History of Korea Composite Price Index

2009

8th June: Last week's comment applies: A nice little bottom has occurred on good volume giving a target of 1,550. What happens at that level is another matter. The bottom is large enough to reverse the long term bearish trend. But it is also small enough to merely be the first of a larger set of bottoming patterns. We shall have to wait and see.

11th May: Volume is still good. Last week's comment applies: A nice little bottom has occurred on good volume giving a target of 1,550. What happens at that level is another matter. The bottom is large enough to reverse the long term bearish trend. But it is also small enough to merely be the first of a larger set of bottoming patterns. We shall have to wait and see.

Current target
Medium term: double bottom points to 1,550

2nd May: Volume is still good. Last week's comment applies: A nice little bottom has occurred on good volume giving a target of 1,550. What happens at that level is another matter. The bottom is large enough to reverse the long term bearish trend. But it is also small enough to merely be the first of a larger set of bottoming patterns. We shall have to wait and see.

Current target
Medium term: double bottom points to 1,550

27th April: Volume is still good. Last week's comment applies: A nice little bottom has occurred on good volume giving a target of 1,550. What happens at that level is another matter. The bottom is large enough to reverse the long term bearish trend. But it is also small enough to merely be the first of a larger set of bottoming patterns. We shall have to wait and see.

Current target
Medium term: double bottom points to 1,550

20th April:  Volume is still good. Last week's comment applies: A nice little bottom has occurred on good volume giving a target of 1,550. What happens at that level is another matter. The bottom is large enough to reverse the long term bearish trend. But it is also small enough to merely be the first of a larger set of bottoming patterns. We shall have to wait and see.

Current target
Medium term: double bottom points to 1,550
13th April:  A nice little bottom has occurred on good volume giving a target of 1,550. What happens at that level is another matter. The bottom is large enough to reverse the long term bearish trend. But it is also small enough to merely be the first of a larger set of bottoming patterns. We shall have to wait and see.

Current target
Medium term: double bottom points to 1,550
16th March:  The index is testing a resistance in the first chart. Other than that there are no clear short term indicators.

2nd March:  A small top in the first chart is likely to see the index fall back to the 950 to 900 range in the next week or two.

23rd  February:  A small top in the first chart is likely to see the index fall back to the 950 to 900 range in the next week or two.

2nd February:  More volume is needed before we are likely to see a bottom. A good support in the second chart could be the basis for a bottom, which would more likely take a few months to a year.



2008
20th October:  Targets all done. Now wait for a bottom. Supports are still a way off.

Current target
Medium term: 1. Daily chart head and shoulders top points to (log) 1,300 - done; (arithmetic) 1,200 - done
                         2. Weekly chart head and shoulder top points to (log) 1,320- done ;  (arithmetic) 1,250 - done

6th October:  Possible support at the current level on the first chart. But the outstanding target of 1,300 is the greater probability.

20th September:  Possible support at the current level on the first chart. But the outstanding target of 1,300 is the greater probability.

Current predictions
Medium term: 1. Daily chart head and shoulders top points to (log) 1,300; (arithmetic) 1,200
                         2. Weekly chart head and shoulder top points to (log) 1,320;  (arithmetic: 1,250

15th September:  Possible support at the current level on the first chart. But the outstanding target of 1,300 is the greater probability.

Current predictions
Medium term: 1. Daily chart head and shoulders top points to (log) 1,300; (arithmetic) 1,200
                         2. Weekly chart head and shoulder top points to (log) 1,320;  (arithmetic: 1,250

8th September:  Possible support at the current level on the first chart. But the outstanding target of 1,300 is the greater probability.

Current predictions
Medium term: 1. Daily chart head and shoulders top points to (log) 1,300; (arithmetic) 1,200
                         2. Weekly chart head and shoulder top points to (log) 1,320;  (arithmetic: 1,250

25th August:  A clear breakout from a double top on the daily and weekly charts suggests that this market is now in bear mode. Targets listed below.

18th August:  A clear breakout from a double top on the daily and weekly charts suggests that this market is now in bear mode. Targets listed below.

Current predictions
Medium term: 1. Daily chart head and shoulders top points to (log) 1,200; (arithmetic) 1,100
                         2. Weekly chart head and shoulder top points to (log) 1,320;  (arithmetic: 1,250

14th July:  A clear breakout from a double top on the daily and weekly charts suggests that this market is now in bear mode. Targets listed below.

Current predictions
Medium term: 1. Daily chart head and shoulders top points to (log) 1,200; (arithmetic) 1,100
                      2. Weekly chart head and shoulder top points to (log) 1,320;  (arithmetic: 1,250

7th July:  Still no breakouts sufficient to break the bullish trend.

30th June:  Good supports at the current level. The index is still in a bullish trend. Let's see if the support holds. A fall below 1,550 would be a bearish trigger.

Current predictions
Short term: none

5th May:  A short term bottom points to 1,900. The long term bullish trend is now the more likely influence.

Current predictions
Short term: double bottom points to 1,900

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency: none

28th April:  Good consolidation on the bottom in the first chart implies more evidence that the index is bottoming.

21st April:  Good consolidation on the bottom in the first chart implies more evidence that the index is bottoming.

14th April:  Good consolidation on the bottom in the first chart implies more evidence that the index is bottoming.

7th April:  The rally last week was persuasive. It saw the index break a small double bottom and cancelling the big double top. The second chart clearly shows a continuation of the long term bull trend. This market gives the strongest evidence for regional bottoming.

31st March:  A possible bottom in the first chart could see the index escape the jaws of a big double top. However, the EWY fund chart paints a different picture. It shows a clear breakout from long term support and clear top that has broken out.

24th March:  Looking weaker, but still not a decisive breakout from the double top.

3rd March:  A big top scenario in the first chart would be activated if the index falls below 1,600 by 50 to 100 points. But at its current level, the index is well supported on the long term log chart. However, it would be months before the top danger would be averted.

25th February:  A big top scenario in the first chart would be activated if the index falls below 1,600 by 50 to 100 points. But at its current level, the index is well supported on the long term log chart. However, it would be months before the top danger would be averted.

21st January:  A big top scenario in the first chart would be activated if the index falls below 1,600. But at its current level, the index is well supported on the long term log chart.

14th January:  Failure of support in the first chart. Support on the log chart at 1,700. Failure of support at 1,600 would suggest a fall back to 1,300. Plenty of time for that.

7th January:  The first chart shows a bit more consolidation on the rising support, suggesting upside in the short term. But it's still anyone's guess.

Current predictions
Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (weekly) points to 2,100

Currency: none



2007

17th December:  Still a bit of ambiguity in the first chart. But the long term weekly log chart looks like the market is likely to be in bull mode for quite a few years.

Current predictions
Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (weekly) points to 2,100

Currency: none
19th November:  Two long term log scale charts below with targets in the 3,000 region. I have no idea whether they have predictive value. But they are interesting to compare to the long term arithmetic scale charts. The log charts give higher targets. At the least, the log charts give an upside scenario that is worth contemplating.

Current predictions
Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (weekly) points to 2,100
12th November:  A double top scenario in the first chart is starting to emerge. A fall below 1,900 would be the first sign

15th October:  A new high on the weekly chart and breakout from long term resistance is bullish. Target of 2,100 has a good chance.

