), 11,600 (weekly)

Currency: target of 94

24th March:  The index fell below support at 12,000 and rebounded. It is still in a bearish channel. Support on the weekly chart gives some bottoming hope.

10th March: Good support on the first chart. If it fails, consider a fall back to 1,200.

3rd March:  The weekly chart shows a clear breakout from a top pointing back to the support of 12,000, created by the bottom of 2002 to 2005. If this were to happen, the daily chart suggests a target of 11,200. Support at 13,200 might give some short term relief.

Currency has a bullish target of 106.

Current prediction

Short term:  none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double top (weekly) points to 12,200 (log), 11,600 (weekly)

Currency: likely to retest resistance at 102, thereafter, a target of around 94

25th February:  The weekly chart shows a clear breakout from a top pointing back to the support of 12,000, created by the bottom of 2002 to 2005. If this were to happen, the daily chart suggests a target of 11,200. Support at 13,200 might give some short term relief.

Currency has a bullish target of 106.

21st January: The weekly chart shows a clear breakout from a top pointing back to the support of 12,000, created by the bottom of 2002 to 2005. If this were to happen, the daily chart suggests a target of 11,200. Support at 13,200 might give some short term relief.

Currency has a bullish target of 106.

Current prediction

Short term:  none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double top (weekly) points to 12,200 (log), 11,600 (weekly)

Currency: likely to retest resistance at 102, thereafter, a target of around 94

14th January: The weekly chart shows a clear breakout from a top pointing back to the support created by the bottom of 2002 to 2005. If this were to happen, the daily chart suggests a target of 11,200.

Currency has a bullish target of 106.

4th January 2008: Failure of the four year support in the first chart and breakout from a weekly top are bearish indicators for the index. It's still too soon to confirm a trend, but the danger signals are ominous.

Currency has a bullish target of 106.

Current prediction

Short term:  none

Medium term: head and shoulders top points to 13,700 - not yet confirmed

Long term:  none

Currency: a double bottom points to 106

2007

17th December: Still a chance that the index can avert the bearish scenario shown in the first chart.

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

29th January: Strong resistances in the first and second chart mean that the index must make some important breakouts in order that the bull of last year may continue. Support in the ETF chart, EWJ, is encouraging.

 

8th January: Nothing much in the short term. The EWJ chart gives hope for a double bottom. But that is a way off. Currency appears to be bottoming on a good long term support.

20th November: The short term trend still appears bearish.

13th November: The index has failed a medium term support which could see a fall back to 14,500 or lower. The currency, on the other hand, could well be bottoming.

21st August: Medium term bearish top is cancelled. The index has a double bottom pointing to 17,300. But the target is not confirmed. The ETF is much weaker than the Nikkei and could indicate failure.

Current prediction

Short term: double bottom points to 17,300 - not yet confirmed

Medium term: double top points to 13,380 - cancelled

Long term:  none

Currency: none

7th August: The index is making a double bottom in the first chart. But volume is weak. Resistance up until around 16,000. See the yellow channel in the first chart.

15th May: The Nikkei is now testing an important support in the first chart. Another fall would give rise to the danger of a turn on long term resistance in the second chart and the ETF chart, below. A breakout from the ETF chart would suggest that the market is midway in a long term bullish run.  Some bullish scenarios for some ADRs.

8th May:  The next test for the Nikkei is resistance at around 18,000. Nice breakout for the EWJ exchange traded fund. Currency is appreciating.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  none

Currency: double bottom points to 110.

1st May: The index is meandering  lower, but there is no sign of topping . Good support at the current level and 16,600 support in the first chart. I would expect a good rebound soon and a test of the strong long term resistance at 18,000

17th April: A weak week last week with the index falling to a possible short term support on the first chart. No strong resistance before 18,000, or slightly higher on the long term daily and weekly charts.

9th April: The index has broken key resistances in the first chart, but there are long term resistances at around 18,000

3rd April: Breakout from some strong resistances on the long term daily and weekly charts give hope that the index could be heading for 20,000. One strong resistance on the EWJ fund chart.

27th March: Strong resistance in the first chart gives cause for concern. However, a breakout form a triangle on the EWJ fund chart gives cause for hope that the index is about to set a new high. Failure of support in the first chart, at around 16,300 would dampen hopes.

17th March: The index moved in a narrow range last week. But the EWJ fund broke out of a short term triangle, suggesting that the index might be about to continue its bullish rally, after spending most of this year in consolidation. Another week of progress and a close above the recent high would confirm the trend.

13th March: The index is giving ambiguous signals. However, given the fact that the index has moved sideways since December, a resumption of the bull market would not surprise.

6th March: Danger of topping as the index and the EWJ chart both have bearish scenarios. However, until the tops break out, we should presume the continuation of the bull.

20th February: Failure of a couple of channel supports and some double top patterns give cause for concern that this market could be about to enter a period of consolidation.  On the other hand, the short term chart shows a rising trend that is not broken. A sharp rebound would be unsurprising.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  Reverse head and shoulders point to 17,000. As good as done.

Currency: none

13th February: The short term looks dangerous as a top appears to be forming. But the long term daily and weekly charts suggest that the index is heading for 20,000, without the need for a rest. This outlook would change if the channel supports were to break in the long term daily, weekly or ETF charts. For now they are safe and we should presume the bull.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  Reverse head and shoulders point to 17,000. As good as done.

Currency: none

6th February: A testing time for the market. The index is sitting on support in the second chart. And there is a new high for the weekly chart. The weekly chart shows the index testing resistance at around 17,200. The long term target of 17,000 is as good as done. There is no continuation pattern to suggest that the market will rally higher in the short to medium term. But there is an outstanding bullish target for the ETF, "EWJ". A close above 17,200 next Friday would give a good indication that the market is heading higher.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  Reverse head and shoulders point to 17,000. As good as done.

Currency: none

30th January: Short term resistance in the first chart as the index retest recent high. Long term resistance in the second chart. The weekly chart also shows a strong resistance. These resistances are likely to break, if strong volume has any predictive value.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  Reverse head and shoulders point to 17,000. As good as done.

Currency: none

23rd January: The index has turned on resistance shown in the weekly chart. Target on the daily chart is as good as done. We now have a bull market with very high turnover, but no target. Nonetheless, until there is a topping pattern, we should presume the trend is up.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  Reverse head and shoulders point to 17,000. As good as done.

Currency: none

9th January: Strong resistance on the weekly chart and on the ETF and other fund charts.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  Reverse head and shoulders point to 17,000. Breakout and volume are quite persuasive. First major resistance at around 15,000.

Currency: none

2005

24th December: The index has made another new high. But resistance on the weekly chart is approaching. Interesting bottom for Sony.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  Reverse head and shoulders point to 17,000. Breakout and volume are quite persuasive. First major resistance at around 15,000.

