History of Taipei Weighted Stock Index
2009

1st June: The index continues to rally, giving rise to the fear that the current rally may be too much too soon.

11th May: The index rallied on good volume. But there is no technical signal to indicate wether the rally will continue or whether we are merely seeing the last gush of buying enthusiasm in a bear market. Strictly speaking the trend is still bearish. The regional trend would suggest otherwise. We'll have to wait and see whether the index reaches resistance at 7,500 and if it turns at that point.

2nd May: The market rallied substantially last week. The MSCI Taiwan index reached target intraday immediately, leaving nothing much more to be forecast from the pattern in the first chart. Looking at the long term daily chart, I still get the feeling that this market has rallied too fast too soon. But there is nothing substantial to suggest an imminent correction.

20th April: The etf chart gives hope for further upside. But volume is lacking. Note the resistance on the second chart.

13th April: The has reached target. But now what? I have no idea. Keep in mind the prospect for a failure and return to the 4,000 level. A longer period of bottoming would not surprise.

Current Target

Short term: double bottom points to 5.600 - done

Currency: none

16th March: The index is making a credible short term bottom. Volume is good. But the bottom is unlikely to reverse the long term bear trend.

Current Target

Short term: double bottom points to 5.600

16th March: The index is making a credible short term bottom. But the bottom is unlikely to reverse the long term bear trend. A blue chip stock, Taiwan Semiconductor, on the other hand, is making a persuasive bottom.

2nd March: Supports in the first and second charts. A credible bottom would likely take all of this year to form.

23rd February: There is good support at the current level on the long term chart and a credible bottoming scenario in the first chart. Time and volume will tell whether anything comes of it.

2nd February: There is good support at the current level on the long term chart. But bottoming will take a while.

10th January 2009: The short term bottom in the first chart is not inspiring. It lacks volume to persuade of even a short term rally.


2008
22nd December: The index shows a promising bottom scenario for the short term. The second chart reminds us that long term bottoming could take a lot longer. Currency seems to be well supported.

3rd November: The index is close to good support on the weekly chart.

27th October: The index is close to good support on the weekly chart.

20th October: Targets done. Now we should wait for a bottom.

Current Prediction

Medium term: 1. double top points to daily chart  (log) 5,600- done; (arithmetic) 5,000 - done
                          2. weekly chart double top points  (log) 6,100; done arithmetic 5,700 - done

Currency: none

10th October: Targets done. Now we should wait for a bottom.

Current Prediction

Medium term: 1. double top points to daily chart  (log) 5,600- done; (arithmetic) 5,000
                          2. weekly chart double top points  (log) 6,100; done arithmetic 5,700 - done

6th October: Log targets have been reached arithmetic target has been reached on the weekly chart. But nothing indicates a reversal of the bear trend.

Current Prediction

Medium term: 1. double top points to daily chart  (log) 5,600- done; (arithmetic) 5,000
                          2. weekly chart double top points  (log) 6,100; done arithmetic 5,700 - done

Currency: none

20th September: Log targets have been reached. But nothing indicates a reversal of the bear trend.

Current Prediction

Medium term: 1. double top points to daily chart  (log) 5,600- done; (arithmetic) 5,000
                          2. weekly chart double top points  (log) 6,100; done arithmetic 5,700

Currency: none

15th September: Clear top breakouts point to 5,600 on the daily chart and 6,100 on the weekly chart. Highly likely. Any surprise interruption would be due to the supports in the second and third charts.

Current Prediction

Medium term: 1. double top points to daily chart  (log) 5,600; (arithmetic) 5,000
                          2. weekly chart double top points  (log) 6,100; arithmetic 5,700

Currency: none

8th September: Clear top breakouts point to 5,600 on the daily chart and 6,100 on the weekly chart. Highly likely.

25th August: Clear top breakouts point to 5,600 on the daily chart and 6,100 on the weekly chart. Highly likely. However, support on the log chart at the current level is strong. It will be interesting to see which prevails: the support on the log chart or the tops.

Current Prediction

Medium term: 1. double top points to daily chart  (log) 5,600; (arithmetic) 5,000
                          2. weekly chart double top points  (log) 6,100; arithmetic 5,700

Currency: bottoming

18th August: Clear top breakouts point to 5,600 on the daily chart and 6,100 on the weekly chart. Highly likely. However, support on the log chart at the current level is strong. It will be interesting to see which prevails: the support on the log chart or the tops.

Current Prediction

Medium term: 1. double top points to daily chart  (log) 5,600; (arithmetic) 5,000
                          2. weekly chart double top points  (log) 6,100; arithmetic 5,700

Currency: bottoming

4th August: Clear top breakouts point to 5,600 on the daily chart and 6,100 on the weekly chart. Highly likely.

21st July: Clear top breakouts point to 5,600 on the daily chart and 6,100 on the weekly chart. Highly likely.

14th July: No change: A top on the daily chart has broken out but marginally. The same pattern on the weekly chart is more persuasive, suggesting a fall to 6,100. However the breakout is not yet confirmed. There are still supports that could cancel the top.

Current Prediction

Medium term: 1. double top points to daily chart  (log) 5,600; (arithmetic) 5,000
                          2. weekly chart double top points  (log) 6,100; arithmetic 5,700

Currency: bottoming

7th July: A top on the daily chart has broken out but marginally. The same pattern on the weekly chart is more persuasive, suggesting a fall to 6,100. However the breakout is not yet confirmed. There are still supports that could cancel the top.

Current Prediction

Medium term: double top points to daily chart  (log) 5,600; (arithmetic) 5,000 ; weekly chart (log) 6,100; arithmetic 5,700

Currency: bottoming

30th June: The index is well supported. But a fall below 7,300 would suggest an end to the bull market.

12th May: Still looking bullish. But the resistance at 9,700, if the index gets that far, will be telling.

Current Prediction

Short term: reverse head and shoulders points to 9,700.

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency: bottoming

5th May: The index is heading for long term target. Keep an eye on the long term weekly chart, which shows a strong neckline at 10,000 and a bullish scenario if that level were to break.

28th April: The index is heading for long term target. Keep an eye on the long term weekly chart, which shows a strong neckline at 10,000 and a bullish scenario if that level were to break.

Current Prediction

Short term: reverse head and shoulders points to 9,700.

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency: bottoming

21st April: The index is heading for long term target. Keep an eye on the long term weekly chart, which shows a strong neckline at 10,000 and a bullish scenario if that level were to break.

Current Prediction

Short term: reverse head and shoulders points to 9,700.

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency: bottoming

14th April: The index has turned on neckline support of the pattern in the first chart, giving a pretty good chance at 9,700.

Current Prediction

Short term: reverse head and shoulders points to 9,700.

7th April: The index has pulled back a bit too far. But it still looks promising.

Current Prediction

Short term: reverse head and shoulders points to 9,700.

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency: bottoming

31st March: The index has broken out of a short term reversal pattern giving a chance at 9,700

Current Prediction

Short term: reverse head and shoulders points to 9,700.

