History of Thailand's SET Index
2010

1st March: Volume picked up a bit last week as the index rallied, giving support to the ascending triangle scenario in the first chart below. The banking sector is also making a triangle. Let's see what happens in the next week or two. For now the outlook is still bearish, as shown by property and finance.

22nd February: Sideways last week on low volume gives nothing interesting to report. The bullish scenario in the first chart looks more credible. But note the PE chart at the bottom of the page. PE is still high by historical standards.

15th February: Still under the cloud of a big double top. Breakout would be at 660. See the top breakouts for BBL and TTA on the stocks page. These add impetus to the bearish outlook.

8th February: The double top scenario in the second chart has yet to break. But other sectors such as finance and property have broken out of clear tops. A fall below 660 would break the top and confirm the bear trend for the market.

18th January: The next test for the index is at the previous recent high. See the first chart below. The banking sector is also testing strong resistance this week. Petrochemicals made a strong move last week but is now testing resistance.

11th January 2010: The next test for the index is at the previous recent high. See the first chart below. The banking sector is also testing strong resistance this week.


2009
19th October: The sharp drop last week was not in itself of great significance. The market had rallied almost 70% year to date. Some sharp shocks are to be expected and do not amount to reversals of the trend. In fact the SET closed on Thursday above the support which has sustained the rally since March. It turned on that support on Friday. The rally has every chance of continuing.

Of more concern was the volume of the sell-off, which was a record for this rally and may indicate a changing of sentiment. Also of concern is the fact that the SET 50 index failed the support which has sustained the rally since March. The SET 50 also turned on a major resistance. (The SET has yet to reach analogous resistance, which would be at around 800). The banking sector also turned on a major resistance, as did energy. Considering these factors, and the fact that the PE for the SET last month was 27, a 19 year record high, it would be prudent to keep an eye out for tops and a reversal of the bullish trend.

27th July:   The comment to the first chart sums up the situation. Check out the stocks page. Many still look bullish.

20th July:   Last week's rally merely added ambiguity to the current picture. The SET and sectors are still in danger of topping. Volume for most of last week was rather small, suggesting the end of a bull trend. On the other hand, the property sector broke out of a falling wedge on good volume. This is bullish. Let's see what this week brings.

12th July:   A bearish top threatens the SET in the first chart. Similar tops appear for most sectors, except communications. Petrochemicals and energy have already broken out from tops. These are quite likely leading indicators.

6th July:  Still a bullish chance for the index as it clings to good support. However, a drop of another ten or twenty points will break the bullish channel that defines the ascent since March, giving rise to the prospect of a long term double bottom, as shown in the second chart. See channel resistances for sectors such as property and petrochemicals. Note also that the PE for the SET is at a fourteen year high and is on strong resistance. Difficult to feel bullish in such circumstances.

29th June:  Two scenarios for the index: either we see a double top scenario or the index continues to rally over the next few weeks and months to test the 720 resistance. Volume over the last week was low, which tends to support the bearish scenario. I would consider 720 unlikely. But markets are full of surprises. We shall have to wait and see what happens in the next couple of weeks.

22nd June:  The index turned last week at the strong resistance zone of around 630. See the second chart for a characterization of that resistance. A turn on resistance does not indicate a reversal. However the Thai market often makes medium term reversals without giving any topping pattern. It simply reverses. See the reversal in May 08 (last year) in the first chart. Thus, in this dangerous market, where confidence could evapourate without notice, it is a good idea to keep an eye on channel supports. Breakout downside from channel supports might be the only indication we get of an impending fall.

The market has rallied stupendously since March. It has now turned on strong resistance. The SET PE is at a record high. There could be more upside. (See the Thaistocks page with shows many bullish expectations.) But the "too much too soon" maxim could easily apply. Time for caution.

15th June:  The index is now in a strong resistance zone. PE for the SET is at a record high of 20. The market looks right for topping. But there is no sign of a top yet. A clear short term top, if we were to get one, would take a few weeks, at least to form. In the meantime, presume the trend to continue, which is bullish.

Current target

Short term:  none

8th June:  The index has passed all our targets. We may expect it to continue to rally so long as the bullish medium term channels hold in the first and the third charts. Topping could happen anywhere. Communications seems like the sector with the most upside in the near term.

