History of the Philippines Composite Index
2009

8th June: The index is heading up a good support, show in orange in the first chart. Resistance is at around 2,800.

1st June:  The index has reached target of 2,400 and broken a resistance.

Current target

Short term: none

Medium term: double bottom points to 2,400 - done

20th April:  A small bottom in the first chart gives a good chance of a rally to 2,400. But on the long term chart, resistance (in pink) needs to break before the index is out of the long term bearish trend.

Current target

Short term: none

Medium term: double bottom points to 2,400

13th April:  A small bottom in the first chart gives a good chance of a rally to 2,400. But on the long term chart, resistance (in pink) needs to break before the index is out of the long term bearish trend.

Current target

Short term: none

Medium term: double bottom points to 2,400

23rd March: The index broke out of a small triangle. Target would suggest a new low. Let's see whether the global bullish trend cancels the triangle, as I suspect.

16th March: The index has been meandering for the past few weeks. Nothing exciting to report. Perhaps a little symmetrical triangle in the first chart.

Current target

Short term: symmetrical triangle points to 1,500 -cancelled

Medium term: none

9th March: The index has been meandering for the past few weeks. Nothing exciting to report. Perhaps a little symmetrical triangle in the first chart.

23rd February: The index has been meandering for the past few weeks. Nothing exciting to report.

2nd February: There is good support on the long term chart now and at 1,500. No good sign of bottoming yet.

Current target

Short term: symmetrical triangle points to 1,500

Medium term: none

10th January 2009: Low volume in the market does not inspire hope for a bottom at the current level.



2008
22nd December: The market is testing the support in green in the first chart. It is not a strong support. If it fails, next support would be around 1,300. Bottoming would take most of next year.

23rd November: The market is testing the support in green in the first chart. It is not a strong support. If it fails, next support would be around 1,300.

3rd November: Targets now done. Let's wait for a bottom.

Current target

Medium term:
1. double top (daily) points to 2,150 - done (log), 1,900 (arithmetic) - done
2. double top (weekly) points to 2,200 - done  (log), 1,950 (arithmetic)- done

27th October: The index is approaching arithmetic target.

Current target

Medium term:
1. double top (daily) points to 2,150 - done (log), 1,900 (arithmetic)
2. double top (weekly) points to 2,200 - done  (log), 1,950 (arithmetic)

20th October: The index has reached log target.

Current target

Medium term:
1. double top (daily) points to 2,150 - done (log), 1,900 (arithmetic)
2. double top (weekly) points to 2,200 - done  (log), 1,950 (arithmetic)

10th October: The index held up nicely over the last couple of weeks. But outstanding targets are still likely.

Current target

Medium term:
1. double top (daily) points to 2,150 (log), 1,900 (arithmetic) - confirmed
2. double top (weekly) points to 2,200 (log), 1,950 (arithmetic)- confirmed

6th October: The index held up nicely over the last couple of weeks. But outstanding targets are still likely.

Current target

Medium term:
1. double top (daily) points to 2,150 (log), 1,900 (arithmetic) - confirmed
2. double top (weekly) points to 2,200 (log), 1,950 (arithmetic)- confirmed

20th September: The index is heading for target of 2,200, or thereabouts. Possible interruption at 2,400.

Current Prediction:

Medium term:
1. double top (daily) points to 2,150 (log), 1,900 (arithmetic) - confirmed
2. double top (weekly) points to 2,200 (log), 1,950 (arithmetic)- confirmed

15th September: The index is heading for target of 2,200, or thereabouts. Possible interruption at 2,400.

Current Prediction:

Medium term:
1. double top (daily) points to 2,150 (log), 1,900 (arithmetic) - confirmed
2. double top (weekly) points to 2,200 (log), 1,950 (arithmetic)- confirmed

8th September: The index is heading for target of 2,200, or thereabouts. The index has broken out of resistance in the first chart. But I would be surprised if the recent rally continues, given the weak regional trend.

25th August: The index is heading for target of 2,150, or thereabouts. The rally over the last few weeks does not alter the bear trend.

18th August: The index is heading for target of 2,150, or thereabouts. The rally over the last few weeks does not alter the bear trend.

Current Prediction:

Medium term:
1. double top (daily) points to 2,150 (log), 1,900 (arithmetic) - confirmed
2. double top (weekly) points to 2,200 (log), 1,950 (arithmetic)- confirmed

14th July: The index is heading for target of 2,150, or thereabouts.

Current Prediction:

Medium term: double top points to 2,150 (log), 1,900 (arithmetic) - confirmed

7th July: The index is heading for target of 2,150, or thereabouts.

Current Prediction:

Medium term: double top points to 2,150 (log), 1,900 (arithmetic) - confirmed

30th June: The big top has broken out, giving a downside target of 2,150. There is support at 2,600 on the long term chart. This is the best hope for cancellation of the top.

Current Prediction:

Medium term: double top points to 2,150 (log), 1,900 (arithmetic) - confirmed

12th May: The big top has broken out, giving a downside target of 2,150. There is support at 2,600 on the long term chart. This is the best hope for cancellation of the top.

5th May: The big top has broken out, giving a downside target of 2,150. There is support at 2,600 on the long term chart. This is the best hope for cancellation of the top.

Current Prediction:

Short term: none

Medium: none double top points to 2,150 (log), 1,900 (arithmetic): unconfirmed

Long term:  none

Currency: none

28th April: The second chart shows a bullish long term scenario and good support. The top danger could well be a pullback to the long term bullish target. Let's see if the support at the current level holds.

Current Prediction:

Short term: none

Medium: none double top points to 2,150 (log), 1,900 (arithmetic): unconfirmed

Long term:  none

Currency: none

21st April: The second chart shows a bullish long term scenario and good support. The top danger could well be a pullback to the long term bullish target. Let's see if the support at the current level holds.

Current Prediction:

Short term: none

Medium: none double top points to 2,150 (log), 1,900 (arithmetic): unconfirmed

14th April: The index has broken out of a double top and pulled back above the neckline. Good supports as low as 2,500.

7th April: The index has broken out of a double top and pulled back above the neckline. Good supports as low as 2,500.

Current Prediction:

Short term: none

Medium: none double top points to 2,150 (log), 1,900 (arithmetic): unconfirmed

Long term:  none

Currency: none

31st March: The index has broken out of a double top. The top is not yet confirmed. There is good support at 2,600. A fall below this level, or a pullback to the neckline and turn, would give a target of 2,150. The long term chart still looks quite bullish.

Current Prediction:

Short term: none

Medium: none double top points to 2,150 (log), 1,900 (arithmetic): unconfirmed

Long term:  none

Currency: none

24th March: The index has broken out of a double top. The top is not yet confirmed. There is good support at 2,600. A fall below this level, or a pullback to the neckline and turn, would give a target of 2,150. The long term chart still looks quite bullish.

Current Prediction:

Short term: none

Medium: none double top points to 2,150 (log), 1,900 (arithmetic): unconfirmed

Long term:  double bottom pointing to 3,900 (arithmetic) - done

Currency: double bottom points to 42 -done

10th March: Topping danger in the first chart. But the long term bullish scenario remains in tact provided the index stays above 2,600 on the long term chart. So the situation is still ambiguous. A close below 2,900 would be the first danger signal.

Current Prediction:

Short term: none

Medium: none

Long term:  double bottom pointing to 4,200 (daily); 4,100 (weekly) likely.

Currency: double bottom points to 42 -done

3rd March: Topping danger in the first chart. But the long term bullish scenario remains in tact provided the index stays above 2,600 on the long term chart.

Current Prediction:

Short term: none

Medium: none

Long term:  double bottom pointing to 4,200 (daily); 4,100 (weekly) likely.

Currency: double bottom points to 42 -done

25th February: Topping danger in the first chart. But the long term bullish scenario remains in tact provided the index stays above 2,600 on the long term chart.

