History of Singapore Straits Times Index
1999

20th December: The index has broken a long term resistance, albeit on low volume. We can tentatively pronounce a long term target of 3,600. With luck, a surge of good volume in the new year will confirm this target.

Current prediction

Short term: none.

Medium term: "reverse head and shoulders/ triple bottom" points to 2,540. Volume isn't good and resistance at 2,410 could pose and obstacle

Long term: A long term reverse head and shoulders points to 3,600, subject to good volume.

Currency: medium term trend is up.

29th November: The index is right at long term resistance on both daily and weekly charts. There are patterns that point higher. But volume isn't persuasive. I cannot, therefore, see the index jumping these important resistances in a hurry.

I can't see the index falling much either, given the good channel supports. Perhaps sideways is the likely course for a while. But watch out for a steady increase of volume for four or five days - often the tell-tale sign of an impending breakout.

Current prediction

Short term: double bottoms pointing to 2,370. But there is strong resistance 2,250.

Medium term: triangle points to 2,400. Resistance at 2,280.

Long term: A long term reverse head and shoulders points to 2,350.

Currency: short term bottom confirmed

22nd November: The index and the fund have hit long term resistances. Volume is weak. It has not matched the volume attending the last occasion when the index hit the same level. The prospect for a double top is therefore a danger to be considered. A fall to 1,800 would not surprise. But, on the other hand, it would be surprising if this market fell while the rest of the region rallied. We shall have to await further signals.

Current prediction

Short term: double bottoms point to 2,280 and 2,370. But there is strong resistance at 2,210 and 2,250, the latter of which will require strong volume to penetrate.

Medium term: triangle points to 2,400. Resistance at 2,280.

Long term: A long term reverse head and shoulders points to 2,350.

Currency: short term bottom confirmed

15th November: The market is looking bullish with short term breakouts accompanied by increasing volume. However, the index is now approaching a minefield of resistances: 2,210, 2,250 and 2,280 are the main ones. Volume, while increasing, is still less than half of what it needs to be to clear these resistances.

Current prediction

Short term: double bottoms point to 2,280 and 2,370. But there is strong resistance at 2,210 and 2,250, the latter of which will require strong volume to penetrate.

Medium term: triangle points to 2,400. Resistance at 2,280.

Long term: A long term reverse head and shoulders points to 2,350.

Currency: short term bottom confirmed

8th November: The index has broken out of a medium term triangle that points to 2,400. The quality of the triangle and the breakout are not good. But it confirms the target for the long term reverse head and shoulders pointing to 2,350. Resistance will be at just under 2,300. If this level breaks, and volume picks up, we could have a target of 3,600.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: triangle points to 2,400.

Long term: A long term reverse head and shoulders points to 2,350.

Currency: strengthening

25th October: Nothing much going on in this market. Our short term triangle has now travelled so far towards its apex that it offers little predictive value. A fall below 1,925 would suggest a bearish medium term. But look to the fund chart, which is holding above the neckline of a long term reversal pattern with great tenacity. It could go either way and could indicate short and medium term direction.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: A long term reverse head and shoulders points to 2,350.

Currency: Target at 1.73 - cancelled

11th October: The index is now facing medium term resistance. There is a chance that it will break upside. If it does, there is resistance before 2,300 to contend with. We should also see breakout on good volume to be persuaded that a rally is sustainable.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: A long term reverse head and shoulders points to 2,350.

Currency: Target at 1.73 - cancelled

4th October: The index has turned on a good long term channel support. But the weekly channel is still broken. Volume is still weak. Currency has rebounded, cancelling our bearish target.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: A long term reverse head and shoulders points to 2,350.

Currency: Target at 1.73 - cancelled

27th September: The long term weekly channel support broke last week. But only by a whisker. The next support is around 1,800. Daily long term support is around 2,000. A triangle could see the index fall to 1,700. Weak recent volume is not encouraging. But our target of 2,350 is valid until the triangle breaks downside.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: A long term reverse head and shoulders points to 2,350.

Currency: Target at 1.73

13th September: Not much going on. Our triangle points to 2,450, but I don't give it too much hope unless the previous high of 2,250 breaks. At present there are no clear signals in the index. Volume is not particularly encouraging.

The fund chart does, however, suggest that the market is consolidating at the current level before a further rally. Let's hope so.

Current prediction

Short term: triangle points to 2,450, subject to volume increasing to previous high levels.

Medium term: none

Long term: A long term reverse head and shoulders points to 2,350.

Currency: Target at 1.63

30th August: Not much movement last week. The index broke out of a double bottom, but only marginally. Volume is still weak. If volume picks up, so too will the chances that the index breaks new ground. The downside is 1,700. But that is remote at the moment.

Current prediction

Short term: triangle points to 2,450, subject to volume increasing to previous high levels.

Medium term: none

Long term: A long term reverse head and shoulders points to 2,350.

Currency: Target at 1.64

23rd August: A triangle broke out upside. That gives a target of 2,450. Volume on the breakout was good. But the breakout was close to the apex, and therefore, less reliable than it might have otherwise been, had the pattern broken out a couple of weeks ago.

The real thing to watch now is volume. I would like to see volume build up to the previous highs of S$2 billion per day and higher. If this does not happen, beware a double top.

The fund looks bullish. With luck, that will give an indication for the market.

Current prediction

Short term: triangle points to 2,450, subject to volume increasing to previous high levels.

Medium term: none

Long term: A long term reverse head and shoulders points to 2,350.

Currency: Target at 1.64

16th August: All crucial supports are still holding. Until one breaks, the index is still in a bullish mode.

9th August: Despite some alarming signs, the index is still in bull mode. Worst case would be a 20% fall. But the fund chart still looks good, as does the index.

Current prediction

Short term: head and shoulders top could be brewing. But nothing is yet confirmed.