Short term:  1. double top (weekly) points to 520 - done
                     2. double bottom (daily) points to 570 - done

Currency:  offshore rate double top points to 38 - questionable

11th May:  The index and all major sectors, except communications, are rallying from good bottoms with strong volume. Communications is the laggard, but may soon follow.

Current target

Short term:  1. double top (weekly) points to 520 - done
                     2. double bottom (daily) points to 570

Currency:  offshore rate double top points to 38

2nd May:  The index has broken out of a bottom on the daily chart giving a target of 570. Volume is sufficient to facilitate the index reaching target. Most of the major sectors have broken out of analogous bottoms. Chances for a continued rally over the next month or two are good.

Current target

Short term:  1. double top (weekly) points to 520
                     2. double bottom (daily) points to 570

Currency:  offshore rate double top points to 38

27th April:  A breakout on the SET weekly chart gives a target of 520. This breakout suggests that the daily chart will likely follow. Most of the sectors have broken out of analogous bottoms. Finance, Transport and Petrochemicals looks strong.

Current target

Short term:  double top (weekly) points to 520

Long term: 1. double top daily) points to 420 - done (log); 330 (arithmetic)
             2. double top (weekly) points to 440- done (log); 360 (arithmetic)
 

Currency:  offshore rate double top points to 38

20th April:  The SET had two good days of turnover last week. If this trend continues the chances of a breakout and rally to at least 570 are good. Petrochemicals is the best sector at the moment. There is a clear breakout from a bottom with good volume.

Current target

Long term: 1. double top daily) points to 420 - done (log); 330 (arithmetic)
                    2. double top (weekly) points to 440- done (log); 360 (arithmetic)

Currency:  offshore rate double top points to 38

13th April:  Much the same comment as that of the last two weeks prevails: the index needs more volume in order to make a persuasive reversal. Some good action in Petrochemicals. Other sectors need to echo Petrochemicals for a sustainable rally. Good supports for many sectors on long term charts gives hope that we are seeing a durable rally. But it's still a hope at this stage.

23rd March:  The index is on good support both on the long term log and weekly charts. A credible bottom would require a surge in daily turnover. 30 billion baht per day would be a good bottoming signal.

16th March:  The SET Index is not showing anything persuasive at the moment. The SET 50 gives more hope of upside. Finance and Property are making encouraging noises. But we need to see much more volume to persuaded of a sustainable rally.

Current target

Long term: 1. double top daily) points to 420 - done (log); 330 (arithmetic)
                    2. double top (weekly) points to 440- done (log); 360 (arithmetic)

Currency:  offshore rate double top points to 38

9th March:  A short term top suggests a retesting of the previous low of 390.

2nd March: The index is facing short term resistance. A fall to previous lows of the 390 region would not surprise.

23rd February: There is a possible bottom forming at the current level. But that is just a hope at the moment. Look to supports on the index and the sectors.

Current target

Long term: 1. double top daily) points to 420 - done (log); 330 (arithmetic)
                    2. double top (weekly) points to 440- done (log); 360 (arithmetic)
 

Currency:  offshore rate double top points to 38

2nd February: The small bottom in the first chart failed to reach target. Volume diminished after breakout. Now there is a fair chance that the index will make a larger bottom, perhaps first retouching the low of 380. If we are to get a reliable bottom we must first see daily turnover for the SET build above the 20 billion baht per day level. Sector charts suggest that the market is well supported at the current level.

Current target

Long term: 1. double top daily) points to 420 - done (log); 330 (arithmetic)
                    2. double top (weekly) points to 440- done (log); 360 (arithmetic)
 

Currency:  offshore rate double top points to 38
 
 

10th January 2009: A small bottom in the SET gives hope for a short term rally to 550. Volume is fair. But volume for some individual stocks is at record levels. TTA, True and QH are a few examples. Record level volumes after a plunge, such as occurred last year, are the sign of an impending reversal. Let's see if anything builds from the current short term patterns.

Current target

Long term:1. double top daily) points to 420 - done (log); 330 (arithmetic)
                    2. double top (weekly) points to 440- done (log); 360 (arithmetic)


2008
22nd December: A small bottom in the SET gives hope for a short term rally to 550. A close at 480 would be the trigger. Volume is persuasive. But this bottom is a mere short term bottom. It breaks the downtrend resistance that started in May. But it would not reverse the long term bearish trend. A more conservative guess is that we will see the index bottom over the next year or year and a half as is likely throughout the world. This would be a best case scenario. A new low next year would be the worst case.