8th October:  The index is now testing the previous high. There is a possible resistance on the long term weekly chart. If that passes, we should see target of 2,100.

Current predictions
Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom (weekly) points to 2,100

1st October:  The first chart shows a continuation pattern that could easily propel the index to its target of 2,100. But the previous high of 2000 is an obstacle. If that level is not passed, consider the double top scenario in the second chart. The weekly chart still gives a strong bullish target.
Current predictions

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom (weekly) points to 2,100

Currency: none

24th September:  The first chart shows a continuation pattern that could easily propel the index to its target of 2,100. But the previous high of 2000 is an obstacle. If that level is not passed, consider the double top scenario in the second chart. The weekly chart still gives a strong bullish target.
Current predictions

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom (weekly) points to 2,100

Currency: none

17th September:  No clear direction, other than the prevailing trend which is bullish. Worst case would be a double top forming at the current level. No sign yet of such a pattern.

11th September:  No clear direction, other than the prevailing trend which is bullish. Worst case would be a double top forming at the current level. No sign yet of such a pattern.

28th August:  The index has dropped sharply. But the plunge does not make a reversal. Still a good chance of seeing target at 2,100.
Current predictions

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom (weekly) points to 2,100

Currency: none
13th August:  Nothing much to go on. The weekly chart still looks highly bullish. The target of 2,100 is still a high probability.

6th August:  A fall to good support in the first chart. Nothing more can be said at the moment. Good support at around 1,800 in the first chart.
Current predictions

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom (weekly) points to 2,100

Currency: none
30th July:  The index has pulled back to supports in the first chart. The greater probability for the long term is the target shown in the weekly chart.

 
23rd July:  The index is on course for the next target.
 

16th July:  The index has reached our target in the daily chart. We now have a higher target on the weekly chart of 2,100

 

9th July:  The index has broken long term resistance.

 

25th June:  The index has almost reached its long term target. Resistance in the second chart and the ETF chart.

 

18th June:  The index is testing resistance in green in the first chart and yellow in the second. We still have a target and no indication of a top. So the bull must still be presumed.

 

11th June:  The index is testing resistance in green in the first chart.

 

4th June:  The index is approaching resistance in green in the first chart. Long term target on the weekly chart is as good as done. We should watch for a top in the mid 1700 region.

 

28th May:  The index is moving nicely in a well-defined short term channel, shown in the first chart.

 
 

14th May:  Resistance in the first chart. But longer term charts look bullish.

 

23rd April:  The index has turned on resistance in the first chart but breakout from long term resistance in the weekly chart is holding. The weekly chart gives a bullish indication.

 

2nd April:  The medium term channel in the first chart is well-confirmed. But the very strong long term resistance on the weekly chart is a big obstacle.

 

26th March:  The medium term channel in the first chart is well-confirmed. But the very strong long term resistance on the weekly chart is a big obstacle.

 

12th March:  Now testing very strong long term resistance on the weekly chart.

 

5th March:  Now testing very strong long term resistance on the weekly chart.

 

19th February:  Now approaching strong resistance on the long term weekly chart at around 1,470.

 
 
 
2006
 
20th November: The trend is clearly bullish and will remain so while the yellow channel in the first chart holds.
 
 
28th August: The double top scenario in the second chart is developing. But still a long way to go before the market shows direction.

21st August: Mixed signals: we have a bullish short term pattern with volume increasing last week. However, the top in the second chart is still a danger and there is strong long term resistance in yellow.

7th August: Weakness in the first chart as the index appears to be bottoming on low volume. However, the third chart shows good support. Bullish hope cannot be abandoned until the support in the third chart fails.

 
 

20th February: A close at 1,280, or lower, would be bearish. But that's a way off. Still a fair chance of a revival of the bull, which is the current trend.

Current predictions

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: 1. double bottom (daily) points to 1,850
                    2. double bottom (weekly) points to 1,750

Currency: none

13th February: Now we are not going to see anything persuasive until the index either falls below the support at 1,290 or breaks a new high at 1,430.

Current predictions

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: 1. double bottom (daily) points to 1,850
                    2. double bottom (weekly) points to 1,750

Currency: none

6th February: A possible top in the first chart would take another month to build persuasively. The second chart is still bullish.

Current predictions

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: 1. double bottom (daily) points to 1,850
                    2. double bottom (weekly) points to 1,750

Currency: none

30th January: A double top scenario in the first chart needs watching. Otherwise the trend should be presumed bullish.

Current predictions

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: 1. double bottom (daily) points to 1,850
                    2. double bottom (weekly) points to 1,750

Currency: none

23rd January: The index has hit two strong resistances on the daily chart and a strong resistance on the weekly chart. Provided that we don't see a pullback to the 1,200 region, chances are still good that we will see 1,800 this year. On the other hand, this is a market that reverses with double tops. We should be wary of the scenario in the first chart, especially if turnover falls off over the next couple of weeks.

Current predictions

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: 1. double bottom (daily) points to 1,850
                    2. double bottom (weekly) points to 1,750

Currency: none

9th January:The index has broken through all resistances. Nothing now stands in the way of our long term targets (See below).

Current predictions

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: 1. double bottom (daily) points to 1,850
                    2. double bottom (weekly) points to 1,750

Currency: none



2005

24th December: The index is now testing important resistance at 1,350. If that resistance passes, there is a good chance that the index will rally to the 1,800 level next year.

19th December: The index is now testing an important long term resistance at 1,350.  If this resistance passes on good volume, we should see a rally to the 1,800 region

12th December: The index is approaching its next big test at the 1,35 to 1,370 level. If that level passes, there would be resistance at around 1,550, but a good chance of seeing 1,750 to 1,850.

5th December: The index is approaching a big test at 1,350. If that level passes, there is a good chance of 1,800.

28th November: The index has broken out of the long term resistance on the weekly chart. There is now a fair chance that the index will rally to 1,700. Resistance on the daily chart at 1,350, or thereabouts.

21st November: The index has broken out of a long term resistance on the weekly chart, but not by a convincing margin. If the index closes higher this week, we could be more confident that the index is in continuation of the long term rising trend - despite the unimpressive volume.

14th November: The index has made a new high. There is a scenario pointing to 1,900. But I would only give that scenario credence if the next resistance, at around 1,350, were to break.

7th November: The market still suffers from lack of volume, compared to that of previous years. Thus the scenario of a rally to 1,900 seems a bit unlikely at the moment. Important test would be the resistance at 1,300 in the second chart.

31st October: The index has fallen to a very good support. Now it is a question of seeing whether a medium term top will form, or whether the index will continue in its current bull trajectory.

17th October: The index has topped after turning on long term resistance. This could be the start of a reversal lasting several months. But there is an alternative, bullish scenario in the long term weekly char

10th October: The index has met with long term resistance both on the daily and weekly charts. Look out for a top forming.

26th September: Possible top in the first chart, as the index turns on resistance. But the second chart shows a long term resistance broken. That long term resistance now becomes a support. Thus we want to see whether that support holds. It will take a week or two more to get any indication of a reversal. In the meantime, presume the bull.

19th September: The index continues to rise on low volume. It has broken two long term resistances and now has a chance at 1,350.