Current Prediction:

Short term: none

Medium: none

Long term:  double bottom pointing to 4,200 (daily); 4,100 (weekly) likely.

Currency: double bottom points to 42 -done

21st January : Topping danger in the first chart. But the long term bullish scenario remains in tact provided the index stays above support at 3,000 on the long term chart.

Current Prediction:

Short term: none

Medium: none

Long term:  double bottom pointing to 4,200 (daily); 4,100 (weekly) likely.

Currency: double bottom points to 42.

14th January: A bearish scenario in the first chart. But the longer term bullish scenario in the second chart is to be preferred. Support at 3,400 now being tested.

Current Prediction:

Short term: none

Medium: none

Long term:  double bottom pointing to 4,200 (daily); 4,100 (weekly) likely.

Currency: double bottom points to 42

7th January 2008: A bearish scenario in the first chart. But the longer term bullish scenario in the second chart is to be preferred.

Current Prediction:

Short term: none

Medium: none

Long term:  double bottom pointing to 4,200 (daily); 4,100 (weekly) likely.

Currency: double bottom points to 42.



2007
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2006
 
 

30th October: The recent new high gives a chance at a long term bottom with target at around 3,900. But the bottom needs confirmation.

16th October: The index is trapped under a strong resistance. But there is no sign of topping. We'll have to wait and see what happens.

9th October: The index is in danger of making a long term double top, as it is now at the 2,600 level. However, strong volume gives cause for hope that the index will breakout out of the current resistance and fulfil the scenario in the second chart: a long term double bottom with target of 4,000.

2nd October: Double top danger until the resistance in the first chart passes.

18th September: Resistance approaching. See the first chart.
21st August: Short term weakness shown in the first chart.

7th August: The index has made a short term bottom, but volume is weak. Resistance in the second chart at 2,600 is the major obstacle for the index. However, I would not be surprised if the index doesn't get that far before failing.

 
  3rd July: No change to speak of this week.
 

26th June: The index failed an important support in the first chart but is testing another important long term support.

8th May: Breakout from important long term resistance on the daily and weekly charts suggests that the market has entered a new bull phase. But strong resistance is nearby.

Current Prediction:

Short term: none

Medium: none

Long term:  1. medium-long term double bottom points  to 2,350 - done
                     2. daily and weekly chart double bottom points to 4,000 - not yet confirmed

Currency: Reverse head and shoulders points to 51 - done

1st May: The index has reached our medium term target. Next target, in the second chart,  at 2,350, is approaching.

Current Prediction:

Short term: none

Medium: double bottom points to 2,270 - done

Long term:  double bottom points  to 2,350

Currency: Reverse head and shoulders points to 51

17th April: A slightly higher high tends to support the target in the first chart.

Current Prediction:

Short term: none

Medium: double bottom points to 2,270

Long term:  double bottom points  to 2,350

Currency: Reverse head and shoulders points to 51

9th April: A modest turn on support in the first chart. Otherwise, nothing exciting.

Current Prediction:

Short term: none

Medium: double bottom points to 2,270

Long term:  double bottom points  to 2,350

Currency: Reverse head and shoulders points to 51

3rd April: The breakout from resistance at 2,170 seems to be holding. But no excitement yet.

Current Prediction:

Short term: none

Medium: double bottom points to 2,270

Long term:  double bottom points  to 2,350

Currency: Reverse head and shoulders points to 51

27th March: The index has broken resistance at 2,170, at last, and now has a good chance at 2,300.

Current Prediction:

Short term: none

Medium: double bottom points to 2,270

Long term:  double bottom points  to 2,350

Currency: Reverse head and shoulders points to 51

17th March: Still waiting for the resistance at 2,170 to break.

20th February: Resistance at 2,180 is really the main obstacle containing the index. The short and medium term charts do not give much indication of direction.

Current Prediction:

Short term: none

Medium: double bottom points to 2,270 - questionable.

Long term:  double bottom points  to 2,350

Currency: Reverse head and shoulders points to 51

13th February: A little top in the first chart. But the long term supports are all safe.

Current Prediction:

Short term: none

Medium: double bottom points to 2,270 - questionable.

Long term:  bottom points  to 2,350
 

Currency: Reverse head and shoulders points to 51

6th February: Not much excitement, but on balance, the market looks bullish. In particular, the index looks well supported by the black support in the second chart.

Current Prediction:

Short term: none

Medium: double bottom points to 2,270

Long term: l. grey pattern pointing to 2,350
                   2. double bottom points to 2,300 (weekly)

Currency: Reverse head and shoulders points to 51

30th January: Nothing exciting to report. The resistance in the third chart is still the most important obstacle.

Current Prediction:

Short term: none

Medium: double bottom points to 2,270

Long term: l. grey pattern pointing to 2,350
                   2. double bottom points to 2,300 (weekly)

Currency: 51 with possible interruption at 52.

23rd January: A short term pattern points to 2,270, or thereabouts. Other than that, we are still waiting for resistance to break in the second chart.

Current Prediction:

Short term: none

Medium: double bottom points to 2,270

Long term: l. grey pattern pointing to 2,350
                   2. double bottom points to 2,300 (weekly)

Currency: 51 with possible interruption at 52.

9th January:  A medium term resistance broken in the first chart and a long term resistance broken on the weekly chart. These breakouts suggest that the long term resistance on the daily chart (second below) will soon break. Let's see.

Current Prediction:

Short term: none

Medium: none

Long term: l. grey pattern pointing to 2,350
                   2. double bottom points to 2,300 (weekly)

Currency: 51 with possible interruption at 52.



2005

24th December: Short term top is cancelled. Now testing long term resistance in the third chart.

Current Prediction:

Short term: none

Medium: none

Long term: l. grey pattern pointing to 2,350
                   2. double bottom points to 2,300 (weekly)

Currency: 51 with possible interruption at 52.

24th December: Short term top is cancelled. Now testing long term resistance in the third chart.

Current Prediction:

Short term: none

Medium: none

Long term: l. grey pattern pointing to 2,350
                   2. double bottom points to 2,300 (weekly)

Currency: 51 with possible interruption at 52.

19th December: A short term top gives a target of 1,960, or thereabouts.

Current Prediction:

Short term: none

Medium: none

Long term: l. grey pattern pointing to 2,350
                   2. double bottom points to 2,300 (weekly)

Currency: 51 with possible interruption at 52.

12th December: Short term top scenario in the first chart. Long term resistance in the third chart. These factors suggest that the index could be about to take a short term plunge unless we see a breakout upside in the next week or two. On the other hand, there is an outstanding long term target of 2,300.  Thus a fall below 1,960 is unlikely.

Current Prediction:

Short term: none

Medium: none

Long term: l. grey pattern pointing to 2,350
                   2. double bottom points to 2,300 (weekly)

Currency: 51 with possible interruption at 52.

5th December: Testing long term resistance in the second chart. If resistance at the current level breaks, we could expect a swift rally to 2,400.

Current Prediction:

Short term: none

Medium: none

Long term: l. grey pattern pointing to 2,350
                   2. double bottom points to 2,300 (weekly)

Currency: none

28th November:  The index is testing resistance on the long term daily and weekly charts.

Current Prediction:

Short term: none

Medium: none

Long term: l. grey pattern pointing to 2,350
                   2. double bottom points to 2,300 (weekly)

Currency: none

21st November:   The weekly chart gives the best bullish indication for the market, with a target of 2,450. But resistance at 2,100 will be a test.

Current Prediction:

Short term: none

Medium: none

Long term: l. grey pattern pointing to 2,350
                   2. double bottom points to 2,300 (weekly)

Currency: none

14th November: The index has performed according to exptectations. Next test is the previous recent high at around 2,170. Currency has broken a strong resistance.

Current Prediction:

Short term: none

Medium: none

Long term: l. grey pattern pointing to 2,350
                   2. double bottom points to 2,300 (weekly)

7th November: Nice breakout on the daily and weekly chart give hope for more upside.

