History of Singapore Straits Times Index
2009

8th June:The index has reached our bottom target. Next resistance at around 2,800.

1st June: The index has broken out of a long term resistance shown in the first chart. It is highly likely that the long term bear trend has reversed. The long term weekly chart supports that conclusion.

Current target

Short term: double bottom points to 2,400 (daily)

11th May: The index has rallied near to target on the daily chart and has reached target on the weekly chart. Long term bearish resistance is still in tact. The issue now is whether the index has made a sufficiently large bottom to reverse the long term bearish trend or whether we will see another fall and retesting of the lows of March. The regional trend should be the best guide. Keep an eye on Hongkong.

Current target

Short term: double bottom points to 2,200 (weekly) - done

2nd May: The weekly chart shows a double bottom with breakout and target of 2,200. More volume needed on the daily chart.

13th April: Much more volume needed if we are to be persuaded by the bottom currently forming.

23rd March: Several bottoming scenarios this week. The long term log chart gives good hope for a 'bottoming now' scenario. The new recent low touched good support on that chart nicely. The first chart shows a small bottom which could reverse the current bear trend.  If we are to see a bottom in the next few weeks or months we should see a surge in volume and a breakout from 2,000 on strong volume.

16th March: The index has made a new low, which is bearish. But there is good support on the weekly chart at around 1,350.

9th March: The index has made a new low, which is bearish. But there is good support on the weekly chart at around 1,350.

2nd March: The index is testing lows of last year. If the support in the first chart fails, consider the long term scenario in the second chart, with bottom taking a year. I would consider the second scenario more likely.

23rd February: A nice bottom in the first chart is too small and volume is too tiny to hope for a reversal any time soon at the current level.

2nd February: A nice bottom in the first chart is too small and volume is too tiny to hope for a reversal any time soon at the current level.

2008
22nd December:  The long term chart shows support at 1,600. But bottoming would require months to form. We're still in the 'plunge' stage.

23rd November:  Good long term support on the weekly chart at 1,600.

27th October:  The index is approaching good support on the long term logarithmic chart.

20th October:  The index continued its freefall over the last ten days. No good support nearby.

6th October:  The index has reached log target for our tops in the daily and weekly charts and passed arithmetic target on the weekly chart. But there is nothing to suggest that the bearish trend has reversed. We must now wait however long it takes for the index to find a bottom.

20th September:  The index has reached log target for our tops in the daily and weekly charts. But there is nothing to suggest that the bearish trend has reversed.

25th August:  More bearish evidence as the index makes a lower low, both on the daily and weekly charts.

18th August:  Not much change in the last couple of weeks. The daily chart is retesting previous lows. But the weekly chart has made a new low. The ETF chart gives the appearance that the bear market is just beginning. But appearances often deceive in this game.

4th August:  The index is holding on good long term support. If it fails, consider the top target of 2,400.

28th July:  A little turn last week suggests that the index is still in bull mode.

21st July:  Last week's comment holds: Still some very good supports which could easily keep the index in bull mode. 2,800 is the clearest turning point. A fall below that level could see a fall back to 1,900. However, for the moment, the index is still treading water.

14th July:  Last week's comment holds: Still some very good supports which could easily keep the index in bull mode. 2,800 is the clearest turning point. A fall below that level could see a fall back to 1,900. However, for the moment, the index is still treading water.

7th July:  Still some very good supports which could easily keep the index in bull mode. 2,800 is the clearest turning point. A fall below that level could see a fall back to 1,900. However, for the moment, the index is still treading water.

30th June:  Still some very good supports which could easily keep the index in bull mode. 2,800 is the clearest turning point. A fall below that level could see a fall back to 1,900. However, for the moment, the index is still treading water.

12th May:  The index has shrugged off bearish concerns and is now looking more bullish, especially on the long term ETF chart.

5th May:  Ambiguity is now resolving in favour of bullish continuation. The ETF chart (last below) is the prevailing indicator. It shows breakout from a long term bottom and turn on good double support. This bullish signal easily explains the cancellation of the top on the weekly chart.

28th April:  Ambiguity in the index charts. But the EWS fund chart gives a very clear long term bullish picture. The ambiguity could take a few months to resolve.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double top (daily) points to 2,400 (log), 2,200 (arithmetic) - unconfirmed

Long term: double top (weekly) log target 2,540; arithmetic 2,400 - confirmed by pullback and turn

Currency: none

21st April:  Ambiguity in the index charts. But the EWS fund chart gives a very clear long term bullish picture. The ambiguity could take a few months to resolve.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double top (daily) points to 2,400 (log), 2,200 (arithmetic) - unconfirmed

Long term: double top (weekly) log target 2,540; arithmetic 2,400 - confirmed by pullback and turn

Currency: none

14th April:  Cancellation of the top and consolidation on support is the prevailing outlook for the moment. See the EWS chart for the most bullish interpretation of the current situation.

14th April:  Cancellation of the top and consolidation on support is the prevailing outlook for the moment. See the EWS chart for the most bullish interpretation of the current situation.

7th April:  The top is tentatively cancelled, leaving the turn on long term support as the prevailing indicator. Both the long term index and the fund chart, EWS, show the recent bear market as a mere pullback to a long term double bottom. According to these scenarios, the market has bottomed. Let's see if the situation holds over the next few weeks.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double top (daily) points to 2,400 (log), 2,200 (arithmetic) - unconfirmed

Long term: double top (weekly) log target 2,540; arithmetic 2,400 - confirmed by pullback and turn

Currency: none

31st March:  Quite a few conflicting signals. On the one hand, the weekly chart shows a clear double top with bearish target. The top is confirmed and looks highly likely. On the other hand, the fund chart EWS looks well supported and highly bullish. The current weakness is a mere pullback to a long term bottom. Probably the best thing to look at is the support at around 2,800 on the first three charts. If that support fails, the bearish trend can be confirmed.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double top (daily) points to 2,400 (log), 2,200 (arithmetic) - unconfirmed

Long term: double top (weekly) log target 2,540; arithmetic 2,400 - confirmed by pullback and turn

Currency: none

24th March:  The support at 2,800 is still holding. But the top on the weekly chart looks persuasive.

10th March:  The outlook is still ambiguous. The index charts show a top not yet confirmed. The fund charts shows good support. I would suggest looking first at the weekly chart. The index has clearly broken out of a top pointing to 2,500 on the weekly chart. It has pulled back to the neckline and turned. That should be enough to confirm it. The last hope would be the trend support which is currently being tested. If it fails, with a close next Friday at 2,800, we should presume bearish target confirmed. The greater probability is that the index will fall to 2,500 at least and a bear trend is underway. Supports as low as 2,200.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double top (weekly) log target 2,540; arithmetic 2,400

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 1.38 - done

3rd March:  The index has broken out of a double top that points to at least 2,550 or thereabouts. The first chart shows good support. However, the greater probability is that we will see target over the next few months.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double top (weekly) log target 2,540; arithmetic 2,400

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 1.38 - done

21st January:  The index is now perched on the cusp of a double top. A fall to 2,800 would likely trigger a fall to 2,400 at least. Support could be as low as 2,200. The ETF fund chart shows a bullish scenario, provided the index rallies from the current level. Another few weeks should sort out the uncertainty.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: none for the index. But see the fund chart for a long term bullish scenario

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 1.38

14th January:  The index is testing an important medium term support. Failure could be the start of a major top. The long term log chart shows strong resistance. But it also shows a breakout from a 13 year resistance. True enough, we had a breakout in 2000 that failed and led to a nasty long term bear market. Is it different this time? Let's wait and see. One very bullish long term scenario is shown by the EWS etf chart. But this is a very long term chart. A lot could happen in the next year or two.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: none for the index. But see the fund chart for a long term bullish scenario

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 1.38

14th January: Confusing picture: a top on the index chart but good support on the ETF chart. The top is difficult to ignore. A fall below 8,200 would suggest even more danger of a fall, at least to 7,000.

