History of KLSE Composite Index
2009

8th June: The index is now testing possible resistance in the first chart, which will operate up to around 1,150.

1st June: The index has made a tiny bottom and passed the target for that bottom. There is now resistance at 1,150.

Current target

Short term: 1. double bottom (daily) points to 1,030 - done
                    2. double bottom (weekly) points to 1,000 - done

11th May: A nice little bottom on good support gives hope that the index has bottomed. Volume gives a good chance.

2nd May: A nice little bottom on good support gives hope that the index has bottomed. Volume gives a good chance.

20th April: A nice little bottom on good support gives hope that the index has bottomed. Let's see what comes of it.

Current target

Short term: 1.double bottom (daily) points to 1,030
                    2.double bottom (weekly) points to 1,000

13th April: A nice little bottom on good support gives hope that the index has bottomed. Let's see what comes of it.

Current target

Short term: Double bottom points to 1,030

Long term: none

2nd March: A small ascending triangle in the first chart gives upside hope. Good support in the second chart. But resistance is strong in the first chart. 950 would need to break on strong volume before we could get bullish.

23rd February: A small ascending triangle in the first chart gives upside hope. Good support in the second chart. But resistance is strong in the first chart. 950 would need to break on strong volume before we could get bullish.

2nd February: The bottom scenario in the first chart is too small to reverse the long term trend and volume is too low to indicate a reversal. However there is good support, as shown in the second chart. The index could easily bottom at this level.



2008
22nd December:  Good support at the current level. Lets see where it takes us. A bottom would take at least a few more months to form.

23rd November:  Targets done. Now let's wait for a botom.

3rd November:  Targets done. Now let's wait for a botom.

Current target

Medium term: head and shoulders  top daily chart points to 910 - done (log), 830 (arithmetic) - done

27th October:  Approaching arithmetic target of 830 and strong support.

Current target

Medium term: 1. head and shoulders  top daily chart points to 910 - done (log), 830 (arithmetic)
                          2. head and shoulders  top weekly chart points to 930 -  done(log), 860 - done (arithmetic)

Long term: none

20th October:  The index reached target. Good supports in the 800 region.

Current target

Medium term: 1. head and shoulders  top daily chart points to 910 - done (log), 830 (arithmetic)
                          2. head and shoulders  top weekly chart points to 930 -  done(log), 860 (arithmetic)

Long term: none

10th October:  The good support in the first chart has broken. The index is now heading for target.

Current target

Medium term: 1. head and shoulders  top daily chart points to 910 (log), 830 (arithmetic)
                          2. head and shoulders  top weekly chart points to 930 (log), 860 (arithmetic)

Long term: none

6th October:  There is good support at the current level on the daily and weekly index charts and on the fund chart. Target is less than 10% below the current level.

20th September:  The index is testing good support at around 1,000. The top suggests that the support will break.

Current prediction

Medium term: 1. head and shoulders  top daily chart points to 910 (log), 830 (arithmetic)
                          2. head and shoulders  top weekly chart points to 930 (log), 860 (arithmetic)

Long term: none

15th September:  The index is heading for the support at around 1,000. The fund chart is testing support at the current level. We still have a target at around 910.

Current prediction

Medium term: 1. head and shoulders  top daily chart points to 910 (log), 830 (arithmetic)
                          2. head and shoulders  top weekly chart points to 930 (log), 860 (arithmetic)

Long term: none

25th August: 910 here we come - unless the log chart holds a more powerful support at 1,000.

18th August: 930 here we come - unless the log chart holds a more powerful support.

Current prediction

Medium term: 1. head and shoulders  top daily chart points to 910 (log), 830 (arithmetic)
                          2. head and shoulders  top weekly chart points to 930 (log), 860 (arithmetic)

Long term: double bottom target of 1,800 (daily) and 1,700 (weekly) - failed

28th July: 930 here we come - unless the log chart holds a more powerful support. See the EWM chart for a very good long term support.

Current prediction

Medium term: 1. head and shoulders  top daily chart points to 910 (log), 830 (arithmetic)
                          2. head and shoulders  top weekly chart points to 930 (log), 860 (arithmetic)

Long term: double bottom target of 1,800 (daily) and 1,700 (weekly) - questionable

21st July: 930 here we come - unless the log chart holds a more powerful support.

14th July: A bit of a pullback last week. But nothing significant. Last week's comment holds: Good support on the log chart, second from the top. But the weekly charts show a big head and shoulders top broken out with log target in the region of 930.

Current prediction

Medium term: 1. head and shoulders  top daily chart points to 910 (log), 830 (arithmetic)
                          2. head and shoulders  top weekly chart points to 930 (log), 860 (arithmetic)

Long term: double bottom target of 1,800 (daily) and 1,700 (weekly) - questionable

7th July: Good support on the log chart, second from the top. But the weekly charts show a big head and shoulders top broken out with log target in the region of 930.

Current prediction

Medium term: head and shoulders top daily chart points to 910 (log), 830 (arithmetic)
           head and shoulders  top weekly chart points to 930 (log), 860 (arithmetic)

Long term: double bottom target of 1,800 (daily) and 1,700 (weekly) - questionable

30th June: The index looks to be in danger of making a nasty top, with a likely plunge to 930 if a top on the weekly chart breaks.

Current prediction

Medium term: double top points to 960 (log), 900 (arithmetic) - unconfirmed

Long term: double bottom target of 1,800 (daily) and 1,700 (weekly) - questionable

12th May: Very little change last week. The index is still in a bearish channel and still under the threat of a major top. The long term chart is still bullish.

Current prediction

Medium term: double top points to 960 (log), 900 (arithmetic) - unconfirmed

Long term: double bottom target of 1,800 (daily) and 1,700 (weekly) - questionable

5th May: Very little change last week. The index is still in a bearish channel and still under the threat of a major top. The long term chart is still bullish.

28th April: Very little change last week. The index is still in a bearish channel and still under the threat of a major top.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double top points to 960 (log), 900 (arithmetic) - unconfirmed

Long term: double bottom target of 1,800 (daily) and 1,700 (weekly) - questionable

21st April: Very little change last week. The index is still in a bearish channel and still under the threat of a major top.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double top points to 960 (log), 900 (arithmetic) - unconfirmed

Long term: double bottom target of 1,800 (daily) and 1,700 (weekly) - questionable

14th April: The double top in the first chart is still not confirmed. But it is quite likely that target will be reached, especially if the region maintains it's bearish trend.

7th April: The double top in the first chart is still not confirmed. But it is quite likely that target will be reached, especially if the region maintains it's bearish trend.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double top points to 960 (log), 900 (arithmetic) - unconfirmed

Long term: double bottom target of 1,800 (daily) and 1,700 (weekly) - questionable

31st March: The double top in the first chart is still not confirmed. But it appears highly likely that target will be reached.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double top points to 960 (log), 900 (arithmetic) - unconfirmed

Long term: double bottom target of 1,800 (daily) and 1,700 (weekly) - questionable

24th March: A double top has tentatively broken out. If it is confirmed, there is a good chance of a fall back to 1,000. But there is also good support on the log chart at 1,100.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double top points to 960 (log), 900 (arithmetic).