31st October: This market still looks bullish and is the only market in the region with a valid bullish target. Danger that the region will drag the index down.

Current Prediction:

Short term: none

Medium: none

Long term: l. grey pattern pointing to 2,350
                   2. double bottom points to 2,300 (weekly)

Currency: symmetrical triangle points to 56.85.

17th October: Still safe and currency possibly bottoming.

Current Prediction:

Short term: none

Medium: none

Long term: l. grey pattern pointing to 2,350
                   2. double bottom points to 2,300 (weekly)

Currency: symmetrical triangle points to 56.85.

10th October: Still the same story as that of last week: watch the rising supports in the first and second charts. A close at 1,800 on the weekly chart is likely to signal a trend reversal from bullish to bearish.

Current Prediction:

Short term: none

Medium: none

Long term: l. grey pattern pointing to 2,350
                   2. double bottom points to 2,300 (weekly)

Currency: symmetrical triangle points to 56.85.

26th September:Nice turn on support in all charts. But there is still a top danger to contend with.

19th September: Long term and weekly supports are still holding.

Current Prediction:

Short term: none

Medium: none

Long term: l. grey pattern pointing to 2,350
                   2. double bottom points to 2,300 (weekly)

Currency: symmetrical triangle points to 56.85.

12th September: Support has broken on the weekly chart, giving rise to the fear of a double top and more bearishness for this market. Needs another week or so to be clear. Daily chart support is still holding.

Current Prediction:

Short term: none

Medium: none

Long term: l. grey pattern pointing to 2,350
                   2. double bottom points to 2,300 (weekly)

Currency: symmetrical triangle points to 56.85

5th September: Testing good support in the second chart, at around 1,900. The support in the fund chart is also persuasive.

Current Prediction:

Short term: none

Medium: none

Long term: l. grey pattern pointing to 2,350
                   2. double bottom points to 2,300 (weekly)

Currency: symmetrical triangle points to 56.85.

29th August: A top danger in black. But the weekly chart still looks encouraging.

22nd August: The index is in danger of topping. But I would suggest the weekly chart is the more persuasive indicator. It shows a good support which is still in tact. If that support were to fail, I would be less sanguine about this market. Keep and eye on currency. A fall to 56.2 would suggest a further fall to around 56.8.

Current Prediction:

Short term: none

Medium: none

Long term: l. grey pattern pointing to 2,350
                   2. double bottom points to 2,300 (weekly)

8th August: Encouragement may be had from the weekly chart, which still looks bullish and the currency chart, which appears to be bottoming.

Current Prediction:

Short term: none

Medium: none

Long term: l. grey pattern pointing to 2,350
                   2. double bottom points to 2,300 (weekly)

1st August: Good chance of bottoming on medium term rising support, as best shown in the second chart.

25th July: Good support for both the index and currency at their current levels. With luck we will see a bottom form for both currency and the index.

Current Prediction:

Short term: none

Medium: none

Long term: l. grey pattern pointing to 2,350
                    3. double bottom points to 2,300 (weekly)

Currency: double top points to 56.5

20th July: The weekly chart with target of 2,300 is the clearest and most persuasive indicator.

Current Prediction:

Short term: none

Medium: none

Long term: l. grey pattern pointing to 2,350
                   3. double bottom points to 2,300 (weekly)

Currency: double top points to 56.5

11th July: A disappointing fall through support for the index gives rise to a double top scenario.

Current Prediction:

Short term: none

Medium: none

Long term: l. grey pattern pointing to 2,350
                   2. double bottom points to 2,800 - not confirmed
                   3. double bottom points to 2,300 (weekly)

Currency: double top points to 56.5

27th June: More consolidation on the ascending support in all the charts. The weekly chart looks particularly promising.

Current Prediction:

Short term: none

Medium: none

Long term: l. grey pattern pointing to 2,350
                   2. double bottom points to 2,800 - not confirmed
                   3. double bottom points to 2,300 (weekly)

Currency: double top points to 56.5
 

20th June: Nice consolidation on support in the first chart. Otherwise, nothing exciting last week.

Current Prediction:

Short term: none

Medium: none

Long term: l. grey pattern pointing to 2,350
                   2. double bottom points to 2,800 - not confirmed
                   3. double bottom points to 2,300 (weekly)

Currency: double top points to 56.5

13th June: The index still looks bullish and well supported. Currency is likely to drop a few percent in the short term.

Current Prediction:

Short term: none

Medium: none

Long term: l. grey pattern pointing to 2,350
                   2. double bottom points to 2,800 - not confirmed
                   3. double bottom points to 2,300 (weekly)

Currency: double top points to 56.5

6th June: Good rally last couple of weeks and nice turn on neckline makes this market one of the most hopeful prospects for the region. 2,400, at least, in the next few months, has a good chance.

Current Prediction:

Short term: none

Medium: none

Long term: l. grey pattern pointing to 2,350
                   2. double bottom points to 2,800 - not confirmed
                   3. double bottom points to 2,300 (weekly)

Currency: double bottom points to 54.5

21st May: Good consolidation on long term support in the first chart gives hope that the index is still in a strong bullish mode. A failure of the the support would suggest a fall back to 1,600, or lower.

Current Prediction:

Short term: none

Medium: none

Long term: l. grey pattern pointing to 2,350
                   2. double bottom points to 2,800 - not confirmed
                   3. double bottom points to 2,300 (weekly)

Currency: double bottom points to 54.5

16th May: A nice turn on double support in the first chart gives hope that the index has bottomed.

Current Prediction:

Short term: none

Medium: none

Long term: l. grey pattern pointing to 2,350
                   2. double bottom points to 2,800 - not confirmed
                   3. double bottom points to 2,300 (weekly)

Currency: double bottom points to 54.5

25th April: Good support at the current level on the first chart and valid targets pointing higher suggest that the index might have found a bottom. But no bottom signs yet.

Current Prediction:

Short term: Top points to 1,820 - done

Medium: none

Long term: l. grey pattern pointing to 2,350
                   2. double bottom points to 2,800 - not confirmed
                   3. double bottom points to 2,300 (weekly)

Currency: double bottom points to 54.5

18th April:  We're likely to see 1,810 or 1,820 in the next few days or weeks.

Current Prediction:

Short term: Top points to 1,820.

Medium: none

Long term: l. grey pattern pointing to 2,350
                   2. double bottom points to 2,800 - not confirmed
                   3. double bottom points to 2,300 (weekly)

Currency: double bottom points to 54.5

11th April:  A fall back to 1,800, or even 1,600, is conceivable. But the long term trend is more likely up.

Current Prediction:

Short term: none

Medium: none

Long term: l. grey pattern pointing to 2,350
                   2. double bottom points to 2,800 - not confirmed
                   3. double bottom points to 2,300 (weekly)

Currency: double bottom points to 54.5

4th April:  A fall to around 1,800 most likely.

Current Prediction:

Short term: none

Medium: none

Long term: l. grey pattern pointing to 2,350
                   2. double bottom points to 2,800 - not confirmed
                   3. double bottom points to 2,300 (weekly)

Currency: double bottom points to 54.5

21st March: Good support just above 2,000. Target of around 2,300 still looks good.

Current Prediction:

Short term: none

Medium: none

Long term: l. grey pattern pointing to 2,350
                   2. double bottom points to 2,800 - not confirmed
                   3. double bottom points to 2,300 (weekly)

Currency: double bottom points to 54.5

14th March: The index is trapped under strong resistance at the current level. But the greater probability is that the index will reach the target of 2,350, shown in grey in the first chart.

Current Prediction:

Short term: none

Medium: none

Long term: l. grey pattern pointing to 2,350
                   2.double bottom points to 2,800 - not confirmed
                   3. double bottom points to 2,300 (weekly)

Currency: double bottom points to 54.5

8th March: The index is inching towards target at around 2,300 to 2,400.