7th January:  A topping pattern in the first chart and a strong resistance on the 14 year chart give cause for concern. However, there is no cause to prepare for a major reversal until the support in the first chart breaks.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 1.38



2007
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

14th May:  Breakout from the long term resistance on the weekly chart is highly bullish. There are no clear resistances now. We can only presume the bull will continue until there is a clear top.

23rd April:  The index has turned on a medium term resistance in the first chart. But we cannot draw much significance from that fact. We'll have to wait and see what happens.

 
 
 
 

19th February: The index is testing long term resistance on the daily chart (second chart below). If that resistance passes, the next test would be at around 3,400 to 3,500.

12th February: The index is testing long term resistance on the daily chart (second chart below). If that resistance passes, the next test would be at around 3,400 to 3,500.

29th January: Long term resistance is approaching. Given the clear definition of the long term channel in that chart, and given the almost unrelenting advance of the index since August last year, I would be surprised if the resistance did not operate to at least slow down the pace for a few months and perhaps even turn the long term trend.

22nd January: Long term resistance in the second chart gives reason for caution. However, breakout from the ETF fund chart suggests that the market could have broken out of a period of consolidation, with resistance 10% away.

15th January: A very narrow long term channel in yellow in the first chart. Long term resistance approaches in the daily chart. But the ETF chart shows plenty of upside, if the long term double bottom is to be given credence.

8th January: Long term resistance approaches in the daily chart. But the ETF chart shows plenty of upside, if the long term double bottom is to be given credence.


11th December: The index is moving in a well-defined short term channel. Let's see how long it lasts.

4th December: Resistance at the current level on the index chart. However, the ETF fund chart suggests that the bull market has a long way to go.

20th November: The next resistance is nearby at 2,900. Long term resistance at 3,200 has a good chance of being tested next year.

13th November: The fund chart shows a 25% upside. The trend is clearly bullish until a reversal takes place.

6th November: The index has turned on a two year channel resistance. Could be about to top. But no signs of topping yet. A breakout upside, given the bullish mood of the moment, would not surprise.

16th October: The index is now retesting the May high. Danger is a double top, as shown in the first chart. A breakout upside would indicate a continuation of the current bull trend.
 
 
19th June: Possible support at the current level. But no sign of a bottom.

12th June: The index has failed a key channel support. Now what?

5th June: Nothing very clear to go on, beyond a few supports and resistances.

22nd May: The index has turned on long term resistance. But there is no sign of a top yet.

20th February: A topping scenario in the first chart. No reason to get bearish. However, the long term resistance in the ETF chart (fifth below) has yet to break. I guess that would be the most important long term indicator at the moment.
 

Current prediction

Short term: double bottom points to 2,520

13th February: A tiny top scenario in the first chart. But good volume and a bottom in the second chart give the index a good chance of rallying to 2,520. Long term resistance is at 2,700.

Current prediction

Short term: double bottom points to 2,520

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency: none
 

6th February: Possible top in the first chart. But the new high on good volume could just as well be bullish.

Current prediction

Short term: double bottom points to 2,520

30th January: Nice turn on neckline in the first chart and an encouraging breakout from the ETF fund chart.

Current prediction

Short term: double bottom points to 2,520

23rd January: The short term is still bullish, as shown in the first chart. Otherwise, still a bunch of resistances to overcome.

Current prediction

Short term: double bottom points to 2,520

9th January: Breakout from the medium term pattern in the first chart and breakout from the long term pattern in the fund chart suggest that the market is about to rally. Resistance on the weekly chart and EWS will soon, with luck, be broken.

Current prediction

Short term: double top points to 2,130 - still valid but questionable

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency: none



2005

19th December: Much the same as last week. The resistance in the first chart, in pink, is the defining obstacle.

Current prediction

Short term: double top points to 2,130 - still valid but questionable

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency: none

12th December: Resistance approaching, as shown in the first chart, at 2,350. If this resistance fails to break, a range till end of January of 2,250 to 2,350 would be likely. But this is just guesswork. Until the resistance in the first chart breaks, there is no clear indication of direction.

Current prediction

Short term: double top points to 2,130 - still valid but questionable

5th December: Waiting for a breakout above 2,400. Nothing much to report until that happens, or until the index drops below support at around 2,200.

Current prediction

Short term: double top points to 2,130 - still valid but questionable

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency: none

28th November: The index has cancelled a bearish top and is supported in a long term rising channel, probably consolidating before the next rally.

Current prediction

Short term: double top points to 2,130 - still valid but questionable

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency: none

21st November: The little top pointing to 2,130 is almost cancelled. Resistances in the second chart are still an obstacle.

Current prediction

Short term: double top points to 2,130 - still valid but questionable

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency: none

14th November: The index has barely moved since last week. The most encouraging indicator is the NYSE Exchange Traded Fund, EWS, which appears to be making a large double bottom, with good volume.

Current prediction

Short term: double top points to 2,130 - still valid but questionable

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency: none

7th November: Possible interruption to the recent bearish spate and a turn on a newly defined channel.

Current prediction

Short term: double top points to 2,130 - still valid but questionable

31st October: The index is bearish and a fall to 2,000 would not surprise. But the Singapore ETF, EWS, has good support nearby and has a bullish long term scenario.

Current prediction

Short term: double top points to 2,130

Medium term: none

Long term: none

17th October: Index is well supported but there is strong resistance. Something has to give. A fall to 2,290 would increase the chances of the top in the first chart. However, high recent volume suggests that the index is not ripe for topping. We shall have to wait and see.

10th October A top scenario in the first chart. But no sign that the index is topping, despite the proximity of strong resistance.

26th September: Resistance is likely to be strong up to 2,500. Possible top in the first chart. But the high volume in the last week or two suggests that the index is unlikely to reverse. No clear indicator.

19th September: Still waiting for action. The short term pattern still offers hope.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (daily) points to 2,400

12th September: The market is well poised on long term support. Now it needs a good rally.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (daily) points to 2,400

5th September: Good support in the first chart gives good hope for more uspide. But there are strong long term resistances to be broken.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (daily) points to 2,400

Currency: none

29th August: Resistance everywhere, until we see a close at around 2,500.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (daily) points to 2,400

22nd August: Resistance is still compelling. Support in the first chart.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (daily) points to 2,400

8th August:  The index is very close to our target. Close enough to discount the target. Now we should be keeping an eye on long term resistance and looking out for topping patterns.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (daily) points to 2,400

Currency: none

1st August: The index has almost reached target at 2,400. Resistance touched in the very long term daily chart. What next? Can't say.

25th July: The index is heading for target at 2,400. There is one obstacle at around 2,350 on the long term daily chart. We could see interruption there.  But good recent volume suggests that target is more likely.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (daily) points to 2,400

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 1.48

20th July: The index is moving nicely to target, as expected. But there is strong resistance at 2,350, or thereabouts.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (daily) points to 2,400

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 1.48

11th July:  The index is sitting nicely. But the strong resistance is likely to kick in at 2,300 on the long term daily chart.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (daily) points to 2,400

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 1.48

27th June: More consolidation on the ascending support in all the charts. The weekly chart looks particularly promising.