12th September: The index has made a new high and the fund chart has reached its target, despite the low volume for the market. Strong resistance approaching in the daily chart. But resistance broken in the weekly chart gives a chance at 1,250.

5th September: The index cancelled a little short term top, suggesting strength in the market. But long term resistance at the current level is still perilous.

29th August A possible top in the first chart and strong resistance in the second chart. If the resistance is passed, upside is 1,250, as shown in the weekly chart. Support at around 1,020.

22nd August: The index has turned on a strong resistance. Neckline is at around 1,070. A fall to below that level would likely see a fall back to 1,000.

8th August: Resistance at 1,150 and 1, 250. If volume were higher, I would be confident of the index testing the higher resistances in the first chart, at around 1,400. But volume does not yet inspire confidence.

1st August: Volume started to build last week. But it is still too low for comfort.

25th July: The market continued to rally last week. Volume picked up a little. But average turnover at  2 trillion won is half of what it should be for a sustainable rally.

20th July: Falling currency and low market turnover make the recent breakouts from long term resistance dangerous.

11th July: Low turnover suggests a double top in the making.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency: topped and heading for support at around 1,100

24th June: Both the index and the fund charts are retesting previous highs. I would be very surprised if the index broke out of the resistance at around 1,020, given the low volumes. But who knows?

20th June: The index has been rallying on volume much lower than that of the previous ascent to 1,020. A new high is less likely than a fall.

13th June: The index is rallying on low volume. Looks dangerous. Big test at previous high of 1,020. A plunge would not surprise.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double top points to 870 - cancelled

Long term: none

6th June: The market has rallied in recent weeks, but on low volume, giving little hope that the important resistance at around 1,030 will break.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double top points to 870 - cancelled

Long term: double bottom points to 1,070 (daily and weekly)

21st May: Nothing persuasive in this market.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double top points to 870

Long term: double bottom points to 1,070 (daily and weekly)

16th May: All but the second chart look bearish. There is a chance that the support in the second chart might hold the index and as low as 850.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double top points to 870

Long term: double bottom points to 1,070 (daily and weekly)

25th April: 945 is an important point. If the index stays below this resistance, we are likely to see a fall to 870, according to the top in the first chart.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double top points to 870

Long term: double bottom points to 1,070 (daily and weekly)

11th April: The index is likely to test 835.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: head and shoulders top points to 835

Long term: double bottom points to 1,070 (daily and weekly)

11th April: The market is trapped by long term resistance at 1,030 and nothing indicates that the resistance will soon be broken. The index is support at 950. If that support fails, support would be at around 830 to 850.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency: long term resistance operating

4th April: Short term danger in the first chart. Support at 950, in the second chart, is best hope for the index.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency: long term resistance operating

21st March: A short term top in the first chart and support at around 950 in the second chart.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency: long term resistance operating

14th March: Next big test is at 1,500. Volume is finally starting to pick up, giving hope that perhaps we will see a breakout from the long term resistance.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency: long term resistance operating

8th March: Strong resistance at 1,050 approaching.

21st February: The index is rallying despite low volume. Next resistance is on the weekly chart at around 1,030.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency: long term resistance operating

14th February: The index has broken out of long term resistance on both the daily and weekly charts. The fund chart is also rallying nicely. The index is still showing weak volume. Hence the chance of a big, sudden drop should not be discounted.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency: long term resistance operating

31st January: The index is struggling on long term resistance. Turnover is low, giving a poor outlook. But the fund chart has broken out of analogous resistance to that of the index, giving hope that the fund chart is a leading indicator.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency: long term resistance operating

17th January: The fund chart suggests a long term reversal. But the index lacks volume and does not inspire great confidence. Currency is still on resistance.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double bottom  points to 920 - done 17th January

Long term: none

Currency: long term resistance operating

10th January: Nothing much to go on, except that volume for the market is weak and currency has hit long term resistance.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double bottom (pink) points to 920 - confirmed

Long term: none

Currency: long term resistance operating 



2004
20th December: A possible short term top. But otherwise nothing exciting.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double bottom (pink) points to 920 - confirmed

Long term: none

Currency: bullish

13th December: Danger of a fall back to 800. Further than 800 would not surprise, due to the poor volume supporting the market.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double bottom (pink) points to 920 - confirmed

Long term: none

Currency: bullish

6th December: Not much to go on other than the bullish regional trend, which, one hopes, this market will follow. Otherwise, the market is still suffering from lacklustre volume.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double bottom (pink) points to 920 - confirmed

Long term: none

Currency: bullish

20th November: Strong currency is buoying the fund chart, which has made a nice breakout. But the index has made a short term top and could fall a bit in the short term. The market still suffers from low volume.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double bottom (pink) points to 920 - confirmed

Long term: none

Currency: bullish

15th November: Not much to go on. Volume is still not persuasive. Next important resistance is at 950.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double bottom (pink) points to 920 - confirmed

Long term: none

Currency: bullish

25th October: A close at 810 would spell the end of our bullish target of 920.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double bottom (pink) points to 920 - confirmed

Long term: none

Currency: none

18th October: Critical support is at 830. Below that, we can cancel our target of 920.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: 1. double bottom (red) points to 875 - done
                         2. double bottom (pink) points to 920 - confirmed

11th October: Volume started to build last week, with the highest day of turnover last Friday since May. That is a good sign. But it needs to continue for many more weeks before we can be confident of long term upside.

4th October: A close at 870, on stronger volume than that of the last couple of weeks, would indicate a high probability of a rally to around 940.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: 1. double bottom (red) points to 875
                         2. double bottom (pink) points to 920 - not yet confirmed

Long term: none

Currency: none

20th September: A nice double bottom in the first chart is encouraging. But volume needs to pick up substantially before we can be confident of a sustainable rally.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: 1. double bottom (red) points to 875
                         2. double bottom (pink) points to 920 - not yet confirmed

Long term: none

Currency: none

4th September: A nice double bottom in the first chart. But volume does not inspire. We need to see much more volume before getting excited about a sustainable rally.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: 1. double bottom (red) points to 875
                         2. double bottom (pink) points to 920 - not yet confirmed

Long term: none

Currency: none

30th August:  Nice bottoms in the index and fund chart. Volume is still weak for the market. Any rally would be in danger of collapse.

23rd August: Still nothing exciting to report, despite the rally of the last two weeks. Volume just isn't sufficient to make the market interesting.

9th August: No change. Still waiting to see what happens on the support at 720.

2nd August: Nothing exciting this week. The neckline support in the first chart is still unbroken. A close at 720 would be bearish.

26th July: The index is still biding its time. Nothing much to go on. The top in the first chart has not broken out and might not.  Keep an eye on the regional trend.

12th July: The top danger in the first chart is the major concern. Otherwise, not much to go on.

28th June: A little short term bottom lacks persuasive volume. See the first chart.

31st May: The fund chart gives the clearest bottoming scenario. But it could be a while before anything happens. Currency is in danger of topping.

10th May: A double top points to 720. The low volume accompanying the rallies throughout this year contributes to the rapid fall.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double top points to 717

Long term: double bottom points to 1,070 (daily and weekly) - poor volume makes the prediction weak.

Currency: none

3rd May: The index is testing support in the first chart. There is no valid top. But if the region remains bearish, this market is likely to suffer.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom points to 1,070 (daily and weekly) - poor volume makes the prediction weak.