Current Prediction:

Short term: none

Medium: none

Long term: l. double bottom points to 2,800 - not confirmed
                   2. double bottom points to 2,300 (weekly)

Currency: double bottom points to 54.5

21st February: Possible resistances at the current level. But the 2,450 level is more likely to pose an obstacle. No sign of topping yet.

Current Prediction:

Short term: none

Medium: none

Long term: l. double bottom points to 2,800-not confirmed
                   2. double bottom points to 2,300 (weekly)

Currency: double bottom points to 54.5

14th February: The index broke a strong resistance on the daily chart. 2,500 looks likely in the medium term. Strong resistance in the fund chart at the current level. Currency also looks strong.

Current Prediction:

Short term: none

Medium: none

Long term: l. double bottom points to 2,800-not confirmed
                   2. double bottom points to 2,300 (weekly)

Currency: double bottom points to 54.5

31st January: Now facing strong resistance, as shown in the first chart. But there is good upside till strong resistance at 2,450.

Current Prediction:

Short term: symmetrical triangle points to 1,950 - done

Medium: none

Long term: l. double bottom points to 1,950 (daily) -done
                  2. double bottom points to 2,800-not confirmed
                   3. double bottom points to 2,300 (weekly)

Currency: double bottom points to 54.5

17th January: The long term patterns look good, both on the index and the fund charts, suggesting at least a 60% upside in the current bear rally.

Current Prediction:

Short term: symmetrical triangle points to 1,950

Medium: none

Long term: l. double bottom points to 1,950 (daily)
                   2. double bottom points to 2,800-not confirmed
                   3. double bottom points to 2,300 (weekly)

Currency: none

10th January: Some encouraging breakouts in all charts, daily, weekly and fund. Short term target of 1,950 is likely. The target in the long term daily chart is around 2,800. Volume is fairly good, giving the market a fair chance of seeing target this year.

Current Prediction:

Short term: symmetrical triangle points tp 1,950

Medium: none

Long term: l. double bottom points to 1,950 (daily)
                   2. double bottom points to 2,800-not comfirmed
                   3. double bottom points to 2,300 (weekly)

Currency: none



2004
20th December: A big resistance at 1,800 still awaits breaking. The triangle in the first chart deserves watching.

Current Prediction:

Short term: none

Medium: none

Long term:  l. double bottom points to 1,950 (daily)
                    2. double bottom points to 1,900 (weekly)

Currency: none

13th December: Top danger for the index.

6th December: The index is giving no clues away, but the fund chart shows a breakout from a four year double bottom - a very encouraging bullish signal. Volume is still weak on the long term daily chart.

Current Prediction:

Short term: none

Medium: none

Long term:  l. double bottom points to 1,950 (daily)
                    2. double bottom points to 1,900 (weekly)

Currency: none

20th November: Still a top danger.

Current Prediction:

Short term: none

Medium: none

Long term:  l. double bottom points to 1,950 (daily)
                    2. double bottom points to 1,900 (weekly)

Currency: none

15th November: The index could be topping for a medium term consolidation shown as 'shoulder' scenarios in the charts below. On the other hand, the bullish regional trend may intervene to replenish the energy of the market before we see the scenarios shown below reach their full potentials.

Current Prediction:

Short term: none

Medium: none

Long term:  l. double bottom points to 1,950 (daily)
                    2. double bottom points to 1,900 (weekly)

25th October: Not much to report. The index is encountering resistance at the 1,900 resistance. But no top has formed. Currency could be making a short term bottom.

Current Prediction:

Short term: none

Medium: none

Long term:  l. double bottom points to 1,950 (daily)
                    2. double bottom points to 1,900 (weekly)

Currency: none

18th October: Index is close enough to our first target and has hit resistance. We can now be on the lookout for a short term correction.

Current Prediction:

Short term: none

Medium: none

Long term:  l. double bottom points to 1,950 (daily)
                    2. double bottom points to 1,900 (weekly)

11th October: The index has hit tough resistance as it approaches our first target.

4th October: Nothing to write home about.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom points to 1,070 (daily and weekly)

4th October: The index is rallying impressively, but overall turnover in the market is still low. Strong resistance may be expected at around 1,820.

Current Prediction:

Short term: none

Medium: none

Long term:  l. double bottom points to 1,950 (daily)
                    2. double bottom points to 1,900 (weekly)

Currency: none

20th September: The medium term looks good. But the long term, after 1,900, is questionable unless volume picks up substantially.

Current Prediction:

Short term: none

Medium: none

Long term:  l. double bottom points to 1,950 (daily)
                    2. double bottom points to 1,900 (weekly)

Currency: none

4th September: Resistance at 1,600 and corresponding resistances in the fund and weekly charts have broken, giving a very nice long term reversal pattern. This is one of the best patterns in the region.

Current Prediction:

Short term: none

Medium: none

Long term:  l. double bottom points to 1,950 (daily)
                    2. double bottom points to 1,900 (weekly)

Currency: none

30th August: The market is squeezing itself into the apex of resistance and support. I guess something has to pop soon, and, given the regional trend, my guess would be that the breakout would be upside.

Current Prediction:

Short term: none

Medium: none

Long term:  l. double bottom points to 1,950 (daily)
                    2. double bottom points to 1,900 (weekly)

Currency: none

23rd August: A very quiet and lacklustre market. We're still waiting for the index to break a key resistance. We'll just have to be patient.

Current Prediction:

Short term: none

Medium: none

Long term:  l. double bottom points to 1,950 (daily)
                    2. double bottom points to 1,900 (weekly)

Currency: none

9th August: The index and the fund charts are all testing long term resistances.

Current Prediction:

Short term: none

Medium: none

Long term:  l. double bottom points to 1,950 (daily)
                    2. double bottom points to 1,900 (weekly)

Currency: none

2nd August: Both the fund and the index are testing important resistances. Either we see a top and turn downside, or a breakout upside.

Current Prediction:

Short term: none

Medium: none

Long term:  l. double bottom points to 1,950 (daily)
                    2. double bottom points to 1,900 (weekly)

26th July: Still waiting for a breakout at the 1,600 level, or if the worst were to happen, a medium term top.

12th July: The market is approaching important resistance on the daily and fund charts. Could be an important breakout soon. The weekly chart suggests that the breakout might be about to happen.

28th June: Both the index and the fund chart are testing important approaching resistance. The index resistance is at around 1,600.

Current Prediction:

Short term: none

Medium: none

Long term:  l. double bottom points to 1,950 (daily)
                    2. double bottom points to 1,900 (weekly)

Currency: none

31st May: The biggest obstacle at the moment is the resistance at 1,600. If that breaks, and volume picks up, there is a good chance that the index will take off.

Current Prediction:

Short term: none

Medium: none

Long term:  l. double bottom points to 1,950 (daily)
                    2. double bottom points to 1,900 (weekly)

Currency: none

10th May: This market could go either way. The double bottom in the second chart is reasonably persuasive. But the market is unlikely to escape a weak regional trend.

Current Prediction:

Short term: none

Medium: none

Long term:  l. double bottom points to 1,950 (daily)
                    2. double bottom points to 1,900 (weekly)
Currency: none

3rd May: Strong resistance on the weekly chart and weakness in the region are likely to slow the market.

Current Prediction:

Short term: none

Medium: none

Long term:  l. double bottom points to 1,950 (daily)
                    2. double bottom points to 1,900 (weekly)
Currency: none

26th April: Nice rallies on the daily chart. But the long term weekly chart shows resistance at the current level. The fund chart is waiting to breakout. It would be a very bullish signal if the weekly resistance and the fund chart bottom break out upside.

Current Prediction

Short term: falling wedge points to 1,570 - done

Medium: none

Long term:  l. double bottom points to 1,950 (daily)
                    2. double bottom points to 1,900 (weekly)
Currency: none

16th April: The long term daily and weekly charts look bullish. Resistance at 1,610 to 1,620.