Current Prediction:

Short term: none

Medium: none

Long term: l. grey pattern pointing to 2,350
                   2. double bottom points to 2,800 - not confirmed
                   3. double bottom points to 2,300 (weekly)

Currency: double top points to 56.5

27th June:  Nice consolidation in the first long term daily chart. But the fund chart shows a big resistance approaching. Resistance also up to 2,350 on the very long term daily chart.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (daily) points to 2,400

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 1.48

20th June: Very slight movement last week. Consolidation on the daily chart and resistance approaching on the fund chart.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (daily) points to 2,400

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 1.48

13th June: Breakout from resistance in the first chart and the weekly. But possible resistance in the long term chart (second chart) and strong resistance on the fund chart. 2,300 looks likely on the weekly chart and possibly higher on the first chart.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (daily) points to 2,400

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 1.48

6th June: The index broke out of a short term resistance last week. The breakout is marginal. If it holds, the breakout would support our target of 2,400.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (daily) points to 2,400

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 1.48

21st May: The index is in a protracted rectangle mode. We need to see a close at 2,200 or a fall below 2,100 to break the rectangle.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (daily) points to 2,400

16th May:  The index is trapped in a rectangle, shown in the first chart. Only a break above 2,200 or a fall below 2,100 would end the ambiguity. In the meantime, the long term daily target must be presumed to be valid.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (daily) points to 2,400

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 1.48

25th April: The double support in the second chart, yellow and green, is the important indicator for the index. If these supports break, our target of 2,400 will be in danger of failure. A close above the recent high - say, at 2,200 - would set the index back on track for 2,400.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (daily) points to 2,400

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 1.48

18th April: The index has touched a support in the first chart. Support thereafter, if the current support breaks, is at 5,600.

Current Prediction

Short term:

Medium term:

Long term:  reverse head and shoulders points to 7,000 - not yet confirmed

Currency: bottom points to around 30.6

18th April: A fall below 2,120 would trigger the top in the first chart below.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (daily) points to 2,400

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 1.48

11th April: Target of 2,400 is still valid and the greater probability. However, a fall through 2,120 would signal a medium term bear trend.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (daily) points to 2,400

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 1.48

4th April: Good support at the current level on the second chart. But danger of a top in the first chart.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (daily) points to 2,400

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 1.48

21st March: Short term topping danger in the index and the fund chart.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (daily) points to 2,400

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 1.48

14th March: Good prediction of 2,400. But very strong resistance at 2,300.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (daily) points to 2,400

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 1.59

8th March: The index has consolidated nicely on a support at 2,150. It is now likely to proceed to target at 2,300 to 2,400. But there is strong long term resistance at 2,300.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (daily) points to 2,400

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 1.59

21st February: Major resistance at 2,300 but target of 2,400 on the daily chart has a good chance, suggesting that resistance at 2,300 will not reverse the current trend.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (daily) points to 2,400

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 1.59

14th February: The index has broken out of resistance such that the target of 2,400 is now confirmed. But note the lower target of 2,300 on the weekly chart. Currency could strengthen significantly.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (daily) points to 2,400

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 1.59

31st January: Strong resistance at the current level, after which, we should see a clean run to 2,400.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (daily and weekly) points to 2,400

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 1.59

17th January: Resistance on the index chart and a big long term double bottom on the fund chart.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (daily and weekly) points to 2,400

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 1.59

10th January: Important resistance in the first chart. Otherwise, expect target this year.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (daily and weekly) points to 2,400

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 1.59
 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2004
20th December: No change to speak of. Better to wait for the new year.
Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (daily and weekly) points to 2,400

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 1.59

13th December: A short term to should not give cause for concern.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (daily and weekly) points to 2,400

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 1.59

6th December: The index has made a new four year high with a gap - bullish. Next resistance at 2,150.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (daily and weekly) points to 2,400

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 1.59

20th November: Much the same as last week. Nothing exciting to report.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (daily and weekly) points to 2,400

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 1.59

15th November: Resistances are being broken and currency is strengthening. Chances of 2,400 are good.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (daily and weekly) points to 2,400

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 1.59

25th October: Good support in the second chart and strengthening currency give hope for a bullish outlook.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (daily and weekly) points to 2,400

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 1.59

18th October: Long term support on the neckline of the long term double bottom, at around 1,920, should save the index from falling much further

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (daily and weekly) points to 2,400

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 1.59

11th October: Good breakout on the very long term daily chart, fairly good volume and a nice pattern on the weekly chart all combine to give a very positive outlook over the next several months.

4th October: Strong resistance at 2,050 on the weekly chart and 2,000 on the daily chart.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (daily and weekly) points to 2,400

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 1.59

20th September: Excellent breakout on all charts suggests that the index has a good chance of reaching 2,400 in the next few months.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (daily and weekly) points to 2,400

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 1.59

4th September: The index is still testing long term resistance. A close just under 2,000 would be decisive if accompanied by a surge of volume. Good chance now that the region has a bit of dynamism: see the Asian regional chart.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (daily and weekly) points to 2,400

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 1.59

30th August: The index is taking its time. There are strong resistances operating in the second and third charts. Even though we have an excellent double bottom pattern, the index will probably wait until the region rallies as whole, before breaking the strong resistances.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (daily and weekly) points to 2,400

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 1.59

23rd August: Long term resistance in the first chart is the major obstacle. We'll just have to be patient and amuse ourselves with other things until the index decides it's time to wake up.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (daily and weekly) points to 2,400

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 1.59

9th August: A nice breakout from two strong resistances in the daily chart adds to the probability that the index is heading to target of 2,400. However, there is strong resistance on the long term daily chart. This must be overcome before the index can proceed further.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (daily and weekly) points to 2,400

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 1.59

2nd August: The short term top in the first chart is cancelled. But it is still testing strong resistance in the second chart.

Current prediction

Short term: double top points to 1,815 - cancelled

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (daily and weekly) points to 2,400

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 1.59

26th July: A short term top in the first chart has merely short term significance. Resistances in the third chart, at around 1,950, are the major obstacle.

Current prediction

Short term: double top points to 1,815

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (daily and weekly) points to 2,400

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 1.59

12th July: The index is testing strong resistances around the 1,900 level. If they break and if volume increases, we could see a strong rally and target of 2,400 would become a high probability.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (daily and weekly) points to 2,400

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 1.59

28th June: Nothing new. Back to your golf.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (daily and weekly) points to 2,400

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 1.59

31st May: Double bottom on the daily chart still has a chance provided a bottom forms at the current level. But the weekly chart gives a clear bullish picture. A close above 1,900 would confirm the target of 2,400.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (daily and weekly) points to 2,400

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 1.59

10th May: Still waiting either for a confirmation or a cancellation of the long term double bottom.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (daily and weekly) points to 2,400

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 1.59

3rd May: The index could fall to as low as 1,680 without cancelling the bullish prediction of 2,400.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (daily and weekly) points to 2,400

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 1.59

26th April: Nothing exciting on the index or the fund chart.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (daily and weekly) points to 2,400

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 1.59

19th April: Yet another teasing top scenario. But the long term pattern should prevail.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (daily and weekly) points to 2,400

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 1.59

12th April: The medium term shows a top danger. But priority should be given to the long term, which shows a turn on neckline support and the greater probability of a rally to target of 2,400 in the coming months.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (daily and weekly) points to 2,400

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 1.59

29th March: The index is testing the neckline of our double bottom. However, if the index is to follow the regional trend, we could soon see the double top threat dissipate. Strong resistance up to around 2,200.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (daily and weekly) points to 2,400

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 1.59

15th March: A double top scenario in the first chart threatens to take the index lower. Breakout would require a close at around 810. The long term pattern in the second chart remains valid provided the index stays above the 1,760 - 1,770 support. It is an excellent pattern and deserves the benefit of the doubt.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (daily and weekly) points to 2,400

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 1.59

8th March: The index barely moved last week. Resistance in the second chart is still the operative force. Currency is looking for support on the neckline of its reversal pattern at around 1.72.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (daily and weekly) points to 2,400

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 1.59

1st March: A sleepy week: the index ended close to where it started the week. Resistance in the second chart is the barrier to watch.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (daily and weekly) points to 2,400

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 1.59

23rd February: Index is meandering. Currency is looking strong.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (daily and weekly) points to 2,400

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 1.59

16th February: Nothing exciting. The first chart is the most important. We are waiting for the market to get going.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (daily and weekly) points to 2,400

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 1.59

9th February: The index is consolidating on the neckline of our reversal pattern. Once the long term resistance in the second chart breaks, we should see the index rally more impressively.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (daily and weekly) points to 2,400

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 1.59

26th January: Waiting for lift-off, now that the index has broken the long term double bottom.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (daily and weekly) points to 2,400

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 1.59

19th January: The index has consolidated above the neckline of our bottom pointing to 2,400. All indications are in favour of target.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (daily and weekly) points to 2,400

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 1.59

12th January: A long term double bottom has broken with excellent volume, giving a target of 2,400, with possible interruption at 2,200. I would expect the index to go much higher this year. 2,900 would not be unthinkable.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (daily and weekly) points to 2,400

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 1.59
 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2003
29th December: Still waiting for the big one to break - at about 1,850.