Currency: none

26th April: The index keeps rising, but volume is weak. This is not a good basis for a bull market. It could all collapse rather suddenly. On the other hand, there is no sign of a top. Keep an eye on the fund chart. If it breaks out from a long term bottom, that would be a bullish signal, despite the lack of volume.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom points to 1,070 (daily and weekly) - poor volume makes the prediction weak.

Currency: none

19th April: Medium term top danger until long term resistance breaks. Volume is not encouraging.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom points to 1,070 (daily and weekly) - poor volume makes the prediction weak.

12th April: The index has made a new 2 year high close. But volume is still not impressive. Resistance at around 940.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom points to 1,070 (daily and weekly) - poor volume makes the prediction weak

Currency: none

5th April: We have a pattern pointing to 1,070. But the volume attending the pattern is weak. On the other hand, there is a turn on the long term daily chart and a short term top scenario in the first chart below. The fund chart also suggests weakness. A failure of the long term bottom would therefore not surprise. Important supports are at 835 and 820.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom points to 1,070 (daily and weekly) - poor volume makes the prediction weak

Currency: none

15th March: The index pulled back to the neckline of our long term bottom. Still a long way to fall before the target of 1,070 is cancelled. See the first chart.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom points to 1,070 (daily and weekly)

8th March: Clear resistance on the medium term chart and on the fund chart.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom points to 1,070 (daily and weekly)

1st March: Resistance at around 890 on the long term daily chart is approaching. Otherwise nothing exciting - volume continues to be unimpressive.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term: reverse head and shoulders points to 1,000

23rd February: No substantial change. Average volume couldn't be flatter - not a good sign for a bull market.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term: reverse head and shoulders points to 1,000

16th February: Nothing exciting. The market inched up last week. But not on impressive volume. A possible breakout from a long term resistance.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term: reverse head and shoulders points to 1,000

Currency: could be a target of 1,070- on hold

9th February: We have a breakout from a long term pattern in the first chart. But we have a strong long term resistance in the second chart. We'll have to wait and see which one wins.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term: reverse head and shoulders points to 1,000

26th January: Nothing exciting to report. The pattern in the first chart is the main indicator. But there are strong resistances until 950.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term: reverse head and shoulders points to 1,000

Currency: could be a target of 1,070- on hold.

19th January: Volume could be better. But it's still probably enough to effect target of 1,000. Breakout is clear.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term: reverse head and shoulders points to 1,000

Currency: could be a target of 1,070- on hold.

12th January: Volume is not persuasive, but the index will most probably follow the regional trend and break the 1,000 level over the next few months. 950 is a big resistance on the weekly chart.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term: reverse head and shoulders points to 1,000

Currency: could be a target of 1,070- on hold



2003

29th December: Nothing exciting. Perhaps in the new year we will see a break above the resistance at around 840.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term: none

Currency: could be a target of 1,070- on hold.

1st November: The short term top is cancelled. But we still have a big resistance to pass at around 820.

Current Prediction

Short term: double top pointing to 740 - cancelled

Medium term:  none

Long term: none

Currency: could be a target of 1,070- on hold. See below.

24th November: A little top points down to around 750, perhaps lower.

Current Prediction

Short term: double top pointing to 740

Medium term:  none

Long term: none

Currency: could be a target of 1,070- on hold. See below.

17th November: The index needs to break 820 on stronger volume before we can be excited about a continuation of the current rally.

10th November: Three good days of volume last week could be the start of something big. We need to see daily turnover of 4.5 to 5 billion won per day in order to get excited.

3rd November: The index is testing a resistance that forms the neckline of a reverse head and shoulders. The pattern isn't a good one and the volume accompanying the pattern is still weak. However, breakout from the resistance should be taken as a bullish sign.

27th October: The market dropped with the region. The best we can hope is that the index moves in a range for a few months while the market gathers volume.

20th October: A close above 800 on strong volume would likely see the market rally to 1,000, or thereabouts.

13th October: The market is still suffering from a lack of volume. The great gains of early last year were precipitated by a strong build up of volume at the end of 2001. We are not seeing such a build up now. Thus, while we can expect the market to rally with the region, a turbo rally such as that of last year is unlikely.

6th October: The recent falls of the index could be the completion of a reversal pattern. A breakout above 730 next month on strong volume would be the signal.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term: none

Currency: could be a target of 1,070. See below.

22nd September: The index fell below the neckline of our bottom, cancelling the tentative prediction of 950.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term: none

Currency: could be a target of 1,070. See below.

15th September: No persuasive change to the market environment: unimpressive volume. Until we see the volume pick up dramatically, progress is likely to be slow. It could nonetheless continue in its slow climb. But we will not get any clear indication of movement.

8th September: .No great change from last week. Resistance this week at 780.

1st September: Nothing persuasive to guide us at the moment. The index is making a few patterns. But the volume and the proportionality of the patterns detracts from their reliability. The most we can go on is supports and resistances. Next resistances are at 830 and 900.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  reverse head and shoulders points to 750 - done

18th August: .The index is dawdling to target of 750 and testing the neckline of the bottom (second chart). Low volume reduces the chances for any exciting rally in the short term.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  reverse head and shoulders points to 750

11th August: The index has encountered resistance at around 730 and a top is forming in the short term. The target of 750 is now not so reliable.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  reverse head and shoulders points to 750- now questionable

4th August: The index has almost managed to scrape target of 750. But volume is still not sufficient to be confident about the next scenario.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  reverse head and shoulders points to 750

28th July: The index is meandering. Target of 750 is less likely due to hesitation. The fund chart is showing resistance at the current level. No clear indication at the moment.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  reverse head and shoulders points to 750

28th July: The index is meandering. Target of 750 is less likely due to hesitation. The fund chart is showing resistance at the current level. No clear indication at the moment.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  reverse head and shoulders points to 750

21st July: Volume is still uninspiring. The index could easily drift up to 750. But at that point there is strong resistance and anything could happen.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  reverse head and shoulders points to 750

5th July: This market still appears to be left behind those of Japan and South Asia. Volume is lacklustre and I would not expect much excitement until we see it pick up.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  reverse head and shoulders points to 750

30th June: Still a fairly good chance of 750 in the next week or two. Longer than that, chances will diminish.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  reverse head and shoulders points to 750

16th June: Volume picked up last week, giving greater cause for hope that the breakout from a little bottom will send the index to target of around 740, or perhaps a little higher.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  reverse head and shoulders points to 740 - not yet confirmed, but volume improving

9th June: Volume has not yet started to build up, as it has in other Asian markets. Accordingly, we cannot be confident about the bottom in the first chart. The fund chart (which does not have volume and usually works without it) looks more bullish.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  reverse head and shoulders points to 740 - not yet confirmed

Long term: none

Currency: none

2nd June: Waiting for a breakout from our medium term scenario. Volume could be better. However, a close at around 645 on strong volume would give a target of 740.

26th May: The index is lagging behind much of the rest of the region. We have a bottoming scenario, but volume is not yet persuasive.

19th May: A long term resistance broke last week. Otherwise, nothing much exciting. 640 is the neckline for our next reversal pattern. If that breaks convincingly on good volume, we shall have cause for hope

12th May: A close at around 640 and strong volume for a few days would give the index a good chance of reaching 730.