Currency: none

19th December: Possible short term top in the first chart, a sharp rebound for the yen and a nice turn on support for NTT.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  Reverse head and shoulders point to 17,000. Breakout and volume are quite persuasive. First major resistance at around 15,000.

Currency: none

12th December: A bit of volatility last week as the index made a plunge on Thursday. But the quick rebound on Friday clearly supports the very strong bull market that is now driving this market. Next big test is at around 16,000, as shown on the weekly chart.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  Reverse head and shoulders point to 17,000. Breakout and volume are quite persuasive. First major resistance at around 15,000.

Currency: none

5th December: The index has broken important resistance at 15,000. Next major resistance is at 17,000. The yen has met good support at 121. Good chance of a rebound.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  Reverse head and shoulders point to 17,000. Breakout and volume are quite persuasive. First major resistance at around 15,000.

Currency: none

28th November: The index has hit first major resistance on the weekly chart. We should now be vigilant for a turn, which could see the index stall for a few months, or a breakout, which would take the index to the next obstacle in the mid 16,000 level.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  Reverse head and shoulders point to 17,000. Breakout and volume are quite persuasive. First major resistance at around 15,000.

Currency: none

21st November:  The index is approaching a major resistance at 15,000. I expect that this obstacle will pass. But there is a chance of a short to medium term correction at the 15,000 level. Have to wait and see.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  Reverse head and shoulders point to 17,000. Breakout and volume are quite persuasive. First major resistance at around 15,000.

Currency: none

14th November: Another week of record volume and new highs. Resistance in the first chart. But on the weekly chart, resistance not until 15,000.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  Reverse head and shoulders point to 17,000. Breakout and volume are quite persuasive. First major resistance at around 15,000.

Currency: none

7th November:  Medium and long term look excellent. Short term could see a bit of resistance at 14,700.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  Reverse head and shoulders point to 17,000. Breakout and volume are quite persuasive. First major resistance at around 15,000.

Currency: none

31st October: The index could still go either way in the medium term. A close below 1,000 would be bearish. But until that happens, presume the upside.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom (weekly and daily ) both points to 1,300

Currency: none

17th October: The index is well supported. Failure of the support could see a fall back to 12,500. But that should not prevent the index reaching targets.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  Reverse head and shoulders point to 17,000. Breakout and volume are quite persuasive. First major resistance at around 15,000.

Currency: none

10th October: A bit of a pullback, but the index is otherwise looking fine.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  triple bottom and symmetrical triangle both points to 13,400 - done

Reverse head and shoulders point to 17,000. Breakout and volume are quite persuasive. First major resistance at around 15,000.

Currency: none

26th September: All looking very good. Next major resistance is at around 15,000. But I would be surprised if the index doesn't reach 20,000 in a year or so. See the green lines in the third chart.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  triple bottom and symmetrical triangle both points to 13,400

Reverse head and shoulders point to 17,000. Breakout and volume are quite persuasive. First major resistance at around 15,000.

Currency: none

19th September: The index is rising on increasing volume, and a gap, after breaking out of the long-awaited perfect long term reversal pattern. First major resistance is at 15,000.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  triple bottom and symmetrical triangle both points to 13,400

Reverse head and shoulders point to 17,000. Breakout and volume are quite persuasive. First major resistance at around 15,000.

Currency: none

12th September: A new high on record volume gives us the best case scenario for this market: a long term reverse head and shoulders with good proportions and excellent volume. This is now the star market for the region.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  triple bottom and symmetrical triangle both points to 13,400

Reverse head and shoulders point to 17,000. Breakout and volume are quite persuasive. First major resistance at around 15,000.

Currency: none

5th September: The index edged a little higher on good volume, confirming the breakout from our long term reversal patterns and target of around 17,000 in the medium term.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  triple bottom and symmetrical triangle both points to 13,400

Reverse head and shoulders point to 17,000. Breakout and volume are quite persuasive. First major resistance at around 15,000.

Currency: none

29th August: The index had broken out of the long term reversal pattern, with target of 17,000 highly likely. The only danger is currency. A fall below 113 (ie. greater than 113) would be dangerous, 115 would suggest a fall back to 121.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  triple bottom and symmetrical triangle both points to 13,400

Reverse head and shoulders point to 17,000. Breakout and volume are quite persuasive. First major resistance at around 15,000.

22nd August: The big long term pattern that we have been waiting on for months has broken out - well, almost. Well, technically it has broken out. But the margin of the breakout could be a bit better. Very encouraging. In anticipation of a convincing breakout, we are showing some Japanese ADRs and an ETF. Send us your stock picks if you have any. We'll look into them.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  triple bottom and symmetrical triangle both points to 13,400

8th August: The index appears about to plunge again. What, again? Well, there's a chance it will break out of its rally and plunge cycle, as shown in the first chart. There is a great long term pattern brewing that should soon break out. We've been waiting and waiting and waiting. We might have to keep on waiting.

1st August: The index is right on resistance at 12,000. A breakout could occur in a day, week, or month now.

25th July: Still waiting for a breakout from the resistance at 12,000, and then, on the long term chart, a breakout at 12,500. Until then, it's sleepy days.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom or reverse head and shoulders  points to 14,400 (daily) or 14,700 (weekly) - confirmed

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 97 - as good as cancelled

20th July: Still waiting for something significant. 12,000 would be a breakout in the first chart. But 12,500 is the significant level in the long term chart.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom or reverse head and shoulders  points to 14,400 (daily) or 14,700 (weekly) - confirmed

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 97 - as good as cancelled

27th June:  No significant change. We're still waiting for the big one at 12,500.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom or reverse head and shoulders  points to 14,400 (daily) or 14,700 (weekly) - confirmed

Currency: reverse head and shoulders p points to 97

20th June: Still waiting for the big breakout at 12,500, or thereabouts. Next major resistance at 11,800.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom or reverse head and shoulders  points to 14,400 (daily) or 14,700 (weekly) - confirmed

Currency: reverse head and shoulders p points to 97

13th June: A week of moving sideways last week. A surge of volume last Friday is too much an isolated phenomenon to be of concern.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom or reverse head and shoulders  points to 14,400 (daily) or 14,700 (weekly) - confirmed

Currency: reverse head and shoulders p points to 97

6th June: Two new charts  are shown below. Neither gives a clear picture. I'm afraid we'll just have to be patient and hope that, one fine unexpected morning, the long awaited rally for this market finally takes off. The stage is set. All we need is a close at around 12,500 and the game is on.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom or reverse head and shoulders  points to 14,400 (daily) or 14,700 (weekly) - confirmed

Currency: reverse head and shoulders p points to 97

21st May:  The support in black at around 10,700 in the first and second charts is the support to watch. Thereafter at around 10,000. I am still hopeful about this market due to the excellent long term scenario in the long term daily chart (last but one).