1st December: We have a confirmed short term target. But in a bull market, such small tops can easily be overturned.

Current prediction

Short term: double top points to 1,580

24th November: A short term top points to 1,580. But support in the second chart is still holding.

Current prediction

Short term: double top points to 1,580

10th November: The index tested the neckline of the double bottom in the second chart. Still no breakout. A close at 1,870 or higher would be sufficient.

3rd November: No significant change to the long term picture. We are now waiting g for the long term bottom to break. A close at 1,900 would do fine.

27th October: The index tested and turned at the resistance marking the neckline of a double bottom scenario, the breakout from which would herald the commencement of a new phase in the bull market. We now have two scenarios: first, we could see the index rally above the double bottom neckline in the next week or two, giving an immediate target of 2,500 or thereabouts. Otherwise, a fall to support, somewhere in the 1,600 region and hesitation for, perhaps a few months before breakout. This is all guesswork. But breakout and confirmation of a new target is more likely than a top and fall back to 1,300 level. Could be some teasing times ahead.

20th October: Waiting for a breakout from the long term bottom. Neckline at 1,850. Volume is excellent.

13th October: The index is inching higher on excellent turnover. A breakout from 1,850 would give a target of 2,500. But there is strong resistance on the long term chart at 1,850 to 2,000. Volume is sufficient to inspire hope.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double bottom points to 1,700 - done

6th October: Target of 1,700 is nearly met. After that, we would be looking at a double bottom with neckline around 1,860 and target of 2,500, or thereabouts. Volume has started to pick up such that we may now start getting hopeful of the new target.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double bottom points to 1,700

22nd September: Volume continues to build but the index is still stagnant. I would expect some excitement in the next few weeks. Target of 1,700 is a very good chance.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double bottom points to 1,700

15th September: The index is still more likely than not to reach target of 1,700. Volume in the first chart shows a steady increase from May this year and the index is rising in a clearly defined channel. But for the longer term, we would need to see the index rally to 1,850 on volume exceeding S$1billion per day.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double bottom points to 1,700

8th September: The index is still unambiguously bullish. Last week saw a pullback to support and turn. Perhaps this week will bring something more exciting.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double bottom points to 1,700

1st September: 1,700 is now a very good chance. After that, there would be a good chance that the index will make a larger bottom, pointing to around 2,400 or higher.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double bottom points to 1,700

Long term: none

Currency: none

18th August: The index is looking very strong. Volume is building consistently - one of the requirements for a sustainable rally. Chances of 1,700 in the next few weeks is high. The fund has almost broken out of a long term double bottom, adding evidence to the bullish trend of the index.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double bottom points to 1,700

11th August: The index broke out of a short term top. But it appears to have satisfied the target for the top without breaking the rising channel that defines the current bull trend for the index. So long as volume is good and the channel remains intact, we may presume the target of 1,700.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double bottom points to 1,700

4th August: The index still looks very promising. However, there is a slight cloud on the horizon, in the form of a little double top scenario. A fall below 1,540 would put the bull on hold for a while. A rally above 1,600 should see the index rally swiftly to 1,700.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double bottom points to 1,700

28th July: Not a lot going on. The index is testing a couple of supports and resistances, as shown in the first chart. Target of 1,700 should be easily achieved if the resistance just above 1,600 breaks.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double bottom points to 1,700

21st July: Excellent volume gives an excellent chance for the bottom pointing to 1,700. After that, a larger pattern could break out at around 1,800. The fund chart mirrors the second, larger, pattern of the index and is about to break out.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double bottom points to 1,700

5th July: The index has made a bottom pointing to 1,700. Resistance at 1,600. But good chance of target if volume remains strong.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double bottom points to 1,700

30th June: Volume still excellent, we may expect the index to reach 1,660 within a few weeks.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double bottom points to 1,700

16th June: Our medium term target is now done. We have no new targets yet. However, volume is still good and there are no resistances nearby or signs of topping.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double bottom points to 1,480 - done

9th June: On target for 1,480 and then, if volume remains good, we can hope for 1,800.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double bottom points to 1,480

Long term: none

Currency: none

2nd June: The index has broken out of a double bottom pointing to 1,480. Strictly speaking, a double bottom should be confirmed by a pullback to the neckline and turn and it should pass the next resistance parallel to the neckline (the "leg"). However, the volume pattern for this market is good enough to minimize doubts. Confirmation would only improve the picture.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double bottom points to 1,480

26th May: Both the index and the currency are poised for breakout. Volume is still encouraging. A close at around 1,350 or higher, on turnover of S$700 million, or more, would be the signal.

19th May: We are waiting for a breakout with a close at around 1,360. If that happens on good volume, we will have cause for hope.

12th May: A short to medium term bottom is supported by gradually increasing volume. A breakout would give good reason to assume that the index has turned the corner.

28th April: .The next important test is the previous recent low at around 1,200.

18th April: Good recent volume gives hope for a bottom at the current level. But it's still too early to say.

29th March: Fairly good volume last two weeks gives hope for a short term reversal.

24th March: The first chart shows a nice bottom scenario. Volume last week was impressive. Next obstacle is the resistance at around 1,350.

17th March: The index is retesting the previous recent low. There is also good long term support in the second chart.

10th March: The index is retesting the support at around 1,250. Let's see if it holds. My guess is that it won't.

3rd March: The index is retesting an important support. We shall have to wait and see whether it bottoms or whether the support fails.

24th  February: The index is at support at 1,300 and close to another support at around 1,250. Hope for a bottom at this level, although it's still too early to tell. Good news is that the fund triangle, pointing down about %10, is cancelled.

10th  February: The index is heading for support at around the 1,200 to 1,250 range. If this support fails, the next good support would be around 1,000.

3rd February: The index looks like it is heading towards support at 1,250. Currency has hit resistance, but if it break 1.71, we could see further strengthening.

27th January: If the index is bottoming, we should likely see a retesting of support at around 1,320. A fall to 1,250 would not surprise.

13th January: The index has medium and long term bottom hopes, provided we don't see a fall below 1,250. A rally above 1,380 on good volume would be the first indicator.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency: none
 
 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2002
23rd December: A pleasantly tranquil week last week. The scenario in the first chart still holds.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency: none

16th December: Still the chance of a double bottom at 1,350. If the support at that level fails, we should expect a retesting of the recent low at around 1,240.

9th December: The index appears to be retesting the 1,350 level. At that point, we could see a little double bottom. But it's just a hope at the moment.

2nd December: Good recent volume gives hope for a bottom at the current level. But it could also, just as easily, fizzle. We shall have to wait and see.

18th November: We have a nice bottom scenario for the index and the fund. But we'll have to wait and see if it happens.

Current prediction

Short term: double top points to 1,405- done

11th November: The index spent last week falling. Looks like it has further to fall in the short term. Possible double bottom in the second chart.

Current prediction

Short term: double top points to 1,405

2nd November: The short term is weak. The index is likely to retest support at around 1,350. Chance for a long term bottom at that level. But we could be waiting a few months before anything exciting happens.

Current prediction

Short term: double top points to 1,405

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency: none

28th October: Chance of a bottom at the current level. Be we would need to see daily turnover of greater than 600 million Sing dollars for a few days on breakout, in order to be persuaded. The downside would be a retesting of support at 1,350, or lower.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency: double top points to 1.82 - cancelled

19th October: The rally was week was moderately impressive. But the scenario in the second chart dispels any hope for a rally much beyond 1,550 in the next few months.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency: double top points to 1.82

12th October: No major change to the long term picture, despite the rally last week.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency: double top points to 1.82

7th October: The index is pausing on a support. Next good support is 1,220, which we may expect in the absence of a reversal pattern.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency: double top points to 1.82

30th September: A weak support at the current level. But nothing to suggest that the index will bottom at the current level.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency: double top points to 1.82

16th September: No supports, no sign of a bottom.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency: short term double top points to 1.775

9th September: The next good support is at around 1,250. There is nothing to suggest that the index will fall to that level, except the fact that the trend is down.