28th April: The index still has hope of bottoming provided it stays above 550, which is a good support on the short term and the long term weekly charts.

18th April: A few hopeful scenarios and good recent volume. But nothing clear yet. A good bottom would take a few more weeks, at least, to form. In the meantime, look to volume. If it keeps increasing, we can keep hoping.

29th March: Only scenarios to go on. A retesting of the recent low is quite foreseeable.

24th March: There is a chance that the index is bottoming. But it is still too early to tell.

17th March: Support at the current level is strong. If it fails, 490 and 370 are the next supports. A bottom at the current level would see the index trading in a narrow range until the end of this year (say 500 - 600).

Current Prediction

Short term: head and shoulders top points to 531 (log), 515 (arithmetic) - done

Medium term:  none

Long term: none

Currency: none

10th March: The index made further progress towards target of 530. A long term rising support (third chart) has broken. There are supports between 400 and 520 in the charts below.

Current Prediction

Short term: head and shoulders top points to 531 (log), 515 (arithmetic)

Medium term:  none

Long term: none

Currency: none

3rd March: The picture is ambiguous for this market (as is the case for the rest of the region). There is a top pointing down to 530. But there is good support at the current level and not far down.

Current Prediction

Short term: head and shoulders top points to 531 (log), 515 (arithmetic)

24th  February: A top points to 531, but there is good long term support at around 545. The top could thus be interrupted.

Current Prediction

Short term: head and shoulders top points to 531 (log), 515 (arithmetic)

10th  February: The index is likely to test long term support at 540.

Current Prediction

Short term:
1. rising wedge pointing to previous low at around 580 - done
2. head and shoulders top points to 531 (log), 515 (arithmetic)

Medium term:  none

Long term: none

Currency:
1. short term head and shoulders top points to 1,194
2. medium term rising wedge points to 1,265

3rd February: The short term target of 530 is confirmed, but a long term support at 540 could intervene.

Current Prediction

Short term:
1. rising wedge pointing to previous low at around 580
2. head and shoulders top points to 531 (log), 515 (arithmetic)

Medium term:  none

Long term: none

Currency: none

27th January: Good long term support at the current level. If this fails, next support would be at around 550. A bearish scenario in the short to medium term would be activated if the index closes a few points below last Friday's close.

Current Prediction

Short term:
1. rising wedge pointing to previous low at around 580 - 620 (long term support)
2. head and shoulders top points to 5.25 - not yet confirmed

Medium term:  none

Long term: none

13th January: Nothing more than a few supports and resistances to go on. There are good resistances from 630 to 550. So we have nothing clear to expect.

Current Prediction

Short term: rising wedge pointing to previous low at around 580 - 620 (long term support)

Medium term:  none

Long term: none

Currency: none 



2002

23rd December: The short term is still bearish. Beyond that is just a guess. My feeling is that index needs to spend at least several months bottoming.

Current Prediction

Short term: rising wedge pointing to previous low at around 580 - 620 (long term support)

Medium term:  none

Long term: none

Currency: none

16th December: The short term is likely to be bearish as the index has broken out of a rising wedge. A fall to at least 640 is likely.

Current Prediction

Short term: rising wedge pointing to previous low at around 580 - 620 (long term support)

9th December: The index has turned at resistance at around 737. Decreasing volume during the rally suggests a likely fall. A larger bottoming pattern could be forming over the next six to eight weeks. But the long term scenario would suggest that a bottom should take until September 2003, at least.

2nd December: We have a little short to medium term bottom forming. But volume is not yet persuasive.

18th November: A possible short term top on the horizon. But otherwise, no discernible pattern. In the absence of a bottom, the trend is still down.

11th November: Nothing to add this week. Quite likely that the index moves in a range for the next few months.

2nd November: Short term bear on the horizon. Otherwise, the scenario in the chart below suggests a year of bottoming.

28th October: Nothing to report. The index is still testing support, and with luck, will soon start making a bottom.

19th October: An impressive rally last week. But no indication of a bottom yet. The trend may still be presumed to be down

12th October: The index is looking for support. Best support is still far away at around 530.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term: none

Currency: double top points to 1,252-done

7th October: There are no targets for the index but the bear trend is likely to see the index keep falling until there is a reversal. Next support is around 540. I would not be surprised if we see this level in the next couple of months, unless a reversal intervenes.

Current Prediction

Short term: double top points to 640 - done

Medium term:  none

Long term: none

Currency: double top points to 1,252

30th September: A short term top points to 640. But there is no support at that level. 600 is the next support and therefore likely to be tested.

Current Prediction

Short term: double top points to 640

Medium term:  none

Long term: none

Currency: double top points to 1,252

23rd September: Good support on the daily chart, and no indication of further falls for the index. Currency, however, is likely to fall.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term: none

Currency: double top points to 1,252

16th September: Nothing much exciting. So long as the index stays above 660, there is a chance that the index is still bottoming at the current level.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term: none

Currency: symmetrical triangle points to 1,228 - not yet confirm

9th September: The important support is in the first chart, at around 670. If that support fails, we should consider long term scenarios with a return to the region of 500.

2nd September: No significant change. But the index and the fund chart are both holding up well, giving cause for hope that the index could make a large bottoming pattern at the current level.

26th August: Nothing solid to go on. But there is cause for hope.

19th August: The index has a chance of rallying if it can close at 740, or better, on strong volume

12th August: The index is testing a very good long term support at the current level. If the support breaks, we could see the index fall to the 550 region, and another year of bottoming.

Current Prediction

Short term:

Medium term:  none

Long term: none

Currency: reverse head and shoulders pointing to 1,160 - done

22nd July: Still a bullish hope. But a fall below 700 would diminish the chances of the bullish scenario. Otherwise, there is nothing to go on. No tops, no bottoms. The presumption is therefore still bullish.

Current Prediction

Short term:

Medium term:  none

Long term: none

Currency: reverse head and shoulders pointing to 1,160

15th July: Nothing much to go on. The index is just floating around. But the long term sceario (4th chart) still has a chance.

Current Prediction

Short term:

Medium term:  none

Long term: none

Currency: reverse head and shoulders pointing to 1,160

8th July: A hopeful scenario is building. But it could take weeks, or months to develop. Until then, we shall have to live in limbo. Meanwhile, currency is still bullish.

Current Prediction

Short term:

Medium term:  none

Long term: none

Currency: reverse head and shoulders pointing to 1,160

1st July: The index has now fallen far enough to make a nice, symmetrical, long term reversal pattern with the hope of 1,400. But if it falls much further, that hope will diminish. However, there is no topping pattern to suggest that the recent bull trend has finished. In the absence of such a pattern, we should assume that the trend is still bullish. Look out for a short term bottom.

Current Prediction

Short term:

Medium term:  none

Long term: none

Currency: reverse head and shoulders pointing to 1,160
 

24th June: The index is now approaching important support at around 750 (or slightly lower). If we see a bottom at this level, there is a chance that the index could complete a long term reversal pattern pointing to around 1,400. The index is currently contained within a falling wedge (green pattern on the first chart). This is usually a bullish pattern; meaning that we expect the index to breakout upside. Thus there is good hope for the index. But we could be waiting until August for some action.