Current Prediction

Short term: falling wedge points to 1,570

Medium: none

Long term:  l. double bottom points to 1,950 (daily) - reinstated
                    2. double bottom points to 1,900 (weekly)-reinstated
Currency: none

12th April: An impressive rally last week tends to confirm the neckline for the long term double bottom. Volume is starting to build.

Current Prediction

Short term: falling wedge points to 1,570

Medium: none

Long term:  l. double bottom points to 1,950 (daily) - reinstated
                    2. double bottom points to 1,900 (weekly)-reinstated
Currency: none

5th April: The index rallied above the neckline of a short term top, cancelling it. Target of around 1,900 is tentatively reinstated. Target would be confirmed if the index rallies above resistance at around 1,630.

Current Prediction

Short term: falling wedge points to 1,570

Medium: none

Long term:  l. double bottom points to 1,950 (daily) - reinstated
                    2. double bottom points to 1,900 (weekly)-reinstated
Currency: none

15th March: Long term bottom on the daily chart is testing support at the neckline. Critical level is around 1,380.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium: none

Long term:  double bottom points to 1,950 (daily) and 1,900 (weekly)

Currency: none

8th March: No change for the index. Weekly chart shows a nice double bottom.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium: none

Long term:  double bottom points to 1,950 (daily) and 1,900 (weekly)

Currency: none

23rd February: The turn on the neckline of our long term bottom appears to have held for a week or two. That is a good sign. Three strong days of volume last week is another good sign. A further good sign would be a rally above 1,565, the previous recent high.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium: none

Long term:  double bottom points to 1,950 (daily) and 1,900 (weekly)

16th February: A nice turn on the neckline of our long term bottom. Similar turn on the weekly chart. Encouraging - but volume could still be better.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium: none

Long term:  double bottom points to 1,950 (daily) and 1,900 (weekly)

Currency: none

9th February: The index turned nicely on neckline support last week, giving hope for our target of 1,950.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium: none

Long term:  double bottom points to 1,950 (daily) and 1,900 (weekly)

26th January: Long term bottom is fairly persuasive. More volume would be better.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium: none

Long term:  double bottom points to 1,950 (daily) and 1,900 (weekly)

Currency: none

19th January: Consolidation on firm volume support our targets of around 1,900.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium: none

Long term:  double bottom points to 1,950 (daily) and 1,900 (weekly)

Currency: none

12th January: The index has broken out of a double bottom on the daily and the weekly charts. It will most likely follow the regional trend. Although volume is not very impressive, this is most likely the beginning.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium: none

Long term:  double bottom points to 1,950 (daily) and 1,900 (weekly)

Currency: none 



2003

29th December: A long term double bottom scenario could soon break. Volume is not really impressive.

1st December: The index broke a good support last week. No clear support.

24th November: A support in the first chart. Otherwise, nothing very exciting.

17th November: Short term top danger. But we are still waiting for breakout from the long term double bottom.

17th November: A week of falls but support is near. A close at 1,450 would be the next bullish signal - on strong volume of course. A close below 1,300 would be dangerous.

10th November: Volume has been picking up for 2 weeks now, giving hope that the index might be able to make a valid long term reversal pattern. Still has a long way to go.

3rd November: Volume began to build last week. But there is still a long way to go before we can get excited.

27th October: The market dithered around last week. At best, one could say that there is some strength in the market in that it did not fall with the regional trend last week. But the more likely explanation, given the lack of the volume in the market, is that it is still asleep.

20th October: No volume yet for the market. But currency could be bottoming.

13th October: Nothing exciting. Despite the sharp rally last week, volume is still negligible.

6th October: Volume is still negligible for this market. Resistance is at 1,400. But without a sharp increase in volume, there is not too much to hope for in the short to medium term.

22nd September: A long term double bottom scenario is forming. Much more volume would be needed to make the scenario persuasive.

15th September: The short term still has a bearish spectre. It's not the same bearish spectre as that of last week, but it will remain unless the index closes around 1,320.

8th September: A dangerous top scenario could see the market fall back to previous lows. But I would give the benefit of the doubt to the regional bullish trend, unless the bearish scenario were confirmed.

1st September: The first two charts show bearish dangers. But we should remember that the index is very close to long term support and the regional trend is bullish. The fund chart is still bullish. Thus I think the market deserves a little patience.

18th August: The index is looking toppy in the short term. But the fund still looks bullish. Currency is on good support.

11th August: The short term chart for the index shows a top danger. The fund shows good support not too far away.

4th August: The short term looks a little toppy, with a possible fall back to 1,100.

28th July: The index could be making a little top. But the fund chart suggests that the market has more upside. Long term, we are still awaiting more volume to come into the market. Anything could happen in the meantime.

21st July: Our medium term target has been reached. We now need to see the index break resistance at 1,500 in order to get a new target.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium: reverse head and shoulders points to 1,300 - done

5th July: Volume is remaining solid, giving cause to hope that the current rally is sustainable and is the beginning of a long term reversal.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium-long term: reverse head and shoulders points to 1,300

30th June: The index is on course for 1,300. However, on the long term charts, volume is still very small.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium-long term: reverse head and shoulders points to 1,300

16th June: After a year of ambling along we can finally say that the index is bottoming. Good volume for the last couple of weeks and a nicely proportioned reversal pattern sitting on a good long term support are three very positive indicators.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium-long term: reverse head and shoulders points to 1,300

9th June: The index has broken out of an excellent reverse head and shoulders pattern, but with strong volume only last week. Nonetheless, chances are that the index is bottoming, along with the trend in the rest of the region.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium-long term: reverse head and shoulders points to 1,300 - not yet confirmed

Long term:  none

Currency: none

2nd June: Volume picked up a little last week. However, in order to see a sustained long term bull trend, we need to see much more volume.

26th May: Still nothing exciting. No volume to inspire hope of a reversal, despite the fact that the index is on a good support.

12th May: Nice bottoming scenarios. But no volume to support them. Nothing much to pin one's hopes to.

28th April: The index plunged last week after rallying on weak volume. Support back near 1,000 is likely to be retested. With luck, any subsequent rally would be accompanied by stronger volume.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: triple bottom points to 1,170 - cancelled

18th April: A nice bottoming pattern. But volume is still inadequate. It could all fizzle. The fund looks encouraging. But unimpressive volume in the market should make us cautious.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: triple bottom points to 1,170.

29th March: Volume is still inadequate for a bottom. We could see our bear hybernate for a few more months.

24th March: We now have a nice bottom scenario. All we need is the volume.

17th March: The first chart shows a nice bottom scenario. It would be persuasive if there were a rally to 1,080 on huge volume.

10th March: The index has been spared large falls that the rest of the region suffered over the last couple of weeks. Let's see if long term supports will hold in the coming expected bearishness of the next few weeks/months.

3rd March: The chart below shows a bullish scenario. But it would need lots of volume to be credible.

24th  February: Our patience is being tested with this market. I'll wake you up if anything happens.

10th  February: Volume is too weak to be persuasive of a bottom. At best, we can hope that the index will stay above long term support.

3rd February: No change. Still waiting and hoping for a bottom at the current level. Volume does not suggest a bottom yet.

27th January: Bottoming is still a hope for this market. The index is close to good long term support. But there is no clear indication of bottoming.

13th January: The index has a chance of bottoming. But we would need to see a close above 1,100 on good volume.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term:  none

Currency: none 



2002

23rd December: The index is now testing support at around 970. If that fails, we have one last long term support.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term:  none

Currency: none

16th December: Long term support is holding and there is a chance of short term bottom, which, with luck, would develop into a longer term pattern. But all of this could take all of next year.

9th December: Volume has been reasonably good over the last couple of weeks, but still marginal. Still just a hope for a bottom at the current level.

2nd December: Good supports at the current level give the index a chance at bottoming.

18th November: Possible bottom at the current level. More time needed to tell.

11th November: Nothing much to go on. A rally over the last two weeks gives no indication of a bottom. And there's still the chance that the index will fall to long term support at around 950.