24th March: The index has broken out of a short term reversal pattern giving a chance at 9,700

Current Prediction

Short term: reverse head and shoulders points to 9,700.

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency: bottoming

10th March: The index rebounded on a good channel support shown nicely in the first and second charts. What happens next is anyone's guess.

3rd March: The market has turned on good supports in both the index and ETF fund charts. A top scenario still threatens. But long term support on the log chart (second below) suggests that the index could be saved by a very good long term support.

25th February: The market has turned on good supports in both the index and ETF fund charts. A top scenario still threatens. But long term support on the log chart (second below) suggests that the index could be saved by a very good long term support.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency: bottoming

21st January: Confusing picture: a top on the index chart but good support on the ETF chart. The top is difficult to ignore. A fall below 8,200 would suggest even more danger of a fall, at least to 7,000.

14th January: Confusing picture: a top on the index chart but good support on the ETF chart. The top is difficult to ignore. A fall below 8,200 would suggest even more danger of a fall, at least to 7,000.

7th January 2008: Confusing picture: a top on the index chart but good support on the ETF chart. The top is difficult to ignore. A fall below 8,200 would suggest even more danger of a fall, at least to 7,000.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency: bottoming


2007
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
21st May: The first chart shows a turn on a strong resistance at the current level. This resistance has been trying our patience. But something decisive must soon occur.

14th May: The first chart shows a turn on a strong resistance at the current level. The ETF chart gives cause for hope for further upside.

23rd April: The first chart shows a turn on a strong resistance at the current level. The ETF chart gives cause for hope for further upside.

 
 
 
 
 

19th February: The last few weeks have seen the index moving in a tight range. Something must break soon. The ETF chart shows good support.

 

29th January: The index faces resistance at around 8,100 in the first chart. At that point we would either expect a top, or a breakout upside. There is plenty of room for upside in the long term index and fund charts.

22nd January: The index faces resistance at around 8,000 in the first chart. At that point we would either expect a top, or a breakout upside. There is plenty of room for upside in the long term index and fund charts.

 

8th January: No great indication from the index. But the ETF chart shows good upside.

11th December: The index has rallied to a strong resistance. If it breaks, there is plenty of upside, as shown in the second chart.

4th December: A new high for the year gives impetus to the current bullish trend.

20th November:The market is likely to follow the regional trend: more likely bullish than bearish.

 
 

18th September: The index appears to be bottoming, but on low volume. Not particularly encouraging.

 

21st August: A possible bottom in the first chart. But the outlook is not inspiring due to weak volume.

7th August: Nothing persuasive, just a few scenarios. The top scenario in the second chart is the most dangerous. A fall below 6,200 would set it off.

 
 
19th June: The index is in danger of making a top, with a target of 5,400.
 6th March:  The index looks safe provided it stays above the short term support in the first chart at around 6,550.

Current Prediction

Short term:  double top points to 6,370

Medium term: none

Long term: Triangle breakout gives tentative target of 8,000

Currency: none

20th February: The green triangle in the second chart is the most persuasive indicator. A new high at around 6,800 would at strength to the target.

Current Prediction

Short term:  none

Medium term:

Long term: Triangle breakout gives tentative target of 8,000

Currency: none

13th February: Still a bullish outlook in the second chart, which should be preferred to the bearish scenario in the first chart unless the index falls below 6,400.

Current Prediction

Short term:  none

Medium term:

Long term: Triangle breakout gives tentative target of 8,000

Currency: none

6th February:  The bullish target in the second chart is still the operative indicator. However, it might take a few weeks before the bullish trend is confirmed.

Current Prediction

Short term:  none

Medium term:

Long term: Triangle breakout gives tentative target of 8,000

Currency: none

30th January:   The index has turned on triangle breakout point, almost confirming our target of 8,000. The ETF fund chart is very bullish, but would need another few trading sessions to confirm the likely bullish trend.

Current Prediction

Short term:  none

Medium term:

Long term: Triangle breakout gives tentative target of 8,000

23rd January: The outlook for this market is still bullish provided we don't see a fall below 6,300.

Current Prediction

Short term:  none

Medium term:

Long term: Triangle breakout gives tentative target of 8,000

23rd January: The outlook for this market is still bullish provided we don't see a fall below 6,300.

Current Prediction

Short term:  none

Medium term:

Long term: Triangle breakout gives tentative target of 8,000

Currency: none

9th January: Good chance of 8,000 in coming months, thanks to the breakout from the triangle pattern in the first chart.

Current Prediction

Short term:  none

Medium term:

Long term: Triangle breakout gives tentative target of 8,000

Currency: none


2005

24th December: A breakout from the triangle in the second chart gives a tentative target of 8,000.

Current Prediction

Short term:  none

Medium term:

Long term: Triangle breakout gives tentative target of 8,000

Currency: none

19th December: A nice turn on support gives hope for a short term breakout. But the real test is the resistance in the second chart. A breakout from that resistance, at around 6,400, would be a bullish signal.

12th December: A bullish short term pattern on the EWT fund chart, a triangle on the medium term chart and a bottoming currency suggest that the market is preparing for a strong rally.

5th December: A breakout on good volume from resistance in the first chart gives rise to hope that the index may be about to enter a substantial rally, after being trapped in a range for about a year and a half. The index would need to break out of a series of resistances at 6,500 to 6,700 before we could be confident of long term rally.

28th November: The index is now testing short term resistance. With luck it will consolidate for a few more weeks or months and then break out upside in the new year, following the scenario in the first chart.

21st November: The scenario in the first chart is worth watching. A breakout next month on strong volume would be an indication of a bullish trend emerging. The EWT fund chart is also interesting.

14th November: A short term reversal scenario and an encouraging long term scenario for the NYSE exchange traded fund EWT suggest that the market could be turning bullish.

7th November: Impressive rebound with island reversal could put this market back on a bull track. Next test is at 6,000.

31st October: The index has a bearish scenario and the ETF "EWT' has a bearish target.  Support in the second chart has broken.

17th October: The index is supported. Currency is nearing support.

10th October: Not a lot to consider for this market. Support at 5,800 is the one to watch.

26th September: Next support at 5,800 in the first chart. Support in the second chart is at around the same level. Failure of support in the Taiwan ETF (traded in the US) is ominous. Keep an eye on the support in the second chart, at around 5,800.

Current Prediction

Short term:  double top points to 5,900 - done

19th September: The index is now testing a good support. If it fails, 5,900 is likely, and then 5,800, the next support.

Current Prediction

Short term:  double top points to 5,900

12th September: Still the risk of downward pressure in the short term unless the index rallies above 6,200.

Current Prediction

Short term:  double top points to 5,900

5th September:The index is fairly well supported at the current level and the currency is well supported.

Current Prediction

Short term:  double top points to 5,900

29th August: A double top points to 5,900.

Current Prediction

Short term:  double top points to 5,900

22nd August: The index has made a little top suggesting a fall back to 6,000, or slightly below.