Current Prediction

Short term:

Medium term:  none

Long term: none

Currency: reverse head and shoulders pointing to 1,140

10th June: The index is still in a short term bear trend which could see a fall to as low as 750. At that point, I am hopeful that we should see a recovery and a new sustained rally.

Current Prediction

Short term:

Medium term:  none

Long term: none

Currency: reverse head and shoulders pointing to 1,140

3rd June: The index still has a bit of room to fall before it touches a good support. A rally after falling to 750 would improve long term prospects.

27th May: No change. We may still see a fall to as low as 750 while still holding bullish prospects for the index in the medium to long term.

Current Prediction

Short term:

Medium term:  none

Long term: none

Currency: reverse head and shoulders pointing to 1,140

13th May: The daily chart points to around 770. The fund, on the other hand, has not topped, giving hope that the market is not starting a long term reversal; ie, that the bull trend will continue.

Current Prediction

Short term: weekly double top points to 830 - done, daily double top points to 775.

Medium term:  none

Long term: none

Currency: triple bottom points to 1,280

6th may: The only prediction is that of the weekly chart which points to 830. A fall below 840, however, would give a target of 770 on the daily chart.

Current Prediction

Short term: weekly double top points to 830, daily double top points to 765 (not confirmed).

28th April: The index is in danger of topping in the short term. The daily chart is still safe, but the weekly chart has an analogous top to that of the daily chart and the weekly top has already broken. The weekly top often leads the daily chart. If that were to happen, we would have a target of 760.

21st April: The index is rallying without a definite target. Volume is still good. No sign of a top. No clear resistances, but plenty of guesses. Currency could be bottoming.

8th April: It's just a guessing game now with this market. There are resistances at 960 and 1,000. But there is no indication of a reversal. We frequently see double tops in this market. No such phenomenon yet. Until we get a clear indication of reversal, the presumption is bullish.

31st  March:  Volume is still strong. Otherwise there is nothing much to go on. All of our targets have been met, but the trend is still bullish until a reversal occurs. There's a chance of a short term reversal. But that has no major significance. The channel support at 830 is probably the best support to go on for the short term. Resistance is at around 1,000.

9th March: Now the index has reached all of its targets. The question is whether the bull trend will continue or whether we will see a period of cooling off. We'll have to wait and see.

No sign yet of topping. Volume is still strong. If the index is about to reverse for a few weeks, we should either see a clear top or volume falling off. Neither of these phenomena has yet appeared.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term: none

Currency: none

2nd March: Bullish is still the prevailing trend. Target of 820 was reached last week. But in the absence of a reversal pattern we presume the trend, in this case: up.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term: triple bottom (sloping up neckline) points to 820 - done 27th February

25th  February: Not much to go on this week. The index is close to the target of 820. But with the rest of the region in decline, we could see the index dither. Support at 760 is the next support.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term: triple bottom (sloping up neckline) points to 820

Currency: none

18th  February: The index is now approaching target of 820. There are now two or three plausible scenarios. First, we could see a substantial correction to as low as 640 for one or two months, followed by a further rally to the 1,000 region. Secondly, we could see the index continue to the region of 950 to 1,000. Thirdly, we could see a top ending the current bear trend. Current average volume is sufficient to relegate the third scenario to low probability. As for the other two scenarios, we shall have to wait and see. There is no evidence yet for either.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term: triple bottom (sloping up neckline) points to 820

Currency: none

11th  February: The index has cooled off a little over the last week. But prospects still look encouraging. 820 is still a valid target. The weekly chart then has resistance at around 870.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term: triple bottom (sloping up neckline) points to 820

Currency: none

2nd February: Still a good chance of seeing 820. After that is a matter of guessing.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term: triple bottom (sloping up neckline) points to 820

Currency: none

28th January: The index is still bullish. The target of 820 is still a good chance.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term: 1. triple bottom (sloping down neckline) points to 770 (done)
                    2. triple bottom (sloping up neckline) points to 820

Currency: none

6th January: The recent pullback to 640 and turn confirms the triple bottom. We now have a text-book example of a long term reversal. The targets of 770, and then 820, are a high probability. After that, it is a matter of looking at volume, resistances and little topping patterns. It is difficult to make a long term outlook for the market. But there will be significant resistance at the 1,000 level, which I expect to occur, but I have no idea when.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term: 1. triple bottom (sloping down neckline) points to 770
                    2. triple bottom (sloping up neckline) points to 820

Currency: none 


2001

24th December: The index still looks very good. Note the weekly chart. It has made a good pullback to the neckline of the triple bottom. Thus a turn up this week would confirm the pattern. The weekly chart is often a leading indicator. This is one of the more encouraging patterns in Asia.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term: triple bottom points to 790

Currency: none

10th December: The market has made a clear reversal. All indicators confirm the current bull trend. This is the best reversal in the region and gives hope that it is leading the rest of the region.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term: triple bottom points to 790
                    head and shoulders top points to 420. Cancelled.

24th November: The index has rallied well on good volume. But a breakout from the long term bottom is still not persuasive.

19th November: The index could be making a triple bottom. Volume is persuasive. Breakout would occur if the index closed above 625 on strong volume. But there is strong resistance at 630 on the weekly chart. The index has rallied approximately 30% since its recent low of 460. I would want to see a pullback and consolidation above the triple bottom neckline to be confident of a bottom. But at least we can say that the chances of a fall to 420 are now much less than they were a week ago.

12th November: The index has rallied consistently over the past two or three weeks on good volume. But volume is still not sufficient to suggest a bottom. The fund, on the other hand, is sitting close to good long term support and could be making a bottoming pattern.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  double top points to 384 (log) and 353 (arithmetic)-cancelled

Long term: head and shoulders top points to 420. Valid again.

Currency: none

22nd October: No change to the technical picture.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  double top points to 384 (log) and 353 (arithmetic)

Long term: head and shoulders top points to 420. Valid again.

Currency: none

1st October: 420 is still highly likely, despite the current support. Long term weekly support at 350 would be a very strong support for a bottom.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  double top points to 384 (log) and 353 (arithmetic)

Long term: head and shoulders top points to 420. Valid again.

Currency: none

17th September: The index has broken a double top pointing to 380 on a log scale and 350 on an arithmetic scale. There is no good long term support at around 380. Therefore, we are more likely to see a fall to the region of 350, at which point there is very good long term support.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  double top points to 384(log) and 353 (arithmetic)

Long term: head and shoulders top points to 420. Valid again.

Currency: none

10th September: Still trapped in limbo. Nothing significant will happen until the index falls below support at around 500 or breaks above 640 on good volume. The greater probability is a fall below 500.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term: head and shoulders top points to 420. Valid again.

Currency: none

27th August: The index has hit some medium and long term resistance. A short term prediction has failed. We could see some action this week.

20th August: A valid short term pattern points to around 630. But only a close above the neckline of the long term top will erase the danger of 420.

Current Prediction

Short term: reverse head and shoulders points to 630.

Medium term:  none

Long term: head and shoulders top points to 420. Valid again.

Currency: none

13th August: Nothing very exciting to report. The index has turned on a short to medium term channel resistance. We are still waiting for the big test at 500.