2nd November: The index is touching one long term support and close to another. Accordingly, there is a chance that a bottom will soon form.

28th October: Still waiting for a bottom, and the retesting of long term support.

19th October: Not affected by the exuberance demonstrated elsewhere in the region.

12th October: A fall to the 1,000 region is still more likely

7th October: Not much change. Interesting to see how the index is holding onto the support in the first chart. But that could change in a flash.

30th September: The index is approaching the support at 1,120. If it fails, we can expect a fall to the next support at around 900.

23rd September: A short term bottom gives faint hope. A similar chart for the fund has failed. Not surprising if the index short term bottom failed too. The major support to look at is the daily chart with support at 1,100. A close below that support would suggest a fall back to the 950 region (as I have been suggesting for some months, despite the lack of clear prediction).

16th September: The index has made a little double bottom. But the accompanying volume is dubious. The weekly chart shows a possible turn on support. But more evidence is needed to inspire confidence that the index is bottoming.

9th September: An interesting support at the current level in the second chart. But there is no build up of volume that would attend a bottom. I am not hopeful in the short term.

19th August: The index could be making a bottom. But a fall to 960, at least, would be more likely.

12th August: No change. A bottom somewhere between 900 and 960 is still most likely.

22nd July: The patient is still in a coma, and is likely to be for a month or two at least.

15th July: The index looks like it's heading back to support at 950. With luck a double bottom would form in a few months.

1st July: The index looks like it's heading back to support at 950.

24th June: The index is on a possible long term support at the current level. But there is a good chance that we will see a fall back to the previous low at the 1,000 level.

Current Prediction

Short term: double top points to 1,240 - done

10th June: The index has almost reached short term target of 1,240. It is on good channel support and volume is still good. In these circumstances, there is a chance that the index could be bottoming. On the other hand, there is no bottoming pattern and the fund chart is on the verge of pointing down much further. We are left in a state of uncertainty (so what's new?). Take a look at last week's long term daily chart, which appears below the new stuff. It shows the good long term support that, with luck, will prevent further decline.

Current Prediction

Short term: double top points to 1,240

Medium term:  none

Long term:  none

Currency: none

3rd June: The index drifted up and down last week. We are still waiting for a breakout from the long term reversal pattern. Might have to wait a while longer.

Current Prediction

Short term: double top points to 1,240

Medium term:  none

Long term:  none

Currency: none

27th May: We are waiting for the index to close at 1,500, in order to confirm a change of long term trend from bearish to bullish. A fall through long term support at 1,300 would diminish hopes for such a reversal.

Current Prediction

Short term: double top points to 1,240 - valid again

13th May: The index is making a nice symmetrical reversal pattern. A close at around 1,480, on strong volume, would break the pattern and give a bullish target of around 1,950. But the outlook is not all rosy. The short term chart shows a top pointing to 1,240. Such a fall would destroy the symmetry of the reversal pattern, reducing its chances.

Current Prediction

Short term: double top points to 1,240 - valid again

Medium term:  none

Long term:  none

Currency: none

6th May: The index is making a nice reversal pattern. Volume is good. We now need a breakout of the pattern with a close at around 1,500, in order to complete the reversal. Currency is looking bullish.

Current Prediction

Short term: double top points to 1,240 - cancelled

28th April: The index has made a short term double top pointing to 1,240. "Leg" support at 1,290 would be the likely point of cancellation if the top is to fail.

Current Prediction

Short term: double top points to 1,240

Medium term:  none

Long term:  none

Currency: none

21st April: The index is meandering along in a narrow range and with a few good days of volume. This conduces to my reversal scenario. But we need a breakout from the neckline at around 1,490, on impressive volume. If that happens, we can say that the index has reversed and we can expect a target of around 2,000.

8th April: No change. The patient is still in a stable condition.

31st March: Nothing much going on in this market. But that could be a good thing if symmetry is to be our guide.

9th March: The index did nothing very spectacular last week. This is good. In fact it would be good if the index spent the rest of the month meandering. We would then have a nice pattern which could indicate an end to the bear trend.

2nd March: Volume is still sufficient for a bullish reversal scenario. A month of sideways movement on solid volume would be the best scenario.

25th February: A few weeks of sideways movement would now be the best scenario for this market. See the first chart. Provided the index stays above the mid 1,300's and volume remains strong, we could see a nice reversal pattern develop.

18th February: The index is approaching resistance at 1,440. A few weeks in the range of 1,340 to 1,440 would be welcome, giving the index time to build volume and create a reversal pattern.

11th February: No substantial change last week. Quite likely that we could see two or three weeks more of inactivity. Building volume is one thing to look for. The other important signal would be a breakout from the weekly resistance at 1,400.

2nd February: The index is rising on good volume. No bullish targets. But resistance at 1,420. Volume is still minuscule for the long term.

28th January: More rallying, more volume. It's still very tiny volume in the long term context. But there is now cause for hope that the index is making a bottom.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  head and shoulders top (taking 22/02/01 intraday blip as the top) pointing to 973 (log) and 804 (arithmetic)

Long term:  none

Currency: none

6th January: This market is still dormant.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  head and shoulders top (taking 22/02/01 intraday blip as the top) pointing to 973 (log) and 804 (arithmetic)

Long term:  none

Currency: none 


2001

24th December: Not much happening here. We are still waiting for volume. Possible bottom for the currency.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  head and shoulders top (taking 22/02/01 intraday blip as the top) pointing to 973 (log) and 804 (arithmetic)

Long term:  none

Currency: none

10th December: The best that can be said for this market is that the index has turned on a good long term support. Other than that there is nothing exciting to report. Volume is low and there are no bullish patterns to speak of.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  head and shoulders top (taking 22/02/01 intraday blip as the top) pointing to 973 (log) and 804 (arithmetic)

24th November: The index has made a little double bottom. So has the fund. But the volume accompanying the double bottom breakout for the index is not persuasive.

Current Prediction

Short term: double bottom points to 1,118

Medium term:  head and shoulders top (taking 22/02/01 intraday blip as the top) pointing to 973 (log) and 804 (arithmetic)

Long term:  none

Currency: none

19th November: Good long term support on the weekly chart is the best hope that this market will bottom at the current level. Volume is not yet encouraging.

12th November: Some possible long term supports, but no sign yet of a bottom. The weekly chart shows quite a persuasive support. But without a bottom, there is still a good chance of failure.
 

22nd October:  A valid minimum target of 973 is approaching. After that, look to long term support at around 800.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  1. head and shoulders top (ignoring 22/02/01 intraday blip) pointing to 1,110 (log-done) and 1,050
                              (arithmetic-done).
                           2. head and shoulders top (taking 22/02/01 intraday blip as the top) pointing to 973 (log) and 804 (arithmetic)

Long term:  none

Currency: none

15th October: A medium term top points to around 830. Long term support is below 800. Quite likely that the index will fall to this level.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  1. head and shoulders top (ignoring 22/02/01 intraday blip) pointing to 1,110 (log-done) and 1,050
                             (arithmetic-done).
        2. head and shoulders top (taking 22/02/01 intraday blip as the top) pointing to 973 (log) and 804 (arithmetic)

Long term:  none

Currency: none

8th October: The index is retesting the bottom of 1998. With luck, a double bottom will form. Otherwise, we shall have to endure a new low, which could see the index fall to as low as 600.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  head and shoulders top pointing to 1,110 (log-done) and 1,050 (arithmetic).

Long term:  none

Currency: none

1st October: The index has nearly reached log target for the medium term top. After that there only horizontal supports for the index. The fund chart, on the other hand, suggests a more proximate bottom.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  head and shoulders top pointing to 1,110 (log) and 1,050 (arithmetic).

Long term:  none

Currency: none

17th September: The index fell through long term support, suggesting a retesting of the previous low. If that fails, we should be prepared for a new low in the region of 700 to 800.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  head and shoulders top pointing to 1,110 (log) and 1,050 (arithmetic).