Long term: double bottom tentative target of 1,800 (daily) and 1,700 (weekly) - questionable

10th March:  A big top scenario in the first chart would be activated if the index falls below 1,600 by 50 to 100 points. But at its current level, the index is well supported on the long term log chart. However, it would be months before the top danger would be averted.

3rd March: Good support on the first chart. The index is moving to target on the long term chart.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom tentative target of 1,800 (daily) and 1,700 (weekly)

25th February: Good support on the first chart. The index is moving to target on the long term chart.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom tentative target of 1,800 (daily) and 1,700 (weekly)

21st January:  The index took a drop last week. However, there is nothing to indicate and end to the bullish trend.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom tentative target of 1,800 (daily) and 1,700 (weekly)

7th January 2008:  Nothing much to report: The index made a new high over the last couple of weeks. This augers well for our long term target of 1,700.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom tentative target of 1,800 (daily) and 1,700 (weekly)



2007
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2006
 
20th November: The index broke a long term resistance. The second chart gives good long term upside.

13th November: The long term trend gives plenty of upside. The fund chart gives rise to a double bottom scenario.

6th November: Breakout sustained. Next resistance around 1,040.

30th October: Bullish breakout from a long term resistance in the first chart.

16th October: A nice breakout from a weak long term resistance in the second chart. But the index is still in the range of resistance in the first chart. A rally above 990 would be an encouraging signal.

9th October: Double top danger as the index retests recent highs

2nd October: The index meanders along the resistance in the second chart. Dangerous until the resistance passes.

18th September: The index is retesting the recent high of May. Volume is much weaker. Therefore, chances of breakout are low.

11th September: The index has turned on a resistance and broken out of a rising wedge. The short term outlook, at least, is bearish.

28th August: The index is defying gravity in the first chart and testing long term resistance in the second chart. Only the fund chart gives a bullish hope.

21st August: The index gives a weak picture, but the fund chart is more bullish. Another week might resolve the conflict.

7th August: A reverse head and shoulders in the first chart looks weak. Volume is not sufficient to persuade that the index will break out of resistance at the current level. The medium term outlook is therefore still dangerous

17th July: A retesting of the 890's is likely. After that, it could go either way.

10th July: No clear direction, but a scenario could see the index return to 770 over the next six months or so.

3rd July: Some bullish short term relief. But we're not out of the bearish woods yet.

19th June: A double top scenario is hanging over the index. A fall through 880 support would give a target of .......... Only a small bottom forming on the current support would allay fears of the top.
 

12th June: Index is supported. Next support is at around 885.

8th May: The index has broken resistance at 950 on strong volume. Good chance of 975 in the short term and a strong bull market in the next few months.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: reverse head and shoulders points to 980

Long term: none

1st May: The index is bullish, in line with the regional trend. Currently testing resistance at around 950.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: reverse head and shoulders points to 980

20th February: Failure of a short term support should not have serious consequences. Greater probability is that the index will reach target of 945.

Current prediction

Short term: reverse head and shoulders points to 945

Medium term: none

Long term: none

13th February: Good recent volume suggests that the index is likely to retest 950 in the next week or two.

Current prediction

Short term: reverse head and shoulders points to 945

Medium term: none

Long term: none

6th February: Nice bullish breakout from pattern in the first chart gives another shot at 950 resistance.

Current prediction

Short term: reverse head and shoulders points to 945

Medium term: none

Long term: none

30th January: A bullish short term scenario in the first chart and other reasons for hope in the following charts.

Current prediction

Short term: double bottom points to 930

Medium term: none

Long term: none

23rd January: Some bullish signs: a short term bullish scenario and high turnover. But we should wait till the index breaks 920 on good volume before getting excited. After that, the next test would be a breakout from long term resistance at 950.

Current prediction

Short term: double bottom points to 930

Medium term: none

Long term: none

9th January: A short term bottom in the first chart has cancelled the medium top (same chart) and suggests that the index will more likely follow the regional bullish trend. Next major test is at around 950, the previous recent high.

Current prediction

Short term: double bottom points to 930

Medium term: double top points to 865 - cancelled

Long term: none



2005

12th December: The index is still subject to a bearish target, provided the index does not close above 910.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double top points to 865

Long term: none

5th December: The index has broken a long term support. But there is another support nearby at around 850. A double top points to around 865. A larger double top scenario would see the index fall to 750. But such a fall is unlikely at this stage. The ETF looks well supported. With luck, a turnaround in a month or so.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double top points to 865 - questionable while support at around 900 holds.

Long term: none

21st November: .A short term double top points to 865. But there is a fairly good chance that it will be cancelled, if the supports in the long term charts hold.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double top points to 865

Long term: none
Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double top points to 865

Long term: none

14th November: The index has broken support at 900. But there is support in the long term chart (third below) and the NYSE-listed ETF, EWM.

7th November: Nothing exciting. Just a slow wiggle up a good support. There is a top scenario in the first chart. But I would expect this market to follow the regional trend.

31st October: A double top in the first chart could see the index fall to 890. But there are good supports at the current level and not far below.

17th October: The index looks toppish. But the ETF, EWM, gives a bullish scenario.

10th October: Watch the green support in the first chart.

26th September: Not much to report, other than a slow crawl up a medium term support. Not very exciting.

19th September: The index is climbing up a long term support. This is often a good sign of a surge. But we shall have to wait and see.

12th September: Nothing very exciting with this market. Resistance at 950 is still the major obstacle.

5th September: Nothing exciting for this market. Resistance at 950, in the second chart, is the important resistance to watch.

29th August: The index looks in danger of topping. The target on the daily chart is taking too long for reliability. But the weekly chart looks more persuasive and suggests that the index is well supported and heading to target at 1,070.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom points to 1,070 (daily and weekly) - questionable due to lapse of time. But looks better on the weekly.

22nd August: The index has turned on some strong resistances. Support back at around 880.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom points to 1,070 (daily and weekly) - questionable due to lapse of time

8th August: The index appears to be heading towards our target of 1,070. But the second chart show strong resistance approaching.

1st August: Volume started to build last week. Let's see if it continues for another week or two. Strong resistance on the fund chart.

25th July: The index rallied last week with good volume on Friday. If volume continues to build, there is hope for a sustainable rally. But if volume returns to its previous average of around 6 or 7 hundred million ringgit, I would not be confident of seeing resistance at 950 break.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom points to 1,070 (daily and weekly)

20th July: The index is floating up on low volume; not a healthy state of affairs. Strong resistance at around 950 would be the test.

