1999
20th December: Good volume over the last two weeks. But more is needed to break the resistance and neckline at 8,400.29th November: Volume is still good. Therefore, despite the heavy fall last Friday, the index still has a good chance of rallying, provided the long term support holds at around 7,500.
Current Prediction
Short term: wedge points to 8,400. Good breakout volume will assist the index reaching the target. Should be a good chance despite the pullback.
22nd November: The index broke out of a wedge last week on good volume suggesting 8,400. A double bottom could soon confirm this target. However, the index must break 8,500 before we can confirm a long term reversal.
Current Prediction
Short term: wedge points to 8,400. Good breakout volume will assist the index reaching the target.
15th November: The index turned on long term support. It could be making a triangle, which would explain the fall-off in volume. Still a bullish chance if the index breaks 8,100 on high volume.
8th November: The index is making a few bearish short term patterns and is now testing a long term support.
11th October: The index is well supported at the current level. With luck, a rebound will soon occu
4th October: The index is nearing a long term support at 7,300. A short term top points to that target.
Current Prediction
Short term: head and shoulders top points to around 7,300.
20th September: The index is looking a little weak as a topping pattern has broken, suggesting a fall to around 7,300. With luck, the index will hold at that level.
13th September: Not much change last week. 8,500 - 8,700 is the critical resistance. If this breaks on good volume, the bull market will be reconfirmed.
23rd August: The short term charts could soon give a sign that the index will proceed rapidly to 9,300. The long term hope is for a pattern pointing to 11,900. However, there is long term resistance until 8,600 which might hold the index back for a while.
16th August: A good reversal pattern rarely fails. It was therefore with surprise that the target of 10,000 of one or two months ago was cancelled. But the failure of the top pointing to 5,800 was no surprise. As often is the case in a bull market, the failure of a good pattern gives rise to a larger pattern. We should now expect to see a new pattern forming, longer in duration, giving a target of 11,900
Current Prediction
Short term: none
Medium term: head and shoulders top points to 5,800 - cancelled
9th August: The index has confirmed a top pointing to 5,800. Possible intervention at 6,400.
2nd August: The bull market is fading fast. This is a classic example of an accident. A great reversal pattern was cancelled as a result of some external event. With luck, the market will make a longer, more stable reversal pattern, without shedding too much ground. There's a scenario below. But there's also a top pattern that could send the market back to 5,700.
19th July: The index fell below our necklines, cancelling all targets. If the index rebounds above 8,000 and shows evidence of holding, we will re-instate the targets.
The steep fall is a result of political considerations, which, once resolved, could send the index back towards our targets.
Current Prediction
Short term: none
Medium term: reverse head and shoulders points to 10,000 - cancelled
Long term: weekly chart points to 10,000 - cancelled
Currency: none
12th July: The index is proceeding to target of 10,000, or thereabouts.
Current Prediction
Short term: none
Medium term: reverse head and shoulders points to 10,000
Long term: weekly chart points to 10,000
28th June: The index is behaving nicely. Volume is good. A pullback to as low as 7,900 would not spoil the chances of the index reaching 9,900. And if the current channel in the long term daily chart prevails, we could see 10,700 as early as October.
Current Prediction
Short term: none
Medium term: reverse head and shoulders points to 9,800
Long term: weekly chart points to 10,000
Currency: strengthening
21st June: The index is heading towards target of 9,900. Good volume supports the target. Weekly resistance is at around 8,700.
Current Prediction
Short term: none
Medium term: reverse head and shoulders points to 9,800
Long term: weekly chart points to 10,000
Currency: strengthening
14th June: The bull is back. Target of 9,800 is confirmed. In other words, the index is likely to rise 30% in a few months.
Current Prediction
Short term: triangle points to 8,200 this week or next week
Medium term: reverse head and shoulders points to 9,800
Long term: weekly chart points to 10,000
Currency: strengthening
7th June: The index is struggling on long term resistance. If it breaks upside, we will have a chance at seeing 10,100 in the coming months. If it fails, the downside is around 5,600. A short term pattern might soon hold the key.