Long term:  none

Currency: none

10th September: Fairly good long term support at the current level. But no sign of a bottom. If the support breaks, we should expect 1,110, at least.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  head and shoulders top pointing to 1,110 (log) and 1,050 (arithmetic).

Long term:  none

Currency: none

27th August: The index could be making a bottom. But it could be a long bottom, perhaps a year.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  head and shoulders top pointing to 1,110 (log) and 1,050 (arithmetic).

20th August: Currency could be bottoming. And long term weekly remains unbroken. Otherwise no change.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  head and shoulders top pointing to 1,110 (log) and 1,050 (arithmetic).

13th August: The long term support at around 1,300 has broken. Next support is at 1,260. Weekly support is at around 1,250. That still offers some hope for a bottom at the current level. Otherwise, we should be looking at the previous low, around 1,100, to be retested. A rebound in the currency is interesting.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  head and shoulders top pointing to 1,110 (log) and 1,050 (arithmetic).

Long term:  none

Currency: none

30th July: The long term support at 1,300 is likely to be tested. If it fails, we are likely to see 1,110, at least.

Current Prediction

Short term: double top pointing to 1,280

Medium term:  head and shoulders top pointing to 1,110 (log) and 1,050 ( arithmetic).

23rd July: Short and medium term targets point to 1,110. But long term supports at 1,340 and 1,290 need to break before we can be confident of 1,110.

Current Prediction

Short term: double top pointing to 1,280

Medium term:  head and shoulders top pointing to 1,110 (log) and 1,050 ( arithmetic).

Long term:  none

Currency: none

9th July: The long term weekly support at 1,350 is the next important support to watch for.

23rd June: The index turned on resistance at 1,480. Volume is still good. So there is a chance of a bottom if the index breaks the resistance at 1,480. Otherwise, a top will break if the index falls below 1,390.

18th June: A few days of good volume give hope for the start of a bottom. But resistance at 1,500 is approaching. And there is a good chance that the index will spend the next six months idling at the current level.

4th June: The market is still in the doldrums. There are a few good supports to keep in mind. 1,390 is the first one. If that level fails, we would have a target of  1,110. But long term support at the 1,300 level make 1,110 a lesser probability.

28th May: The double bottom pointing to 1,530 is cancelled.

Current Prediction

Short term: double bottom points to 1,530. Cancelled.

21st May: No great rally to 1,530, as expected. But the target is still valid, provided the index stays above 1,440.

Current Prediction

Short term: double bottom points to 1,530

14th May:  A short term rally to 1,530 or higher is likely if last Friday's gains are extended.

9th April: A little short term bottom coincides with a long term support. There is not yet any significance for the long term trend. But it's something to keep an eye on.

19th March: The best case scenario is a reversal at the current level. But I doubt it, given the world markets being in decline. A return to the previous bottom and a hibernation for the rest of the year is the more likely scenario. The worst case would be a new low.

12th March: The index is on a good long term support at the moment. But it is otherwise lacklustre. If the current support breaks, we could see a fall to 1,450 without must resistance.

5th March: No clear indication for this market. I wouldn't be surprised if the index falls back to its previous low, given the weak regional sentiment. But who knows! A few scenarios are shown below.

26th February:  Apart from a little double top, nothing very interesting.

Current Prediction

Short term: double top points to 1,580.

Medium term:  none

Long term:  none

Currency: double bottom points to 44.5. Resistance at 46.5

22nd January: The index broke out of a medium term reverse head and shoulders. Volume is still patchy. Thus we can afford to wait a week or two before pronouncing a highly probable reversal. A couple of weeks of solid volume would confirm that the market has reversed. Some interesting long term scenarios are shown below.

8th January: Nothing exciting to report, except that the arithmetic target of 1,170 is running out of time, in which case, we could see the index bottom at the current level. A break above 1,480 on strong volume could indicate a bottom. A fall below 1,370 suggests a further fall to 1,240. 


2000

18th December: The index is still in danger of falling to the outstanding arithmetic target of 1,170. A reversal at the current level would require a big boost of volume.

Current Prediction

Short term: double top points to 1,320

Medium term:  none

Long term:  Head and shoulders top arithmetic target of 1,170 is outstanding.

4th December: Supports and bullish scenarios have failed, giving the impression that the index is going to retest the long term support close to its previous low, and quite possibly fall to 1,150, our long term target.

27th November: More consolidation last week gives nothing much to go on: perhaps a pennant taking the index to 1,640. But a breakout from the medium term double bottom would be more persuasive.

20th November: Some consolidation last week on some reasonable volume gives hope for a reversal scenario. But the last two weeks of gains mean nothing until the index makes a larger pattern. A breakout above 1,520 would give a valid double bottom and a medium term reversal pattern. If this fails to happen, expect a return to previous lows, if not lower.

13th November: The rebound last week broke out of a wedge on the weekly chart and the fund chart. But a wedge breakout alone is not sufficiently persuasive to pronounce a long term reversal. And one week's activity alone is insufficient evidence from which to draw long term trend conclusions. Let's see if a larger pattern develops, accompanied by sustained volume. If this happens over the next few weeks, we might be able to say with confidence that the index has bottomed. If the current rally fizzles, we have our long term targets of 1,150 and below to consider.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term:  Head and shoulders top arithmetic target of 1,150 is outstanding.

Currency: none

6th November: Chance for a reversal, with today's collossal surge. But one day doesn't reverse the trend. We'll have to keep our eyes peeled. A chart sent by Maurice Cruz shows the 15 year support on which the index turned, suggesting that the market has indeed made a bottom at 1,250.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  triangle confirms target of 1,220

Long term:  Head and shoulders top arithmetic target of 1,150 is outstanding.

Currency: none

30th October: No news for the index. It merely turned on a medium term resistance. Chances are it is heading fort target. The Peso hit target of 51 faster than we had expected. But hitting target does not indicate a bottom. We shall have to wait for a bottom pattern.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  triangle confirms target of 1,220

Long term:  Head and shoulders top arithmetic target of 1,150 is outstanding.

Currency: target of 51 - done

23rd October: The index is falling to targets. No sign of a bottom at that level. But there is a possible long term support approaching. Maybe.....

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  triangle confirms target of 1,220

Long term:  Head and shoulders top arithmetic target of 1,150 is outstanding.

Currency: target of 51.

16th October: The index is now falling towards its next targets. Expect at least 1,220. The Peso is also likely to keep falling. 51 is a likely target.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  triangle confirms target of 1,220

Long term:  Head and shoulders top arithmetic target of 1,150 is outstanding.

Currency: target of 51.

9th October: As expected, the index fell in accordance with our triangle prediction. There's still a long way to go. The fund chart has reached support of the previous bottom. We can look for a rebound at this point. But I wouldn't get too hopeful. The fund is more likely to make a new low.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  triangle confirms target of 1,220

Long term:  Head and shoulders top arithmetic target of 1,150 is outstanding.

Currency: support at 46.4

2nd October: The long term support is repaired. But there is no indication that the bearish targets of 1,220 or 1,150 will be interrupted.

25th September: A medium term triangle and the failure of the long term support confirm the prediction of a fall back to somewhere near the previous low for the index.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  triangle confirms target of 1,220

Long term:  Head and shoulders top arithmetic target of 1,150 is outstanding.

Currency: support at 46.4.

18th September: The index is still on good long term support. But there is a clear target of 1,150 outstanding. A triangle is forming on the medium term chart. If the index falls below 1,420, a further target of 1,200 will be confirmed.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term:  Arithmetic target of 1,150 is outstanding. Log target of 1,390 has been passed. So there's a chance that the index could reverse at the current level.

Currency: support at 46.4.

11th September: The index is trapped under a long term resistance. Nothing bullish to suggest a reversal at the current level.