2nd September: No change to speak of. There are still a few good bottom scenarios, but nothing to confirm them.

26th August: The fund chart is the most encouraging indicator. Currency also gives cause for hope.

19th August: A possible short term reversal at 1,440 and cancellation of the fund top are both bullish for the short term. But the medium term still looks bearish.

12th August: A long term double bottom, with a fall to around 1,250, is now a probable scenario. The fund chart supports this scenario.

Current prediction

Short term: double top (daily) points to 1,480 - done

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency: none

22nd July: A double bottom, retesting last September's low, is a credible scenario, although we have no prediction that takes the index that far. Possible support on the long term daily chart. The double top, in the first chart, is the clearest indicator, and suggests that the medium term trend is bearish. Only a close at 1,690 would change that.

Current prediction

Short term: double top (daily) points to 1,480 - now questionable

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency: none

15th July: The index does not appear to offer much in the way of a plausible medium term reversal scenario. The more like scenario would be a double bottom, retesting 1,200. But the fund chart offers more hope. Support at 1,550 is important.

Current prediction

Short term: double top (daily) points to 1,480 - now questionable

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency: none

8th July: Nothing much going on. Short term top is now dubious. A bit of resistance at 1,670. A nice scenario building in the fund chart.

Current prediction

Short term: double top (daily) points to 1,480 - now questionable

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency: none

1st July: We are now waiting for a bottom. No sign yet. Meanwhile, currency has broken a long term resistance and looks likely to head for 1.74.

Current prediction

Short term: double top (daily) points to 1,480

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency: none

24th June: The index appears to in free-fall with nothing much to hold it before 1,350. But the fund chart gives a long term scenario that is more hopeful.

Current prediction

Short term: weekly double top pointing to 1,550 - done; double top (daily) points to 1,500.

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency: none

10th June: The weekly chart points to 1,550. At this level, our long term reversal hope on the daily chart would be somewhat distorted. We shall have to wait and see.

Current prediction

Short term: weekly double top pointing to 1,550

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency: none

3rd June: The index is on a medium term support. Provided it stays above this support, prospects for a bullish reversal pattern, in a month or two, are good. The alternative is a fall back to one of the supports in the long term daily chart.

Current prediction

Short term:  none

Medium term: none

Long term:  head and shoulders top (daily chart) points to somewhere  between 1,200 and 1,250 (log- done) and 930 (arithmetic) - unlikely.

Currency: none

27th May: Nothing exciting in this market - just drifting sideways. Another month or two of drifting would not be a bad thing so long as volume remains solid. In order to get a nice, symmetrical reversal pattern, we should not see any great rally until July or August. The later the better.

Current prediction

Short term:  none

Medium term: none

Long term:  head and shoulders top (daily chart) points to somewhere  between 1,200 and 1,250 (log- done) and 930 (arithmetic) - unlikely.

Currency: none

13th May: The short term is looking a bit bearish. But that could also be wishful thinking. The index needs another month or two of sideways motion before it would be ripe for a good long term reversal.

Current prediction

Short term:  none

Medium term: none

Long term:  head and shoulders top (daily chart) points to somewhere  between 1,200 and 1,250 (log- done) and 930 (arithmetic) - unlikely.

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 1.78

6th May: No change. We now want a breakout from our reversal pattern, which would require a close higher than 1,900 on a strong surge of volume. We could then hope for a target of around 2,450.

Current prediction

Short term:  none

Medium term: none

Long term:  head and shoulders top (daily chart) points to somewhere  between 1,200 and 1,250 (log- done) and 930 (arithmetic) - unlikely.

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 1.78

28th April: The index is not giving any indication as to direction. But currency appears to have bottomed and has a clear prediction of 1.78.

Current prediction

Short term:  none

Medium term: reverse head and shoulders points to 2,100 - not a good pattern, but volume is good.

Long term:  head and shoulders top (daily chart) points to somewhere  between 1,200 and 1,250 (log- done) and 930 (arithmetic) - unlikely.

Currency: reverse head and shoulders points to 1.78

21st April: The index is possibly making a reversal pattern. We would need a close at 1,900 on strong volume to complete the pattern and volume would need to be big. Currency has a chance of bottoming.

Current prediction

Short term:  none

Medium term: reverse head and shoulders points to 2,100 - not a good pattern, but volume is good.

Long term:  head and shoulders top (daily chart) points to somewhere  between 1,200 and 1,250 (log- done) and 930 (arithmetic) - unlikely.

Currency: none

8th April: Nothing much going on in this market. Time for another holiday.

31st March: A case of no news is good news. A bit of meandering over the last couple of weeks on fairly strong volume is encouraging. But the fund chart suggests meandering could continue until the middle of the year.

9th March: The market is offering three bullish signals: first, strong volume. Last week's was impressive. Secondly, there is a nice breakout on the weekly chart, suggesting that the index will soon rally to the 2,000 level or higher. Thirdly, currency is probably bottoming.

Current prediction

Short term:  none

Medium term: reverse head and shoulders points to 2,110 - not a good pattern, but volume is good.

Long term:  head and shoulders top (daily chart) points to somewhere  between 1,200 and 1,250 (log- done) and 930 (arithmetic).

2. double top pointing to

1,250 (log -done ) and 1,000 (arithmetic) on the daily chart
1,340 (log- done) and 1,170 (arithmetic) on weekly chart
Currency: none
2nd March: An ominous top could be developing. But a close above 1,800 on strong volume would remove any bearish doubt. A few more weeks of sideways movement would be healthy.

Current prediction

Short term:  none

Medium term: reverse head and shoulders points to 2,110 - not a good pattern, but volume is good.

Long term:  head and shoulders top (daily chart) points to somewhere  between 1,200 and 1,250 (log- done) and 930 (arithmetic).

2. double top pointing to

1,250 (log -done ) and 1,000 (arithmetic) on the daily chart
1,340 (log- done) and 1,170 (arithmetic) on weekly chart
25th February: The index is likely to retest 1,650. If we see a few weeks of sideways movement, with volume staying strong, we could see a nice reversal pattern, giving a target around 2,400. The best time for that to happen would be towards the end of March or in April.
18th February: The index is still under some strong resistance. A close at 1,850, on strong volume, would escape the resistances and allow us to cancel the last bear predictions.

11th February: Good volume in recent weeks gives hope that the index will continue its current medium term bull rally. But resistance at 1,800 needs to break on strong volume before we can be confident of a continuation of the bull.

Current prediction

Short term:  none

Medium term: reverse head and shoulders points to 2,110 - not a good pattern, but volume is good.

Long term:  head and shoulders top (daily chart) points to somewhere  between 1,200 and 1,250 (log- done) and 930 (arithmetic).

2. double top pointing to

1,250 (log -done ) and 1,000 (arithmetic) on the daily chart
1,340 (log- done) and 1,170 (arithmetic) on weekly chart
Currency: none
2nd February: The index is facing strong long term resistance at the current level.

Current prediction

Short term:  none

Medium term: reverse head and shoulders points to 2,110 - not a good pattern, but volume is good.

Long term:  head and shoulders top (daily chart) points to somewhere  between 1,200 and 1,250 (log- done) and 930 (arithmetic).

2. double top pointing to

1,250 (log -done ) and 1,000 (arithmetic) on the daily chart
1,340 (log- done) and 1,170 (arithmetic) on weekly chart
Currency: none
28th January: Some good gains last week. Volume is still impressive. But no persuasive reversal pattern means no clear target. The medium term pattern pointing to 2,110 has a chance. But it's not a great bet.