Medium term: none

Long term:  1. A long term reverse head and shoulders points to 2,400.
2. Another pattern points to 3,200. The pattern lacks proportion (right shoulder is a bit small). But volume is good. Resistance at 2,200 could stall progress.

Currency: Next long term resistance is at 1.64

2nd August: The index turned on good channel support last week. But low volume accompanying the rebound gives cause for concern.

19th July: Still in limbo. The long term charts tell the story, which is currently ambiguous. There are strong resistances in one formulation of the long term weekly chart. But another formulation gives upside of 2,550. The fund chart might hold  a clue. It shows good upside in the medium term, but a little more short term weakness. The index is supported at 2,090.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  1. A long term reverse head and shoulders points to 2,400.
2. Another pattern points to 3,200. The pattern lacks proportion (right shoulder is a bit small). But volume is good. Resistance at 2,200 could stall progress.

Currency: Next long term resistance is at 1.64

12th July: The index appears to be approaching our next target of 2,400. The current channels could take the index to target at any time from now.

But it's difficult to see what the index is doing long term. The long term charts give two conflicting scenarios, one of which could keep the index in its current range for many months or even years (unlikely in the current regional context). The fund chart suggests more upside. And one long term scenario gives upside of around 2,600. But we won't have a clear picture of the long term direction of the market unless the index breaches the 2,400 level.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  1. A long term reverse head and shoulders points to 2,400.
2. Another pattern points to 3,200. The pattern lacks proportion (right shoulder is a bit small). But volume is good. Resistance at 2,200 could stall progress.

Currency: Next long term resistance is at 1.64

28th June: Average daily volume on the Singapore Stock Exchange is now double the previous upper limit taking a 50 day average. But the index has now come up against a very strong long term resistance that could, perhaps, see the market in a range of 1,800 to 2,250 for a year or more, taking the worst case scenario.

The current resistance is therefore an important one. With luck, we will see it passed due to the target of 2,300, which has not yet been reached and the extremely high volume. If so, we could re-draw the long term weekly chart to give a resistance of 2,550.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  1. A long term reverse head and shoulders points to 2,300.
2. Another pattern points to 3,200. The pattern lacks proportion (right shoulder is a bit small). But volume is good. Resistance at 2,200 could stall progress.

Currency: Next long term resistance is at 1.64

21st June: The index has reached our short term target and a patch of resistance. The weekly chart also shows strong channel resistance, suggesting a few weeks of consolidation.

Current prediction

Short term: Triangle points to 2,100

Long term:  1. A long term reverse head and shoulders points to 2,300.
2. Another pattern points to 3,200. The pattern lacks proportion (right shoulder is a bit small). But volume is good. Resistance at 2,200 could stall progress.

Currency: Next long term resistance is at 1.64

14th June: The index is facing resistance from the current level to the 2,200 level. A possible breakout points to 3,200. But it is not a well-formed pattern. My consolidation at the 2,200 level is still prominent in my calculations.

Current prediction

Short term: Triangle points to 2,100

Long term:  1. A long term reverse head and shoulders points to 2,300.
2. Another pattern points to 3,200. The pattern lacks proportion (right shoulder is a bit small). But volume is good. Resistance at 2,200 could stall progress.

Currency: Next long term resistance is at 1.64

7th June: A short term pattern could break this week. It will indicate whether the market is likely to fall to 1,700 or rally to 2,100 in the short term.

Current prediction

Short term: Triangle

Long term:  A long term reverse head and shoulders points to 2,300. This pattern has fair volume and good symmetry. If volume continues to build or stays steady at S$1.2 billion, chances of reaching the target will be good.

Currency: Next long term resistance is at 1.64

31st May: The index is making a topping pattern that could give a target of 1,700 in the short term. But the long term still looks promising, with a good chance of 2,300 being reached by the end of this year.

Current prediction

Medium term: none

Long term:  A long term reverse head and shoulders points to 2,300. This pattern has fair volume and good symmetry. If volume continues to build or stays steady at S$1.2 billion, chances of reaching the target will be good.

Currency: Next long term resistance is at 1.64

24th May: The long term picture remains good. Chances of the index reaching 2,300 are high. There are no short term patterns indicating correction. It is therefore likely that the index remains in a range of 1,800 to 2,150 in the medium term.

Current prediction

Medium term: none

Long term:  A long term reverse head and shoulders points to 2,300. This pattern has fair volume and good symmetry. If volume continues to build or stays steady at S$1.2 billion, chances of reaching the target will be good.

Currency: Next long term resistance is at 1.64

10th May: The index turned on a horizontal resistance last week. But great volume last week could propel the index higher without substantial correction. On the other hand, we could see a consolidation scenario at the current level, keeping the index in a narrow range for a couple of months.

Note that the date for my seminar is getting near. If you haven't already signed up, don't wait for the last minute.

Current prediction

Medium term: none

Long term:  A long term reverse head and shoulders points to 2,300. This pattern has fair volume and good symmetry. If volume continues to build or stays steady at S$1.2 billion, chances of reaching the target will be good.

Currency: Next long term resistance is at 1.64

3rd May: Long term prospects are still good. But short term could see a correction. A little double top has appeared, but not yet broken. I have outlined two scenarios below: one, the index consolidates for the remainder of the year; two, the index consolidates for a few months and reaches target of 2,300 in the third quarter.

Current prediction

Medium term: none

Long term:  A long term reverse head and shoulders points to 2,300. This pattern has fair volume and good symmetry. If volume continues to build or stays steady at S$1.2 billion, chances of reaching the target will be good.

Currency: Next long term resistance is at 1.64

26th April: Volume now clearly outweighs that of the rally in 1998. We may therefore confirm a long term reversal. However, the market could stay in a tight range for a few months as a larger pattern builds. If this occurs, our patience could be rewarded with a new high for the index within twelve months... from the depths of despair to the ecstasy of that which we dare not imagine. Fickle and incredulous.