11th July: The rally of the last couple of weeks is unconvincing, given the low market turnover that accompanied it.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom points to 1,070 (daily and weekly)

27th June:  A bit of a turn at the resistance at 900 shown in the first chart. But otherwise, nothing exciting.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom points to 1,070 (daily and weekly)

20th June: The index has rallied about as far as one could expect, given the rapidity of the rally and the lack of turnover in the market.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom points to 1,070 (daily and weekly)

13th June: The index has moved too fast too soon in the short term. A fall back to the 860 region would not surprise.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom points to 1,070 (daily and weekly)

6th June: Nothing to get excited about. The index needs to rally above 950, on strong volume, in order to wake us up.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: head and shoulders top points to 835

Long term: double bottom points to 1,070 (daily and weekly)

21st  May:  A bullish scenario in the first chart would require much more volume over the next couple of weeks in order to be persuasive. Watch out for supports at around 880 and 870 in the second and third charts.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: head and shoulders top points to 835

Long term: double bottom points to 1,070 (daily and weekly)

16th May: A nice turn on support in the second chart. But resistance at 930 is a major obstacle.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: head and shoulders top points to 835

Long term: double bottom points to 1,070 (daily and weekly)

25th April: Interesting accumulation on the yellow support in the second chart gives rise to the hope that the target in the first chart, 835, might be interrupted.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: head and shoulders top points to 835

Long term: double bottom points to 1,070 (daily and weekly)

11th April: The index is likely to test 835.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: head and shoulders top points to 835

Long term: double bottom points to 1,070 (daily and weekly)

11th April: Good supports at 840 and just below 800. Medium term top points to 835. Fair chance.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: head and shoulders top points to 835

Long term: double bottom points to 1,070 (daily and weekly)

4th April: The index is in danger of falling to 840. Such a fall is highly likely if the index closes below 870.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: head and shoulders top points to 835

Long term: double bottom points to 1,070 (daily and weekly)

21st March: A fall below 880 on the short term chart would suggest a further fall to 880. But the long term support on the second chart must first break, before we consider 830.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom points to 1,070 (daily and weekly)

14th March: Our double bottom pointing to 1,070 still looks safe for the moment as the long term support in the second chart appears to be holding.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom points to 1,070 (daily and weekly)

8th March: Index is testing a strong support at around 88

14th February: Nothing exciting happening. See the weekly chart for a picture of the steady progress of the index to target at 1,070.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom points to 1,070 (daily and weekly)

31st January: Not much to go on, except for the weekly chart, which shows a steady rally to target of 1,070.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom points to 1,070 (daily and weekly)

17th January: A nice breakout from resistance in the index chart. But and even nicer breakout from the long term pattern of the fund chart, suggesting an upside of almost 100 per cent.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom points to 1,070 (daily and weekly)

10th January: No big activity to speak of. This market is still on holiday.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom points to 1,070 (daily and weekly)



2004
20th December: Not much going on with the index. A short term top in the fund chart is cancelled. But that's hardly earth-shattering news.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom points to 1,070 (daily and weekly)

13th December: A short term top could see a fall back to 860. But the bullish character of the market is unchanged.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom points to 1,070 (daily and weekly)

6th December: Target of 1,070 is confirmed after breakout from resistance at 910.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom points to 1,070 (daily and weekly)

20th November: 910 resistance tested last week. Volume was good. With luck we will soon see a breakout and a rally to target.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom points to 1,070 (daily and weekly)

15th November: Nothing very exciting. Some resistances being tested. But the major resistance is at 910.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom points to 1,070 (daily and weekly)

25th October: A lot of sideways movement going on. But nothing substantial to report. A close at 840 would be bearish, but there is good long term support at 830 to consider. The weekly chart is still the best indicator and it is clearly bullish.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom points to 1,070 (daily and weekly)

18th October: I am still hopeful that the index will retest resistance at 910. There is a top scenario in the short term chart, but the second, long term, chart is more persuasive.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom points to 1,070 (daily and weekly)

11th October: Nothing exciting this week. The big test is at around 900.

20th September: The first chart, below, says it all. The big test would be at 910.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom points to 1,070 (daily and weekly)

4th September: Nice turn on support in the first chart gives hope for a retesting of 910, the recent high.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom points to 1,070 (daily and weekly)

30th August: Bearish tops threatening.But they areless likely to break if Malaysia follows the regional trend, which is looking more and more bullish. The weekly chart is still persuasive.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom points to 1,070 (daily and weekly)

23rd August: A long term support has broken in the daily and weekly charts, reducing the chances of a rally to our target of 1,070. However, the target is not cancelled. We'll just have to be patient.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom points to 1,070 (daily and weekly)

9th August: The index is testing important support both on the weekly and daily charts. If the support fails, we should consider our target of 1,070 to be less likely.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom points to 1,070 (daily and weekly)

26th July: The long term daily and weekly charts still look bullish. The danger would be a fall below 770. That is still a long way off and, with luck, will not occur. Keep an eye on the regional trend: Hongkong, the Asia fund page.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom points to 1,070 (daily and weekly)

12th July: The rally last week makes the long term double bottom look more persuasive. Big resistance at 880.

28th June: A very quiet week last week. Good time for a holiday.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom points to 1,070 (daily and weekly)

31st May: The weekly chart is showing signs of confirming the double bottom with target of 1,070. There is still danger of further falls, especially in the short term. But the weekly long term chart is usually a good indicator.

Current prediction

Short term: head and shoulders top points to 795-done

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom points to 1,070 (daily and weekly)

10th May: The second chart shows a target below 800. The strong fall on Monday will contribute to that target. But the most important support is shown in the first chart, which was updated to show Monday's close. The survival of the double bottom now depends on the neckline.

Current prediction

Short term: head and shoulders top points to 795

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom points to 1,070 (daily and weekly)

3rd May: Last Friday, the index closed at a critical support around 840. If the index falls much further, our target of 1,070 will be cancelled. The daily chart has a target of 795. A fall to this level would probably cancel the target of 1,070. But keep an eye on the weekly chart. If the neckline holds on the weekly chart, we could see a rebound.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom points to 1,070 (daily and weekly)

26th April: The second chart shows a strong breakout from a long term bottom. The first chart shows a short term top cancelled. Both charts evidence a strong bullish trend.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom points to 1,070 (daily and weekly)

19th April: A little top in the short term chart could see the index fall back to neckline support in the long term double bottom chart at around 840, or slightly lower. Keep an eye on the weekly chart. The rising channel is an important indicator of the medium term trend.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom points to 1,070 (daily and weekly)

12th April: Still in a bit of limbo. Last week's comments hold: next obstacle is at around 910.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom points to 1,070 (daily and weekly)

5th April: The double bottom pointing to somewhere around 1,050 looks good, both on the daily and on the weekly charts. There is a little hesitation on the daily chart and a possible double top on the fund chart. There is also strong resistance on the long term fund chart. That leaves us with room for doubt. Downside would be 840. But the clearest indicator is the weekly chart, which suggests at least around 1,020.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom points to 1,070 (daily and weekly)

15th March: A clear prediction of 1,070. But the index has stalled at strong resistance of 900. If the rest of the region goes into bear mode, it is likely that the index will fall to the 830 level.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom points to 1,070 (daily and weekly)