31st May: The index could be making a short term top with target at 6,800. This would conduce to our long term reversal scenario. But note that nothing is yet confirmed. Strictly speaking, the index is still in a long term down trend, as the weekly chart indicates.
24th May: The index is consolidating nicely on increasing volume, giving hope for a long term reversal scenario. A breakout above the 7,800 level, on strong volume, would suggest that a bottom has been made and a target of 9,800 could be expected.
10th May: The index failed to break the short term support. If the support fails we could see the right shoulder of a long term reversal pattern that could eventually confirm the end of the bear market.
Current Prediction
Medium term: none
Long term: none
Currency: strengthening
3rd May: The double bottom pointing to 8,800 is cancelled. But the index could be making a larger reversal pattern. If it breaks, perhaps in July, we could see a higher target of 10,000.
26th April: Not much change. The patient is in stable condition. Volume is continuing to build, which helps our reversal scenario.
19th April: The index reached our short term target of 7,500. It has made a double bottom pointing to 8,800. But volume is not persuasive. Therefore we could see consolidation at the current level and the formation of a larger pattern with breakout in the second half of the year.
Current Prediction
Medium term: a double bottom points to 8,800. But it is not a strong pattern. Resistance at the current level could intervene.
Long term: none
Currency: strengthening
14th April: The index rose to our target of 7,500. It has now reached resistance. If my long term reversal scenario is correct, the index could consolidate here for a month or two before advancing.
26th March: The market has turned on a long term resistance. We must now wait and see whether the reversal scenario, in the medium term chart, will eventuate. It could take until June or July to happen. By that time, it would be a long term reversal pattern.
Current Prediction
Medium term: a reverse head and shoulders points to 7,500.
Long term: none
Currency: 33.7
22nd March: The rebound last week on good volume gives rise to the possibility that the index hit its bottom on Feb. 5th. But we will have to wait a few months to be sure that a long term reversal is taking place.
Current Prediction
Medium term: a reverse head and shoulders points to 7,500.
Long term: double top with approximate neckline pointing to 4,900-5,000 in doubt. Head and shoulders top with log target of 3,780 cancelled.
Currency: 33.7
15th March: The index has made a short term reversal pattern. But volume is not impressive. It could just as easily fail and the long term predictions take effect.
Current Prediction
Medium term: a reverse head and shoulders points to 7,300. But volume needs to build for the index to reach target.
Long term: double top with approximate neckline pointing to 4,900-5,000. Head and shoulders top with log target of 3,780.
Currency: 33.7
8th March: The index could be making a reversal pattern in the short term. But the index has hit resistance in the long term daily chart and average volume has hit resistance. Thus the greater probability is that the market will resume its downward trend.
Current Prediction
Medium term: none
Long term: double top with approximate neckline pointing to 4,900-5,000. Head and shoulders top with log target of 3,780.
Currency: 33.7
15th February: A new long term pattern gives a target of 3,780 on a log scale.
Current Prediction
Medium term: head and shoulders top points to 5,400
Long term: double top with approximate neckline pointing to 4,900-5,000. Head and shoulders top with log target of 3,780.
Currency: 30
8th February: The market fell close to our first target last week. Given the approximate position of the neckline, I think we should be satisfied with the target being reached. We have found a long term support at the current level. If this fails to hold, we can expect the market to fall to our next target of 4,900.
Current Prediction
Medium term: head and shoulders top points to 5,400
Long term: double top with approximate neckline pointing to 4,900-5,000. If this fails, we could expect the market to fall to around 4,000, depending on supports.
Currency: 30
1st February: A new long term support might intervene to prevent the index falling to target. Let's see if it holds this week.
Current Prediction
Medium term: head and shoulders top points to 5,400
Long term: double top pointing to 3,900 , possibly in March or April next year - reinstated. But support at 6,500 could still save the day.
Currency: 30
25th January: The weekly chart shows confirmation that the most recent long term support has failed. The next long term support is at around 6,000.
Current Prediction
Medium term: head and shoulders top points to 5,400
Long term: double top pointing to 3,900 , possibly in March or April next year - reinstated. But support at 6,500 could still save the day.