Current prediction

Medium term: none

Long term:  A long term reverse head and shoulders points to 2,300. This pattern has fair volume and good symmetry. If volume continues to build or stays steady at S$1.2 billion, chances of reaching the target will be good.

Currency: strengthening after making a small reversal pattern on support. Next long term resistance is at 1.64

19th April: Good volume of S$1 billion and higher last week gives cause to hope that our long term target of 2,300 is valid. There is weekly resistance at the current level and daily resistance at 2,000. Either of these points could keep the index in consolidation mode. However, increasing volume will increase the chances of penetration.

The medium term ascending channel would allow target to be met as early as September this year. However, there is also the chance that the index might consolidate at 2,025 until the first quarter of next year, before moving to target.

Current prediction

Medium term: none

Long term: 1. A defective reverse head and shoulders points to 1,950. 2. A long term reverse head and shoulders points to 2,300. This pattern has fair volume and good symmetry. If volume continues to build or stays steady at S$1.2 billion, chances of reaching the target will be good.

Currency: strengthening after making a small reversal pattern on support. Next long term resistance is at 1.64

14th April: The index has broken a long term reversal pattern pointing to 2,300. The same target of 2,300 is confirmed on the weekly chart. But volume, while building, is not optimal. Let's see if this picks up in the next couple of weeks.

The currency appears to have bottomed out and could strengthen to its long term resistance at 1.57.

Current prediction

Medium term:

Long term: 1. A defective reverse head and shoulders points to 1,950. 2. A long term reverse head and shoulders points to 2,300. This pattern has fair volume and good symmetry. But volume is not sufficient to meet the rules required by reverse head and shoulder theory: namely, the volume attending the rise from the right shoulder to the neckline should not be the lowest volume on the chart. In this case, volume is lowest on the right shoulder and highest on the left shoulder of the pattern, casting doubt over the target. We thus need to see volume continue rising in order to be confident of our target.

Currency: strengthening after making a small reversal pattern on support. Next long term resistance is at 1.57.

26th March: Our long term patterns are starting to show a bit of symmetry. Volume is holding steadily, although it is not as high as I would like to see. A break above 1,575 on strong volume - at least S$1,200,000 per day - would give us a good long term reversal and a target of 2,350. Failing that, it's back to 1,000, or thereabouts.

Current prediction

Medium term: head and shoulders points to 1,200 - cancelled. Index could drift up to 1,480

Long term: A defective reverse head and shoulders points to 1,950. It remains valid so long as the index holds above the 1,200 to 1,250 level. But its defective volume suggests failure.

Currency: weak in the short term. Could even see 1.77.

22nd March: Unless we see a rally soon the index is more likely return to 1,000. We would need to see, in the next two or three weeks, a breakout above 1,575, on volume of approximately S$1.4 billion per day, sustained for a good week or more. We would then have a plausible long term scenario. It's now or never. Not really never. But time is running out for a bullish scenario. The double top would the logical consequence of failure.

Current prediction

Medium term: head and shoulders points to 1,200 - cancelled. Index could drift up to 1,480

Long term: A defective reverse head and shoulders points to 1,950. It remains valid so long as the index holds above the 1,200 to 1,250 level. But its defective volume suggests failure.

Currency: weak in the short term. Could even see 1.77.

15th March: The low volume accompanying the current rally, when compared with that of January, suggests the formation of a double top and a fall to 1,000. We will attempt to look  for some short term pattern to give warning before the neckline of the double top at 1,000 breaks.

Current prediction

Medium term: head and shoulders points to 1,200 - cancelled. Index could drift up to 1,480

Long term: A defective reverse head and shoulders points to 1,950. It remains valid so long as the index holds above the 1,200 to 1,250 level. But its defective volume suggests failure.

Currency: weak in the short term. Could even see 1.77.

8th March: The index rallied on unimpressive volume. The short term target of 1,200 is cancelled. But a double top could be forming in the medium term.

Current prediction

Medium term: head and shoulders points to 1,200 - cancelled. Index could drift up to 1,480

Long term: A defective reverse head and shoulders points to 1,950. It remains valid so long as the index holds above the 1,200 to 1,250 level. But its defective volume suggests failure.

Currency: weak in the short term. Could even see 1.77.

1st March: A medium term pattern suggests that the index is heading down over the next few months. But there is still a small chance of a rally as the crucial support at 1,200 has not broken.

Current prediction

Medium term: head and shoulders points to 1,200

Long term: A defective reverse head and shoulders points to 1,950. It remains valid so long as the index holds above the 1,200 to 1,250 level. But its defective volume suggests failure.

Currency: weak in the short term. Could even see 1.75.

15th February: Signals are still equivocal: on one hand we have a trend of weakening volume and a short term topping pattern pointing to 1,200. On the other hand, we have a valid target of 1,900 that would only be cancelled if the index falls below 1,200 or thereabouts. Thus we could see a either a rally after Chinese New Year, taking the index as high as 2,300. Or we could see the index make a series of tops going back to 1,000 or lower.

Current prediction

Short term: head and shoulders points to 1,200

Long term: reverse head and shoulders pointing to 1,950 remains valid so long as the index holds above the 1,200 to 1,250 level.

Currency: weak in the short term. Could even see 1.75.

8th February: A small head and shoulders top pointing to 1,200 has broken and is valid. But I would like to see the medium term daily support break before confirming it.

Current prediction

Short term: head and shoulders points to 1,200, subject to the comment above.

Long term: reverse head and shoulders pointing to 1,950 remains valid so long as the index holds above the 1,200 to 1,250 level.

Currency: weak in the short term. Could even see 1.75.

1st February: Not a prediction, just a hunch. But if the regional weakness continues, we could see the index forming a head and shoulders top that takes it below the neckline of our remaining reverse head and shoulders pattern, cancelling the target of 1,950, breaking the short long term weekly support and having no support before 1,100.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Long term: reverse head and shoulders pointing to 1,950 remains valid so long as the index holds above the 1,200 to 1,250 level.