Current Prediction

Short term:  double top points to 5,900

8th August: A bit more volume makes the pattern in the first chart, below, a bit more persuasive. But only a bit. The index is still not making a clear trend, other than that which commenced in May this year.

1st August: A good spurt of volume last week could help the index if it breaks out to 6,500.

20th July: The index is meandering on low volume. Nothing to predict.

11th July: Still nothing exciting. The index has failed the resistance at 6,400, as expected. More turnover would be required before the index can sustain a rally.

Current Prediction

Short term:

Medium term:

Long term:  none

Currency: bottom points to around 30.6

27th June:  The index has broken out of a medium term bottom. But low volume makes the pattern unpersuasive.

20th June: The index has rallied to resistance at 6,300. This is a big test. Turnover for the market is not strong. Let's see if the resistance breaks.

Current Prediction

Short term:

Medium term:

Long term:  none

Currency: bottom points to around 30.6

6th June:  A small bottom in the first chart lacks sufficient volume to be persuasive. Until we get volume, the market is just drifting around.

16th May: Nothing exciting with this market and nothing clear to go on.

25th April: Failure of the red support in the first chart is bearish.

11th April: The weekly chart shows a double bottom scenario with breakout at around 7,500. Upper resistance would be at around 11,000 - in the years to come.

Current Prediction

Short term:

Medium term:

Long term:  reverse head and shoulders points to 7,000 - not yet confirmed

Currency: bottom points to around 30.6

4th April: Nice turn on support in the first chart. But turnover for the market is too low to be enthusiastic.

Current Prediction

Short term:

Medium term:

Long term:  reverse head and shoulders points to 7,000 - not yet confirmed

Currency: bottom points to around 30.6

21st March: Support at around 5,900. But nothing very exciting going on.

Current Prediction

Short term:

Medium term:

Long term:  reverse head and shoulders points to 7,000 - not yet confirmed

Currency: bottom points to around 30.6

14th March: Short term top danger if the index falls below 6,160. But there is good support at 6,200, even if the bottom pattern is not confirmed.

Current Prediction

Short term:

Medium term:

Long term:  reverse head and shoulders points to 7,000 - not yet confirmed

Currency: bottom points to around 30.6

8th March: The market does not have sufficient volume to confirm target of 7,000. Currency has passed target and is now on strong resistance.

Current Prediction

Short term:

Medium term:

Long term:  reverse head and shoulders points to 7,000 - not yet confirmed

Currency: bottom points to around 30.6

21st February: The index is about to break out of a pattern in the medium term chart. But volume is too low for confidence. If we get a surge of volume after the breakout, this could inspire confidence. Otherwise we would have a low probability target.

Current Prediction

Short term:

Medium term:

Long term:  none

Currency: bottom points to around 30.6

31st January: A nice pattern is forming in the first chart. But volume is still too weak to inspire confidence.

Current Prediction

Short term:

Medium term:

Long term: none

Currency: bottom points to around 30.6

17th January: A fall to 5,800 would dampen hopes of a medium term rally.

10th January: Nothing exciting: a support at the current level in the first chart. The weekly chart shows the long term picture. The index would need to break 7,000 before we get a good prediction.

Current Prediction

Short term:

Medium term:

Long term:  none

Currency: bottom points to around 30.6 


2004
20th December: No change from last week.

Current Prediction

Short term:

Medium term:

Long term:  none

Currency: bottom points to around 30.6

13th December: The index is lacklustre. Currency could weaken a bit in the short term.

Current Prediction

Short term:

Medium term:

Long term:  none

Currency: bottom points to around 30.6

6th December: No change for the index. But currency is zooming to target.

Current Prediction

Short term:

Medium term:

Long term:  none

Currency: bottom points to around 30.6

15th November: Next test is a neckline at 6,100 that could form a medium term reversal pattern. But volume needs to pick up substantially.

25th October: A fall to 5,500 would not hurt the medium term chances for the index. The third chart shows a long term bullish trend, which, in the absence of a top, we should consider will continue.

18th October: A breakout at 6,200 would give a target of around 7,000. That could take a few weeks. But there is good support approaching at 5,800. With luck the index will not fall much below that level.

Current Prediction

Short term:

Medium term: 1. double bottom (red) points to 6,350 - cancelled
                         2. double bottom (green) points to 6,750 -cancelled

11th October: A breakout from a medium term bottom gives a bullish hope for the market. Tentative target of 6,750.

4th October: The tops pointing to the 4,000 region are cancelled. A bottom is developing in the first chart. Breakout would be at around 6,000. Volume needs to pick up in order to make a persuasive target.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: 1. head and shoulders top points to 4,480 (log), 4,132 (arithmetic) - cancelled
                         2. double top (weekly) points to 4,600 - cancelled

Long term:  none

20th September: Nothing concrete to go on. The long term tops pointing to 4,600 are most likely cancelled. But there are no persuasive bottoming patterns yet.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: 1. head and shoulders top points to 4,480 (log), 4,132 (arithmetic) - doubtful
                         2. double top (weekly) points to 4,600 - doubtful

4th September: A nice reversal scenario in the first chart could see the index bottom.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: 1. head and shoulders top points to 4,480 (log), 4,132 (arithmetic)
                         2. double top (weekly) points to 4,600

Long term:  none

Currency: none

30th August: The bearish top with target of 4,480 is cancelled on the daily chart. But it is still valid on the weekly chart. A close at around 5,900 next Friday would dispose of the weekly top.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: 1. head and shoulders top points to 4,480 (log), 4,132 (arithmetic)
                         2. double top (weekly) points to 4,600

Long term:  none

23rd August: The index has rallied to the neckline of a head and shoulders top, pointing to 4,500. If the index rallies further, the top will be cancelled. Otherwise, we should assume the worst.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: 1. head and shoulders top points to 4,480 (log), 4,132 (arithmetic)
                         2. double top (weekly) points to 4,600

Long term:  none

Currency: none

9th August: A bit of consolidation last week, but the weekly chart shows the index moving towards bearish target.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: 1. double top points to 4,956
                         2. double top (weekly) points to 4,600

2nd August: Target of 4,950 is still valid.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: 1. double top points to 4,956
                         2. double top (weekly) points to 4,600

26th July: The bullish bottom is cancelled. We now have a top pointing to 4,600. Highly probable.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: 1. double top points to 4,956
                         2. double top (weekly) points to 4,600

Long term:  1. double bottom points to 8,600 ( daily) - cancelled
                    2. double bottom points to 9,400 (weekly) - cancelled

Currency: none

12th July: The index has conflicting targets. A close at 5,500 would suggest that the bearish target would take priority. A close above 6,200 on the weekly chart would favour the bullish target.

28th June: A double top points down. But the weekly double bottom, although not confirmed, is more likely to prevail. Support at the current level is critical for the weekly chart.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double top points to 4,956

Long term:  1. double bottom points to 8,600 ( daily) - revised neckline
                    2. double bottom points to 9,400 (weekly) - not yet confirmed

31st May: The short term double top is as good as cancelled. The bigger picture could turn out to be a confirmation of the long term double top. The weekly chart gives a clear bullish picture.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double top points to 4,956 - cancelled?