Currency: 30
18th January: The index failed a second attempt to overcome the neckline of the medium head and shoulders top. Thus the chances of a fall to 5,400 increase.
Current Prediction
Medium term: head and shoulders top points to 5,400
Long term: double top pointing to 3,900 , possibly in March or April next year - reinstated. But support at 6,500 could still save the day.
Currency: 30
11th January: The last support for the Taiwan market failed recently. A short term target points to 5,400. The long term target then suggests 3,900.
Current Prediction
Medium term: head and shoulders top points to 5,400
Long term: double top pointing to 3,900 , possibly in March or April next year - reinstated. But support at 6,500 could still save the day.
Currency: 30
21st December: The market is facing a crucial test. The long term daily chart points to 3,900. But the long term weekly chart shows support at 6,500. This is the next test level. If the index fails at 6,500, we may expect 3,900.
1998Current Prediction
Short term: none.
Medium term: none
Long term: double top pointing to 3,900 , possibly in March or April next year - reinstated. But support at 6,500 could still save the day.
Currency: 30
7th December: The index appears to be holding above the neckline of our short term triangle. Looks good. The long term trend appears to be a turn on support. Good chance that the long term bearish pattern will be cancelled.
Current Prediction
Short term: none.
Medium term: none
Long term: double top pointing to 3,900 , possibly in March or April next year - cancelled.
Currency: 30
18th November: A short term ascending triangle is brewing. If the index breaks 7,200 on strong volume, the market could rise to 8,100 and cancel our long term bearish target of 3,900.
Current Prediction
Short term: none.
Medium term: none
Long term: double top pointing to 3,900 , possibly in March or April next year.
Currency: 30
4th November: The index has retraced above the neckline of the weekly chart double top, giving cause to doubt the pattern. But the daily charts still point down.
Current Prediction
Short term: none.
Medium term: none
Long term: double top pointing to 3,900 , possibly in March or April next year.
Currency: 30
23rd October: The neckline of the long term double top is still unbroken.
Current Prediction
Short term: none.
Medium term: none
Long term: double top pointing to 3,900 , possibly in March or April next year.
Currency: none
12th October: The island reversal of last week did not take effect, suggesting that the market is stronger than expected. There is a short term pattern forming that could take the index higher. But the same pattern could also be a mere second pullback to the long term double top.
28th September: The index has now completed a pullback to our large bearish patterns. A steep plunge could happen any time now. But there's always the chance of a surprise. So I'll leave the bull icon in place for the time being.
21st September: The index penetrated the neckline of our head and shoulders top. But the recent rally is only a pullback to the neckline of our large double top. The index is now likely to turn and fall.
14th September: The index made a brief pullback to the neckline of our head and shoulders top and triangle. I do not expect it to get any higher in the medium term. In other words, we are likely to see the index drop rapidly over the next few months, reaching 5,000 by the end of the year.
Current Prediction
Short term: none.
Medium term: head and shoulders pointing to 4,800, probably by mid-December.
Long term: triangle or double top pointing to 3,900 , probably in March or April next year.
Currency: head and shoulders top pointing to 35.90
7th September: First target is 4,800. The index has its last chance at repairing the bearish damage. Check out the long term chart.
Current Prediction
Short term: none.
Medium term: head and shoulders pointing to 4,800
Long term: triangle or double top pointing to 3,900
Currency: head and shoulders top pointing to 35.90
31st August: The index broke through the neckline at 7,000 confirming the long term target of 3,900. The long term support is the only hope that these targets might be cancelled.
Current Prediction
Short term: none.
Medium term: head and shoulders pointing to 5,000
Long term: triangle or double top pointing to 3,900
Currency: head and shoulders top pointing to 35.90.
24th August: The index is getting close to the critical neckline at 7,000. A fall from that level suggests 5,000, then 4000 and the end of the bull market.
27th July: The index broke out of a wedge that portends a fall back to 7,000 in the near term. However, the trend is still up, until the 7,000 neckline breaks.
Current Prediction
Short term: 7,000, by way of a wedge.