6th August: The index rebounded strongly last week. But the rebound gives no encouragement of a reversal of the bearish trend. We need to see the index close above 640, on two or three weeks of good volume, before we can get hopeful of a bottom. On the other hand, a fall below 500 will give a high probability of a fall to around 420.

30th July: Good supports approaching at around 500. If they break, we should expect 420.

23rd July: The index is heading back to the support at around 500.

Current Prediction

Short term: head and shoulders top pointing to 520

Medium term:  none

Long term: head and shoulders top points to 420. Valid again.

Currency: none

16th July:  A short term top points to 520. Good long term support at 520. If it breaks, 500 is likely to be retested.

Current Prediction

Short term: head and shoulders top pointing to 520

9th July: Nothing exciting this week. The index is still caught in the range shown in the first chart. This is a big range: 630 to around 500. Until the index moves out of this range, there will be no excitement.

Current Prediction

Short term: head and shoulders top pointing to 520 - confirms if index closes below 560.

Medium term:  none

Long term: head and shoulders top points to 420. Valid again.

23rd June: Not much change in this market. 590 is the next short term support.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  a short term cascading reverse head and shoulders points to 660 and 710 respectively. But the prediction is unreliable due to the strong resistance at 640.

Long term: head and shoulders top points to 420. Valid again.

18th June:  A short term pattern is bullish. But I do not trust it. The medium and long term charts are more persuasive. The greater probability is a fall to 420 at least. A long term scenario would see the index fall to 350 and stay around that level for a year. Only a rally above 650, on 4 or 5 trillion won daily turnover for at least a week, would inspire bullish confidence.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  a short term cascading reverse head and shoulders points to 660 and 710 respectively. But the prediction is unreliable due to the strong resistance at 640.

Long term: head and shoulders top points to 420. Valid again.

Currency:  a rising wedge points to 1,325 - not yet confirmed

4th June: The long term top that was cancelled last week is now valid again. But we have redrawn the neckline to give a minimum target of 420. We would need a close at 640, or higher, on strong volume, to cancel the top.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  a short term reverse head and shoulders points to 670. But the prediction is unreliable due to the strong resistance at 640.

Long term: head and shoulders top points to 420. Valid again.

Currency:  none

28th May: The index broke above the neckline of the long term top. The prediction of 380 is cancelled. A double bottom could be forming. But it would be better to wait for a close at 640 on volume of 4 trillion won, in order to pronounce a reversal.

Current Prediction

Short term: a short term reverse head and shoulders points to 670. But the prediction is unreliable due to the strong resistance at 640.

Medium term: none

Long term: head and shoulders top points to 380. Cancelled.

Currency:  head and shoulders top pointing to 1,460. Cancelled.

21st May: The index is getting close to the neckline of the long term bearish top. A little more rallying and the top will be cancelled. But the medium term double top still suffers from low volume and the currency is still subject to a bearish target. Still to early to dismiss the bear.

Current Prediction

Short term: a short term reverse head and shoulders points to 670. But the prediction is unreliable due to the strong resistance at 640.

Medium term: none

Long term: head and shoulders top points to 380. Cancelled only if the index rallies above 620.

Currency:  1,460 valid  provided currency remains below 1,300

14th May: No great change from last week. But I have added the observation that recent volume is still much less than that of December last year and January this year, making a double bottom (first chart) unlikely. Thus the greater probability is still a fall to 380, if not lower.

Current Prediction

Short term: a short term reverse head and shoulders points to 670. But the prediction is unreliable due to the strong resistance at 640.

Medium term: none

Long term: head and shoulders top points to 380. Cancelled only if the index rallies above 640.

Currency:  1,460 valid  provided currency remains below 1,300

7th May: Again, more hopeful signs. But the long term top with target o 360 is not cancelled until the index breaks 640.

Current Prediction

Short term: a short term reverse head and shoulders points to 670. But the prediction is unreliable due to the strong resistance at 640.

Medium term: none

Long term: head and shoulders top points to 380. Cancelled only if the index rallies above 640.

Currency:  1,460 valid  provided currency remains below 1,300

30th April: Still no strong indication of an interruption to the target of 380.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: head and shoulders top points to 380. Cancelled only if the index rallies above 640.

Currency:  1,460 valid  provided currency remains below 1,300

23rd April: Again we are facing the prospect of a reversal. But the greater probability is that the index is still subject to a bearish top. A close above 620 would cancel the threat. But we might as well wait until 640, at which point a double bottom would break. The downside is that a little medium term top is forming, confirming the bearish trend.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: head and shoulders top points to 380. Cancelled only if the index rallies above 640.

Currency:  1,460 valid  provided currency remains below 1,300

9th April: The fund chart shows a confirmed long term top, adding further evidence to the likely fall of the index in coming months. 380 is confirmed. But 350 is the long term support.

Current Prediction

Short term: head and shoulders top points to 475.

Medium term: none

Long term: head and shoulders top points to 380. Cancelled only if the index rallies above 640.

Currency:  1,460 is now a likely target

2nd April: The index has plenty of time to reach its target of 380. A short term prediction points to 470. But there is good support at 490.

Current Prediction

Short term: head and shoulders top points to 475.

Medium term: none

Long term: head and shoulders top points to 380. Cancelled only if the index rallies above 640.

Currency:  1,460 is now a likely target

19th March: My guess is that the index will not reverse before hitting long term support at around 350. If that support fails, there is a high probability that the index will go to 220. Only a rally above 640 would change my opinion.

Current Prediction

Short term: head and shoulders top points to 475.

Medium term: none

Long term: head and shoulders top points to 380. Cancelled only if the index rallies above 640.

Currency:  1,460 is now a likely target

12th March: A short term top points to 520. It would be cancelled if the index closes at 580. Unless we have a close above 630, the greater probability is a fall to 380, or the next long term support below that level at around 350.

Current Prediction

Short term: a double top points to 520.

Medium term: none

Long term: head and shoulders top points to 380. Cancelled only if the index rallies above 640.

Currency:  1,330 is now a likely target

5th March: There is still a chance that the index could be reversing at the current level. But evidence in support of that scenario is failing. The greater probability is that the index is heading to 380.

Current Prediction

Short term: a double top points to 520.

Medium term: none

Long term: head and shoulders top points to 380. Cancelled only if the index rallies above 640.

Currency:  1,330 is now a likely target

26th February: The index is still bearish, with a possible double top in the short term taking it to 520.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: a triangle points to 650, now doubtful.

Long term: head and shoulders top points to 380. Cancelled only if the index rallies above 640.

Currency: reversal has failed. 1,330 could occur.

19th February: The index is not giving much sign of direction. The medium term triangle is running out of steam and is in danger of turning into a top. The fund chart, on the other hand, is looking more bullish and could be about to break out of a second reversal pattern. Currency has made another short term reversal pattern. Target for the won is 1,210.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: a triangle points to 650.

Long term: head and shoulders top points to 380. Cancelled only if the index rallies above 640.

Currency: has made a short term bottom and could rally to 1,210.

12th February: The index is not behaving decisively. Bullish short and medium term patterns are not looking hopeful. The greater probability is that the index is heading to 380, unless we see a break above 650 on strong volume.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: a triangle points to 650. A larger reverse head and shoulders points to 710. Both patterns are dubious.

Long term: head and shoulders top points to 380. Cancelled only if the index rallies above 640.