Current prediction

Short term:  none

Medium term: reverse head and shoulders points to 2,110 - not a good pattern, but volume is good.

Long term:  head and shoulders top (daily chart) points to somewhere  between 1,200 and 1,250 (log- done) and 930 (arithmetic).

2. double top pointing to

1,250 (log -done ) and 1,000 (arithmetic) on the daily chart
1,340 (log- done) and 1,170 (arithmetic) on weekly chart
Currency: none
4th January: The index is trapped under a strong long term resistance. A breakout from this resistance would be encouraging.

Current prediction

Short term:  none

Medium term: reverse head and shoulders points to 2,140

Long term:  head and shoulders top (daily chart) points to somewhere  between 1,200 and 1,250 (log- done) and 930 (arithmetic).

2. double top pointing to

1,250 (log -done ) and 1,000 (arithmetic) on the daily chart
1,340 (log- done) and 1,170 (arithmetic) on weekly chart
Currency: none
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2001

24th December: The index is meandering around. A close above 1,750 is needed to erase the bear threat. And we need to see more volume. Perhaps next year.

Current prediction

Short term:  double bottom points to 1,690

Medium term: none

Long term:  head and shoulders top (daily chart) points to somewhere  between 1,200 and 1,250 (log- done) and 930 (arithmetic).

2. double top pointing to

1,250 (log -done ) and 1,000 (arithmetic) on the daily chart
1,340 (log- done) and 1,170 (arithmetic) on weekly chart
Currency: none
10th December: The index has made a short term bottom, as has the fund. But the big test is now approaching: resistance at the neckline of the long term head and shoulders top, which is still valid, albeit not a great threat.

Current prediction

Short term:  double bottom points to 1,690

Medium term: none

Long term:  head and shoulders top (daily chart) points to somewhere  between 1,200 and 1,250 (log- done) and 930 (arithmetic).

2. double top pointing to

1,250 (log -done ) and 1,000 (arithmetic) on the daily chart
1,340 (log- done) and 1,170 (arithmetic) on weekly chart
Currency: none
24th November: The prospect of a bottom for the index is still not great. Volume is inadequate.

19th November:  The index is not giving much indication of direction. There is a small double bottom forming. But volume is inadequate for a bottom.

22nd October: The index has broken out of a short term pattern that suggests a retesting of the previous low at around 1,200. If that happens, we will either see a double bottom form around 1,200, or the more likely scenario, a fall to the arithmetic target of our long term top at around 900.

Current prediction

Short term:  rising wedge pointing to previous low at 1,200

Medium term: none

Long term:  head and shoulders top (daily chart) points to somewhere  between 1,200 and 1,250 (log- done) and 930 (arithmetic).

2. double top pointing to

1,250 (log -done ) and 1,000 (arithmetic) on the daily chart
1,340 (log- done) and 1,170 (arithmetic) on weekly chart
Currency: none
15th October: No change for the index. Still a danger of further falls. Currency is likely to retest previous low.

Current prediction

Short term:  none

Medium term: none

Long term:  head and shoulders top (daily chart) points to somewhere  between 1,200 and 1,250 (log- done) and 930 (arithmetic).

2. double top pointing to

1,250 (log -done ) and 1,000 (arithmetic) on the daily chart
1,340 (log- done) and 1,170 (arithmetic) on weekly chart
Currency: none
8th October: The fund chart is still the most significant indicator. It suggests that the market still has a way to fall before bottoming. Thus we should not presume that the current "V" is a bottom of any significant duration.

1st October: Good long term supports give a chance of a bottom near the current level. But the fund chart suggests that the index has further to fall. See the charts below for the possible supports.

Current prediction

Short term:  none

Medium term: none

Long term:  head and shoulders top (daily chart) points to somewhere  between 1,200 and 1,250 (log- done) and 930 (arithmetic).

2. double top pointing to

1,250 (log -done ) and 1,000 (arithmetic) on the daily chart
1,340 (log- done) and 1,170 (arithmetic) on weekly chart
Currency: none
17th September: After months of dithering, the index has confirmed the target 1,200, or thereabouts. But there is no guarantee of a bottom at that level. Long term supports exist at 1,200, 1,000 and 900, the latter being the arithmetic target for the long term head and shoulders top. We could see the index fall to any one of those levels, before bottoming.

Current prediction

Short term:  none

Medium term: double top pointing to 1,435 (log - done) and 1,350 (arithmetic)

Long term:  head and shoulders top (daily chart) points to somewhere  between 1,200 and 1,250 (log) and 930 (arithmetic). Confirmed.

2. double top pointing to

1,250 (log) and 1,000 (arithmetic) on the daily chart
1,340 (log) and 1,170 (arithmetic) on weekly chart
Currency: none
10th September: Long term support at 1,530 is now likely to be tested. If it breaks, we can expect 1,250.

Current prediction

Short term:  none

Medium term: 1.) double top pointing to 1,435 (log) and 1,350 (arithmetic).

Long term: 1. head and shoulders top (daily chart) points to somewhere  between 1,200 and 1,250 (log) and 930 (arithmetic). Confirmed if index falls below leg support and closes at 1,550.

2. double top pointing to

1,250 (log) and 1,000 (arithmetic) on the daily chart
1,340 (log) and 1,170 (arithmetic) on weekly chart
Currency: none
7th August: A close at 1,600 will likely see a fall to 1,500 within a week or two. Such a fall would take the index to the "leg" support (ie, closest parallel support to the neckline) of our long term head and shoulders top, which has been patiently awaiting confirmation for several months now. A close below 1,500 would give us a confirmed target in the lower 1,200 region. On the other hand, a rally above 1,700 would cancel the top.

Current prediction

Short term:  none

Medium term: double top pointing to 1,435 (log) and 1,350 (arithmetic).

Long term: 1. head and shoulders top (daily chart) points to somewhere  between 1,200 and 1,250 (log) and 930 (arithmetic). Confirmed if index falls below leg support and closes at 1,550.

2. double top pointing to

1,250 (log) and 1,000 (arithmetic) on the daily chart
1,340 (log) and 1,170 (arithmetic) on weekly chart
20th August: The index is still in a daze.  Currency has resistance at 1.72. Then 1.68.
Current prediction

Short term:  none

Medium term: double top pointing to 1,435 (log) and 1,350 (arithmetic).

Long term: 1. head and shoulders top (daily chart) points to somewhere  between 1,200 and 1,250 (log) and 930 (arithmetic). Confirmed if index falls below leg support and closes at 1,550.

2. double top pointing to

1,250 (log) and 1,000 (arithmetic) on the daily chart
1,340 (log) and 1,170 (arithmetic) on weekly chart
Currency: none
13th August: The index has gone into hybernation. But the currency has broken another important resistance, this time at 1.77. Further appreciation would not surprise.

30th July: The important support is now at 1,530, or thereabouts. Below this level, we can expect the index to fall to 1,200 region

23rd July: No significant change from last week. The significant support is at 1,540, or thereabouts.

9th July: Still waiting for confirmation of the long term top pointing to 1,200. This would require a close at around 1,530. Until that happens, or until the top is cancelled, we are in limbo.

23rd June: No significant change this week. We really need a rally above 1,800 in order to cancel the top pointing to 1,250.

18th June: Still in limbo, but the long term indication is down. A close at 1,550 is needed to confirm the bearish target of 1,200. But the fund chart gives a very clear bearish picture. Short term bullish patterns are not reliable.

Current prediction

Short term:  none

4th June: A short term top points to 1,555. But only a fall below 1,550 will confirm the fall to the 1,250 region.

Current prediction

Short term:  double top points to 1,555

Medium term: double top pointing to 1,450 (log) and 1,370 (arithmetic).

Long term: 1. head and shoulders top (daily chart) points to somewhere  between 1,200 and 1,250 (log) and 930 (arithmetic). Confirmed if index falls below leg support and closes at 1,550.