14th July: No clear indications. The long term trend is up. But a fall below 7,000 would change that.
6th July: The index is still in a long rising trend and will remain so unless it falls below 7,000. The currency is heading for 36.
29th June: Sideways movement last week. The trend is still up, unless 7,000 breaks
22nd June: If 7,000 breaks we can say bye bye to the bull. Until then, let's wait and see. Check out the long term chart that shows that the market is still a primary bull market, despite the recent correction.
1st June: Target was hit exactly last week. The fall today, June 1 gives a head and shoulders top danger.
25th May: A possible reverse head and shoulders with nice volume might cancel the double top. Otherwise 7,900 is to be expected mid next month or early July.
Current Prediction
Short term: double top pointing to 8,000
Medium term: reverse head and shoulders pointing to 11,500 is on hold.
Long term: none
11th May: The index is probably heading for support at 7,900.
27th April: Conflicting picture here. We have a short term double top pointing to 8,000. But a good support at 8,500 might intervene.
20th April: A valid double top points to 8,000. But support at 8,500 might prevent that target from being reached.
Current Prediction
Short term: double top pointing to 8,000
Medium term: reverse head and shoulders pointing to 11,500
Long term: none
11th April: The index appears to be heading for 9,800 in the short term. This target will set off a valid pattern pointing to 11,500.
Current Prediction
Short term: a head and shoulders or ascending triangle, with target at 9,800. But attainment of the target could set off a medium term reverse head and shoulders pointing to 11,500.
Long term: none
20th March: A triangle in the short term picture will either confirm the bull trend or soon throw it into doubt.
Current Prediction
Short term: a head and shoulders or ascending triangle, with target at 10,000.
Long term: none, the head and shoulders danger is unlikely
16th March: The index is moving to target at 10,000. If it reaches target, the index will break a neckline pointing to 12,000.
Current Prediction
Short term: a head and shoulders or ascending triangle, with target at 10,000.
Long term: none, the head and shoulders danger is unlikely
9th March: The index pulled back to the neckline and turned. Rather bullish phenomenon.
Current Prediction
Short term: a head and shoulders or ascending triangle, with target at 10,000.
Long term: none, the head and shoulders danger is unlikely
23rd February: The index is on course for 10,000 but has hit medium term resistance.
Current Prediction
Short term: a head and shoulders or ascending triangle, with target at 10,000.
Long term: none, but head and shoulders is still possible. Target would then be 4,000
26th January: An encouraging sign last week: the index broke a key resistance in both the short and medium term charts. This, alone, is not enough to change the bearish prediction. We'll have to wait a while.
Current Prediction
Short term: a head and shoulders forming. Neckline at around 7, 400.
Long term: none, but head and shoulders is still possible. Target would then be 4,000.
5th January: Hope is fading. The medium term resistance is proving impenetrable. Volume is falling off.
Current Prediction
Short term: symmetrical triangle pointing to 9,050. Only three turns means that the triangle isn't valid. But it has good breakout volume and therefore a good chance of fulfillment. Resistance at 8,700.
Long term: none, but head and shoulders is still possible. Target would then be 4,000.
199729th December: Still hopeful, but the resistance at 8,700 is weighing heavily. A little wedge points to 8,500 again.
Current Prediction
Short term: symmetrical triangle pointing to 9,050. Only three turns means that the triangle isn't valid. But it has good breakout volume and therefore a good chance of fulfillment. Resistance at 8,700.
Long term: none, but head and shoulders is still possible. Target would then be 4,000.
13th December: This market appears to defy the others in Asia . Now we have a chance at 10,000 again. Is this possible with the rest of Asia about to be swept away by a Japanese tidal wave?
Current Prediction
Short term: symmetrical triangle pointing to 9,050. Only three turns means that the triangle isn't valid. But it has good breakout volume and therefore a good chance of fulfillment. Resistance at 8,700.
Long term: none, but head and shoulders is still possible. Target would then be 4,000.
8th December: A triangle points to 9,000, diminishing our fears of a fall to 4,000. The triangle is not valid and there is strong resistance at 8,700. But there is cause for hope.