Long term:  1. double bottom points to 8,600 ( daily) - revised neckline
                    2. double bottom points to 9,400 (weekly) - not yet confirmed

Currency: none

10th May: The market is still bullish. But our current pattern is looking less persuasive. We may see a drop to 5,400 and a new pattern emerge.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double top points to 4,956 - confirmed if index closes below 5,700

Long term:  1. double bottom points to 9,400 ( daily) - tentatively reinstated
                    2. double bottom points to 9,400 (weekly) - not yet confirmed

Currency: none

3rd May: The index is in danger of topping. A close at 5,800 would likely see 5,400.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  1. double bottom points to 9,400 ( daily) - tentatively reinstated
                    2. double bottom points to 9,400 (weekly) - not yet confirmed

Currency: none

26th April: .Nothing exciting to report.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  1. double bottom points to 9,400 ( daily) - tentatively reinstated
                    2. double bottom points to 9,400 (weekly) - not yet confirmed

Currency: none

19th April: Possible medium term top in the first chart. But the long term bottom in the daily and weekly charts both look persuasive. Volume is good.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  1. double bottom points to 9,400 ( daily) - tentatively reinstated
                    2. double bottom points to 9,400 (weekly) - not yet confirmed

Currency: none

12th April: The turn on the neckline and rally with good volume gives further confirmation of our target of 9,400.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  1. double bottom points to 9,400 ( daily) - tentatively reinstated
                    2. double bottom points to 9,400 (weekly) - not yet confirmed

5th April: The index has rallied above the neckline of our double bottom reinstating target of 9,400.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  1. double bottom points to 9,400 ( daily) - tentatively reinstated
                    2. double bottom points to 9,400 (weekly) - not yet confirmed

Currency: none

15th March: No significant change from last week. A fall as low as 6,400 would not jeopardize our target of 9,400.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  1. double bottom points to 9,400 ( daily) - not yet confirmed
                    2. double bottom points to 9,400 (weekly) - not yet confirmed

8th March: Long term resistance (on the second chart) is approaching. Excellent volume and good pattern on the weekly chart are bullish.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom points to 9,400 ( daily and weekly) - not yet confirmed

1st March: The market inched up last week. Our target of 9,400 is still valid, but requires confirmation. A pullback to the neckline at 6,400 and a rally above 6,800 would suffice.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom points to 9,400 ( daily and weekly) - not yet confirmed

Currency: none

23rd February: Index has clearly broken out of a double bottom pointing to around 9,600. A pullback to the neckline and a turn would be a good confirmation of the target.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom points to 9.400 ( daily and weekly) - not yet confirmed

16th February: The index has broken out of a double bottom, but volume is not sufficient to confirm the pattern. Currency could also be bottoming.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom points to 9,200 ( daily and weekly) - not yet confirmed

Currency: none

9th February: Still waiting for a breakout at 6,400, which would signal the breakout from a double bottom and target above 9,000.

19th January: Still a few more conditions need to be fulfilled before we can get excited about a rally to the 9,000 level. See the first chart, below.

12th January: The index is probably bottoming, although it is giving no clear indication. A close above 6,600 would be encouraging. However for maximum confidence, volume needs to pick up substantially.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  none

Currency: none 


2003

29th December:  Support at 5,300 to 5,500. Nothing very interesting.

24th November: Target of 6,400 is cancelled due to a fall below support and hesitation

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double bottom points to 6,400 - cancelled

17th November: No significant change from last week. Support at the current level is important.

3rd November: Target of 6,400 is getting closer. Volume is not picking up as I would have hoped. Otherwise, nothing clear.

27th October: A chance of seeing 6,400 in the next week or so. But volume is not sufficiently impressive for a double bottom. Resistance at around 7,000 therefore presents a big danger, if the market gets that far on low volume.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double bottom points to 6,400

20th October: .Medium term target of 6,400 is likely to be reached soon. But the long term bottom, with neckline at 6,400 needs more volume.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double bottom points to 6,400

13th October: Chances of 6,400 have improved with last week's rally. But volume is still too weak to inspire hope for the longer term target of 9,700.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double bottom points to 6,400

6th October: Still a good chance of 6,400 in the next few months.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double bottom points to 6,400

Long term:  none

Currency: double bottom points to 33.7 - done

22nd September: Volume has been falling off over the last few weeks. But target of 6,400 is still probable provided that the index remains above channel support at 5,700.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double bottom points to 6,400

Long term:  none

Currency: double bottom points to 33.7

15th September: The index is testing rising channel support. We need a healthy jump in the index this week in order to confirm our target of 6,400. If the support fails, target will be questionable again.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double bottom points to 6,400

Long term:  none

Currency: double bottom points to 33.7

8th September: Moving steadily to target. Volume is still good.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double bottom points to 6,400

Long term:  none

Currency: double bottom points to 33.7

1st September: 6,400 looks good. Volume is excellent and the pullback to and turn on the neckline confirm the double bottom.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double bottom points to 6,400

18th August: The index has turned on the neckline of our medium term bottom and rallied on good volume. This confirms the target of 6,400.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double bottom points to 6,400

11th August: 5,200 is an important support. Below this level, we can cancel the target of 6,400.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double bottom points to 6,400

4th August: 6,400 is still the most likely outcome, provided the index stays above 5,200.

Current Prediction

Short term: double bottom (pink) points to 6,400

28th July: 6,400 still looks good, provided the index stays above 5,200.

Current Prediction

Short term: double bottom (pink) points to 6,400

28th July: 6,400 still looks good, provided the index stays above 5,200.

Current Prediction

Short term: double bottom (pink) points to 6,400

21st July: A close above 5,400 would improve the chances of 6,400.

Current Prediction

Short term: double bottom (pink) points to 6,400

5th July: A bottom points to 6,400. Volume is persuasive on breakout. Confirmation by way of pullback to the neckline and turn would be nice.

Current Prediction

Short term: 1.) double bottom (in green)  points to 5,250 - questionable due to strong resistance at 5,100
                    2.) double bottom (pink) points to 6,400 - not yet confirmed

30th June: The index is making a double bottom. But volume is not sufficient to make the pattern reliable.

Current Prediction

Short term: double bottom (in green)  points to 5,250 - questionable due to strong resistance at 5,100

16th June: Volume is still on the low side. No cause to hope for a swift rally to 5,300.

Current Prediction

Short term: double bottom points to 5,300-not yet confirmed

9th June: Reasonable volume in the market last week and a nice medium term pattern in the first chart. But volume is still not enough to inspire confidence in a long term reversal.

Current Prediction

Short term: double bottom points to 5,200-not yet confirmed

Medium term: none

Long term:  none

Currency: none

2nd June: Last week was moderately encouraging. However, in order to see a sustained rally, we need much more volume.