8th March: Clear resistance on the medium term chart and on the fund chart.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom points to 1,070 (daily and weekly)

1st March: Strong resistance at 900 on both the daily and weekly charts.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom points to 1,070 (daily and weekly)

23rd February: Very nice breakout on the daily and weekly charts gives a tentative target of 1,070. Strong resistance may be expected at the double resistance on the daily chart at around 900.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom points to 1,070 (daily and weekly)

16th February: A possible short term top. But the longer term shows a bottom with good volume. Let's hope for a breakout upside.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom points to 1,060 (daily and weekly) - not yet confirmed

9th February: A turn a the neckline of our long term reversal pattern dampens hopes of a breakout soon. We'll have to be patient. But the picture looks good.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom points to 1,060 (daily and weekly) - not yet confirmed

26th January: Still waiting for long term breakout.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom points to 1,060 (daily and weekly) - not yet confirmed

19th January: Hesitation around the neckline of our double bottom makes the prediction tentative until we get better confirmation.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom points to 1,060 (daily and weekly) - not yet confirmed

12th January: Medium term breakout gives a target just under 1,100.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom points to 1,080 (daily and weekly) 



2003

29th December: A good support has broken. But I do not expect the index to fall far due to the positive regional trend. In the absence of a top, we will just have to watch and wait.

24th November: Nothing very exciting happened last week. At most, we saw a turn on channel support, which gives some relief. But we still need to hold our breaths for a while.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: none

17th November: The index needs to rally above 820, pullback to the neckline and rally again before we can get a firm prediction.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: 1. double bottom points to 1,060 - not yet confirmed
                    2. double bottom points to 1,050 - not yet confirmed

10th November: Waiting for a close above 820, in order to have a valid breakout from the pattern in the first chart. Volume still very good.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: 1. double bottom points to 1,060 - not yet confirmed
                    2. double bottom points to 1,050 - not yet confirmed

3rd November: The index has almost broken out of a double bottom pointing to above, 1,060. Confirmation by way of pullback and turn on the neckline would be helpful.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: 1. double bottom points to 1,060 - not yet confirmed
                    2. double bottom points to 1,050 - not yet confirmed

27th October: The market inched up a few points last week, which shows resilience in the face of regional weakness. The big test is still the double bottom neckline at 820. My initial guess, back in August - September, was for a breakout in November. I might not be too far off.

20th October: A close at 820, or higher, would give a tentative target of slightly above 1,000.

13th October: Strong rally last week on strong volume increases the chance of a target of around 1,080. I would have preferred a few more weeks of dithering. But the double bottom scenario is now sufficiently well formed to have a good chance on breakout.

6th October: No news is good news for the next few weeks or months.

22nd September: The market is quiet, as expected. Next strong resistance is at around 820. But that could take a few months.

15th September: No news is good news. I want this market to bake a few more months before performing. We would then have a more reliable indicator of bullishness for next year.

8th September: Nothing exciting. The index is building volume an increasing slowly but surely.

1st September: Building volume is a bullish indicator. It might be months before we see a persuasive breakout, but a delay of a few months could be a good thing.

18th August: Nothing much to report other than the fact that recent volume has been strong, adding to the bullish hopes for the index.

11th August: The index is still clinging to a rising support, shown in the first chart. If the support breaks, we can expect the index to fall back to around 690. Resistance at the 730 level is strong.

4th August: Nothing much happening with the index at the moment. But that is probably the best thing for the medium term. The first chart shows a scenario that would require several more weeks or months of sideways movement. On the other hand, the second chart shows an ascending channel that has not yet broken and could easily see the index shoot up to 760 or higher in the short term. That could easily happen if the strong resistance in the third chart were to break.

28th July: A fall back to around 700 would be the best thing for the index now. If the index doesn't fall below this level, but were followed by a rally above 740, we would have a target of around 860.

21st July: Target of 735 has been done. No more targets until the index breaks 840 and that, if it happens, could take a few months. Excellent volume in recent weeks is cause for hope. See the resistance in the third chart.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double bottom points to 735-done

Long term: none

5th July: The index is moving to target and encountering some important resistances. Volume is starting to pick up nicely, improving hopes that the market is on a sustainable rally.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double bottom points to 735

30th June: The index has turned on the neckline of our double bottom, confirming the pattern and increasing the chances of a rally to 735 in the next few weeks.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double bottom points to 735 - confirmed

Long term: none

16th June: Strong volume last week gives cause for hope that the market is bottoming. Good chance that we will see 730 in the coming weeks.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double bottom points to 735 - not yet confirmed by pullback, but highly likely due to volume.

Long term: none

9th June: A double bottom points to 730. There is no confirmation yet. But volume is good.

Current prediction

Short term: double bottom points to 670 - done

Medium term: double bottom points to 735 - not yet confirmed

Long term: none

26th May: Nice breakout from a short term bottom gives hope that the index is bottoming.

Current prediction

Short term: double bottom points to 670

12th May: The index is ambiguous. It could be bottoming or merely preparing for a further fall. Given the recent bullishness in region, I would opt for the former. It could be another month or so before we get a clear picture.

28th April: Positive and negative scenarios to consider. The negative scenario has a neckline at 610. But to be confident, we should see the index fall below 600 before getting bearish. On the upside, we should be prepared to wait a month or two and then, to be confident, we should see turnover up around 1 billion ringgit per day.

18th April: Support and scenario is the best we have. Could be a while (a few months) before we see excitement with this market.

29th March: There is a chance of a bottom, provided index stays above support at 620.

24th March: A medium term bottom scenario would require two or three months to form and much more volume.

17th March: The index is now testing a good support. The support below that is around 590. Other than that, there are no indicators of direction.

10th March: Given the bearishness of the region, the support at around 600 would be the best hope for the region.

3rd March: The medium term target of 700 is cancelled.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double bottom points to 700 - cancelled

Long term: none

24th  February: A double bottom still points to 700, but the length of time of the pullback casts doubt on the target of 700. (ie, it should have started moving by now.)

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double bottom points to 700

10th  February: Still waiting for something decisive to happen. A close at 650, or slightly lower, would cancel our bullish target. Long term support is good. Volume is good. So there is still a bullish hope.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double bottom points to 700

Long term: none

3rd February: The little double bottom in the first chart below has a good chance, but it is likely to have short term implications only. The index is more likely to falter at resistance between 720 and 750, assuming it gets that high.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double bottom points to 700

Long term: none

27th January: A nice little bottom failed today (not shown). However, the bottom still looks good and, as the first chart shows, the index has a habit of making little bottoms. Perhaps there is still some bull left in the short term trend.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double bottom points to 720 - cancelled as of today (not shown on last Friday's chart.)

