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Thailand

8th March: The big news is that the PE for the SET last month dropped from a dangerous 24 to a much less alarming 16. No doubt the drop reflected a surge in earnings, as the price of the SET did not move substantially over the month. Although still high, the PE of 16 gives a chance that the SET will continue higher. This is still a big question mark. We would need to see a new high with a close above 760. A close above 300 for the banking sector could be a leading indicator. The communications sector, on the other hand, broke out of a top. If that breakout isn't repaired we could see weakness in that sector in the coming weeks.
 



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Charts current to 5th March, except where otherwise indicated


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Ascending triangle scenario taking shape.

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Top scenario in green requires a breakout at 660. Alternatively, we could see a range, as suggested by the pink line.

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Anything goes now: pink - continuation; green - range; black - top.

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Historical PE for the SET dropped dramatically as good earnings results increased the "E" part of the PE equation. However, a PE of 16 for the SET is still high by historical standards. In 2008 a PE in the current range accompanied the crash of that year. In 2004 the PE of 18 merely precipitated a range for two years as earnings increased.

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Top breakout could spell short term weakness.

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Symmetrical triangle scenario could go either way. A breakout this week would be highly bullish.

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Top in green has broken out. The wedge in orange is a possibility to consider.

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The top in green could metamorphosis into a wedge, shown in orange.


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Head and shoulders top scenario.

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Could go either way.

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Close to the blue regression line.

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Double top scenario, however higher volume on the second top does not conduce to topping.

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Now close to regression line in blue.


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New high for the baht.

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Charts below current to 8th January.
Resistance on the weekly chart at 800, or thereabouts.

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Link to individual Thai Stock Charts


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