Currency: weak in the short term. Could even see 1.75.

25th January: The most recent prediction is cancelled by a double top. Check out the long term daily chart for a longer term reversal scenario which seems likely, if only due to the fact that the index has doubled in value within six months and could take a while to consolidate.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Long term: reverse head and shoulders pointing to 1,950 remains valid so long as the index holds above the 1,200 to 1,250 level.

Currency: weak in the short term. Could even see 1.75.

18th January: The index fell to a safe level last week. Volume is still good. But long term weekly and daily chart resistance is strong. Check out the long term weekly chart. It shows the index turning on a double resistance. This is quite persuasive. Remember also that the index has doubled in value over the past few months. There could still be a lot of profit taking to hold the market back (which is what these diagonal resistances indicate).

Current prediction

Short term: none

Long term: reverse head and shoulders pointing to 2,150. Needs more volume and there are long term resistances this week that could stall the index.

Currency: weak in the short term. Could even see 1.75.

11th January: The index has made a long term reversal pattern on the daily chart. But it faces crucial long term resistance at the current level. The reversal pattern suggests that there is a high probability that the index will break through the long term resistances. But we could see some consolidation at the current level. Time - and volume - will tell.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Long term: reverse head and shoulders pointing to 2,150. Needs more volume and there are long term resistances this week that could stall the index.

Currency: weak in the short term. Could even see 1.75.



1998

21st December: Volume has been weak recently, decreasing the chances that the index will hit my next target of 1,840. Falling volume also increases the chances of a head and shoulders top forming. When viewed with the long term resistances, the safest course is to presume the trend and wait for the index to break the 1,500 level before expecting the target of 1,840.

Current prediction

Short term: a reverse head and shoulders points to 1,840. It has a defect in that the left shoulder is tiny. Volume will resolve the issue. Increasing volume will take the index to target. Diminution will spell failure.

Long term: head and shoulders top has a logarithmic target of 614 - cancelled

Currency: Reversals pointing to 1.58

14th December: On one hand, we have good volume and a reversal pattern pointing higher, perhaps to 1,840 (medium chance). On the other hand we have stiff resistances evidenced by the daily index charts and the fund chart. Volume, while good, has not reached the highs of the peak at 1,350 in October.

There is no immediate danger that the index might fail. However, we need the index to surge on volume of around S$1 billion per day in order to see the rally continue. Otherwise, be on the lookout for a double top. Uncertainty prevails for this week.

Current prediction

Short term: a reverse head and shoulders points to 1,840. It has a defect in that the left shoulder is tiny. Volume will resolve the issue. Increasing volume will take the index to target. Diminution will spell failure.

Long term: head and shoulders top has a logarithmic target of 614 - cancelled

Currency: Reversals pointing to 1.58

7th December: The index still has a good chance of reaching 1,550. I'm a little concerned by the lower volume on the recent high. We'll have to wait and see if the index can turn on good volume, whether it will consolidate at the current level, or whether the resistance 1,420 - 1,440, will defeat the rally.

Current prediction

Short term: a reverse head and shoulders points to 1,550.

Long term: head and shoulders top has a logarithmic target of 614 - cancelled

Currency: Reversals pointing to 1.58

18th November: The index is heading for a strong resistance zone at 1,290 to 1,310. Once over this hurdle, the chances are good that the index can hit 1,550, provided that volume keeps up.

Current prediction

Short term: a reverse head and shoulders points to 1,550.

Long term: head and shoulders top has a logarithmic target of 614 - cancelled

Currency: Reversals pointing to 1.58 and 1.49

4th November: The STI has satisfied our previous target of 1,260 and now has a good chance of reaching 1,500. But there are some nice obstacles to overcome in the medium term and long term charts.

Current prediction

Short term: a reverse head and shoulders points to 1,500.

Long term: head and shoulders top has a logarithmic target of 614 - cancelled

Currency: Reversals pointing to 1.58 and 1.49

23rd October: The rally is facing stiff resistance in both the daily and weekly charts. But volume is picking up and the long term fund chart shows a strong resistance has broken. These factors give some hope to the equation.

Current prediction

Short term: a reverse head and shoulders points to 1,260. Volume is good, but the right shoulders is tiny. Good chance of reaching target.

Long term: head and shoulders top has a logarithmic target of 614. This is still valid.

Currency: Reversals pointing to 1.58 and 1.49

19th October: The STI broke out of a short term reversal pattern last Friday on good volume. We may now look forward to the index reaching the level of 1,260 and perhaps challenging the long term bearish pattern that points to 614.

Current prediction

Short term: a reverse head and shoulders points to 1,260. Volume is good, but the right shoulders it tiny. Good chance of reaching target.

Long term: head and shoulders top has a logarithmic target of 614. This is still valid.

Currency: Reversals pointing to 1.58 and 1.49

12th October: The STI rallied this morning above my short term target of 1,010. But the index needs to close over 1,200 on a Friday, before the spectre of 614 can be erased. There is a chance that a new reversal pattern will take the index to 1,250.

Current prediction

Short term: none: a triangle pointing to 1,010, valid with good volume - passed this morning.

Long term: head and shoulders top has a logarithmic target of 614. The weekly chart points to 157, but the upward sloping neckline might invalidate the pattern (or give us a reason to stick our heads in the sand).

Currency: reverse head and shoulders pointing to 168.

5th October: The chances of the market reaching 990 are now extremely low. Chances are that a little double top will break, sending the index back to 800 in the next week or two.

Current prediction

Short term:  a reverse head and shoulders with target of 990 or thereabouts. Volume is not persuasive. The pattern could easily fail.

Long term: head and shoulders top has a logarithmic target of 614. The weekly chart points to 157, but the upward sloping neckline might invalidate the pattern (or give us a reason to stick our heads in the sand).