Current target

Long term: 1. double top daily) points to 420 - done (log); 330 (arithmetic)
                    2. double top (weekly) points to 440- done (log); 360 (arithmetic)
 

Currency:  offshore rate double top points to 38

23rd November: The index is retesting its previous low. The best case scenario would be a bottom formed at the current level. Otherwise, consider supports below 400.

Current target

Long term: 1. double top daily) points to 420 - done (log); 330 (arithmetic)
                    2. double top (weekly) points to 440- done (log); 360 (arithmetic)
 

Currency:  offshore rate double top points to 38

10th November: Fair support at the current level. But bottoming would take weeks or months.

3rd November: The index has done log target. Now let's see if we get the first sign of a bottom or a fall to arithmetic target of 360.

Current target

Long term: 1. double top daily) points to 420 - done (log); 330 (arithmetic)
                    2. double top (weekly) points to 440- done (log); 360 (arithmetic)
 

Currency:  offshore rate double top points to 38

27th October: The index has done log target. Now let's see if we get the first sign of a bottom.

Current target

Long term: 1. double top daily) points to 420 - done (log); 330 (arithmetic) - confirmed
                    2. double top (weekly) points to 440- done (log); 360 (arithmetic) - confirmed
 

Currency:  offshore rate double top points to 38

20th October: The index has almost done target and is on very good support, as are most of the sectors. Good time for a bottom. Let's see if we get one.

Current target

Long term: 1. double top daily) points to 420 (log); 330 (arithmetic) - confirmed
                    2. double top (weekly) points to 440 (log); 360 (arithmetic) - confirmed
 

Currency:  offshore rate double top points to 38

10th October: The index has a target of 420.

Current target

Long term: double top points to 420 (log); 330 (arithmetic) - confirmed if index close below closed below 470.

Currency:  offshore rate double top points to 38

6th October: The index has good support at the current level in the first chart. But sectors such as banking, communications and property, suggest that the bear trend has further to go.

20th September: The index fell to top target. It is now testing support at the 600 level.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: 1. head and shoulders top (weekly) points (log) 645 - done , (arithmetic) 625 - done
                         2. head and shoulders top (daily) points (log) 620 - done , (arithmetic) 590 - done

Long term: none
 

Currency:  offshore rate double top points to 38

25th August: No change from last week: There is good support on the second chart. But the top in the first chart, on the SET 50 chart and on some of the sector charts, such as Energy and Petrochemicals are hard to ignore.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: 1. head and shoulders top (weekly) points (log) 645, (arithmetic) 625
                          2. head and shoulders top (daily) points (log) 620, (arithmetic) 590

18th August: There is good support on the second chart. But the top in the first chart, on the SET 50 chart and on some of the sector charts, such as Energy and Petrochemicals are hard to ignore.

4th August: The long term daily chart shows good support at the current level. But the SET 50 chart and many individual stock charts suggest a long term bear trend is in progress.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: 1. head and shoulders top (weekly) points (log) 645, (arithmetic) 625
                          2. head and shoulders top (daily) points (log) 620, (arithmetic) 590

Long term: none

28th July: The index is still under a bearish shadow. The SET 50 points much lower. But a new possible channel in the second chart gives hope for a bottom at the current level.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: 1. head and shoulders top (weekly) points (log) 645, (arithmetic) 625
                          2. head and shoulders top (daily) points (log) 620, (arithmetic) 590

21st July: Our long term target of 1,000 is cancelled. Good support on the daily chart at the current level and on the long term weekly chart. But there are signs of further weakness: SET 50 has a target of 400 and the energy sector has clearly topped. Banking is sitting on a good long term support. Let's see if it holds. Failure would confirm a long term bearish outlook.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: 1. head and shoulders top (weekly) points (log) 645, (arithmetic) 625
                          2. head and shoulders top (daily) points (log) 620, (arithmetic) 590
Long term:
1.  Symmetrical triangle (daily) points to 1,000 - cancelled
2.  Symmetrical triangle (weekly) points to 1,000 - cancelled