26th May: In the short term there is nothing exciting to report. The market is still sitting on support. But there is no build up of volume to inspire hope that the index is bottoming. The long term weekly chart gives cause to hope that the index is likely to bottom at the current level.

12th May: The best thing that can be said for the index is that it is on good support. No sign of bottoming yet.

28th April: A fall below 4,180 would set a target of around 3,500. But long term supports at arond 3,800 to 4,000 make this target less likely.

18th April: Nothing much to go on. Next support is at around 4,100. Let's see if that holds.

29th March: The medium term chart looks dangerous. But there is good support at 4,000 on the long term chart. I would want to see 4,000 fail before considering lower targets.

24th March: The market is testing a resistance at around 4,620. If the index fails at this level, there is a danger of a bigger top.

17th March: The first chart shows a confusing picture in the short term. The second chart shows long term support at around 4,200.

10th March: The index is testing support at the current level. If it fails next support would be at around 4,000.

3rd March: A possible top in the medium term. But it could take more time to form. Keep an eye on long term supports.

24th  February: Very little to go on, other than the supports in the second chart.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: reverse head and shoulders points to 5,870 - cancelled

10th  February: The pattern pointing to 5,870 is still valid. But it will be cancelled if the index falls below support at around 4,600.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: reverse head and shoulders points to 5,870 - still valid but questionable

Long term: none

Currency: none

3rd February: The medium term target of 5,870 looks strong. But there is a resistance at 5,150 to be overcome.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: reverse head and shoulders points to 5,870

Long term:  none

Currency: none

27th January: Increasing volume gives the index a good chance of reaching target.

13th January: The index has broken out of a reversal pattern pointing to 5,870. Confirmation would be a breakout from resistance at 5,150 on strong volume.

Current Prediction

Short term: reverse head and shoulders points to 5,500 - cancelled

Medium term: reverse head and shoulders points to 5,870

Long term:  none

Currency: none 


2002

23rd December: Our bullish scenario in the first chart is now getting a bit stale. A longer period of bottoming would not surprise.

Current Prediction

Short term: reverse head and shoulders points to 5,500, but it is now doubtful

Medium term: none

Long term:  none

Currency: none

16th December: A double top is likely to cancel the the bullish pattern pointing to 5,500. A close at 4,500 would confirm the double top. We would then likely see the index fall to the previous low at around 4,000.

Current Prediction

Short term: reverse head and shoulders points to 5,500, but it is now doubtful

9th December: The index could still be bottoming, provided it stays above support at around 4,530.

Current Prediction

Short term: reverse head and shoulders points to 5,500, but it is now doubtful

2nd December: A short to medium term pattern has a chance of developing. Volume is still quite good. If the pattern develops, there is a good chance that the index has reversed. Still have to wait.

Current Prediction

Short term: reverse head and shoulders points to 5,500.

18th November: Volume remained strong last week, giving further evidence for a bottom at the current level.

Current Prediction

Short term: reverse head and shoulders points to 5,500.

11th November: The index has a good chance of reaching 5,500, provided it doesn't fall under 4,650.

Current Prediction

Short term: reverse head and shoulders points to 5,500.

2nd November: Chance for a short term bottom. But we need a bit more volatility and a bit more volume.

28th October: The index has touched possible long term supports on the weekly and daily charts. In addition, a short term bottom could be forming. But more evidence would be required in order to be persuaded that a bottom has been reached.

19th October: Despite last week's rally, no sign of a bottom yet, and still the sobering possibility of 3,100.

12th October: Supports at around 3,700 and 3,100.

7th October: Index is progressing to support at around 3,800. If that fail, the next good support would be at around 3,100.

30th September: No joy in this market. Next good support is at around 3,800.

16th September: No support at the current level. The index is more likely to keep falling than not. Support is at around 3,700 on the daily chart, and a bit higher on the weekly chart.

9th September: No significant change. The index has still a way to fall before finding good support. But we have no prediction. A bottom could therefore form anywhere, without warning. My guess would be 3,800. But it's just a guess.

19th August: Medium term target is as good as reached. But no sign of a bottom.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: head and shoulders top points to 4,350 - reached near enough

12th August: The index is now likely to fall back to 4,350, at least, probably lower, as long term support at around 4,000 would be tested.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: head and shoulders top points to 4,350

22nd July: Support at 5,000 looks strong. Below that, a fall to 4,400 is likely, which has strong support on the weekly chart.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: head and shoulders top points to 4,350 - is back but still not yet confirmed.

Long term:  none

Currency: none

15th July: The index rebounded strongly, cancelling our target of 4,350, and giving hope for the long term scenario. Currency is also strengthening.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: head and shoulders top points to 4,350 - cancelled

Long term:  none

Currency: none

8th July: The index is on a possible medium term channel support and is making a nice long term reversal pattern. But there's nothing conclusive yet.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: head and shoulders top points to 4,350 - not yet confirmed

Long term:  none

Currency: none

1st July: With the cancellation of the double bottom, pointing to 7,900, the best hope is for a long term reverse head and shoulders bottom. Provided the index does not fall below 4,900, the chances are good for the bottom. However, if the index falls below 4,900, we should be prepared for at least another 10% fall to somewhere below 4,400.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: head and shoulders top points to 4,350 - not yet confirmed

Long term:  double bottom points to 7,900 - cancelled

Currency: none

24th June: The index is lingering around support at 5,300. Currency is rallying and has a little further to go before reaching resistance.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom points to 7,900

Currency: medium term double bottom points to 33.60

10th June: A case of no news is good news for this market. Good support at 5,300. No indication of anything positive in the short term.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom points to 7,900

Currency: medium term double bottom points to 33.60

3rd June: The index is still bullish, provided it remains above 5,300.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom points to 7,900

Currency: 1. long term head and shoulders top pointing to 36.30 - cancelled.
                  2. medium term double bottom points to 33.60

27th May: We are now looking for supports to hold: a fall below 5,300 would cancel our bullish target of 7,900. A fall below 5,000 would likely see 4,400. Currency has made a bullish bottom.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom points to 7,900

Currency: 1. long term head and shoulders top pointing to 36.30 - cancelled.
                  2. medium term double bottom points to 33.60

6th May: Short term weakness now favours the long term scenario in the third chart. This scenario could see the index fall to the level of 5,500, or slightly lower, with a recovery, and breakout from 6,600 around August.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom points to 7,900

Currency: 1. long term head and shoulders top pointing to 36.30 not yet cancelled.
                 2. short term double bottom points to 34.65

28th April: No great change for the index. But currency has clearly bottomed in the short term and has a chance of bottoming in the long term..

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom points to 7,900

Currency: 1. long term head and shoulders top pointing to 36.30 not yet cancelled.
                 2. short term double bottom points to 34.65

21st April: The index broke a key resistance last week. Chances of the index reaching target of 7,900 have thus improved. Currency could also be bottoming.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom points to 7,900

Currency: head and shoulders top pointing to 36.30.