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom or reverse head and shoulders  points to 14,400 (daily) or 14,700 (weekly) - confirmed

Currency: reverse head and shoulders p points to 97

16th May:  Two bullish patterns cancelled. Nothing exciting with this market in the short term. We either need a close below 10,700 or a rally above 12,400, the latter of which, we have been awaiting for months.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: 1. double bottom points to 12,100 - cancelled
                         2. symmetrical triangle points to 13,100 - cancelled

Long term:  double bottom or reverse head and shoulders  points to 14,400 (daily) or 14,700 (weekly) - confirmed

Currency: reverse head and shoulders p points to 97

25th April: Good support at 10,400. The long term scenario still makes this market the most promising in Asia. Currency has found good long term support.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: 1. double bottom points to 12,100 - cancelled
                         2. symmetrical triangle points to 13,100 - cancelled

Long term:  double bottom or reverse head and shoulders  points to 14,400 (daily) or 14,700 (weekly) - confirmed

Currency: reverse head and shoulders p points to 97

18th April: Next support is at around 10,800.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: 1. double bottom points to 12,100
                         2. symmetrical triangle points to 13,100

Long term:  double bottom or reverse head and shoulders  points to 14,400 (daily) or 14,700 (weekly) - confirmed

Currency: reverse head and shoulders p points to 97

11th April: 12,400 - it all depends on a breakout from the pattern in the third chart below at 12,400. A breakout at this level could see Japan as the most promising market of the year. Currency has support at 111 to 113.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: 1. double bottom points to 12,100
                         2. symmetrical triangle points to 13,100

Long term:  double bottom or reverse head and shoulders  points to 14,400 (daily) or 14,700 (weekly) - confirmed

Currency: reverse head and shoulders p points to 97

4th April: The long term chart, fourth below, still looks persuasive. Important support at 11,500, or just a bit higher (see yellow support in first chart).

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: 1. double bottom points to 12,100
                         2. symmetrical triangle points to 13,100

Long term:  double bottom or reverse head and shoulders  points to 14,400 (daily) or 14,700 (weekly) - confirmed

Currency: reverse head and shoulders p points to 97

21st March: Still waiting for the big pattern in the third chart  to break at 12,400.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: 1. double bottom points to 12,100
                         2. symmetrical triangle points to 13,100

Long term:  double bottom or reverse head and shoulders  points to 14,400 (daily) or 14,700 (weekly) - confirmed

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 97

14th March: Excellent volume last week gives further hope that this market will soon boom. The index is on the verge of breakout from a very well formed reverse head and shoulders pattern. Breakout would be at 12,400 on the daily and 12,300 on the weekly chart.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: 1. double bottom points to 12,100
                         2. symmetrical triangle points to 13,100

Long term:  double bottom or reverse head and shoulders  points to 14,400 (daily) or 14,700 (weekly) - confirmed

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 97

8th March: Nice action over the past two weeks gives good cause to hope that this market will be one of the best performers this year. Breakout would need to be at around 12,500 or 12,600. See the weekly chart. It looks very encouraging.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: 1. double bottom points to 12,100
                         2. symmetrical triangle points to 13,100

Long term:  double bottom or reverse head and shoulders  points to 14,400 (daily) or 14,700 (weekly) - confirmed

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 97

21st February: Nothing much happened with the market. Volume fell off last week but is still good. Waiting for something to happen. 12,200 or thereabouts is still the critical resistance.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: 1. double bottom points to 12,100
                         2. symmetrical triangle points to 13,100

Long term:  double bottom or reverse head and shoulders  points to 14,400 (daily) or 14,700 (weekly) - confirmed

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 97

14th February: The index has rallied over the last couple of weeks on good volume, giving hope that the index will soon break out of the long term bottom with neckline around 12,200 or 12,300. Chances are good. Target would be 16,000.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: 1. double bottom points to 12,100
                         2. symmetrical triangle points to 13,100

Long term:  double bottom or reverse head and shoulders  points to 14,400 (daily) or 14,700 (weekly) - confirmed

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 97

31st January: A close at 12,300 to 12,500 would be the signal for a major rally. Still waiting for that to happen.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: 1. double bottom points to 12,100
                         2. symmetrical triangle points to 13,100

Long term:  double bottom or reverse head and shoulders  points to 14,400 (daily) or 14,700 (weekly) - confirmed

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 97

17th January: Still waiting for a breakout from the neckline at 12,400. This would be the strongest indicator of a long term bull market with at least a 35% upside.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: 1. double bottom points to 12,100
                         2. symmetrical triangle points to 13,100

Long term:  double bottom or reverse head and shoulders  points to 14,400 (daily) or 14,700 (weekly) - confirmed

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 97

10th January: The index is peforming well, as expected. With luck, we will see the index break the 12,000 level in the short term. Strong resistance will occur at around 12,200 to 12,400.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: 1. double bottom points to 12,100
                         2. symmetrical triangle points to 13,100

Long term:  double bottom or reverse head and shoulders  points to 14,400 (daily) or 14,700 (weekly) - confirmed

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 97


2004
20th December: Still waiting for something to pop.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom or reverse head and shoulders  points to 14,400 (daily) or 14,700 (weekly) - confirmed

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 97

13th December: The index is meandering and the currency has encountered resistance at the previous high of 102, or thereabouts.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom or reverse head and shoulders  points to 14,400 (daily) or 14,700 (weekly) - confirmed

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 97

6th December: The index is still treading water. But currency looks likely to make a dash for 97.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom or reverse head and shoulders  points to 14,400 (daily) or 14,700 (weekly) - confirmed

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 97

20th November: Currency is testing a strong resistance, the breakout from which could see a rally to 97.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom or reverse head and shoulders  points to 14,400 (daily) or 14,700 (weekly) - confirmed

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 97

15th November: The index is still hesitating. But support in the first chart is still holding. The better indicator would be a breakout from the pattern in the second chart at around 12,500 and the comparable pattern in the weekly chart at around 12,300.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom or reverse head and shoulders  points to 14,400 (daily) or 14,700 (weekly) - confirmed

25th October: Good support in the medium term chart (first one on this page). Otherwise, we shall have to wait and see whether the index holds above neckline support in the third chart. A close at 10,600 would raise the spectre of a big top, as shown in the second chart, giving a short term target of 10,100.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom or reverse head and shoulders  points to 14,400 (daily) or 14,700 (weekly) - confirmed

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 97

18th October: Nothing very persuasive in the market. Support at 10,400 on the long term daily chart is still the most important indicator.

Current prediction

Short term: double bottom points to 12,100 - not yet confirmed

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom or reverse head and shoulders  points to 14,400 (daily) or 14,700 (weekly) - confirmed

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 97

11th October: Some encouraging signs: a nice little bottom in the short term chart and a breakout from a little wedge on the weekly chart. Both suggest a positive outlook for the week.