Currency: reverse head and shoulders pointing to 168.

28th September: The low trading volume last week gives the index a low chance of reaching short term target at 990. But for the moment the pattern is valid. There are lots of resistances that the index would have to overcome if it were to rally beyond 990. The currency, on the other hand, is giving hopeful signs.

Current prediction

Short term:  a reverse head and shoulders with target of 990 or thereabouts. Volume is not persuasive. The pattern could easily fail.

Long term: head and shoulders top has a logarithmic target of 614. The weekly chart points to 157, but the upward sloping neckline might invalidate the pattern (or give us a reason to stick our heads in the sand).

Currency: reverse head and shoulders pointing to 168.

21st September: 990 is possible in the short term. However, the reversal pattern is not a good one. Therefore, we cannot rely on the target. If the index does manage to get to 990, the long term daily chart suggests that it will turn at this point.

Current prediction

Short term:  a reverse head and shoulders with target of 990 or thereabouts. Volume is not persuasive. The pattern could easily fail.

Long term: head and shoulders top has a logarithmic target of 614. The weekly chart points to 157, but the upward sloping neckline might invalidate the pattern (or give us a reason to stick our heads in the sand).

Currency: none

14th September: My secretary just finished making a nice new weekly chart for the index. It points to 157. Ouch! But surely that couldn't be, you say. Oh yes it could, I say, by the middle of next year, in fact. So beware of any rally that takes the index back merely 1,200. Check out the charts below for more detail.

Current prediction

Short term: 840 on an arithmetic scale for a head and shoulders top (log is 950). That happened a couple of weeks ago.

Long term: head and shoulders top has a logarithmic target of 536 to 600. The weekly chart points to 157, but the upward sloping neckline might invalidate the pattern (or give us a reason to stick our heads in the sand).

Currency: none

7th September: The index has fallen through our short term target. There is now a long term target of 536. But there is no reason to suppose we shouldn't see a rally before that bearish target is achieved.

Thanks again to those of you who assisted in providing data for the new index. We don't have high low figures. If they become available, please send me a note.

Current prediction

Short term: 840 on an arithmetic scale for a head and shoulders top (log is 950).

Long term: head and shoulders top has a logarithmic target of 600.

Currency: none. But the currency is on good support.

31st August: As the headline says.

One of my web visitors told me that the index is changing its constituent stocks this week. I suppose that is one way to stop the index falling. But I don't know how it will help us monitor the trend. If any of you can tell me whether the old index will still be available I would be grateful.

Current prediction

Short term: 840 on an arithmetic scale for a head and shoulders top (log is 950).

Long term: head and shoulders top has a logarithmic target of 600.

Currency: none. But the currency is on good support.

24th August: The index has passed the 950 log target for our head and shoulders top. The arithmetic target now beckons.

Current prediction

Short term: 840 on an arithmetic scale for a head and shoulders top (log is 950).

Long term: head and shoulders top has a logarithmic target of 600.

Currency: none. But the currency is on good support.

12th August: The strong support at 1,050 finally broke. There's nothing much to stop the index reaching its target at 950 log, and if that fails, as occurred in KL last week, we can expect the arithmetic target of 840.

Current prediction

Short term: 840 on an arithmetic scale for a head and shoulders top (log is 950).

Long term: head and shoulders top has a logarithmic target of 600.

Currency: none

3rd August: The Singapore market has held on for a few weeks at the 1,050 level. It could be making a double bottom at this level. But there is no volume building up. We would need to see more volume for a rally. In the absence of volume, presume that the index is going down to target, as low as 840 in the short term.

Current prediction

Short term: 840 on an arithmetic scale for a head and shoulders top (log is 950).

Long term: head and shoulders top has a logarithmic target of 600.

Currency: none

27th July: The trend is still down. Lower targets of at least 950 are still outstanding. But there is a chance of a rally if the index breaks above 1,090 on good volume.

Current prediction

Short term: 840 on an arithmetic scale for a head and shoulders top (log is 950).

Long term: head and shoulders top has a logarithmic target of 600.

14th July: All signs point down further. There is no indication of a reversal at present. The head and shoulders is still operative.

6th July: The only encouraging news is on the short term fund chart, where the index has broken out of a channel. Not enough I'm afraid. The chances are that the index is going down to the first target at 950 (log) or 840 arithmetic scale. The currency should find support at 1.74.

Current prediction

Short term: 840 on an arithmetic scale for a head and shoulders top (log is 950)

Long term: head and shoulders top has a logarithmic target of 600.

29th June: The market still looks like it is falling to 950 at least, if not 840, in the short term. The lower, arithmetic, target could be reached by the end of July. A new long term term target of 600 is now valid.

Current prediction

Short term: 840 on an arithmetic scale for a head and shoulders top (log is 950)

Long term: head and shoulders top has a logarithmic target of 600.

22nd June: A head and shoulders top should take the market down to 950 on a logarithmic scale and 840 on an arithmetic scale. Possible intervention by the double top support.

Current prediction

Short term: 840 on an arithmetic scale for a head and shoulders top (log is 950)

Long term: Gloom scenario of 700 is cancelled, but we might have to take it out and dust it off soon. Important support is at 1,190.

Currency: 1.59 resistance

1st June: Mixed signals: the index could be heading to it's previous low, or, it could be supported at or near the current level. Pay attention to the long term support on the weekly chart at 1,190. If it fails, it is possible that the index could fall to 700 by end of July.

Current prediction

Short term: 1,200 target for head and shoulders top. Possible lower target with new pattern.

Long term: Gloom scenario of 700 is cancelled, but we might have to take it out and dust it off soon. Important support is at 1,190.

Currency: 1.68 is valid. Then 1.74 is likely

25th May: I don't expect the market to reverse at the current level. We should at least see 1,260 but more likely 1,210.

Current prediction

Short term: 1,200 target for head and shoulders top.