8th April: The index is testing resistance at 6,400. If that level breaks, we will have a good chance of seeing 7,900. If it fails, the downside is the 5,000 level with recovery, hopefully in the middle of the year.

31st March: The index has turned on the neckline of our double top, making a valid prediction of 7,900. There's still a strong resistance at the current level. But no sign, yet, of topping.

9th March: Still waiting for resistance to break. The weekly chart might give a clue.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom points to 7,900

Currency: head and shoulders top pointing to 36.30.

2nd March: No change to the ambiguous outlook: on one hand, we could see a rally to 7,900. On the other hand, the index could drop back for a month or two, even as low as 4,700, before rebounding. A close above 6,100 would suggest an impending rally, provided volume were good.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom points to 7,900

Currency: head and shoulders top pointing to 36.30.

25th February: The index could either keep on rallying, or cool off for a few weeks, before, with luck, another impressive rally. The latter scenario, requiring a few weeks of bearishness, would conduce to the regional trend.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:  double bottom points to 7,900

Currency: head and shoulders top pointing to 36.30.

11th February: Resistance at 6,000 is still the major obstacle. If the index fails to breakout from this resistance, we could see a few months of correction. High volume justifies the hope that the market is nonetheless in a long term bull market. But we should see 6,000 break on high volume before getting too hopeful.

2nd February: The short term could see a correction. But the medium term still looks good.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: reverse head and shoulders points to 6,000 - done 28th January.

Long term:  Double bottom points to 7,900

Currency: head and shoulders top pointing to 36.30.

28th January: Last week's rally gave further evidence of a long term bottom, with a target of around 7,900. But there are still one or two little dangers.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: reverse head and shoulders points to 6,000.

Long term:  Double bottom points to 7,900

Currency: head and shoulders top pointing to 36.30.

6th January: The long term prospects for a reversal are good. But the index could spend a few months in consolidation, either now, or after hitting resistance at around 6,300.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: reverse head and shoulders points to 6,000.

Long term: A long term top points to 2,970. Now questionable.

Currency: head and shoulders top pointing to 36.30.

2001

24th  December: Excellent recent volume suggests that the index has bottomed. But we still don't have a persuasive pattern to confirm the bottom in the medium term. Currency is approaching support.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: reverse head and shoulders points to 6,000.

Long term: A long term top points to 2,970. Now questionable.

Currency: head and shoulders top pointing to 36.30.

10th December: Good recent volume gives the index a good chance of having reversed. The symmetry of the reversal pattern is not sufficient to be confident of a long term reversal. But chances are good. A rally to 6,000 may soon be expected, after which, a correction is likely.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: reverse head and shoulders points to 6,000

Long term: A long term top points to 2,970. Now questionable.

Currency: head and shoulders top pointing to 36.30.

24th  November: The index is still looking good, with good volume giving a good chance for a good reversal. That would be good, indeed!

19th November: The big double top pointing to 2,900 is still valid. But a possible medium term bottom, with good volume, could throw doubt on the target. It's too early to tell. Best time would be around the end of January.

12th October: The index is touching a medium term resistance. If it breaks the resistance, we can cancel a medium term target of 2,900. There is still a long term pattern with the same target. But cancellation of the medium term target would break a falling wedge, which would throw doubt on the long term target.

22nd October: A bit of sideways dithering last week gives nothing exciting to report.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: A long term top points to 2,970.

Currency: head and shoulders top pointing to 36.30.

15th October: No change from last week: 2,900 is still a high probability. But a rally to about 4,200 would cancel the target.

1st October: The index has now broken out of a medium term pattern pointing to 2,900. This target confirms a long term target of the same 2,900, making the target highly likely.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: A long term top points to 2,970.

Currency: head and shoulders top pointing to 36.30.

17th September: The daily medium term chart fell to a good support last week. If the index closes lower this week, the daily chart will confirm the long term prediction of 2,900.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: A long term top points to 2,970.

Currency: head and shoulders top pointing to 36.30.

10th September: A fall to 3,850 is likely if the index closes at 4,200. Good support will then occur to around 3,600. A fall below 3,600 will likely see the index fall to 2,900.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: A long term top points to 2,970.

Currency: head and shoulders top pointing to 36.30.

27th August: A medium term top pattern could be forming. It's neckline would be around 3,600. If the index fall below this level, a target of 2,900 would be valid, confirming the long term top target of 2,900. If the index fell to this level, it could spend the next few years in a range between 3,000 and 5,000, according to a double bottom scenario.

Current Prediction

Short term: reverse head and shoulders pointing to 5,100. Questionable breakout volume. Cancelled.

Medium term: none

Long term: A long term top points to 2,970.

Currency: head and shoulders top pointing to 36.30.

20th August: A short term reversal pattern gives a dubious target of 5,100. But medium term resistance is likely to stop any further gains.

Current Prediction

Short term: reverse head and shoulders pointing to 5,100. Questionable breakout volume.

Medium term: none

Long term: A long term top points to 2,970.

Currency: head and shoulders top pointing to 36.30.

13th August: The index is congesting at a channel. No clear direction can be discerned, except for the long term trend, which is down.

30th July: The long term daily chart has a target of around 2,900 and the lowest support on the weekly chart is at around 3,000.

23rd July: The index is now more likely to test the 3,000 level, after the long term daily support failed.

16th July: Important weekly supports failed last week. Unless last week's failure is quickly repaired, a fall to 3,600, or even 3,000 can be expected. A close below 4,300, on the long term daily chart, will give a high probability of a fall to 3,000.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: triple top pointing to 4,600 - done

Long term: A long term top points to 3,000. We should wait for long term weekly support at 4,800 to break before confirming it. But the pattern is valid and persuasive. Unless the index closes at 6,300 or 6,400 on strong volume, we should presume the bearish target.

Currency: head and shoulders top pointing to 36.30.

9th July: Time to keep an eye on the long term weekly supports. The index is now retesting a support that dates back to 1991. It's a long term support. But it is not a strong one. If it fails, 3,600 becomes a danger.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: triple top pointing to 4,600

Long term: A long term top points to 3,000. We should wait for long term weekly support at 4,800 to break before confirming it. But the pattern is valid and persuasive. Unless the index closes at 6,300 or 6,400 on strong volume, we should presume the bearish target.

Currency: head and shoulders top pointing to 36.30.

23rd June: The index is falling to medium term target, somewhere between 4,600 and 4,700.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: triple top pointing to 4,600

Long term: A long term top points to 3,000. We should wait for long term weekly support at 4,800 to break before confirming it. But the pattern is valid and persuasive. Unless the index closes at 6,300 or 6,400 on strong volume, we should presume the bearish target.

Currency: head and shoulders top pointing to 36.30.

18th June: The medium term triple top pointing to 4,700 is still valid. Weekly support at the current level is holding. A long term double scenario on the weekly chart would require consolidation at the current level for at least a few months, if not six months to a year.