2. double top pointing to

1,250 (log) and 1,000 (arithmetic) on the daily chart
1,340 (log) and 1,170 (arithmetic) on weekly chart
Currency: 1.98 is now a fairly good chance.
28th May: No significant change this weeek.

Current prediction

Short term:  none

Medium term: double top pointing to 1,450 (log) and 1,370 (arithmetic).

Long term: 1. head and shoulders top (daily chart) points to somewhere  between 1,200 and 1,250 (log) and 930 (arithmetic). Confirmed if index falls below leg support and closes at 1,550.

2. double top pointing to

1,250 (log) and 1,000 (arithmetic) on the daily chart
1,340 (log) and 1,170 (arithmetic) on weekly chart
Currency: 1.98 is now a fairly good chance.
14th May: The index has made a little turn on the neckline of the head and shoulders top. It's only a tiny movement. But it is a step to confirming the bearish targets listed below.

7th May:   Last week the index rose to 1,750 - right on the upper boundary of the long term head and shoulders top. It now remains to be seen whether the index will rally above the long term top neckline or whether it will turn and fall, confirming the top and target of 1,250. The fund is still bearish, adding to the probability that the index will fail to cancel the top.

30th April: Nothing exciting to note. A close at 1,750 would cancel the long term top. Until then, we should presume several more months of bearishness.

Current prediction

Short term:  none

Medium term: double top pointing to 1,450 (log) and 1,370 (arithmetic).

Long term: 1. head and shoulders top (daily chart) points to somewhere  between 1,200 and 1,250 (log) and 930 (arithmetic). Confirmed if index falls below leg support and closes at 1,550.

2. double top pointing to

1,250 (log) and 1,000 (arithmetic) on the daily chart
1,340 (log) and 1,170 (arithmetic) on weekly chart.
Currency: 1.98 is now a fairly good chance.
23rd April: Still bearish. Only a close at 1,760 will cancel the prediction of 1,250. The fund chart is the clearest picture. It is midway to target and poised on a good support. But there is nothing to suggest interruption. Currency is just pulling back to its neckline. Chances are it will take a beating in the next few weeks.

Current prediction

Short term:  none

Medium term: none

Long term: 1. head and shoulders top (daily chart) points to somewhere  between 1,200 and 1,250 (log) and 930 (arithmetic). Confirmed if index falls below leg support and closes at 1,550.
2. double top (weekly chart) pointing to 1,340 (log) and 1,170 (arithmetic). Confirmed if index falls below 1,600 or pulls back to 1,800 and turns.

Currency: 1.98 is now a fairly good chance.

9th April: The leg support for our long term daily pattern is still holding. Thus we should not yet confirm 1,250. Plenty of time for that when the last support breaks. The fund chart, on the other hand, is unambiguously bearish and gives a good guidance for the long term trend. There is some good support at the current level on the weekly chart. But no sign of a reversal yet.

2nd April: The fund chart is the most unequivocal indicator this week. It suggests that the daily chart pointing to 1,250 is a high probability. Currency has broken a double top and could well fall to 1.98.

Current prediction

Short term:  none

Medium term: none

Long term: 1. head and shoulders top (daily chart) points to 1,250 (log) and 1,000 (arithmetic). Confirmed if index falls below leg support and closes at 1,600.
2. double top (weekly chart) pointing to 1,340 (log) and 1,170 (arithmetic). Confirmed if index falls below 1,600 or pullsback to 1,800 and turns.

Currency: 198 is now a fairly good chance.

19th March: The STI is on the verge of breaking out of a head and shoulders top. A close at 1,680 or lower this week will give a prediction of 1,270, or lower. The fund chart has already broken an analogous top to that of the index. My guess is that the STI will follow shortly.

Current prediction

Short term:  none

Medium term: a double top points to 1,400. Questionable due to long term support at 1,750 - 1,700.

12th March: The index is heading back to the 1,800 region. But the real test is at 1,700. If support at that level fails, we can expect the index to fall below 1,300. But let's not worry about that now. Instead, see my mother's Tuscan cooking school ad, below. She is an agent for the school. I've been there and eaten there. They even make their own wine, Chianti. Yum! (Which in English means "delicious", and in Cantonese, is an invitation to drink.) I'm sure you epicurean Singaporean would love it, with a capital "L".

Current prediction

Short term: a wedge points to 1,840; a double top points slightly higher.

5th March: Two short term patterns point to around 1,860 and 1,840 respectively. The big test for the index now is at around 1,800 on the daily chart, and slightly higher on the weekly chart. Below that......

Current prediction

Short term: a wedge points to 1,840; a double top points slightly higher.

26th February: A close at 1,930 could have bearish short term implications. The index could then test a support at 1,900. If that fails, supports are below 1,800.

19h February:  Nothing much going on. We have a couple of short term scenarios. Both are bearish. Falling volume since October last year does not inspire bullish confidence.

5th February: Nothing much more than a few supports and resistances. There could be a triangle forming, which would explain the lacklustre performance of the market throughout last month. A fall to 1,875 would therefore not surprise. A fall below that level would raise concerns for the market.

8th January: The index rallied to long term resistance. A break above this resistance, on strong volume would be encouraging. The fund could be indicating a wedge reversal. But no confirmation yet.
 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2000

18th December: Long term resistance at 2,030 has turned the index. Danger of a big head and shoulders top with log target of 1,200 is now facing us. Supports at the current level, 1900, 1800 and around 16,600, depending on time. If the latter breaks, we can confirm 1,200. The upside scenario would require a rally a above 2,050 on high volume.

11th December: The index is nicely perched on a channel support. The fund looks like it is making a double bottom, which should auger well for the index. Could be some gains in the short term.

4th December: Not much to report. Short term support is at 1,930 and then just above 1,900. But nothing much turns on these supports.

27th November: Bullish and bearish scenarios prevail. No clear direction. Resistance at 2,050 this week. If it is passed on good volume, the bulls would have won a battle.

Current prediction

Short term: double bottom points to 2,140

20th November: The long term is just a series of supports and resistances. The short term double bottom is in danger of fizzling.

13th November: A bit of a pullback last week. Volume is still good. But nothing more to report.

Current prediction

Short term: double bottom points to 2,180

6th November: A good short term pattern gives an upside of 2,180. There is a good medium term scenario developing. But there is a strong resistance at about 2,080. Volume is impressive. Thus there is a good chance that the index is bottoming. Currency also has a chance of bottoming.

Current prediction

Short term: double bottom points to 2,180

30th October: Both index and currency are on good long term support. There is the chance of a short term reverse head and shoulders. But it would need another week or two to be persuasive. If the index falls through the good support at around 1,800, the next critical support would be at 1,650. If that support were to fail, we could expect the index to be in the grip of a long term bear trend with bottom not above 1,250.

Current prediction

Short term: double bottom points to 1,980

23rd October: The index is on a good long term support and there is a good short term double bottom. If the index consolidates around 2,000 and then breaks out, the chances of the index forming a durable bottom would be good. On the other hand, until there is a bullish signal, the long term bearish scenario of 1,250 should also be considered.

Current prediction

Short term: double bottom points to 1,960

Medium term: a double top points to around 1,775. A head and shoulders points to 1,680

16th October: The index is now sitting on a good long term support. If it breaks, there will be nothing to stop the index falling to our next target of 1,775, then to the next target at 1,680. A fall to 1,680 could see a big head and shoulders top break, giving a target back at the previous bottom of around 1,000.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: a double top points to around 1,775. A head and shoulders points to 1,680

Long term: none

Currency: none

9th October: Last week was spent in consolidation below the neckline of the double top. The failure of the index to rally above the neckline tends to confirm the top. But the long term support at the current level suggests that we should wait for the index to drop to around 1,900 before confirming 1,775. A fall below 1,700 would spell a long term bearish trend, with a fall back to the previous low.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: a double top points to around 1,775.

2nd October: The index has broken and repaired the long term support at around 2,000. But the medium term double top suggests that the index is going to fall lower, breaking the long term support convincingly.
Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: a double top points to around 1,775.