Long term: Gloom scenario of 700 is cancelled, but we might have to take it out and dust it off soon.

Currency: 1.68 is valid. Then 1.74 is likely

18th May: The index passed the first target of 1,370 last week. It is now heading for 1,200, where it will have good long term support. But the currency is heading for 1.68. At that point, a double bottom pattern looks likely to send the currency to 1.74.

Current prediction

Short term: 1,200 target for head and shoulders top.

Long term: Gloom scenario of 700 is cancelled, but we might have to take it out and dust it off soon.

Currency: 1.68 is valid. Then 1.74 is likely



11th May: The index is now on its way to 1,200 and the currency could be weakening to 1.69.

Current prediction

Short term: 1,200 target for head and shoulders top.

Long term: Gloom scenario of 700 is cancelled, but we might have to take it out and dust it off soon.
4th May: A new head and shoulders top is forming with a target of 1,210. But the currency has made a valid pattern pointing to 1.525. Good long term supports might intervene.

Current prediction

Short term: 1,370 target for head and shoulders top. At this level, a new top will break, pointing to 1,210. But the currency is strengthening and could reach 1.525 by the end of May.

Long term: Gloom scenario of 700 is cancelled, but we might have to take it out and dust it off soon.

20th April: The short term index chart points to 1,370. But the long term support holds the index well at the current level. We'll have to see which wins out.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Long term: Gloom scenario of 700 is cancelled, but we might have to take it out and dust it off soon.

11th April: The index is making a little head and shoulders pattern that could see a fall to 1,370 in the short term.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Long term: Gloom scenario of 700 is cancelled, but we might have to take it out and dust it off soon.

20th March: The fund chart has broken out of a fine reversal pattern. But there is strong resistance facing the index at 1,750. The long term resistance broke this week. This is another bullish sign. The currency, on the other hand, is showing weakness, which might well be shrugged off, given the regional currency trend towards appreciation.

Current prediction

Short term: reverse head and shoulders pointing to 2,000

Long term: Gloom scenario of 700 is cancelled.

16th March: The index meandered last week, albeit in a bullish pattern. But the currency strengthened, overcoming a major resistance.

Current prediction

Short term: reverse head and shoulders pointing to 2,000

Long term: Gloom scenario of 700 is cancelled.

9th March: The index narrowly held onto the neckline of the reverse head and shoulders pattern from which it had previously broken. Any weakness this week will cancel the pattern.

Current prediction

Short term: reverse head and shoulders pointing to 2,250

Long term: Gloom scenario of 700 is cancelled.

23rd February: The index and currency are making reversal patterns, but are facing crucial resistance this week, as are all of the ASEAN markets and Korea.

Current prediction

Short term: reverse head and shoulders pointing to 2,000, provided the index stays above 1,450.

Long term: 700 on the weekly chart, courtesy of a head and shoulders, cancelled only if the index closes, one Friday, above 1,600.

16th February: The index still has a valid target of 2,000. But the long term picture does not look strong. Also, the fund reversal has been put on hold.

Current prediction

Short term: reverse head and shoulders pointing to 2,000, provided the index stays above 1,450.

Long term: 700 on the weekly chart, courtesy of a head and shoulders, cancelled only if the index closes, one Friday, above 1,600.
10th February: Short term indications are good. The index looks like it will continue rallying. The currency is strengthening. But all of the clouds have not blown away. The long term picture still looks dangerous. Read on.

Current prediction

Short term: reverse head and shoulders pointing to 2,000.

Long term: 700 on the weekly chart, courtesy of a head and shoulders, cancelled only if the index closes, one Friday, above 1,600.

26th January: The index is trapped in tough medium term resistance. The fund is also facing the same sort of resistance. Further falls likely. But not this week of belly-stuffing, feasting and merriment.

Current prediction

Short term: triangle pointing to 1,000 is cancelled according to the rule, "near enough is good enough".

Long term: 810 on the weekly chart, courtesy of a head and shoulders.

5th January: Am I drunk George, or could this be true? The weekly chart has just broken the head and shoulders top pointing to 810. This suggests that Singapore, the last bastion of defence in the Asian decline, is soon to break.

The index hit our short term target of 1,510 last week. Now we can expect support at 1,490, a possible reversal at that point, but more likely, a further plunge to the new low of 1,450.

Current prediction

Short term: double top pointing to 1,510. Target fulfilled last week

Medium term: Head and shoulders top pointing to 1,450

Long term: 810 on the weekly chart, courtesy of a head and shoulders.



1997

29th December: The index continues to fall to the short term target of 1,510.

Current prediction

Short term: double top pointing to 1,510

Medium term: Head and shoulders top pointing to 1,450

22ndDecember: The index continues to fall to the short term target of 1,510.

Current prediction

Short term: double top pointing to 1,510

Medium term: Head and shoulders top pointing to 1,450

13th December: Predictions come and go. Is nothing constant in this world? 'fraid not. The falls last week put the index back in the head and shoulders pointing to 1,400. Let's hope it's a gradual decline, next May or sometime like that, otherwise we could see 700.

8th December: The medium term chart broke throught the neckline of our head and shoulders top, cancelling the prediction of 1,400. A little triangle in the short term picture would confirm the cancellation if it follows Malaysia and breaks upside. But the fund is still dangerous.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Long term: Head and shoulders top pointing to 1,600 - minimum target reached.

1st December: Nothing much happened during the last two weeks. I have cancelled my prediction of 1,400 out of prudence. But I'm not ruling it out as possibility. If the Japan thing goes bad, as I believe, Singapore is unlikely to escape. The fund suggests another big fall is awaiting the market.

27th October: What a dive! The index fufilled the target that I have been suggesting since October 28 last year (and, George, that I mentioned over that fine chianti and squid ink pasta last May): namely, a fall to 1,640. The index fell below that level last week. So much for all that procrastination, hesitation, denial.