Current prediction

Short term: double bottom points to 12,100 - not yet confirmed

4th October: Nothing exciting to report. The double support in the first chart is still the most important indicator. With luck, the support will precipitate a strong rebound.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom or reverse head and shoulders  points to 14,400 (daily) or 14,700 (weekly) - confirmed

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 97

20th September: Nothing very exciting in the last two weeks. The second chart is still the most important indicator for the index. The most that can be said is that volume is good, giving hope to scenario in the first chart.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom or reverse head and shoulders  points to 14,400 (daily) or 14,700 (weekly) - confirmed

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 97

4th September: Short term bottom cancelled. But the long term picture is more important.

Current prediction

Short term: 1. double bottom points to11,600 - cancelled
                    2. double top points to 10,850

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom or reverse head and shoulders  points to 14,400 (daily) or 14,700 (weekly) - confirmed

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 97

30th August: There is a fair chance that the index could rally soon, after a nice turn on double support. A weekly close at 12,300 would be a good indicator, as well as a surge in volume. 10,800 is the critical support on the weekly chart.

Current prediction

Short term: double bottom points to11,600

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom or reverse head and shoulders  points to 14,400 (daily) or 14,700 (weekly) - confirmed

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 97

23rd August: The market is treading water, as it usually does this time of year. Nothing much to report.

Current prediction

Short term: short term head and shoulders top points to  10,579 (log), 10,535 (arithmetic) - done

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom or reverse head and shoulders  points to 14,400 (daily) or 14,700 (weekly) - confirmed

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 95

9th August: The index is testing crucial support at the current level on the daily chart. Support on the weekly chart is at around 10,700, or slightly higher. If these supports fail, we could see several months of bearishness, while a larger long term reversal pattern forms.

Current prediction

Short term: short term head and shoulders top points to  10,579 (log), 10,535 (arithmetic) - re-instated

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom or reverse head and shoulders  points to 14,400 (daily) or 14,700 (weekly) - confirmed

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 95

2nd August: The bearish top pointing to 10,600 is cancelled. But another fall this week could easily reinstate the top and prediction. The long term support, forming the neckline to the long term reversal pattern, in the second chart, is of greater significance. If it fails, the prediction of 14,400 would be cancelled and the index would be in danger of falling to the 9,000 level over the next several months.

Current prediction

Short term: short term head and shoulders top points to  10,579 (log), 10,535 (arithmetic) - cancelled

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom or reverse head and shoulders  points to 14,400 (daily) or 14,700 (weekly) - confirmed

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 95

26th July: A short term pattern points to 10,500 with possible interruption at 10,800. The latter figure would coincide with the long term double bottom neckline. With luck, the index will not fall below 10,800.

Current prediction

Short term: short term head and shoulders top points to  10,579 (log), 10,535 (arithmetic) - not yet confirmed

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom or reverse head and shoulders  points to 14,400 (daily) or 14,700 (weekly) - confirmed

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 95

28th June: No change. Last week's comments hold.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom or reverse head and shoulders  points to 14,400 (daily) or 14,700 (weekly) - confirmed

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 95

10th May: Now testing neckline support for the big long term double bottom. If the neckline fails, we should expect a right shoulder to form, symmetrical to that around the end of 2001 and a more horizontal neckline.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  reverse head and shoulders (daily & weekly) points to 15,100 - testing neckline. A fall to 10,400 would cancel the target.

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 95

3rd May: Danger of a top in the short term. But the long term still looks good.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  reverse head and shoulders (daily & weekly) points to 15,100 - confirmed

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 95

26th April: Nothing eventful to report. The long term picture looks good. Volume is building nicely.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  reverse head and shoulders (daily & weekly) points to 15,100 - confirmed

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 95

19th April: The strong volume last week contributes to the long term bullish picture for the index.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  reverse head and shoulders (daily & weekly) points to 15,100 - confirmed

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 95

19th April: The strong volume last week contributes to the long term bullish picture for the index.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  reverse head and shoulders (daily & weekly) points to 15,100 - confirmed

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 95

12th April: No great change for the index. It still looks very strong. Volume is persuasive. The weekly chart also looks encouraging.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  reverse head and shoulders (daily & weekly) points to 15,100-confirmed

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 95

5th April: The index has confirmed target of around 15,000. Currency has almost confirmed target of around 95.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  reverse head and shoulders (daily & weekly) points to 15,100-confirmed

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 95

15th March: The index could be pulling back to the neckline of its long term reversal pattern. Provided the pullback is followed by a rebound, there is no cause to doubt the target of 15,200. The yellow support in the first chart is the critical indicator.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  reverse head and shoulders (daily & weekly) points to 15,200

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 97

8th March: The breakout from the long term bottom was sustained last week. The index looks decidedly bullish.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  reverse head and shoulders (daily & weekly) points to 15,200

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 97

1st March: The index today broke out of a long term reversal pattern, giving a tentative target of 14,800.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  reverse head and shoulders with a tentative target of 14,800.

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 97

23rd February: The index is looking much the same as it did last week. But the fund chart has repaired a broken support, suggesting short term strength. (That could change when the recent 2% drop in the yen is factored into the price.)

16th February: Good long term scenario waiting to break. A close at 11,200 would be a breakout.

9th February: The index hesitated at the neckline of a nice reversal pattern. But it is well supported. A close at 11,200 on good volume would inspire hope for a rally to 13,200 and then 14,800.

26th January: A very restrained week last week. Previous week's comments hold: still waiting for breakout from a long term bottom that would likely signal the end of 13 or more years of bear.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  none

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 97

19th January: Still waiting for breakout from the pattern in the first chart.

12th January: The index is looking very bullish. The medium term chart shows an impressive reversal pattern about to break. If it does, and volume surges, expect 14,800 quite soon.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  none

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 97 


2003

29th December: A good scenario is developing. A close at 11,200 would be the trigger.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double top points to 9,200-cancelled

Long term:  none

1st December: A little rally last week. But only a close above 10,200 would cancel the target of 9,200.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double top points to 9,200

24th November: Some short to medium danger of further falls. The weekly chart points to 9,600. Support on the daily chart is at around 8,900.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double top points to 9,200

17th November: A close at 10,000 or below would signal a probable fall back to 9,200 with possible interruption at 9,800.

10th November: The index has been moving in a tight range for many weeks now. Time for some action either a close at 10,200, which would signal a fall to 9,200; or a breakout above 11,200, which would signal a rally to the resistance at 12,200.

3rd November: The index is equivocal. But the fund shows gives a clearly bullish signal.

27th October: Two negative signals: a possible double top in the short term and a failure of channel support in the second chart. The fund chart, on the other hand, shows last weeks falls as a pullback to the neckline of a double bottom. No doubt, a few more days will make the picture clearer.