4th September: No volume sufficient yet for a reversal and very tough one year resistance at the current level. 1,250 to 1,150 still looks like the greater probability.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term:  Arithmetic target of 1,150 is outstanding. Log target of 1,390 has been passed. So there's a chance that the index could reverse at the current level.

Currency: none

14th August: No significant change since last week. The index is sitting on good long term support, but there is not enough volume to indicate a reversal of the long term bearish trend. Unless we see some impressive volume, chances are that the index will fall to 1,150

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term:  Arithmetic target of 1,150 is outstanding. Log target of 1,390 has been passed. So there's a chance that the index could reverse at the current level.

Currency: none

7th August: There is a small chance of a reversal at the current level, but so far, there is no volume to back it up. The fund chart shows a good support at the current level. But there's no reversal yet.

31st July: There's a small chance of a bottom at the current level, as the index has touched a good support. But patterns, both daily and weekly, point to 1,200, a target that is difficult to avoid.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term:  Arithmetic target of 1,150 is outstanding. Log target of 1,390 has been passed. So there's a chance that the index could reverse at the current level.

Currency: none

24th July: The next possible point of reversal is around 1,450. If that support fails, the next likely course is a fall to 1,200.

17th July: The index has been wiggling along in a side-ways pattern for a few weeks. A fall below 1,530 suggests further falls. The fund chart looks a little hopeful, suggesting a possible long term support not far away.

10th July: The index is vacillating. But the fund is clearly bearish. I don't see much chance of a reversal at the current level. But maybe at 1,425, on the long term support.

3rd July: The index is forming a short term top. If it breaks, we could see a renewed bout of falls. The fund has already broken a similar short term pattern. The currency has also failed long term support.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term:  Arithmetic target of 1,150 is outstanding. Log target of 1,390 has been passed. So there's a chance that the index could reverse at the current level.

Currency: none

26th June: The chances of a reversal at the current level are not good. A short term double top could see a bit of a plunge. 1,520 is the neckline for the top.

19th June: Still not the volume required to see a reversal at the current level. 1,575 is the crucial resistance. If it breaks on good volume, we could confirm a short term reversal. But there is no sign of it yet.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term:  Arithmetic target of 1,150 is outstanding. Log target of 1,390 has been passed. So there's a chance that the index could reverse at the current level.

Currency: with luck, a long term support has been touched and the trend is rising.

12th June: Not much change from last week. With luck, we will soon see a double bottom. If not, we should be prepared for a bottom at around 1,200.

5th June: The index has reached our long term log target of 1,390, and turned. There is a chance that the index could bottom at the current level. However, volume on the rally from the recent low was not impressive, reducing the chances of a reversal. We should therefore be prepared for a fall to 1,200.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term:  Arithmetic target of 1,200 is outstanding. Log target of 1,390 has been passed. So there's a chance that the index could reverse at the current level.

Currency: none

15th May: Still heading down. There's a good long term daily support approaching at 1,500. But there's no sign yet of a bottom.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term: a head and shoulders top points to 1,550 -  done.
Target of 1,200 is confirmed but the log target of 1,390 should be watched as a possible bottom.

Currency: could be falling to 42

8th May: The index needs to fall a bit more before hitting the next good long term support, which is somewhere around 1,500. But the long term weekly target of 1,200 is persuasive. We would therefore need to see good evidence of a bottom, interrupting the target of 1,200 before cancelling that target. If that is to happen, 1,500 would be a good place for it to do so. Check out the long term daily chart support in yellow.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term: a head and shoulders top points to 1,550 - now almost done.
Target of 1,200 is confirmed but the log target of 1,390 should be watched as a possible bottom.

Currency: could be falling to 42

1st May: Two supports broke last week: a daily chart support and a weekly support. Next good support is at around 1,500.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term: a head and shoulders top points to 1,550 - now almost done.
Target of 1,200 is confirmed but the log target of 1,390 should be watched as a possible bottom.

Currency: could be falling to 42

24th April: The index is still clinging to long term support. There is a small chance that the index will bottom at the current level. But the greater probability suggests further falls.

17th April: The index has found good support. There's a chance of a double bottom. If the current support fails, the greater likelihood is a fall to around 1,200.

25th March: Nothing much to write about this week. There is a small chance that the index could be making a bottom that might interrupt the fall to 1,390, or lower. But nothing significant has yet happened.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term: a head and shoulders top points to 1,550 - now highly probable.
Target of  1,200 is confirmed but the log target of 1,390 should be watched as a possible bottom.

Currency: could be falling to 42

20th March: No change to speak of. Next good support will be at around 1,450. The log target for our head and shoulders top would be the first possible place for a bottom.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term: a head and shoulders top points to 1,550 - now highly probable.
Target of  1,200 is confirmed but the log target of 1,390 should be watched as a possible bottom.

Currency: could be falling to 42

13th March: Leg support broke last week. The next stop on this journey south is the log target for our head and shoulders top at 1,390. With luck, a bottom will form at this level.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  double top points to 1,600, confirming the long term prediction.

Long term: a head and shoulders top points to 1,550 - now highly probable.
Target of  1,200 is confirmed but the log target of 1,390 should be watched as a possible bottom.

Currency: could be falling to 42

6th March: The index has found support at the current level. If this support fails, the top pointing to 1,200 will be confirmed.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  double top points to 1,600, confirming the long term prediction.

Long term: a head and shoulders top points to 1,550 - now highly probable.
Target of  1,200 is confirmed but the log target of 1,390 should be watched as a possible bottom.

Currency: could be falling to 42

28th February: The index fell below critical supports. The last ditch support is at 1,625. Thereafter, we may expect the target of 1,550, log target of 1,390 and arithmetic target of 1,200.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  double top points to 1,575, confirming the long term prediction.

Long term: a head and shoulders top points to 1,550 - now highly probable.
Target of  1,200 is confirmed but the log target of 1,390 should be watched as a possible bottom.

Currency: could be falling to 42

21st February: There is now an increasing probability that this market is headed for its previous bottom of 1,200. The weekly chart gives a clear prediction. But the daily chart breakout is not decisive. A fall below 1,800 will increase the probability.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  double top points to 1,575, confirming the long term prediction.

Long term: a head and shoulders top points to 1,550. This target is starting to look more likely.
The long term reverse head and shoulders pointing to 3,400 is cancelled. A pattern now points to 1,200, confirmed if the index falls below 1,760.

Currency: could be falling to 42

14th February: The short term does not yet hold any clear signals. Best to keep an eye on the long term, where the index is clinging nicely to support.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  a head and shoulders top points to 1,550. But I would not confirm this target unless the index falls below 1,900, due to the strength of the Asian region.

Long term:  A long term reverse head and shoulders points to 3,400 - still valid.

Currency: none
 

7th February: The index turned on the long term support of our scenario pointing to 4,000. With luck, the current support will hold and the index will make a medium term bottom with neckline around 2,200.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  a head and shoulders top points to 1,550. But I would not confirm this target unless the index falls below 1,900, due to the strength of the Asian region.

Long term:  A long term reverse head and shoulders points to 3,400 - still valid.

Currency: none

31st January: The index is still behaving bearishly. The support around 1,900 is now critical. Below this level, we could see greater falls, even as low as 1,200.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  a head and shoulders top points to 1,550. But I would not confirm this target unless the index falls below 1,900, due to the strength of the Asian region.

Long term:  A long term reverse head and shoulders points to 3,400 - still valid.

Currency: none

10th January: The market is drifting about. Volume is not persuasive in the short term. However, the long term still looks encouraging. We now have a turn on the neckline of a double bottom on the long term weekly chart, with target of 3,400. That target inspires confidence, as well as the likelihood that the market will not get left behind the rest of the region. However, we need to see some good volume.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term:  a head and shoulders top points to 1,550. But I would not confirm this target unless the index falls below 1,900, due to the strength of the Asian region.

Long term:  A long term reverse head and shoulders points to 3,400. A turn on neckline confirms the pattern and the target.

Currency: none


History  from 1996 to 1999


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