Remember that the targetis a minimum target. The index could still fall further. And I'm afraid the fund chart looks set to fall another 26%.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Long term: Head and shoulders top pointing to 1,600 - minimum target reached. Now what? Long term support should now be considered

20th October: Now it appears that the STI is making an ascending triangle. Good news if this happens. But the fund chart shows mixed signals.

13th October: The reversal pattern alluded to last week is still a possibility. But so is a head and shoulders top in the fund price which could see a 50% fall.

Current prediction

Short term: possible reverse head and shoulders.

Long term: Head and shoulders top pointing to 1,600

15th September: The only clear piece of good news, that might be a harbinger for the rest of the ASEAN region: the STI has broken out of the blue descending channel that has contained it since January. It could also be making a reverse head and shoulders, but the target for this would merely be the resistance at 2,100.

8th September: Long term support looks good, but the fund chart shows a mere pullback to a double bottom.

1st September: I'm afraid any hope of forestalling a massacre on this bourse has now vanished. The long term chart points clearly to the target of 1,600, with a support, on the way, at 1,780. The fund pattern supports the prognosis.

Current prediction

Short term: see the chart below. It suggests that 1,830 will be tested.

Long term: Head and shoulders top pointing to 1,600

25th August: Nothing exciting last week. The index is still trapped in the short term descending channel. The long term support is still holding. Still dangerous and uncertain.

18th August: Alas, Friday's three percent gain only took the index to the resistance point of the the descending channel that has been weighing the index down all year. The weekly chart is still holding firmly, but the fund failed to rise on Friday15th, in line with the index. Instead, it is in danger of making a double top which will see at least 20% further falls.

Current prediction

Short term: see the chart below. It suggests that 1,830 will be tested.

Long term: The prospect of 1,600 looks more likely as the index cannot break away from the long term support. If this support fails, we must assume that the index will fall to our head and shoulders target of 1,600. See the weekly chart.

11th August: The battle of the channels continues. The seven month channel is sucking the index down, while the seven year support again held firm last week. Perhaps this week will see some resolution to the question.

Current prediction: none at the moment. If the current seven year support fails, which would be unlikely, we must assume that the index will fall to our head and shoulders target of 1,600.

4th August: The long term support is the thing to focus on this week, as with Malaysia and Philippines. At the moment the index is trapped in the medium term descending channel, shown in the chart below by the blue lines.

Current prediction: none at the moment

28th July: Last week's gains were capped by a resistance that has been holding the index down since January. Further rises will get the index out of its downward channel and make a nice turn on the long term support. Volume is impressive.

20th July: As with Malaysia and Singapore, salvation may lie in the long term chart.

14th July: It's touch and go with this market. See the comments above each chart.

8th July: The fund may indicate that a miracle is happening that will save the index from the miserable fate that I predicted last week. It has broken out of a reverse head and shoulders and points to a rise of 7% or so. This would remove a great cloud from the ASEAN horizon.

Current prediction: some cause for optimism, notwithstanding the long term chart.

Medium term: The descending triangle with target of 1,700 is cancelled. It could have been a shakeout.

Long term: A head and shoulders with target of 1,600. Volume rising makes the prediction invalid. But Singapore has a precedent of head and shoulders working with the wrong volume.

29th June: A fall below 1,980 put the index below the neckline of a possible descending triangle. It also fell below our nice rounding bottom. The weekly chart still channels down below the neckline of our head and shoulders.

Current prediction: I suppose no reason to continue procrastinating.

Medium term: A descending triangle with target of 1,700. Decreasing volume supports the pattern. Note the similar triangle in the first quarter of 1996.

Long term: A head and shoulders with target of 1,600. Volume rising makes the prediction invalid. But Singapore has a precedent of head and shoulders working with the wrong volume.

...lets hope something miraculous cancels the doom prediction this week.

23rd June: Nothing new this week. The index is still in its downward channel (green and red lines) but the medium term picture is still supported in the rounded bottom.

Current prediction: None yet. The index could be contained at current levels by a rounded bottom formation, which usually means it could take a long time to make significant gains.

16th June: The index fell through our support at 2,000 last week and is now resting on the previous recent low of around 1,980. This point is below the neckline of our long term head and shoulders, pointing to 1,600. Will the index fall to this level? Several arguments point to the contrary?

The 18 month chart, below, may hold the key to the strange behaviour of this index. The curved green line shows a rounding bottom formation with four touches. This could be a support for the index. Let's see if it holds this week. The fund chart also looks positive, although it is currently congested at current levels. Also, the ASEAN chart looks good. Accordingly, the index may not drop to 1,600. Fingers crossed.

9th June: The index made a little head and shoulders last week that suggests a fall back to the 2,000 level. Our reverse head and shoulders, as discussed last week, is therefore unlikely. Perhaps a double bottom will emerge at the 2,000 level, failing which, there is nothing to contain the index until 1,850.

2nd June: Consolidation in Singapore continues, making a nice symmetrical right shoulder for our possible reverse head and shoulders pattern.

26th May: A reverse head and shoulders is still on the cards, as shown by the pink lines and arrow. Volume is conducive to a reverse head and shoulders. Fingers crossed.

20th May: The market could go either way at the moment. If it breaks above 2,100 we will have a nice little reverse head and shoulders that will take the index above the green channel and happy days ahead. If it falls below 2,050, the danger is a fall to 1,900 and then, failing a strong rebound, alas, 1,600. But fear not. The increase in volume since end of March bodes very nicely for the formation of reverse head and shoulders. This is the most probable formation and our greatest hope.

12th May: The market was up to around 2090 this morning. It looks as though we could get a shoulder in this range and make a reverse head and shoulders. That would cancel our gloom prediction of 1,970 and take the index back up to the dark green line.