Currency:  none

14th July: The weekly chart has broken out of a top pointing to 645. But the longer term charts still show support. We need to wait a bit longer to confirm the top. Another twenty points down might resolve the uncertainty.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: head and shoulders top (weekly) points (log) 645, (arithmetic) 625

Long term:
1.  Symmetrical triangle (daily) points to 1,000 - questionable
2.  Symmetrical triangle (weekly) points to 1,000 - questionable

Currency:  none

7th July: Testing last ditch supports in the first four charts. If these supports fail, chances are that we will see a fall to 650 - at least.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:
1.  Symmetrical triangle (daily) points to 1,000 - questionable
2.  Symmetrical triangle (weekly) points to 1,000 - questionable

Currency:  none

30th June: After a surprising plunge (yes, I was quite surprised) the index and most sectors are sitting on good support. Only the transportation sector appears to be in danger of much more downside. There is also good support on the weekly chart. So we will have to wait and see whether supports hold.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:
1.  Symmetrical triangle (daily) points to 1,000
2.  Symmetrical triangle (weekly) points to 1,000

Currency:  none

12th May: No change from last week: the real test would be a rally above the neckline at 860. Resistance would then be at 930 to 960.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:
1.  Symmetrical triangle (daily) points to 1,000
2.  Symmetrical triangle (weekly) points to 1,000

Currency:  none

5th May: No change from last week: the real test would be a rally above the neckline at 860. Resistance would then be at 930 to 960.

28th April: The market only traded a few days last week. There was a bit of a rally. But the real test would be a rally above the neckline at 860. Resistance would then be at 930 to 960.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:
1.  Symmetrical triangle (daily) points to 1,000
2.  Symmetrical triangle (weekly) points to 1,000

Currency:  none

21st April: The market only traded a few days last week. There was a bit of a rally. But the real test would be a rally above the neckline at 860. Resistance would then be at 930 to 960.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:
1.  Symmetrical triangle (daily) points to 1,000
2.  Symmetrical triangle (weekly) points to 1,000

Currency:  none

14th April: Tiny movement last week. Banking, property and energy look strong.

Breakout from a reversal pattern in the banking sector gives hope that a similar pattern will soon break out for the SET. A close above 860 would confirm our target of 1,000. The property sector was active last week. A surge in that sector could amount to a breakout from a long term reversal pattern, which would be bullish.

7th April: Tiny movement last week. My previous comments still apply. Note we had two days last week with turnover  above 20 billion baht.

Breakout from a reversal pattern in the banking sector gives hope that a similar pattern will soon break out for the SET. A close above 860 would confirm our target of 1,000. The property sector was active last week. A surge in that sector could amount to a breakout from a long term reversal pattern, which would be bullish.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:
1.  Symmetrical triangle (daily) points to 1,000
2.  Symmetrical triangle (weekly) points to 1,000

Currency:  none

31st March: Breakout from a reversal pattern in the banking sector gives hope that a similar pattern will soon break out for the SET. A close above 860 would confirm our target of 1,000.

Bangkok Bank broke out of a reversal pattern with a target of 147. Volume is not sufficient to inspire much confidence at the moment, but the breakout is a 10 year high. Similarly, there are many stock charts showing price on good support, or about to break out of bullish patterns. Volume is lacking in all cases. We need to see a few days of turnover for the SET above 20 billion baht per day as a start, in order to be confident of a rally to the 1,000 level and beyond.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:
1.  Symmetrical triangle (daily) points to 1,000
2.  Symmetrical triangle (weekly) points to 1,000

Currency:  none

24th March: Key supports are 780 on the daily chart and 760 on the weekly chart. The bullish target prevails while these supports hold.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:
1.  Symmetrical triangle (daily) points to 1,000
2.  Symmetrical triangle (weekly) points to 1,000

Currency:  none

10th March: Key supports are 780 on the daily chart and 760 on the weekly chart. The bullish target prevails while these supports hold.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:
1.  Symmetrical triangle (daily) points to 1,000
2.  Symmetrical triangle (weekly) points to 1,000

Currency:  none

3rd March: The index is well supported, as are many of the sectors: commerce, finance and electronics are shown this week. The bullish long term target is the prevailing scenario provided the index stays above 760.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:
1.  Symmetrical triangle (daily) points to 1,000
2.  Symmetrical triangle (weekly) points to 1,000