Long term: none

13th January: The index is now sitting on a good support. There is a double bottom scenario. But it requires a close of 670 on good volume.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: head and shoulders top points to 610 (log) and arithmetic 590

Long term: none 



2002

23rd December: Possible bottom at the current level. We will have to be patient for a week or two or three.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: head and shoulders top points to 610 (log) and arithmetic 590

Long term: none

16th December: The index could be making a short term bottom. But it's too early to tell.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: head and shoulders top points to 610 (log) and arithmetic 590

Long term: none

9th December: The index is close enough to target. Now let's see what happens.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: head and shoulders top points to 610 (log) and arithmetic 590 (arithmetic)

Long term: none

2nd December: 610, or the support slightly higher, is still the greater probability.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: head and shoulders top points to 610 (log) and arithmetic 590 (arithmetic)

Long term: none

18th November: Nothing to change the outlook. 610 is still the most probable outcome.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: head and shoulders top points to 610 (log) and arithmetic 590 (arithmetic)

Long term: none
 

11th November: A week of doing nothing. 610 is still on the cards.

2nd November: The index appears to be turning on resistance shown in the first chart. My guess is still that we will see 610 in coming weeks.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: head and shoulders top points to 610 (log) and arithmetic 590 (arithmetic)

Long term: none

28th October: The bear was in hybernation last week. Nothing to report.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: head and shoulders top points to 610 (log) and arithmetic 590 (arithmetic)

Long term: none

19th October: Last week's rally did not have impressive volume. A bottom might form at the current level. But the more likely outcome is that the index will continue falling at least until 610.

12th October: Still waiting for 610.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: head and shoulders top points to 610 (log) and arithmetic 590 (arithmetic)

Long term: none

7th October: Heading for target at 610 or lower.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: head and shoulders top points to 610 (log) and arithmetic 590 (arithmetic)

Long term: none

30th September: The greater probability is that the index will fall to 610, and perhaps 580. Keep in mind the long term scenario with a bottom at 250.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: head and shoulders top points to 610 (log) and arithmetic 590 (arithmetic)

Long term: none

23rd September: The medium term top is still valid. A possible wedge could interrupt the target. But the weekly chart offers greatest hope for a bottom at the current level. Another week of falls would erase that hope.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: head and shoulders top points to 610 (log) and arithmetic 590 (arithmetic)

Long term: none

16th September: The index pulled back to the neckline of the top pointing to 610 and turned, confirming the target. A fall to 670 would make the target of 610 even more likely. But there are still a few good long term supports that could stall the fall.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: head and shoulders top points to 608.30 (log) and arithmetic 593 (arithmetic)

Long term: none

9th September: This market appears to be entering a medium term bear trend that could see a fall as low as 400. That seems a bit drastic at the moment (there is good support at around 660 and even 680. But it pays to be aware of the downside. Those of us who have been monitoring the index for many a year will be aware of the propensity of a bear market to drag on, and the propensity of punters to hope away the greater probability at the outset of the trend. The persuasive indicator is the head and shoulders top in the first chart, which has broken leg support and is confirmed. The only defect is the slight rise of the neckline, which tends to indicate a rising, rather than falling trend. Another week of falls would dispel any doubts.

2nd September: A top is forming. If it breaks with a close at 690, we would have a valid prediction of 600. But there is good support at 680 on the weekly chart and 660 on the daily chart. These supports would add uncertainty to a prediction of 600.

26th August: .The index is clinging tenaciously to support. This is often an encouraging sign. But we'll have to wait and see if anything positive develops. More volume would be encouraging.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: reverse head and shoulders points to 860, now unlikely

19th August: The index is turning nicely on long term support, conforming to our long term reversal scenario. But volume is inadequate.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: reverse head and shoulders points to 860, now unlikely

12th August: Rising support at the current level is currently being tested. If it fails, the next support would be at around 660. A head and shoulders top could give a target of 600 if the index closes at around 690. There is also a chance of a reverse head and shoulders, if the index rebounds strongly on its current support. But give the regional weakness, chances of such a rebound are less.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: reverse head and shoulders points to 860, now unlikely

22nd July: No change from last week. We are still waiting for the test of support at 720. After that, there is a rang of supports between 670 and 700. But a fall through the short term support at 690 would trigger a top pointing to 600, at which point there would be no support until around 570.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: reverse head and shoulders points to 860, now unlikely

15th July: Our bullish long term scenario still has a chance so long as the index remains above the support at 710 -720. Short term topping danger if the support fails.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: reverse head and shoulders points to 860, now unlikely

8th July: The index rebounded last week sufficiently to cancel the top pointing to 670. Now all we have is a longish term reversal scenario which could take some months to build.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: reverse head and shoulders points to 860, now unlikely

1st July: The index is now on a good medium term channel support. If it holds, the index has a chance of making a nice long term reversal pattern. If the support fails, there is more good long term support around 660 to 690.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: head and shoulders top points to 690 - 670 - but support at 700 might defeat it.

Long term: reverse head and shoulders points to 860, now unlikely

24th June: Nothing persuasive on the daily charts. But the weekly chart gives a possible bullish scenario.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: reverse head and shoulders points to 860, now questionable.

10th June: The target of 860 is now questionable, due to the failure of the narrow channel that had previously defined the ascent of the index. Still a chance. But a fall back to 720 might give something better.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: reverse head and shoulders points to 860, now questionable.

3rd June: The index has fallen further than I would have hoped, raising a modicum of doubt about our target of 860. Medium to long term prospects are still hopeful. Next support is at around 725.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: reverse head and shoulders points to 860.

27th May: The index is still bullish but may pull back to 750 before recovering. If the index fall back to 725, we could see a larger bullish pattern appear.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: reverse head and shoulders points to 860.

13th May: A case of "no news is good news". Target of 860 still looks like the greater probability.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: reverse head and shoulders points to 860.

6th May: No significant change from last week. Target of 860 is still the most likely scenario.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: reverse head and shoulders points to 860.

28th April: Volume is building nicely. 860 has a good chance. But then what? Volume is too low to support a bullish long term scenario. Perhaps that will come later. But in such event, we should be looking at volume around three times the current level.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: reverse head and shoulders points to 860.

21st April: The index is moving to target on 860. The medium term looks bright. The long term is still a question mark, due to relatively low volume.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: reverse head and shoulders points to 860.

8th April: The index is now at a fair resistance. We could either see a breakout and rally to 860 or a double top and a fall back to the 725 level. The medium outlook is bullish, favouring the former scenario. But the long term is still unclear.

31st March: The medium term is still bullish. But the long term is ambiguous, as there is no clear long term bottoming scenario, and current volume, in the long term context, is still negligible.

9th March: Resistances have now been passed. Accordingly, we can confirm the target of 860.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  reverse head and shoulders points to 860

2nd March: The index is still facing resistance at around 730 and 750. However, the reversal pattern pointing to 860 is sufficient to allow us to expect that target will be reached.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  reverse head and shoulders points to 860 subject to a good breakout from the resistance at 730

25th February: The index failed to pass the resistance at around 730. A small double top is forming. If it breaks, we could see a fall back to 670.