Current Prediction
Short term: symmetrical triangle pointing to 9,050. Only three turns means that the triangle isn't valid. But it has good breakout volume and therefore a good chance of fulfillment. Resistance at 8,700.
Long term: none, but head and shoulders is still possible. Target would then be 4,000.
1st December: The index is in danger of making a head and shoulders top with target of 4,000. This danger increased today as the index fell four hundred points and broke out of a symmetrical triangle.
Current Prediction
Short term: symmetrical triangle pointing to 6,500 (but suffers from apex-breakout)
Long term: none, but head and shoulders will break if target of 6,500 is reached. Target will then be 4,000.
27th October: The little rebound last week appears to be happening according to our head and shoulders scenario: low volume on the rebound, resistance at the 8,000 level.
20th October: This is getting a bit close for comfort. Good support at the current level but danger of a head and shoulders top that could see the index fall back to the 5,000 level.
Current Prediction
Short term: support at the current level.
Long term: The weekly chart has broken its support. Looks weak at the moment.
6th October: The index fell out of the ascending channel in the long term chart. Medium term shows good support. But we should like to see some solid rises to return to the comfort zone. Further falls could spell a head and shoulders top.
26th September: Despite the disappointing falls of last week, the trend is still up. This is shown by the supports in the medium term and the long term charts.
Current Prediction
Short term: hope for turn at the current level.
Long term: The weekly chart gives a hope for 12,000, having broken out of its long term resistance. This hope remains in tact so long as the index stays above 8,100. The trend is still up.
22nd September: As hoped, the index turned at 9,000.
15th September: The index touched 8,932, close to our 9,000 target. Hope for reversal now, which would follow the pattern of this year.
1st September: A little double top has given the index a slight case of influenza. We expect the patient to recover at 9,000.
25th August: Nice. Back up into the clouds, above the long term resistance. Channels all holding. Smooth sailing.
18th August: The medium term support (dark green) has not held. But a new ascending channel (blue) appears to be doing nicely.
11th August: Healthy consolidation last week brought the market back to the long term support of 9,800, or thereabouts. Ascending channels are holding nicely.
28th July: The index is holding nicely above the support, after a brief flirtation below the critical level. The blue ascending channel appears to be operating.
20th July: The index made a nice breakout last week above the resistance of the 18 month chart (green broken line). The long term chart also looks positive.
14th July: Resistance at 9,600. Could be a bit of a pullback before we get to 9,700. Check out the new long term chart below. Suggests this market is breaking out of something big.
8th July: The index is moving rapidly to target. The weekly chart shows resistance at current levels. It could take a month to reach the target within our current channel.
29th June: The balloon rises towards its target.
Current Prediction: Ascending triangle with target at 9,700. But note that the pattern doesn't appear on the weekly chart.
23rd June: The index broke out decisively from its ascending channel. High volume adds fuel to the theory. Expect 9,700.
Current Prediction: Ascending triangle with target at 9,700. But note that the pattern doesn't appear on the weekly chart.
16th June: The index closed today close to its previous high, above the 8,600 level. It could be making an ascending triangle, although the first turn did not touch the neckline. Otherwise, the pattern appears to be valid: volume falling is consistent with the pattern, as are the continually rising lows, marked by the rising pink support. However, the prediction of 7,000 is cancelled.
9th June: Our doom and gloom prediction appears gradually to be less potent. We are still within the pink head and shoulders pattern. A mere pullback is occurring.
However, the long term support which broke last week can be redrawn. Check out the weekly chart. It could be a turn on support rather than a fall through the support.
On the other hand, we do not have any consolidation pattern such as a triangle or a reverse head and shoulders. If the index breaks 8,800 we would have a double bottom, but on decreasing volume. Thus there is nothing to indicate sustained gains.
2nd June: The weekly chart fell through a major support last week. Although the index is clinging to support on the daily chart, volume is still falling and nothing persuades us that the index will rise.
26th May: It's rather bold of us to predict 7,000 with the index hopping back up to the 8,100 level. But this is now a dangerous market. Only a break above 8,700 will cancel our gloomy prediction. The support at current levels is indeed very good. But the head and shoulders top shown by the pink line suggests that the next neckline will break, taking the index down to 7,000.