5th May: The index is still trapped in a narrow descending channel. We have a possible target of 1,970. Nothing shows a reversal at the current level, unless we get an accumulation at 2,050 with high volume, making a little reverse head and shoulders. This is what happened last November. But then, at least, we had a good support to rest on. At current levels, the index is in limbo.

28th April: The long term picture has broken through the neckline of a huge head and shoulders top. However, like other recent head and shoulders tops, the volume pattern does not support a valid prediction. Instead of falling off, as a head and shoulders top should do, volume in Singapore has been rising steadily for the past two years. Thus I would not expect the minimum of 1,600, even if the index keeps falling.

A likely point of support is the 1,900 level, which corresponds to a support on the ten year chart. Unfortunately I don't have a copy of the chart on disk. But looking at the 15 month chart, the 1,900 point could be reached by the end of May while still keeping within our current green descending channel

8th April: A bit of consolidation to mirror the previous accumulation at the 2050 level. Pray that this holds. If it doesn't, look forward to 1650. Could be preparation for a double bottom or merely a pennant preceding another huge fall.

Oh, but you want to know what I think will happen? I wonder why? I've been wrong on just about every Singapore prediction since the start of this web site. Ah, I see. You want to know what I think so that you can do the opposite. Smart thinking! Sorry, I'm keeping my mouth shut until I have something worth saying. That might take a couple of weeks.

28th March: The index is still trending down; ie, we're still in this steep descending channel. It didn't test the 2050 region. But it looks as though this might happen soon.

24th March: The index turned this morning. There's good support at the current levels. But another week is needed to see if we have consolidation at the current levels.

The head and shoulders that I avoided for the past few weeks has exceded its minimum target. This is one for the X-files: strange phenomona, a head and shoulders top with contradictory volume pattern.

17th March: Sorry about that, all you Singaporean visitors. Closer inspection of our long term chart puts the support at its current level of around 2,130, and not 2,150, as we reported last week. A bit of consolidation around this lower support would not be surprising. Fingers crossed.

10th March: This is getting a bit too hairy for comfort. What's going on? Looks like our pink neckline isn't operating. It failed to contain the recent falls. But our volume picture keeps rising. That means that we don't have a reversal pattern yet. Now, if, for example, the volume pattern, starting from December, were the mirror image of itself, we would have an ominous triple top, or a garden variety head and shoulders top, portending a fall to at least 2,100. But the volume accompanying each peak has been successively higher. This does not indicate a reversal. We may therefore keep our fingers crossed that the weakness that we have seen in the past month is merely a consolidation.

3rd March: This cheeky index is really testing our patience. After a spectacular post Chinese New Year rise, the index plummetted back to the support of the rising channel. Volume, on the other hand, has risen nicely. We can therefore dismiss the possibility of a double top or head and shoulders top and sit tight

14th February: There, I told you not to worry! Just a little Chinese New Year indigestion allowed the index to slip down to the bottom of the channel. There's nothing to stop it until 2,300. Nice volume too.

10th February: Woops! The second pullback that I wrote about last week got a little carried away and fell below our neckline. Not to worry. The incursion is probably a blip inspired by the lack of liquidity last week as Singaporeans were off pigging out on Chinese New Year banquets and passing around little red envelopes.

The upward channel shown in the chart suggests a rising reverse head and shoulders that may take a few more months to form, but which may portend a rise to 2,500.

Our target of 2,400 is still reasonably intact, barring further falls this week.

3rd February: The pullback discussed last week continued to take us back to our neckline. This is the second pullback to our neckline of the reverse head and shoulders shown in the chart below. According to theory, two pullbacks are all we are allowed. We should now see the index take off for our target of 2,400. Volume is picking up nicely to support the move.

Note that volume on the second pullback is higher than that of the first pullback. Accordingly, we can dismiss the idea of a double top. (If it were a double top, we would expect the volume from December to be the mirror image of its actual formation.)

A break above 2,300 will give us a new neckline (brown line) and should therefore push our target up a few hundred points.

27th January: The index made a second pullback last week. Nothing to worry about. Volume is good and our prediction of at least 2,380 is still valid.

20th January: Volume picked up last week with very heavy volume on Friday. This supports our bullish scenario shown by the pink arrow.

13th January: The index consolidated above the neckline of our reverse head and shoulders last week. And good volume returned, strengthening our argument that the index will soon touch 2,400.

4th January: Very close to our neckline. Let's see whether we get a breakout in strong volume in the next week or two. If so we can expect a good 10% rise in the index in the near term.



1996

23rd December: A nice reverse head and shoulders is forming. The neckline is the pink line. Note that the fund above has a similar pattern which has already broken out.

16th December: The 14 day average has crossed the 30 day moving average, pointing to a correction in the short term. 2090 would be a reasonable projection.

10th December: The short term picture appears to be making a reverse head and shoulders. A breakout above 2240 would be very bullish. But the long term picture appears to be making a normal head and shoulders. A fall below 2050 would take the index down 500 points.

25th November: Last week's rally has consolidated without retracing to 2130. Compare the fund chart below.

18th November: Well look at that! The market broke up through its neckline and hit the 2200 resistance point. It is now possible that the index is making a reverse head and shoulders. Expect a shoulder or two to form on the right hand side with high volume over the next one or two months for this scenario to be valid. This scenario would entail a few more returns to the 2120 region. The fund chart below shows a nice double bottom. This supports our bullish scenario.

9th November: Those optimistic about the fortunes of the STII may take encouragement from the fact that the index pulled back through the neckline of its head and shoulders (blue broken line). I would be a little cautious still, before re-entering the market. Wait for a little consolidation at least. 1970 is still on the cards.

October 28th: Poor Singapore is having a rough time. A head and shoulders on the two year chart (not shown) has just been broken, although not on high volume. If valid, this will take the market to 1640.

The symmetrical triangle, with end run (albeit high volume) will take the market to 1970. Reaching this target would confirm the head and shoulders and the downward move to 1700.


History  from 2000 to current year


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