20th October: A major long term resistance at around 670 is approaching (second chart). If that passes, we should expect at least the next resistance at around 720, and then, target of the long term bottom.

13th October: The market has been a bit slow in recent weeks. Next test is at 12,000. A double bottom could break out at that level.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term: 1.) triple top (daily)  points to 8,200 (log - done 10/10/02), 4,700 (arithmetic - low probability)
                    2.) triple top (weekly) points to 7,790 (log-done 25th April 03), 4,040 (arithmetic - low probability)

Currency: valid target of 96

6th October: No great change over the last two weeks, except for the fact that the volume for the market remains strong and the rising channel (see first chart) that defines the current bull trend is well defined. 12,000 is a good hope.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term: 1.) triple top (daily)  points to 8,200 (log - done 10/10/02), 4,700 (arithmetic - low probability)
                    2.) triple top (weekly) points to 7,790 (log-done 25th April 03), 4,040 (arithmetic - low probability)

Currency: valid target of 96

22nd September: No predictions for the index. We are waiting for a possible double bottom to break at around 12,000. Currency has broken a pattern pointing to 96.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term: 1.) triple top (daily)  points to 8,200 (log - done 10/10/02), 4,700 (arithmetic - low probability)
                    2.) triple top (weekly) points to 7,790 (log-done 25th April 03), 4,040 (arithmetic - low probability)

Currency: valid target of 96

15th September: The index has reached our medium term target. The next objective would be 11,700, at which point, a larger pattern could form.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  double bottom points to 11,000 - done

Long term: 1.) triple top (daily)  points to 8,200 (log - done 10/10/02), 4,700 (arithmetic - low probability)
                    2.) triple top (weekly) points to 7,790 (log-done 25th April 03), 4,040 (arithmetic - low probability)

Currency: none

8th September: The index broke a strong resistance last week. Next resistance is at around 10,800 and then 11,700 - 11,800.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  double bottom points to 11,000 - good chance

Long term: 1.) triple top (daily)  points to 8,200 (log - done 10/10/02), 4,700 (arithmetic - low probability)
                    2.) triple top (weekly) points to 7,790 (log-done 25th April 03), 4,040 (arithmetic - low probability)

Currency: none

1st September: Good chance of target at 11,000. Even better chance if the index breaks resistance at 10,400.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  double bottom points to 11,000 - good chance

Long term: 1.) triple top (daily)  points to 8,200 (log - done 10/10/02), 4,700 (arithmetic - low probability)
                    2.) triple top (weekly) points to 7,790 (log-done 25th April 03), 4,040 (arithmetic - low probability)

18th August: The index has turned on the neckline of the medium term double bottom, confirming target of 11,000. Some strong resistances to contend with at the current level and at around 10,600.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  double bottom points to 11,000

Long term: 1.) triple top (daily)  points to 8,200 (log - done 10/10/02), 4,700 (arithmetic - not reliable)
                    2.) triple top (weekly) points to 7,790 (log-done 25th April 03), 4,040 (arithmetic - not reliable)

Currency: none

11th August: Both the index and the fund chart are getting very close to the point of cancelling our bullish targets.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  double bottom points to 11,000

Long term: 1.) triple top (daily)  points to 8,200 (log - done 10/10/02), 4,700 (arithmetic - not reliable)
                    2.) triple top (weekly) points to 7,790 (log-done 25th April 03), 4,040 (arithmetic - not reliable)

4th August: No substantial change. We have a double bottom in the first chart. The bottom has good volume, but a small first bottom. A rally above the previous recent high at around 10,000 would be encouraging. A fall below 9,200 would give reason to cancel the target of 11,000.

28th July: Good chance of seeing 11,000 provided the index doesn't fall below 9,200.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  double bottom points to 11,000

Long term: 1.) triple top (daily)  points to 8,200(log - done 10/10/02), 4,700 (arithmetic - not reliable)
                    2.) triple top (weekly) points to 7,790 (log-done 25th April 03), 4,040 (arithmetic - not reliable)

Currency: none

21st July: Volume is still good and chances of 11,000 are still high, provided the index stays above 9,200.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  double bottom points to 11,000

Long term: 1.) triple top (daily)  points to 8,200 (log - done 10/10/02), 4,700 (arithmetic - not reliable)
                    2.) triple top (weekly) points to 7,790 (log-done 25th April 03), 4,040 (arithmetic - not reliable)

Currency: none

5th July: Volume surges in the last few weeks suggest that that the index has bottomed. Our first target is 11,000, or thereabouts. But an overshoot to 11,900, the next medium term resistance would not surprise.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  double bottom points to 11,000

Long term: 1.) triple top (daily)  points to 8,200 (log - done 10/10/02), 4,700 (arithmetic - not reliable)
                    2.) triple top (weekly) points to 7,790 (log-done 25th April 03), 4,040 (arithmetic - not reliable)

Currency: none

30th June: Strong volume and good scenarios give hope that the index has turned the corner.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  double bottom points to 10,100 - confirmed if closes above 9,400

Long term: 1.) triple top (daily)  points to 8,200 (log - done 10/10/02), 4,700 (arithmetic - not reliable)
                    2.) triple top (weekly) points to 7,790 (log-done 25th April 03), 4,040 (arithmetic - not reliable)

Currency: none

16th June: Huge volume suggests that the index is making a bottom. No real pattern to speak of yet. But there is a possible neckline just above 9,200. Let's see what happens then.

Current prediction

Short term: reverse head and shoulders points at 9,050 - good as done

Medium term:  none

Long term: 1.) triple top (daily)  points to 8,200 (log - done 10/10/02), 4,700 (arithmetic - not reliable)
                    2.) triple top (weekly) points to 7,790 (log-done 25th April 03), 4,040 (arithmetic - not reliable)

Currency: none

9th June: Consistent rising volume and a nice short to medium term reversal pattern suggest that the index has reversed.

Current prediction

Short term: reverse head and shoulders points at 9,050

Medium term:  none

Long term: 1.) triple top (daily)  points to 8,200 (log - done 10/10/02), 4,700 (arithmetic - not reliable)
                    2.) triple top (weekly) points to 7,790 (log-done 25th April 03), 4,040 (arithmetic - not reliable)

Currency: none

2nd June: Good volume and a nice reversal pattern will be confirmed if the index closes around 8,600. Long term resistance has broken and the medium term top are cancelled, thereby adding to hopes that the index is reversing its bearish trend.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  head and shoulders top pointing to 7,300 (log), 7,175 (arithmetic) - cancelled

Long term: 1.) triple top (daily)  points to 8,200 (log - done 10/10/02), 4,700 (arithmetic - not reliable)
                    2.) triple top (weekly) points to 7,790 (log-done 25th April 03), 4,040 (arithmetic - not reliable)

Currency: none

26th May: Steadily increasing volume since April and a nice symmetrical double bottom give hope that the market is reversing.

