A double top or head and
shoulders. A close below the current level would be a breakout. Given
the bearishness in the rest of the world, I see little chance of a
right shoulder.
Breakout
would see a fall back to 1,060 or lower. Note that previous similar
tops didn't see the index fall below the broken line currently at
around 1,120. See the pink scenario.
Long term target of 1,350 is still
persuasive.
Volume is sufficiently strong. However we could easily see a sharp
pullback
before
further bullish action.
The index is now above the 14 year mean. Resistance
at between
1,300 and 1,600.
Target
of 1,450 on the weekly
chart looks good. Turn on the channel resistance in orange is
consistent with the rally. Support at 1,050 would be consistent with
our top target above.
The top in green could see a fall back to 400 if we get a
breakout.
A
fall back to 400 would be consistent with the long term target of 520
and beyond. Volume over the last two years is sufficiently strong.
Small
top breakout is of no great significance in itself. However the overall
market weakness probably means this sector is going down.
Still
bullish, but not in the short term if the rest of the market is going
down.
P/E
chart current to 30th April. PE for the SET is now high
enough for a period of short term weakness.
PE jumped to 15. Let's see if
it
can break out.
Chart
below current to 27th March Double resistance in green
and orange almost broken.
If
the current resistance breaks, 1,300 has a good chance.