Currency: has made a short term bottom and could rally to 1,230.

5th February: The index is sitting on a good short term support. There is still a chance that it will hit 710, as per prediction. But the target of 380 is not yet cancelled.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: a triangle points to 650. A larger reverse head and shoulders points to 710.

Long term: head and shoulders top points to 380. Cancelled only if the index rallies above 640.

Currency: has made a short term bottom and could rally to 1,230

29th January: A sharp fall last week could indicate one of two things: first, it could merely be a pullback to the medium term head and shoulders pattern that points to 710. Otherwise, it could be a turn on long term resistance confirming the long term target of 380. This target will only be cancelled if the index closes above 640. The fund chart has already cancelled its analogous long term top. With luck the index will follow. Volume is still encouraging.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: a triangle points to 650. A larger reverse head and shoulders points to 710.

Long term: head and shoulders top points to 380. Cancelled only if the index rallies above 640.

Currency: none

22nd January: Encouraging signs: a triangle pointing to 650 with good volume after breakout and a new pattern pointing to 710. But the top pointing to 380 is not cancelled until the index breaks resistance at around 650.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: a triangle points to 650. A larger reverse head and shoulders points to 710.

Long term: head and shoulders top points to 380. Cancelled only if the index rallies above 650.

Currency: none

8th January: We have a very nice medium term triangle pointing to 650. Volume on breakout was good. But we still have a long term pattern pointing to 380. The latter will only be cancelled if the index breaks 610. The signs are encouraging. Let's see if they hold.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: a triangle points to 650.

Long term: head and shoulders top points to 380. Cancelled only if the index rallies above 610.

Currency: none 


2000

18th December: Nothing very exciting. The index has been trapped in a range for a couple of months. We need to see a fall below 490 or a rally above 570 on strong volume before the medium term trend is revealed. But the greater probability is still a fall to 380.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: head and shoulders top points to 380. Cancelled only if the index rallies above 610.

Currency: none

11th December: Another week of boredom for the index. Currency rebounded after hitting support at 1,220. But there is no sign of bottoming for the currency.

27th November: 380 is still the greater probability. A short term pattern points back to 490. A fall below 490 will break a support, further evidencing the expected fall to 380. Currency took a tumble last week, exceeding our target of 1,170. 1,220 is now the next support.

Current Prediction

Short term: a little top points to 490.

Medium term: none

Long term: head and shoulders top points to 380. Cancelled only if the index rallies above 610.

Currency: none

20th November: A week of moving sideways. All previous comments hold: too little volume in the index to get bullish; bearish pattern pointing to 380 still valid.

Current Prediction

Short term: a little double bottom lacks volume. It points to 620. But the index is unlikely to rally above 610 without a significant increase in volume.

Medium term: none

Long term: head and shoulders top points to 380. Cancelled only if the index rallies above 610.

Currency: nothing reliable

13th November: The index has made a little double bottom and some resistances have. But volume is not persuasive. There is a small chance that the index will rally further. But the real test will be a breakout from 610 on strong volume.

Current Prediction

Short term: a little double bottom lacks volume. It points to 620. But the index is unlikely to rally above 610 without a significant increase in volume.

Medium term: none

Long term: head and shoulders top points to 380. Cancelled only if the index rallies above 610.

Currency: nothing reliable

6th November: The index is making a short term double bottom. But there is not enough volume to persuade that the index is about to reverse. On the long term daily chart, the index is merely pulling back, again, to the neckline of the head and shoulders top. 380 is still the greater probability, unless something dramatic happens, such as a rally, on strong volume, above 610.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: head and shoulders top points to 380. Cancelled only if the index rallies above 610.

Currency: nothing reliable

30th  October: No change from last week. We have a valid target of 380 and a collection of good supports. 610 is the level above which the target of 380 would be cancelled.

23rd October: A possible short term bottom could interrupt the index's fall. If the bottom fails to materialize, we can expect 380.

16th October: The long term target of 380 is now confirmed.

A second pullback to the neckline at 600 may occur. But the bearish target would not be cancelled unless the index broke 700. (600 to 700 would therefore be the danger zone,  unless a nice reversal pattern developed in that region.)
However, we also have a short term target of 480, which is likely to occur this week.

Current Prediction

Short term: double top points to 480

Medium term: none

Long term: head and shoulders top points to 380. Cancelled only if the index rallies above 630.

Currency: nothing reliable

9th October: The index spent another week consolidating below the neckline of the long term head and shoulders top. There is a chance that the target of 380 will be cancelled, if the index rallies above the neckline. But last week saw low volume. Thus the chance of a rally above the neckline is less likely than continued falls.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: head and shoulders top points to 380. Cancelled only if the index rallies above 630.

Currency: nothing reliable

2nd October: The index pulled back to the neckline of the long term head and shoulders top last week. The index needs to rally a long way - around 740 - before the danger of the top will be passed. Downside of 380 is still a high probability over the next several months.

25th September: Good support at last Friday's close gives the only hope for a bottom at the current level. If the index fails to make a good bottoming pattern at the current level, we can expect a fall to around 380.

18th September: The index broke out of a top pointing to 380, at least. There is a little chance that the index will rebound, due to a wedge formation (green, on the chart below). But given the weakness in Hongkong and other Asian markets, the chances are high that the index will move to this new bearish target, or lower. If the index closes below 600 this Friday, the next good long term support will be at around 340, depending on the duration of the fall.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: head and shoulders top points to 380. Cancelled only if the index rallies above 630.

Currency: nothing reliable

11th September: The index has almost reached target of 640. But there is no good support at this level. The long term support at 600 on the weekly chart is the more likely support.

4th September: The index is still subject to a bearish pattern. But the fund has made a little bullish pattern, giving hope for an interruption.

Current Prediction

Short term: double top points to somewhere between 625 and 640. Good chance.

14th August: Target of 640 is still valid. It will not be cancelled until the index breaks above 750 on good volume.

Current Prediction

Short term: double top points to somewhere between 625 and 640. Good chance.

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency: nothing reliable

7th August: The index is still subject to a short term top pointing to around 640. At that point, there are good supports.

Current Prediction

Short term: double top points to somewhere between 625 and 640. Good chance.

31st July: The index has made a double top pointing to 640, at least. Some support along the way. But the top has a good chance of working.

Current Prediction

Short term: double top points to somewhere between 625 and 640. Good chance.

24th July: The index is in a short term bearish trend. But, as I mentioned last week, there's no cause for alarm. The index could be making a nice shoulder, symmetrical to that which it made in February and March this year. Such a correction is a necessary precondition for a good medium term reversal pattern, which would give us confidence in a sustained bull rally. In order to confirm that reversal, we need to see a rally to 830 on strong volume, followed by a breakout.

The alternative is that the index fails the support at 730. If that happens, we could see a fall to around 600, the long term weekly support.

17th July: Good volume accompanying in recent weeks improves the chances for a bottom at the current level, and the start of a bull trend. This could happen with a breakout at 870, or we could see the index correct to as low as 720 before recovering on good volume.

Current Prediction

Short term: double bottom points to 910, but time has almost run out for this target.

10th July: There is a good chance that the index is reversing at the current level. But we could see a plunge to as low as 730 before that happens. A break above 860 on strong volume will give a target of 1,070.


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