4th June: The index still has a valid target of 4,700. But it is now in the region of weekly support. There is therefore a chance of a bottom at the current level, despite the short term top. (The theory being that long term supports take priority over short term targets.)

Current Prediction

Short term: triple top pointing to 4,700

Medium term: none

Long term: A long term top points to 3,000. We should wait for long term weekly support at 4,800 to break before confirming it. But the pattern is valid and persuasive. Unless the index closes at 6,300 or 6,400 on strong volume, we should presume the bearish target.

Currency: head and shoulders top pointing to 36.30.

28th May: The top pointing to 4,700 is still valid, despite the impressive rally last week.

Current Prediction

Short term: triple top pointing to 4,700

Medium term: none

Long term: A long term top points to 3,000. We should wait for long term weekly support at 4,800 to break before confirming it. But the pattern is valid and persuasive. Unless the index closes at 6,300 or 6,400 on strong volume, we should presume the bearish target.

Currency: head and shoulders top pointing to 36.30.

21st May: No great change from last week. The index trickled down the neckline of the short term triple top. 4,700 is the likely target. Keep an eye on the weekly chart. With luck, we will see a close next Friday, not less than 4,800.

Current Prediction

Short term: triple top pointing to 4,700

Medium term: none

Long term: A long term top points to 3,000. We should wait for long term support at 4,800 to break before confirming it. But the pattern is valid and persuasive. Unless the index closes at 6,300 or 6,400 on strong volume, we should presume the bearish target.

Currency: none

14th May: The index rallied to the neckline of the triple top that points to 4,700. If the index closes above the top we can cancel it. Otherwise, expect 4,700.

7th May: A medium term top points back to 4,700. Thus we are likely to see a retesting of the previous low.

Current Prediction

Short term: triple top pointing to 4,700

Medium term: none

Long term: A long term top points to 3,000. We should wait for long term support at 4,800 to break before confirming it. But the pattern is valid and persuasive. Unless the index closes at 6,300 or 6,400 on strong volume, we should presume the bearish target.

Currency: none

23rd April: The index is a long way from anywhere of technical significance. It needs to rally to 6,500 to cancel the long term bearish target of 3,000. But it needs to fall below the weekly support of 4,800, to confirm it.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: A long term top points to 3,000. We should wait for long term support at 4,800 to break before confirming it. But the pattern is valid and persuasive. Unless the index closes at 6,300 or 6,400 on strong volume, we should presume the bearish target.

Currency: none

9th April: Not much change. The index is likely to test recent lows. But we should wait for the index to fall below 5,200 before confirming that scenario.

2nd April: The long term bearish target of 3,000 is still a threat.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double bottom points to 6,900. Looking a bit weak. Cancelled if falls below 5,400.

Long term: A long term top points to 3,000. We should wait for long term support at 4,800 to break before confirming it. But it is valid and persuasive. Unless the index closes at 6,300 or 6,400 on strong volume, we should presume the bearish target.

Currency: none

19th March: Not much change from last week. Unless we see a rally to 6,300, chances are the index is going down to around 3,000. As the world stands now, I favour the 3,000 scenario in the long term daily chart.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double bottom points to 6,900. Looking a bit weak. Cancelled if falls below 5,400.

Long term: A long term top points to 3,000. We should wait for long term support at 4,800 to break before confirming it. But it is valid and persuasive. Unless the index closes at 6,300 or 6,400 on strong volume, we should presume the bearish target.

Currency: none

12th March:  A long term double top points to 3,000 on a log scale. It is doubtful due to its length of formation - about five years. We should therefore await the fate of the long term support at around 4,800 before getting serious about 3,000. On the other hand, a breakout above 6,300 would give a nice reversal of the current long term bearish trend.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double bottom points to 6,900. But the neckline is not clearly defined. It would take a rebound to define the neckline and determine a new target.

Long term: A long term top points to 3,000. We should wait for long term support at 4,800 to break before confirming it. But it is valid and persuasive. Unless the index closes at 6,300 or 6,400 on strong volume, we should presume the bearish target.

Currency: none

5th March: The index has made a short term double top. The medium term double bottom reversal is now questionable.  A return to the previous low of 4,500, or even lower is now conceivable. See the long term double bottom scenario on the daily chart.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double bottom points to 6,900. But the neckline is not clearly defined. It would take a rebound to define the neckline and determine a new target.

26th February: Support at around 5,450 is important this week. If it breaks, a little double top could see the index retest its previous low.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double bottom points to 7,000. But cancelled if the index falls below neckline support at around 5,450.

19th February:  The index looks good in the short term. We have a valid short term pattern confirmed by a pullback and turn and good volume. Good chance of 7,000.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double bottom points to 7,000.

12th February: The index is still trapped under a medium term resistance. Until it breaks, say at  6,300, there is a chance that the target of 7,000 could fail. Volume is still good. So there is a reason to hope that the resistance will break.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double bottom points to 7,000.

5th February: Volume still supports the target of 7,000. But there is strong resistance on the daily and weekly charts.

Current Prediction

Short term: double bottom with good volume points to 6,000 - done

Medium term: double bottom points to 7,000.

Long term: none

Currency: a short term bottom could reverse the currency. But there is still the danger of a long term top.

8th January: The index could reverse at the current level. A short term double bottom gives a chance at 6,100 if the index breaks 5,300 on strong volume. Otherwise, the index is likely to fall to 4,200, at least.

2000

18th December: A double top threatens to take the index to 4,700. At that level, a big double top could see the index fall to 2,500. But it's too early to make predictions yet. The weekly chart inspires bearish thoughts.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double top points to 2,500 - neither confirmed nor cancelled: i.e, in limbo.

11th December:  The weekly chart has broken a long term support. The margin is not sufficient to confirm the double top pointing to 2,850. But the break in support is ominous and increases the danger of a fall to that target.

4th December: 4,800 is now the neckline for our long term double top. Below that level, we can expect 2,500.

27th November: The index broke out of a long term double top and recovered. The long term target is neither confirmed nor cancelled.

Current Prediction

Short term: A double top points to 4,600. Now questionable.

Medium term: none

Long term: double top points to 2,500 - neither confirmed nor cancelled: i.e, in limbo.

Currency: none

20th November: The index fell below the neckline of a top with log target of 2,500. Before confirming the target we should see whether there will be a rebound above the neckline. If the index fails to repair the neckline, we shall have a valid target of 2,500.

Current Prediction

Short term: A double top points to 4,600.

Medium term: none

Long term: double top points to 2,500. Needs confirmation by way of pullback.

Currency: none

13th November: Some good volume last week improves the chances that index has found a bottom.

Current Prediction

Short term: A rally to 7,000 can be expected if the index closes at 6,200 on strong volume.

6th November: The index has turned after reaching a possible long term support. There is a little reversal pattern forming on the short term chart. But volume is not yet sufficient to confirm a reversal.

30th October: Chance of a short term bottom at the current level. But the index has not yet reached weekly support at 5,100. There is a good chance that the index touches this support before making a bottom. But we shall have to see.