Currency:  none

25th February: The index is well supported, as are many of the sectors, notably banking and energy. The bullish long term target is the prevailing scenario provided the index stay above 760.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:
1.  Symmetrical triangle (daily) points to 1,000
2.  Symmetrical triangle (weekly) points to 1,000

Currency:  none

21st January: Weakness in many sectors casts doubt on our target of 1,000. But banking is sitting on a very strong log scale support and the weekly SET chart shows a strong support at the current level. So there are pluses and negatives. Of course, the end of the global bull would be a big negative as the SET's strong performance since early 2003 correlates with that of most markets in the world. A fall below 740 would jeapordize our long term target.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:
1.  Symmetrical triangle (daily) points to 1,000
2.  Symmetrical triangle (weekly) points to 1,000

Currency:  none

14th January: Lots of good supports around. If they fail, the next good support level would be at 720 to 740. Target of 1,000 is still valid. But note that on the PE chart, at 12, the index is in the danger zone.

7th January 2008: The index and its long term target appear safe while the index remains above support at around 800. This support is shown clearly on the second chart.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:
1.  Symmetrical triangle (daily) points to 1,000
2.  Symmetrical triangle (weekly) points to 1,000

Currency:  none


2007
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
21st May: The index has broken out of a medium term double bottom giving a target of around 780. Strong resistance at 750 makes the target questionable. The index has also broken the resistance that defines the one year bear trend, giving a good chance that the index will reverse and start a bull trend.

14th May: The index has turned on resistance in the first chart at around 720. Banking is in danger of topping. If that happens, the index is in danger of  weakening in the short term. As for the medium term, there is very little indication. Property and Petrochemicals are the most promising sectors.

23rd April: Very little change since last week and nothing solid to go on. Significant short term support is at around 670 and resistance at around 720. Between these levels, the index is just ranging.

 

12th March: Still not much to go on. The scenario in the first chart suggests that the index might make another longer bottom, retesting the recent low 600 level. But that's just a guess. Many good long term bottoming scenarios in individual stocks. But big banks BBL and SCB are encountering resistance.

 

19th February: The sharp rally from around 610 to 700 looks like too much too soon. Although the short term trend is still bullish, I would not be surprised if we saw a fall back to, or near, the previous bottom, and a more leisurely second bottom over the coming months. Just a hunch. There really isn't much to go on.

12th February: A strong rally last week with good volume last Thursday. But nothing to suggest a bottom for the market, other than a turn on long term support in the second chart. The first chart shows a one year bear market, which we must presume until the contrary is shown.

 
 
 

2006

23rd December: Last week's falls too the index and most of the sectors to good long term supports, with the exception of communications, which has at least fulfilled the minimum target for a long term top pattern. Now it's a question of waiting and seeing what happens next. With luck we will see bottoming patterns. But the alternative would be the start of a medium term bear market. The latter would not surprise, given the lack of confidence in the market. However, it would be premature to make such a judgment.

 
 
16th October: A bullish scenario in the first chart has hope if the index rallies above 715 on strong volume. But resistance at the current level is strong. Only a rally above 730 would pass all the nearby resistances.

9th October: The outlook for this market is ambiguous, as is shown in the first chart. A fall through 680 would give a bearish short term outlook. A rally above 720 would be bullish.

2nd October: A fall below 675 would likely see a further fall to at least 650. A turn on support at 680, in the first chart, could give a bullish result.

18th September: Good volume last week but the outlook is still ambiguous. A close above 715 on good volume would be a good start.
21st August: The index has made a short term bottom. But there is still a danger of large top, especially if the index fails to pass 720. On the other hand, the index could retest recent lows and make a longer term double bottom, as it did in 2004. Whatever happens, we have a few months of uncertainty ahead.

7th August: Good bottoming chance for the index: good double bottoms with good volume for the index and some sectors. Resistance at the current level and at 720. Failure to pass 720 would raise the alarm of a major bear reversal.

 
 
 
 19th June: The SET has found support at the current level. But Banking and Finance sector long term charts have failed, giving the prospect of even further downside. Communications could take a plunge.
8th May: The index has failed a short term support. But the Banking and Communications sectors look well supported. With luck, Thailand will soon follow the strong bullish regional trend.