25th September: The index broke out of a double top pointing to somewhere around the most recent bottom of 1,775. There is good long term support at this level. But there is also the chance of a long term head and shoulders top forming. Thus, if the index falls 1,700, we can expect a fall back to the previous bottom for the index.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: a double top points to around 1,775.

18th September: The index is likely to fall back to 1,800. If there is to be a surprise interruption to this fall, the support at 2,000 would be the likely point of such a rebound.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: a rising wedge points back to around 1,800.

11th September: The index is looking bearish. But we need to see support at 2,125 break, before confirming a fall back to the previous low of around 1,800.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: a rising wedge points back to around 1,800.

4th September: The index is giving no short term direction. But low volume does not support a bullish scenario.

14th August: The index and the fund chart are both making encouraging reversal patterns. But volume in the index is still lacking, making a reversal unlikely.

7th August: Not much movement with the index last week. The long term scenario still looks bullish, given the increasing volume. But the short and medium term are subject to conflicting scenarios. And there is also a long term bearish scenario to consider, but it's quite a way off.

31st July: The index is looking weak in the short term. A double top points to around 1,970. At that point there are both positive and negative scenarios. The regional trend is likely to influence this market.

Current prediction

Short term: a double top points to 1,970.

24th July: A bit of short term weakness could pave the way for a reversal of the medium term  bearish trend. Critical support is between 1,940 and 1,970.

17th July: Still no clear medium term reversal pattern, leaving open the possibility that the index could take a turn for the worse.

10th July: The long term top is cancelled. But there is nothing to indicate a reversal of the medium term bearish trend. There is a reversal pattern forming. But volume is marginal.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: head and shoulders top points to 1,545 log and 1,410 arithmetic-cancelled.

3rd July: The index is in danger of making a short term top, which would confirm the long term top that points to 1,545. Only a rally above 2,100, on strong volume, will cancel the top.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: head and shoulders top points to 1,545 log and 1,410 arithmetic. Cancelled if the index rallies above 2,080.

Currency: none

26th June: Good long term weekly supports, and a nice medium term reversal scenario could have bullish implications. But the index is still subject to a long term top that points to 1,545, at least.

19th June: No change to last week's picture, except that the fund chart is giving a topping scenario.

12th June: The bearish top pointing to 1,540 has almost been cancelled. This is encouraging. But I have revised my point of cancellation to 2,080. If the index breaks this level, we shall cancel the top. On the other hand, there is nothing bullish to remark upon. Even if the index cancels the top, we could still be waiting a few weeks for a bullish reversal pattern.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: head and shoulders top points to 1,545 log and 1,410 arithmetic. Cancelled if the index rallies above 2,080.

Currency: none

5th June: The index is subject to two bearish targets. But the long term weekly support is good at the current level and could interrupt the fall to target. Only a rally above 2,030 will cancel the bearish targets.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: a head and shoulders top points to 1,720. Cancelled if the index rallies above 1,925.

Long term: head and shoulders top points to 1,545 log and 1,410 arithmetic.

Currency: none

15th May: The index touched weekly support last week. A fall below 1,900 will break a head and shoulders top with target of 1,400. But there is good long term support and the index could just as easily bounce around aimlessly for a while.

8th May: Nothing exciting for the market last week. Currency took a little dive last week and is now testing long term support.

1st May: The index rose on low volume. A fall to 2,000 is likely in the short term. But there is good support until around 1,950 on the daily chart and 2,000 on the weekly chart. After that, there is nothing apparent. The index could take a steep tumble.

24th April: The short and medium term show bearish scenarios. But there are no bearish targets outstanding for the index. The fund, on the other hand, has broken out of a bearish top. We should keep an eye on it to see whether the top is cancelled, or whether it is a precursor of further falls for the index. The long term daily chart still looks very bullish, but this is only from the perspective of a scenario, not a prediction.

The currency, on the other hand, has bottomed.

17th April: The index is coming perilously close to the neckline of a top that could see a fall to 1,500. 2,000 will be the important weekly support this Friday.

25th March:  The rally last week was on low volume. Either we see higher volume developing in the next two weeks or we face a bearish medium term outlook. The fund chart shows some stability with a strong support still holding after many weeks of volatility. With luck it represents a medium term base from which the fund, and the market that it represents, will rally.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: a head and shoulders top points to 1,900. But support at 2,050 must first break.

Long term: none

Currency: sitting on support

20th March: The index is sitting on a good long term support. The fund chart shows a similar long term support. If these supports hold, the index has a chance of forming a medium term bottom. If it fails, the downside could be around 1,550.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: a head and shoulders top points to 1,900. But support at 2,050 must first break.

Long term: none

Currency: sitting on support

13th March: The index touched a good long term support. This support is echoed by the fund chart. But weekly support is still a hundred points lower. There is still a bearish scenario overhanging the index. But I favour the bullish scenario shown in the longest term daily chart. As ever, volume on any rally will determine the prospects for the long term scenario.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: a head and shoulders top points to 1,770. But support at 2,050 must first break.

Long term: none

Currency: sitting on support

6th March: Nothing much happened last week. But something should happen this week. The index is close to our wedge resistance. That means either breakout, or a fall to around 2,050. The big question is whether the top pointing to 1,770 will work. The green wedge gives a chance that it won't. Let's see if we get a breakout this week.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: a head and shoulders top points to 1,770. But support at 2,050 must first break.

Long term: none

Currency: sitting on support

28th February: All eyes now are on the long term support, somewhere between 2,000 and 2,100. If the index turns at this point and rallies on strong volume, we will have a new scenario with a higher target, perhaps in the middle of this year.

Current prediction

Short term: A short term term top points down to 2,060, now looking more probable.

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency: sitting on support

21st February: The long term neckline of the pattern pointing to 3,600 has failed. The target is now cancelled. A fall to weekly support, somewhere above 2,000 is now likley.

Current prediction

Short term: A short term term top points down to 2,060, now looking more probable.

Medium term: none

Long term: A long term reverse head and shoulders pointing to 3,600 is cancelled.

Currency: sitting on support

14th February: The index is still holding above the neckline of our long term pattern. There is a short term pattern pointing below that long term neckline. But with a bit of luck, the pattern will soon be defeated.

Current prediction

Short term: A short term term top points down to 2,060. But long term support might defeat it.

Medium term: none

Long term: A long term reverse head and shoulders points to 3,600, subject to good volume. The weekly chart confirms this target.

Currency: medium term trend is up.

7th February: The index is sitting right on neckline support. If it falls much further, we can cancel our prediction of 3,600. A rally on strong volume next week would confirm the target.

Current prediction

Short term: none.

Medium term: none

Long term: A long term reverse head and shoulders points to 3,600, subject to good volume. The weekly chart confirms this target.

Currency: medium term trend is up.

31st January: The index has pulled back to the neckline of our long term pattern and turned. This is a confirmation of our target of 3,600. But higher volume would be a better confirmation.

Current prediction

Short term: none.

Medium term: none

Long term: A long term reverse head and shoulders points to 3,600, subject to good volume. The weekly chart confirms this target.

Currency: medium term trend is up.

10th January: Last week saw a pullback to the neckline of our long term pattern that points to 3,600. A turn and rally will confirm the pattern and the target. Volume is picking up. But it still needs to increase, in order to give us confidence that the target will be reached. Another pullback in coming weeks would not surprise. Nor would it damage the chances of a rally to 3,600 this year, provided we do not see a weekly close below 2,300.

Current prediction

Short term: none.

Medium term: none

Long term: A long term reverse head and shoulders points to 3,600, subject to good volume.

Currency: medium term trend is up.
 
 


History  from 1996 to 1999


Home .....US  .. Europe, Japan & Australia ..  Emerging Markets  .. Commodities .... China & Hongkong .... Thailand.

Malaysia & Singapore  ..  Korea & Taiwan  ...India, Indoneisa & Philippines  .. Contact us

©2010 Copyright Gregory Barton