23rd October: The index is approaching a good long term support on the weekly chart at around 5,100. This could be a good place for the index to bottom. If it fails this support, the next good support would be at around 3,500.

16th October: The index failed to reverse at a long term support, ending a decade long bull trend. Next weekly support is at 5,400.

9th October: The index has fallen to target and rebounded. But there is not reversal pattern yet. We shall have to await either a reversal pattern or a failure of the long term support.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double top points to 6,000 - done

Currency: a head and shoulders top points to 31.5

2nd October: The index is approaching double top target at 6,000. There is a good weekly support at this level. With luck, the index will bottom at this level. Otherwise, we can hope for a bottom at 5,600.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double top points to 6,000

Currency: a head and shoulders top points to 31.5

18th September: The index has confirmed the bearish target of 6,600. The next support below that target is 6,500. If that level fails, we could see 6,200.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: long term double top points to a minimum low of 6,600, provided support at 7,200 is passed.

Currency: a head and shoulders top points to 31.5

11th September: A fall below 7,200 will give a high probability of a fall to at least 6,600, and possibly 6,200. But the current long term support is strong. There is a chance of a bottoming at the current level, but no sight of it yet.

4th September: Ambiguity resolved, the index has broken out of a double top pointing to somewhere between 6,200 and 6,600. The long term weekly support at 6,500 suggests a possible bottom at this level. But there is also the chance of a surprise rebound at 7,200.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: long term double top points to a minimum low of 6,600, provided support at 7,200 is passed.

Currency: long term double bottom points to 29.5

14th August: No great change. The index is still testing necklines and supports

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: reverse head and shoulders points to 11,600, cancelled if the index falls below 7,700.

Currency: long term double bottom points to 29.5

7th August: The weekly target of 11,600 has been cancelled. It now remains to be seen whether the daily pattern will be cancelled.

31st July: The market is still in the shadow of a double top. But the index is still right on the neckline of the reverse head and shoulders pointing to 11,600. Provided that the neckline holds, the bullish target is valid. But a fall below 7,800 will break the leg support of a double top, giving a valid target of 6,660.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: reverse head and shoulders points to 11,600, cancelled if the index falls below 7,700.

Currency: long term double bottom points to 29.5

24th July: A bit of a disappointment last week as the index failed its wedge breakout. We are now left in the same position as that of two or three weeks ago. Nonetheless, the long term pattern is still valid, and the prediction of 11,600 has a good chance, provided the index can keep above 7,800.

17th July: The index broke out of a falling wedge today, confirming the upward trend of the index. A strong rally could soon occur, provided no failures in the next few days.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double top points to 6,300. A fall to 8,000 will confirm the target.

Long term: reverse head and shoulders points to 11,600, cancelled if the index falls below 8,000.

Currency: long term double bottom points to 29.5

10th July: The index is in danger of topping. But the pattern pointing to 11,600 is still valid. The bull prevails unless the index fall below 7,900.

3rd July: The index broke out of a medium term double top, only to repair the damage the day later. A fall of one or two hundred points will cancel the bullish target and bring in a target of 6,300.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: double top points to 6,300. A fall to 8,000 will confirm the target.

Long term: reverse head and shoulders points to 11,600, cancelled if the index falls below 8,000.

Currency: long term double bottom points to 29.5

26th June: The index is still bullish. But a fall below 8,200 could change that.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: reverse head and shoulders points to 11,600.

Currency: long term double bottom points to 29.5

5th June: The bullish target of 11,600 is still valid.

15th May: The index is still looking bullish. But a fall to 8,000 would end the show and give a target of 6,400.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: reverse head and shoulders points to 11,600.

Currency: long term double bottom points to 29.5

8th May: The index toyed with long term support, breaking and then repairing it. The weekly chart still shows a clear bullish picture. But the index is close to the neckline of a double top. A fall below 8,200 will give a bearish target.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: reverse head and shoulders points to 11,600.

Currency: long term double bottom points to 29.5

1st May: The long term channel support (yellow in the charts below) again turned the index last week. Provided this support holds, target of 11,600 is still valid.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: reverse head and shoulders points to 11,600.

Currency: long term double bottom points to 29.5

24th April: The target of 11,600 is still valid, albeit subject to greater doubt. A possible bullish triangle could remove some of that doubt. But the index needs to break 10,400 before we can derive confidence from that pattern.

17th April: The index turned again at the long term resistance around 10,300. Chances are still good that the index will overcome this barrier. Strong volume assists the cause

25th March: An impressive rally last week on good volume reaffirms our bullish target, albeit slightly lowered to 11,600.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: reverse head and shoulders points to 11,600.

Currency: long term double bottom points to 29.5

20th March: The index still has a good chance of rallying to 11,800 over the coming months, provided it stays above 8,200 this Friday.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: reverse head and shoulders points to 11,800.

Currency: long term double bottom points to 29.5

13th March: The index fell today to leg support at 8,800. If this support fails, there will be good support at 8,200.

6th March: The index is supported in its long term channel. But the short term target of 9,200 is outstanding.

Current Prediction

Short term: double top points to 9,200.

Medium term: none

Long term: reverse head and shoulders points to 11,800.

Currency: long term double bottom points to 29.5

28th February:  The index could now correct to around 8,500. The bull is taking a holiday, but it is still in charge.

Current Prediction

Short term: double top points to 9,300. A larger pattern could point below 8,800.

Medium term: none

Long term: reverse head and shoulders points to 11,800. But volume on the right side of the pattern does not clearly out-balance that of the left side. Unless volume reaches 350 billion NT$ per day, or more, we should not expect a swift rally to target.

Currency: long term double bottom points to 29.5

21st February: Target of 11,800 is still valid. The only question is where there will be a period of consolidation. This could happen at the current level, or at 10,700.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: reverse head and shoulders points to 11,800. But volume on the right side of the pattern does not clearly out-balance that of the left side. Unless volume reaches 350 billion NT$ per day, or more, we should not expect a swift rally to target.

Currency: long term double bottom points to 29.5

14th February: The index passed our weekly resistance at 10,000. Resistances now are at 10,300, 10,700 and 11,000.

7th February:  The index is proceeding to target. Resistance at 10,000 is approaching. Could be a correction soon.

31st January: The index is moving swiftly to target, as expected, assisted by high volume. Resistances at 10,000 and 10,700.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: reverse head and shoulders points to 11,800. But volume on the right side of the pattern does not clearly out-balance that of the left side. Unless volume reaches 350 billion NT$ per day, or more, we should not expect a swift rally to target.

Currency: long term double bottom points to 29.5

10th January: The index broke out of a reverse head and shoulders pattern pointing to 11,800. Volume is not great. We could therefore see some vacillation.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: reverse head and shoulders points to 11,800. But volume on the right side of the pattern does not clearly out-balance that of the left side. Unless volume reaches 350 billion NT$ per day, or more, we should not expect a swift rally to target.

Currency: long term double bottom points to 29.5
 

History from 1996 to 1999

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