19th May: Good recent volume gives hope for a bottom at the current level. The index is foundering at resistance of 8,250. Let's see if it breaks.

12th May: A little scenario with good volume gives cause for hope that the index is bottoming. A fund chart has already made a bottom and broken out of a wedge-like pattern.

28th April: Our next target of 7,300 seems like the most likely outlook for the market.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  head and shoulders top pointing to 7,300 (log), 7,175 (arithmetic)

Long term: 1.) triple top (daily)  points to 8,200 (log - done 10/10/02), 4,700 (arithmetic - not reliable)
                    2.) triple top (weekly) points to 7,790 (log-done 25th April 03), 4,040 (arithmetic - not reliable)

18th April: No sign of a bottom yet. In the absence of a reversal pattern, we should presume that the index will soon reach target of 7,300.

29th March: Nothing decisive: a top points to 7,300. But there is long term support at the current level which could easily turn into a bottom.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  head and shoulders top pointing to 7,300 (log), 7,175 (arithmetic)

Long term: 1.) triple top (daily)  points to 8,200 (log - done 10/10/02), 4,700 (arithmetic - not reliable)
                    2.) triple top (weekly) points to 7,790 (log), 4,040 (arithmetic - not reliable)

Currency: none

24th March: No substantial change despite the strong rally last week, which merely pulled the index back to the neckline of the top. However, the top is dubious as it is not a reversal pattern coming at the top of a rally. Rather, it is a continuation pattern, marking a further fall of an index that has already fallen far. Continuation patterns are less reliable than tops.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  head and shoulders top pointing to 7,300 (log), 7,175 (arithmetic)

Long term: 1.) triple top (daily)  points to 8,200 (log - done 10/10/02), 4,700 (arithmetic - not reliable)
                    2.) triple top (weekly) points to 7,790 (log), 4,040 (arithmetic - not reliable)

Currency: none

17th March: A week of moving sideways. Check out the bottoming scenario in the second chart. This offers the best hope for a reversal. It would require at least four or five months.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  head and shoulders top pointing to 7,300 (log), 7,175 (arithmetic)

Long term: 1.) triple top (daily)  points to 8,200 (log - done 10/10/02), 4,700 (arithmetic - not reliable)
                    2.) triple top (weekly) points to 7,790 (log), 4,040 (arithmetic - not reliable)

Currency: none

10th March: Medium term top points to 7,200. There is a long term support near the current level, and one at the current level. These should break before we can be confident about the top. (Given that the top is a continuation pattern, and not a real topping pattern that succeeds a rally.) If the long term supports break, the downside could be 4,000. Too early to panic about that.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  head and shoulders top pointing to 7,300 (log), 7,175 (arithmetic)

Long term: 1.) triple top (daily)  points to 8,200 (log - done 10/10/02), 4,700 (arithmetic - not reliable)
                    2.) triple top (weekly) points to 7,790 (log), 4,040 (arithmetic - not reliable)

Currency: none

3rd March: The index is either bottoming or consolidating for another fall. No clear sign at the moment. We shall have to be patient.

24th February: Strong recent volume gives hope for a bottom at the current level. But only a hope at this stage.

10th February: No change: we could either be looking at a bottom or a pattern indicating a further fall to around 7,300. Volume has been rising slightly over the past week or two, giving cause for hope that the index is bottoming. The important level of support is at around 8,300.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: 1.) triple top (daily)  points to 8,200 (log - done 10/10/02), 4,700 (arithmetic - not reliable)
                    2.) triple top (weekly) points to 7,790 (log), 4,040 (arithmetic - not reliable)

Currency: none

3rd February: The index could either be making a small bottom, in which case we should see a rally and increased turnover; or, it could be making a continuation pattern, suggesting a fall to 7,300. A close at 8,250 would suggest the latter scenario.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: 1.) triple top (daily)  points to 8,200 (log - done 10/10/02), 4,700 (arithmetic - not reliable)
                    2.) triple top (weekly) points to 7,790 (log), 4,040 (arithmetic - not reliable)

Currency: none

27th January: The index has a good chance of bottoming and currency strengthening. A close at 9,500 on strong volume, would be the first signal.

13th January: The index is sitting on various supports. No indication of a bottom.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: 1.) triple top (daily)  points to 8,200 (log - done 10/10/02), 4,700 (arithmetic)
                    2.) triple top (weekly) points to 7,790 (log), 4,040 (arithmetic)

Currency: none 


2002

23rd December: The index is on good support. But the only basis for a reversal at the current level is hope.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: 1.) triple top (daily)  points to 8,200 (log - done 10/10/02), 4,700 (arithmetic)
                    2.) triple top (weekly) points to 7,790 (log), 4,040 (arithmetic)

Currency: none

16th December: The index is now close to long term support and has a chance of forming a bottom. That could take a week or two.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: 1.) triple top (daily)  points to 8,200 (log - done 10/10/02), 4,700 (arithmetic)
                    2.) triple top (weekly) points to 7,790 (log), 4,040 (arithmetic)

Currency: none

9th December: The double bottom with target of 10,100 has failed. We are now left with nothing but a bear trend.

Current prediction

Short term: double bottom points to 10,100 - cancelled

Medium term: none

Long term: 1.) triple top (daily)  points to 8,200 (log - done 10/10/02), 4,700 (arithmetic)
                    2.) triple top (weekly) points to 7,790 (log), 4,040 (arithmetic)

Currency: none

2nd December: There is a chance that the index could be bottoming as a nice little double bottom, with persuasive volume, has broken out. Good chance of 10,100.

Current prediction

Short term: double bottom points to 10,100

Medium term: none

Long term: 1.) triple top (daily)  points to 8,200 (log - done 10/10/02), 4,700 (arithmetic)
                    2.) triple top (weekly) points to 7,790 (log), 4,040 (arithmetic)

Currency: none

18th November: A short term top points to a new low below 8,000. There is support at that level and a scenario for a bottom. But it's too soon to tell.

Current prediction

Short term: double top points to 7,900

Medium term: none

Long term: 1.) triple top (daily)  points to 8,200 (log - done 10/10/02), 4,700 (arithmetic)
                   2.) triple top (weekly) points to 7,790 (log), 4,040 (arithmetic)

Currency: double top points to 126-127-cancelled

11th November: There's a little double bottom scenario on the first chart. But it's too early to make much of it.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: 1.) triple top (daily)  points to 8,200 (log - done 10/10/02), 4,700 (arithmetic)
                    2.) triple top (weekly) points to 7,790 (log), 4,040 (arithmetic)

Currency:  double top points to 126-127

2nd November: The index is holding on some supports. But there is no sign of a bottom at the current level.