20th May: Each week a lower target: this week we see yet another head and shoulders top broken, taking the index down to 7,000.
12th May: Last week the index pulled back further than our neckline. It made us doubt our double top. But sure enough, the index fell three hundred points today, confirming the double top prediction and breaking through the neckline of a new head and shoulders top. Volume patterns are correct. Consolidation around the 7,800 point will give us another shoulder and further target.
5th May: A reversal pattern ends the current rally for a while.
28th April: After hitting our target of 8,700 the index is now making a triangle. Tough resistance on the green broken line suggests a correction.
19th April: The index turns after hitting target.
8th April: As predicted, we are getting another triangle. That means we can't say what will happen till the pattern breaks, either up or down. The weekly chart shows that the current prediction has not been satisfied. So I expect the index to break upside.
28th March: Could be a symmetrical triangle in the making. Just a guess, but the Taiwan Weighted likes symmetrical triangles. This means no clues yet as to direction
17th March: The index soared past the one year resistance today, to reach a new high at 8,426. Pretty good going for a channel that has been operating since late January without major correction.
10th March: The meteoric rises of the past few weeks look like they might be contained by the resistance shown by the violet channel. A bit of a breather would not go amiss.
3rd March: The index raced past our target of 7,650 last week. It is now testing the 8,000 point. Volume is increasing nicely and will assist the next move. A little correction wouldn't be surprising, perhaps another little symmetrical triangle.
14th February: As expected, our triangle broke this week. We now have a short term target of 7,650. I should note that the triangle only has two turns. But the pattern made in the previous consolidation (green triangle) suggests a rising set of triangles. The prediction is fairly good.
10th February: Market was closed for most of last week. Our triangle is still valid. It will either break this week or we will have a return to 7,200.
3rd February: Looks like another symmetrical triangle is forming. Wouldn't be surprised. Patterns usually repeat themselves. And a day reversal (see last week) is a good start for a symmetrical triangle that will breakout upward.
27th January: The index made a one day reversal on 23rd January. The characteristics of the reversal are the same as those of the Dow, strong volume, new high, but finishing the day lower than the previous session.
Note that the volume was very strong on the 23rd. We have highlighted the volume bar that day with violet.
Compare also, a similar day reversal on 3rd December, last year. That reversal day made the highest turn in a symmetrical triangle. We might expect that the current day reversal marks such a point. Thereafter, we expect the index to continue up towards our minimum long term target of 8,600.
20th January: The index validated our prediction last week as it made its way to our objective at 7,300. Volume is still good.
13th January: The index made a classic breakout from its symmetrical triangle last week. Breakout was attended by very strong volume. Next stop 7, 300. Long term 8,600 (see above).
4th January: Our symmetrical triangle continues to form.
199623rd December: Nothing very interesting here. A breakout from a symmetrical triangle, but close the index. Our long term target of 8,600 is still valid.
16th December: Two scenarios looming: first, the index has made two pullbacks and is consolidating on its way up to our target at 8,600. The second scenario is a double top, which would take the index below the neckline (blue broken line) and down to who knows where?
10th December: The index pulled back towards its neckline of 6,700 last week. The big picture (see below) shows the target of 8,800.
25th November: The long awaited breakout from a major reverse head and shoulders finally happened last week.
The chart shows the head (touching 4,800 in January this year) and the right shoulder (mid June to November).
Measuring from the bottom (4,800) to the neckline (6,700) gives us a minimum movement up of around 1,900 points from the 6,700 mark.
This means that the Taiwan market is still in a major bull market. Expect the market to reach at least 8,600.
Notice that the volume has been building up nicely for the breakout. See the short term chart below.
18th November: Consolidation in progress. Action not wise unless and until the 6,700 mark (blue broken line) is decisively broken
18th October: A long term reverse head and shoulders may be forming. Our chart shows the right shoulder. The bottom of the head is around 4,600 (end 1995). The neckline is around 6,650. If it breaks, we can expect a minimum target of around 8,600.
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