18th February: The index rebounded to the resistance at 730. If this resistance breaks on good volume we can confirm the target.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  reverse head and shoulders points to 860 subject to a good breakout from the resistance at 730

11th February: The index has a resistance at 730 to break. If this happens on strong volume, we would have a good chance of 860. Volume has been building nicely over the last few weeks, giving cause for hope.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  reverse head and shoulders points to 860

2nd February: The index has a valid target of 860. The only obstacle is resistance somewhere below 740.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  reverse head and shoulders points to 860

28thJanuary: The medium term pattern still looks good. But the long term chart gives cause for doubt.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  reverse head and shoulders points to 860

6th January: Good volume and a good reversal pattern give the index a fair chance at 860. Resistance at around 720 will be the next test. There is also the question of the strange long term pattern in the longest term daily chart and the fact that volume is still very low for a sustainable rally. Compare the volume in the current rally in Korea.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  reverse head and shoulders points to 860 


2001

24th December: The medium term is encouraging with good recent volume. But a break above 680 is needed on strong volume, then 720, in order to sustain the current rally.

10th December: A very nice long term reverse head and shoulders pattern is building. Volume looks quite persuasive. If it breaks, it will be a very clear indication that the long term bear has turned to a bull trend.

24th November: Both the fund and the index indicate a good chance for a long term reversal.

Current prediction

Short term: double bottom points to 655

19th November: A short term bottom points to 660. Volume is questionable. But it could be the start of a bottom, if volume keeps building.

Current prediction

Short term: double bottom points to 660

12th November: A long term support has broken. A short term pattern could indicate further falls. But it has not yet broken.

22nd October: A short term triangle offers hope if it breaks out soon. If the index merely stays within the triangle, it will fizzle and give no clear direction.

15th October: The index is consolidating on a long term support. But there is no indication of a bottom.

8th October: Not much to go on this week. Supports from last week are still holding. But I wouldn't be surprised if they break soon as the most likely scenario is still a big double bottom, that retest the previous low around 300.

1st October: Good long term support at the current level. If it breaks, the next support would be 580. If that breaks, the next support would be 520. If that breaks, we should expect the previous low to be retested, at around 200. See also the support on the fund chart. With luck, a bottom is approaching.

17th September: The index is still within the range of a medium term reversal pattern, giving bullish hopes. But when viewed in the context of the long term, the index appears still to be in decline.

10th September Volume is good on the medium term chart, giving hope for a bottom. But on the long term chart, volume is tiny, reducing the chance of a long term bottom at the current leve

27th August: Against the odds, the double bottom target of 680 was reached last week, cancelling our top pointing to 430. But volume is still minimal. Without a surge of daily turnover to the level of two or three billion ringgit, the index is unlikely to rally much further.

Current prediction

Short term: rising wedge point to 605 - cancelled

Medium term: a questionable double bottom points to 680 - done

Long term:  head and shoulders top pointing to 430 (log) and 310 (arithmetic). Cancelled.

20th August: A quiet week last week. My guess is that a double top is forming in the short term. A close at 670 or higher, on good volume, would change that opinion.

Current prediction

Short term: rising wedge point to 605

Medium term: a questionable double bottom points to 680. But it has long term resistance to overcome at 650.

Long term:  head and shoulders top pointing to 430 (log) and 310 (arithmetic). Cancelled if index closes above 670.

13th August: Strong resistance at the 660 level is unlikely to be overcome. More likely, a return to support at 605. 430 is still a reasonable chance. The head and shoulders top pointing to that level should now be reconsidered, warts and all.

Current prediction

Short term: rising wedge point to 605

Medium term: a questionable double bottom points to 680. But it has long term resistance to overcome at 650.

Long term:  head and shoulders top pointing to 430 (log) and 310 (arithmetic). Cancelled if index closes above 670.

6th August: The weekly chart has rebounded slightly above the neckline of head and shoulders top pattern. This is encouraging. But we really need to see daily chart resistances at around 670 break on good volume before getting hopeful about a bottom. Recent volume is good. But it is still not sufficient to persuade of a long term reversal.

30th July: The index is trapped under strong resistances at around 660. If these resistances break, we can cancel the bearish pattern pointing to 430. But if the index turns and falls, the targets will be confirmed.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: a questionable double bottom points to 680. But it has long term resistance to overcome at 650.

Long term:  head and shoulders top pointing to 430 (log) and 310 (arithmetic). Cancelled if index closes above 670

23rd July: The index has made a good medium term pattern pointing to 680. But long term resistances make the prediction unreliable.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: a questionable double bottom points to 680. But it has long term resistance to overcome at 650.

Long term:  head and shoulders top pointing to 430 (log) and 310 (arithmetic). Cancelled if index closes above 670.

16th July: Not much change from last week. The index needs to hold above 640 in order to avoid further downside.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: a questionable double bottom points to 680. But it has long term resistance to overcome at 650.

Long term:  head and shoulders top pointing to 430 (log) and 310 (arithmetic). Cancelled if index closes above 670.

9th July: An interesting breakout from a double bottom occurred last week. But there are problems with the pattern and strong resistance is approaching. 650 needs to pass before we can confirm the target, and then, only 680.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: a questionable double bottom points to 680. But it has long term resistance to overcome at 650.

Long term:  head and shoulders top pointing to 430 (log) and 310 (arithmetic). Cancelled if index closes above 670.

18th June: The index is probably making a medium term triangle. If this is the case, we would need to see a fall to 560 or 570. At that point, we would either see a failure of support at 560, or a rebound. If the support fails, 480 would be the target. A breakout upside would need to break 620 on persuasive volume, otherwise failure would be a danger.

Looking at the weekly chart, I can foresee a long term double bottom, with the previous low of around 300 being retested. Just a hunch. But it's a credible long term scenario.

4th June: No excitement in this market. Volume is still at a dribble.

Current prediction

Long term:  head and shoulders top pointing to 430 (log) and 310 (arithmetic). Cancelled if closes above 670.

21st  May: No great change last week. I am beginning to doubt the pattern pointing to 430. But I can't see any credible reversal scenario that would preclude a fall to retest previous lows. Perhaps a long term ascending triangle. But we should not rule out a retesting of the previous low for the market.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  head and shoulders top pointing to 430 (log) and 310 (arithmetic). Cancelled if closes above 670.

7th May: The index awoke from its slumbers mid last week. But it soon settled back into its bearish mode with a drop on Friday erasing all of the week's gains.

23rd  April: This market is pretty much asleep. There is a little support at the current level. But 430 is still a good chance.

9th April: 430 is a confirmed log target. But long term support could be as low as 300.

2nd April: A head and shoulders top on the weekly chart has broken. Target is 440. But the index could fall a lot further, even making a new low. Good support at around 600.

19th March: Still not much going on. But a fall to 640 will confirm 430.

19th February: The index has a chance of reversing if it can reach 740 on strong volume. Otherwise, support is at around 660, or slightly higher.