28th October: The weekly target of 7,790 is still likely to happen.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: 1.) triple top (daily)  points to 8,200 (log - done 10/10/02), 4,700 (arithmetic)
                    2.) triple top (weekly) points to 7,790 (log), 4,040 (arithmetic)

Currency:  double top points to 126-127

19th October: A rally last week on moderate volume does not give cause for hope.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: 1.) triple top (daily)  points to 8,200 (log - done 10/10/02), 4,700 (arithmetic)
                   2.) triple top (weekly) points to 7,790 (log), 4,040 (arithmetic)

Currency:  double top points to 126-127

12th October: The index is on a support in the medium term chart. But there is no sign of a bottom. Thus we should presume that the trend is still down.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: 1.) triple top (daily)  points to 8,200 (log - done 10/10/02), 4,700 (arithmetic)
                    2.) triple top (weekly) points to 7,790 (log), 4,040 (arithmetic)

Currency:  double top points to 126-127

7th October: Good support still makes a bottom at the current level credible. Downside, however, is still around 5,000.

30th September:  Supports at the current level are good. But the only suggestion of a reversal is a breakout from a wedge on the weekly chart. I would prefer to see more evidence of a bottom before getting excited about a reversal of the bearish trend.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency:  double top points to 126-127

23rd September: The weekly chart offers hope in the form of a breakout from a wedge. But volume on the breakout is weak and we are just as likely to see the index retest the 9,000 level.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency:  double top points to 126-127

16th September: The index is making possible bottoming signs. But they are too short term and tentative to draw medium term conclusions.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency:  triangle points to 126, but not conclusively

9th September:  An important long term weekly has broken, giving rise to the scenario of a fall to 5,000. There is support at the current level on one of the daily charts. But we should wait for a bottom before discounting 5,000.

2nd September:  Nothing much going on, and nothing much likely to happen in this market for the rest of the year.

2nd September: The index is retesting a long term ascending support. If it fails, the next support would be at around 3,800.

19th August: A close at 10,100 on strong volume would be bullish. But I would not expect a rally to be sustained, according to our bottoming scenario, which would require the next few months for the index to bottom.

12th August: The index is retesting the previous low at around 9,600. The best case scenario for the index would be a double bottom, requiring the index to move in narrow range until the end of the year. The wedge scenario, suggesting an immediate rebound to the 12,000 level, is less likely, due to the fact that double bottoms usually have elongated second bottoms.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double top points to 9,850 - done

Long term: none

Currency:  none

22nd July: We are now looking at a long term double bottom scenario with the index retesting previous lows and a recovery, perhaps, next year.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double top points to 9,850

15th  July: The index looks weak in the short term, currency is stronger than many had expected. With luck, the index will not fall much below 9,900 and will bottom at around that level.

Current prediction

Short term: rising wedge pointing to 10,050

Medium term: double top points to 9,850

Long term: none

Currency:  none

8th  July: A bit of short term resistance at the current level. But nothing otherwise to go on.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double top points to 9,850

Long term: none

Currency:  none

1st July: Nothing exciting: merely a turn on a possible medium term support. But more time is needed to assess the quality of the support. A fall to 9,500 is still possible.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double top points to 9,850

Long term: none

Currency:  none

24th June: The best hope now is a double bottom, as the index heads back to the mid-9,000 range. On this scenario, the index is unlikely to rally much before the end of the year.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double bottom points to 12,900 - cancelled

Long term: none

Currency:  medium term double bottom pointing to 120.75

10th June: Our target of 12,900 is now questionable, due to a failure of support last week and also, due to the meandering of the index over the past couple of weeks. The index appears to have bottomed, but there is not as much oomph in it as I had anticipated. 10,800 should hold the index. Currency is approaching strong resistance at the current level and up to 122.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double bottom points to 12,900 - now questionable

Long term: none

Currency:  medium term double bottom pointing to 120.75

3rd June:  The outlook is still bullish, despite a week of falls. 12,100 is the next point of resistance. If the index passes this point on good volume, chances of 12,900 will be greater.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double bottom points to 12,900

Long term: none

Currency: 1. head and shoulders top pointing to 150 - cancelled
                  2. medium term double bottom pointing to 120.75

27th May: The index rallied above a key resistance, confirming the target of 12,900. On the weekly chart, there is no resistance before 14,000. Increasing volume last week will give the index a chance of reaching the resistance at 14,000. Currency is now approaching a key test at 124.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double bottom points to 12,900

Long term: none

Currency: 1. head and shoulders top pointing to 150 - questionable
                  2. medium term double botton pointing to 120.75

13th May: Another week of nothing exciting.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double bottom points to 12,900

Long term: none

Currency: head and shoulders top pointing to 150.

6th May: No significant movement. Target of 12,900 is less likely as time passes. But let us be a little more patient.

28th April: The double bottom pointing to 12,900 is still valid. But there is resistance holding the index back. I would like to see something dramatic in the next week or two. Delay in rallying after breakout often reduces the probability of reaching target.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double bottom points to 12,900

Long term: none

Currency: head and shoulders top pointing to 150.

21st April: The index is not moving towards the target of our double bottom, leading to doubts that the bottom will work. We need a close at 11,950, or better, in order to be confident that the index has bottomed. Otherwise, we could be in for disappointment.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double bottom points to 12,900

Long term: none

Currency: head and shoulders top pointing to 150.

8th April: The index has broken out of a wedge that indicates a probable return to the recent high of just under 12,000. If the resistance at that level breaks on good volume, we should expect 12,900. A fall below 10,750 would cancel the bottom. The weekly chart is encouraging. Currency could be bottoming, but that could take a month or two or three.

31st March: Waiting for confirmation of the double bottom that points to 12,900. A rally to 12,400 on good volume would be sufficient confirmation. Currency is also retesting the long term support at around 133.

9th March: The index has made an impressive bottom. Volume is persuasively strong. In the context of the turn on long term supports, it is now likely that the Nikkei is in bull mode, at least for the medium term. Currency also has made a short term bottom. Let's see if these develop into bigger patterns.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double bottom points to 12,900

Long term:  1. triple top (daily chart) pointing to 8,330 (log) and  4,825 (arithmetic) - cancelled
                     2. triple top (weekly chart) pointing  to 7,400 (log) and 3,360 (arithmetic)-cancelled

Currency: head and shoulders top pointing to 150.

4th March: The Nikkei has made a medium term reversal. Target of 12,700 is valid provided the index stays above the neckline of the pattern at around 11,000. The reversal could mean that Japan is now in a bull trend, at least until 12,700 and possibly longer. But let's wait another week and see whether we get confirmation of the neckline.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double bottom points to 12,700

Long term:  1. triple top (daily chart) pointing to 8,330 (log) and  4,825 (arithmetic)
                     2. triple top (weekly chart) pointing  to 7,400 (log) and 3,360 (arithmetic)

Currency: head and shoulders top pointing to 150.

25th February: A double bottom could be forming. But volume is too weak to inspire confidence.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double top points to 8,900- cancelled

Long term:  1. triple top (daily chart) pointing to 8,330 (log) and  4,825 (arithmetic)
                     2. triple top (weekly chart) pointing  to 7,400 (log) and 3,360 (arithmetic)

Currency: head and shoulders top pointing to 150.

18th February: The index is sitting on a long term support. The top pointing to 9,000 is still valid. But it could be cancelled if the index rallies another percent or two. That would not be much cause for cheer as there is still no sign of a bottom. Only a rebound above the previous recent high of around 11,200, on strong volume, would give a double bottom. At present, there is no increase of volume that would suggest that a double bottom is forming. Perhaps this week.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double top points to 8,900- still valid

Long term:  1. triple top (daily chart) pointing to 8,330 (log) and  4,825 (arithmetic)
                     2. triple top (weekly chart) pointing  to 7,400 (log) and 3,360 (arithmetic)

Currency: head and shoulders top pointing to 150.

11th February: Both currency and index are on long term supports. This gives a chance for a bottom at the current level. If the supports break, we can expect lower targets of 150 and 8,900, or thereabouts, respectively.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double top points to 8,900

Long term:  1. triple top (daily chart) pointing to 8,330 (log) and  4,825 (arithmetic)
                     2. triple top (weekly chart) pointing  to 7,400 (log) and 3,360 (arithmetic)

Currency: head and shoulders top pointing to 150.

2nd February: The index has a valid target of 9,000. There is support at around 9,500 that might intervene.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  1. triple top (daily chart) pointing to 8,330 (log) and  4,825 (arithmetic)
                     2. triple top (weekly chart) pointing  to 7,400 (log) and 3,360 (arithmetic)

Currency: head and shoulders top pointing to 150.

28th January: A close at 10,000 or below will give a valid target of 9,000. But long term support at 9,500 (or slightly below) could intervene. Currency is testing long term support. If it fails, 150 is highly likely.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  1. triple top (daily chart) pointing to 8,330 (log) and  4,825 (arithmetic)
                     2. triple top (weekly chart) pointing  to 7,400 (log) and 3,360 (arithmetic)

Currency: head and shoulders top pointing to 150.

6th January:  We are still waiting for long term resistances to break before considering any hope for this market. The yen is falling towards long term support at 134.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  1. triple top (daily chart) pointing to 8,330 (log) and  4,825 (arithmetic)
                     2. triple top (weekly chart) pointing  to 7,400 (log) and 3,360 (arithmetic)

Currency: head and shoulders top pointing to 150.

2001

24th December: Good recent volume is encouraging. But we need to see a close at around 11,500 or better on the long term daily chart in order to be have a hope of a bottom at the current level. The Yen has a high probability of falling to 134 in the next few weeks. 150 is a valid target for the currency.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  1. triple top (daily chart) pointing to 8,330 (log) and  4,825 (arithmetic)
                     2. triple top (weekly chart) pointing  to 7,400 (log) and 3,360 (arithmetic)

Currency: head and shoulders top pointing to 150.

10th December: A possible reversal is shown in the first chart. Rising volume gives some hope. The long bearish term targets are still valid. But I would not be betting on them at the moment. The yen is a greater concern. The long term pattern pointing to 150 is gaining greater symmetry. A fall below 126 would set off a prediction of 150.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  1. triple top (daily chart) pointing to 8,330 (log) and  4,825 (arithmetic)
                     2. triple top (weekly chart) pointing  to 7,400 (log) and 3,360 (arithmetic)

Currency: none

19th November: The top pointing to 9,600 is cancelled. A dubious reverse head and shoulders points up. But I would prefer to wait for something more persuasive. At present, the most persuasive indicator is the long term support on the ten year chart.

Current prediction

Short term: head and shoulders top points to 9,600- cancelled

12th November: A short term pattern points back to the previous low, or slightly higher. If the "slightly higher" occurs, there is a good chance that the index will bottom. There are some good long term supports that could facilitate a bottom. But until that happens we must wait. The short term is clearly bearish.

Current prediction

Short term: head and shoulders top points to 9,600

Medium term: none

Long term:  1. triple top (daily chart) pointing to 8,330 (log) and  4,825 (arithmetic)
                     2. triple top (weekly chart) pointing  to 7,400 (log) and 3,360 (arithmetic)

Currency: none

22nd October: No clear direction this week. The long term charts are still the dominating influence.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  1. triple top (daily chart) pointing to 8,330 (log) and  4,825 (arithmetic)
                     2. triple top (weekly chart) pointing  to 7,400 (log) and 3,360 (arithmetic)

Currency: none

15th October: Some possible long term supports have turned the index on the daily and weekly charts. But nothing to indicate a bottom yet.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  1. triple top (daily chart) pointing to 8,330 (log) and  4,825 (arithmetic)
                     2. triple top (weekly chart) pointing  to 7,400 (log) and 3,360 (arithmetic)

Currency: none

8th October: The index has turned on a nice long term support. But it's not a strong support. The fund chart has made a little bottom. But it is only a bottom of short term significance. It doesn't suggest that the market has bottomed.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  1. triple top (daily chart) pointing to 8,330 (log) and  4,825 (arithmetic)
                     2. triple top (weekly chart) pointing  to 7,400 (log) and 3,360 (arithmetic)

Currency: none

1st October: The index has hit good long term supports on the daily and weekly charts. But there is no bottoming pattern yet. It would likely be months before we could venture to suggest a bottom. And there is still the chance of a fall below the current supports to the region of 8,330 or even the 7,000 region.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  1. triple top (daily chart) pointing to 8,330 (log) and  4,825 (arithmetic)
                     2. triple top (weekly chart) pointing  to 7,400 (log) and 3,360 (arithmetic)

Currency: head and shoulders top points to 137-cancelled.

17th September: The previous low of July 1984, at 9,700, has been passed. The Nikkei is thus in free-fall. There are no good supports to be found, only highly speculative ones. I have a few predictions on the long term daily and weekly charts. But they are not reliable, due to the changing composition of the index over the years. However, in the absence of anything else to go on, a target on the daily chart of 8,330, albeit dubious, is the next point to set ones sights on.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  1. triple top (daily chart) pointing to 8,330 (log) and  4,825 (arithmetic)
                    2. triple top (weekly chart) pointing  to 7,400 (log) and 3,360 (arithmetic)

Currency: head and shoulders top points to 137, cancelled if the yen rallies to 118. Cascading pattern points to 150 if there is a close at 128.

10th September: A rebound at around 10,000 has a chance. But the prospect of the index falling to 7,400 is worth considering.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  1. head and shoulders top points to 11,800 (log - done) and 10,500 (arithmetic-done) on the daily chart.
           &n