12th February: The index could be making a little reversal pattern at the current level. But it could just as easily be turning on a strong resistance before heading for a new low. The point is that the index hasn't reversed, and until it does, we should presume that the trend is down.

5th February: The index has rallied sufficiently to cancel our long term target of 500. We still don't have a good reversal pattern indicating a bull market. The trend is still down until we get such a pattern. Resistance is at 745.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  head and shoulders top points to 540 or 500. Cancelled.

29th January: There is a little short term bottom that might be forming. But the long term top is not yet cancelled. We need to see the index rally to around 730 or, better still, 750 in order to cancel the top. The weekly chart and the fund chart give some encouragement. But not enough yet.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  head and shoulders top points to 540 or 500. Cancelled if the index closes at 730.

22nd January: The short term head and shoulders top pointing to 620 is cancelled. But the long term target will not be cancelled unless the index breaks above 720 or 730.

Current prediction

Short term: A head and shoulders top points to 620 - cancelled

Medium term: none

Long term:  head and shoulders top points to 540 or 500.

8th January: The index has broken a couple of tops and looks like it will fall to 620, then 540 and maybe 500.

Current prediction

Short term: A head and shoulders top points to 620.

Medium term: none

Long term:  head and shoulders top points to 540 or 500.

2000

18th December: The weekly chart has broken a head and shoulders top pointing to 500 on a log scale. The target is not confirmed, due to the marginal breakout. But chances will increase if the index closes down a few more points next week. In that event, downside would be 400.

Current prediction

Short term: nothing

Medium term: none

Long term:  head and shoulders top will give a log target of 500 if the neckline breaks. A close at 700 would break the neckline.

4th December: Looks like long term daily support is soon to be retested. If it fails, and if the index closes at 700, the long term head and shoulders top will give a prediction of 500.

Current prediction

Short term: nothing

Medium term: none

Long term:  head and shoulders top will give a log target of 500 if the neckline breaks. A close at 700 would break the neckline.

27th November: The index is sitting on a good long term support. We should either see a rally on good volume, making a bottom on this support, or a fall through support giving a target of 500. Beware a rally on low volume, making a right shoulder symmetrical to that of April 1999.

20th November: A little short term pattern on the fund chart points down. The next support for the index is at around 710. Low current volume does not support any rally scenarios.

Current prediction

Short term: nothing

Medium term: a wedge points to 950. But the wedge, alone, is not reliable. Better look to wait for confirmation by other patterns.

Long term:  none

13th November: 740 is the support to watch this week. If the index falls below this support, we are likely to see 700 retested. Low volume last week does not encourage hopes of imminent rallies.

Current prediction

Short term: nothing

Medium term: a wedge points to 950. But the wedge, alone, is not reliable. Better look to wait for confirmation by other patterns.

Long term:  none

6th November: The index shed a few points last week, conforming to the reversal scenario that I outlined last week. A rally to 800 on strong volume will reverse the bearish trend that started in January this year. Failing that, we should consider the top with downside of 500, or below.

Current prediction

Short term: nothing

Medium term: a wedge points to 950. But the wedge, alone, is not reliable. Better look to wait for confirmation by other patterns.

Long term:  none

30th October: The index is rallying nicely, following the breakout from a medium term falling wedge. But the weeks and months ahead are likely to be a time of high anxiety. First, the KLSE rally is going against the regional trend. There is a chance that it is merely making a right shoulder for a long term bearish pattern. Volume is still tiny, compared to that of recent rallies. Such a rally on low volume supports both the long term head and shoulders top scenario and the incipient reversal from bear to bull trend. The only valid pattern at the moment is the falling wedge, which is a guide to the current trend, but it is insufficient. With luck we will soon see a more reliable reversal pattern, such as a reverse head and shoulders. But the spectre of the bear will not be erased for many months. The downside of 500 or 400 will remain until then.

Current prediction

Short term: nothing

Medium term: a wedge points to 950. But the wedge, alone, is not reliable. Better look to wait for confirmation by other patterns.

Long term:  none

23rd October: The index has broken out of a short term double bottom. Target is 810. No sign of a medium term pattern developing yet. But there is a danger of a long term bearish pattern.

Current prediction

Short term: a double bottom points to 810. Resistance at 820

Medium term: a wedge points to 950. But the wedge, alone, is not reliable. Better look to wait for confirmation by other patterns.

Long term:  none

16th October: The index broke out of a falling wedge. There is a good chance of some more upside, but confirmation by way of a second reversal pattern would be more convincing. Resistance at around 790.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: a wedge points to 950. But the wedge, alone, is not reliable. Better look to wait for confirmation by other patterns.

Long term:  none

9th October: The index is on a good long term support. So is the fund. There is a chance of a rebound at the current level. If the current support fails, we should look to the next good support at around 550.

2nd October: The next good support is at around 700. But a small double top points to around 690.

Current prediction

Short term: head and shoulders top points to 710; a tiny double top points to 690.

25th September: 700 still looks like compelling point for the index. If support at this level fails, the next good support is at 580. But there is also the chance of a surprise reversal, due to the falling wedge in the charts below.

Current prediction

Short term: head and shoulders top points to 710

18th September: The index is still in a bearish mode. However, there is hope for a reversal in the form of a falling wedge.

11th September: The index is heading for support at around 700. A short term pattern points to 710. The only hope of interruption is in the fund, which is well supported at the current level and could be making a reversal.

4th September: The index broke out of a short term head and shoulders top. But a good long term support might intervene to prevent further falls and cancel the short term pattern. If it doesn't and the index keeps falling, we are likely to see a fall to 710 in the short term.

Current prediction

Short term: head and shoulders top points to 710

14th August: Good long term support now and at around 750.

7th August: The index is clinging to a good support. There is a chance of a reversal at the current level if the support holds.

31st July: Nothing clear. There are supports in many places. Around 780 is the strongest. Then 750. Then 700. There's a danger of a top that could take the index below 450. But it's too early to worry about that. The fund chart has a good support at a point 4% lower than its current level, corresponding to around 760 on the index. With luck a bottom will form there.

24th July: The index pulled back a few points last week. With luck we will see a bigger reversal pattern develop. Meanwhile, there are some encouraging supports on the long term daily and weekly charts.

Current prediction

Short term: double bottom points to 885.

Medium term: none

Long term:  none

17th July: The index has made a little double bottom after turning on a long term support. The fund has broken out of a wedge after turning on support. Good chance of 895, perhaps beyond.

Current prediction

Short term: double bottom points to 895.

Medium term: A multi-top points to 760 arithmetic. Cancelled.

10th July: The top pointing to around 760 is still valid. But the index is supported at the current level. There is a chance of a reversal at the current level.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: A multi-top points to 760 arithmetic.

Long term:  none

3rd July: Index could be reversing short term - or we could merely be seeing a pullback to the medium term top. A fall to 760 is still probable, unless we see a rally above 850 on strong volume.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: A multi-top points to 760 arithmetic. But a wedge could interrupt the fall.

Long term:  none

26th June: We now have a valid target of 760 and good long term support at this level, or a little below (740). With luck, the bear will stop at this point. The long term weekly chart has good support at the current level, as does the long term fund chart, giving hope for a reversal at the current level.

Current prediction

Short term: A multi-top points to 760 arithmetic. But a wedge could interrupt the fall.

Medium term: none

Long term:  none

19th June: The index returned to close at its recent intraday low, adding more fuel to the prediction of 800. At that level, there is no good support. 800 would therefore not likely be a bottom.

Long term bullish predictions are still valid, but only by a small margin. If the index falls to 800 they will be cancelled.

Current prediction

Short term: head and shoulders top points to 800, cancelled if the index rallies above 890.

Medium term: none

Long term:  A reverse head and shoulders points to 1,400 - doubtful now, due to the pullback below the neckline.

12th June: A short term pattern points to 800 - 810. It's a pretty clear pattern. Our long term pattern pointing to 1,450 is holding by a thread, but chances are that it will soon be cancelled.

Current prediction

Short term: head and shoulders top points to 800, cancelled if the index rallies above 890.

Medium term: none

Long term:  A reverse head and shoulders points to 1,400 - doubtful now, due to the pullback below the neckline.

5th June: The KLSE has one of the last remaining bullish targets in the region. But if the index falls much below its current level, the targets will be cancelled.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double bottom points to 1,150

Long term:  A reverse head and shoulders points to 1,400 - "leg" resistance, at about 1,030, needs to break first. Cancelled if the index falls to 860.

15th May: Not much action last week. There's good support on the weekly chart at 900. And long term bullish targets are still valid. Daily chart support is around 860.

Current prediction

Short term: head and shoulders points to 830

Medium term: double bottom points to 1,150

Long term:  A reverse head and shoulders points to 1,400 - "leg" resistance, at about 1,030, needs to break first.

8th May: The index rallied on a spike of volume. But the short term picture is not yet impressive. There is no short term bottom to mark the turn of the medium term trend. Thus a fall to as low as 830 should not be ruled out, although I consider it unlikely. Support at around 860 is strong.

Current prediction

Short term: head and shoulders points to 818

Medium term: double bottom points to 1,150

Long term:  A reverse head and shoulders points to 1,400 - "leg" resistance, at about 1,030, needs to break first.

1st May: A top points to 795 . But there is good long term support at around 860, which should be given priority. The fund chart is holding on valiantly, giving further bullish confidence to the outlook.

Current prediction

Short term: head and shoulders points to 795.

Medium term: double bottom points to 1,050. Not a useful prediction.

Long term: 1. A reverse head and shoulders points to 1,120
                   2. A reverse head and shoulders points to 1,400 - "leg" resistance needs to break first.

24th April: A target of 780 is valid. There is good long term support at 850, which might interrupt the fall. Otherwise, a rally above 900 is needed to cancel the target.

Current prediction

Short term: head and shoulders points to 780.

Medium term: double bottom points to 1,050. Not a useful prediction.

Long term: 1. A reverse head and shoulders points to 1,120
                   2. A reverse head and shoulders points to 1,400 - "leg" resistance needs to break first.

17th April: The index is still above the key support at 850. Provided this support holds, our target of 1,450 remains valid.

25th March: The index is throwing out ambiguous signals. But there is no reason to suspect that the bullish party will soon end. We still have a valid target of 1,120, and with target reached, we should be able to confirm 1,400. Important supports are at around 940 and 850.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double bottom points to 1,050. Not a useful prediction.

Long term: 1. A reverse head and shoulders points to 1,120

20th March: A short term pattern could see a fall to 800. Critical support is at around 890. But the index is well supported at the current level on neckline support. A turn on good volume at the current level, and a rally above 1,050, will confirm our target of 1,400.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double bottom points to 1,050. Not a useful prediction.

Long term: 1. A double bottom points to 1,120
                  2. A reverse head and shoulders points to 1,400 - "leg" resistance needs to break first.

13th March: The index turned nicely on neckline support last week. The next major hurdle is 1,050, or slightly under that level.

Current prediction

Short term: double top points to 950 - done

Medium term: double bottom points to 1,070. Good volume.

Long term: 1. A double bottom points to 1,120
                   2. A reverse head and shoulders points to 1,400 - "leg" resistance needs to break first.
 
 

6th March: The index hit target for our double top and turned. The index is now well supported. With luck, we will see the index consolidate at the current level and not fall further. A rally from the current level would confirm the neckline pointing to 1,400.

Current prediction

Short term: double top points to 950 - done

Medium term: double bottom points to 1,070. Good volume.

Long term: 1. A double bottom points to 1,120
                   2. A reverse head and shoulders points to 1,400 - "leg" resistance needs to break first.

28th February: The market is looking healthy. But resistance at the current level needs to break before we can confirm our higher target of 1,400.

Current prediction

Short term: double top points to 950.

Medium term: none

Long term: 1. A double bottom points to 1,120
                   2. A reverse head and shoulders points to 1,400 - "leg" resistance needs to break first.

21st February: The index is moving higher on higher volume. This is a good sign. It improves the chances that the index will rally to 1,400 in the medium term. Resistance at 1,000 proved not to be significant. But a double resistance at 1,060 will be a difficult hurdle to pass. It could see a pullback to the neckline of our long term pattern, somewhere below 950.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: 1. A reverse head and shoulders pointing to 1,000 - done
                    2. A double bottom points to 1,120
                    3. A reverse head and shoulders points to 1,400

14th February: Volume is building to levels that make the prediction of 1,400 look safe. Our target of 1,000, issued in May last year, was reached last week. Next target is 1,120. But there could be a bit of correction before that level. Resistance is somewhere between 1,040 and 1,060. Weekly resistance (Friday close) is bang on 1,050.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: 1. A reverse head and shoulders pointing to 1,000 - done
                    2. A double bottom points to 1,120
                    3. A reverse head and shoulders points to 1,400

31st January: We now have a new long term target of 1,400. Volume isn't great. But it is OK and probably enough to facilitate a meander to 1,400. Resistance at current level could see a short term pullback to 900. 1,050 is the next resistance.

Current prediction

Short term: a pennant could point to 1,050, the next long term resistance; or it could be a triangle if breakout is downside.

Medium term: none

Long term: 1. A reverse head and shoulders pointing to 1,000. - almost done
                    2. A reverse head and shoulders points to 1,400

10th January: The index began the year with some good volume. 850 should be reached soon. But the big test will be around 900, at which point the index will meet the neckline of a long term pattern pointing to 1,400. However, I would prefer to see a lot more volume attending the breakout than we currently have. A build-up to 3 billion ringgit per day would be nice and a breakout on 5 billion would be idea.

Current prediction

Short term: a reverse head and shoulders points to 850.

Medium term: none

Long term: 1. reverse head and shoulders pointing to 1,000.
                    2. A double bottom points to 1,120.


History  from 1996 to 1999


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