Current prediction

Short term: 1. double bottom points to 787 - now questionable
                    2. rising wedge points to 755

Medium term: none

Long term: symmetrical triangle points to 960 (daily and weekly) - on hold till we get a breakout from resistance at around 770.

Currency:  none

1st May: The index still has a bullish chance provided we don't see a close below 755. The banking and finance sectors are well supported. The fund chart gives a bullish signal, but also shows long term resistance.

Current prediction

Short term: double bottom points to 787 - now questionable

Medium term: none

Long term: symmetrical triangle points to 960 (daily and weekly) - on hold till we get a breakout from resistance at around 770.

Currency:  none

17th April: The index pulled back a bit too far last week, making short term predictions questionable. The banking sector fell below a good support, removing some of the joy of the previous week.

Current prediction

Short term: double bottom points to 787 - now questionable

Medium term: none

Long term: symmetrical triangle points to 960 (daily and weekly) - on hold till we get a breakout from resistance at around 770.

Currency:  none

9th April: The index has a target of around 790. Good volume supports the target. A higher target in the banking sector also suggests that the market is going higher.

Current prediction

Short term: double bottom points to 792

Medium term: none

Long term: symmetrical triangle points to 960 (daily and weekly) - on hold till we get a breakout from resistance at around 770.

Currency:  none

3rd April: Good long term supports for the index and the Banking and Finance sectors. But the short term picture remains bearish unless the index can rally above 750 on strong volume.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: symmetrical triangle points to 960 (daily and weekly) - on hold till we get a breakout from resistance at around 770.

Currency:  non

27th March:  The scenario in the first chart is still the prevailing influence. A descending triangle in black is clearly bearish. A failure of the support at 724 could see the index fall as low as 680 in a few weeks.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: symmetrical triangle points to 960 (daily and weekly) - on hold till we get a breakout from resistance at around 770.

Currency:  none

17th March:  The index rallied on low volume last week, not inspiring confidence. Danger is that the index is making a descending triangle in the short term, with a consequent fall to 680. Too early to say yet. But the falling volume is bearish in the short term. On the other hand, the strong volume in January in the second chart is still consonant with a breakout from a long term triangle, as shown in that chart.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: symmetrical triangle points to 960 (daily and weekly) - on hold till we get a breakout from resistance at around 770.

Currency:  none

13th March:  The index shows good support at the current level. However, if the index breaks support in the first and second charts, a fall back to 680 should be contemplated.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: symmetrical triangle points to 960 (daily and weekly) - on hold till we get a breakout from resistance at around 770.

Currency:  none

6th March:  Major resistances at 760 and 765. Falling volume over the last week is not encouraging. The long term banking sector chart has been redrawn to show resistance at the current level. Let's see if that breaks. A strong rally from the banking sector would inspire confidence.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: symmetrical triangle points to 960 (daily and daily) - on hold till we get a breakout from resistance at around 770.

Currency:  none

13th February: The banking sector is still the most encouraging indicator for the market. The long term banking sector chart is still strongly bullish. The short term is, however, ambiguous. A rally above 744 on strong turnover of at least 30 billion baht would suggest an end to the recent weakness. A fall below 725 would suggest a retesting of 700.

6th February: A little top in the first chart could see the index fall back to 700 if we see a close below 735. However, Banking, Communications and Property all look bullish and safely supported. Finance is supported nearby. Thus, on balance, the market looks well supported.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: symmetrical triangle points to 960 (daily and daily)

Currency:  none

30th  January: A nice turn and rally on the support in the second chart adds impetus to the target of 960 to 980. Top danger in the first chart should be kept in mind until the index breaks the current resistance level. A close at 770 should do the trick.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: symmetrical triangle points to 960 (daily and daily)

Currency:  none

23rd January: The sell-off last week may be characterized as profit taking as the index pulls back to the neckline of the triangle in the second chart. The banking sector index shows a similar pullback. Both of these pullbacks are consonant with bullish targets provided we see the index make a new recent high in the next week or two.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: symmetrical triangle points to 960 (daily and daily)

Currency:  none

9th January: The index broke out of a triangle pattern with good volume of 50 billion baht on breakout. Target of 980 is highly likely. Note also the collection of triangles on the weekly chart, suggesting that the market often fulfills triangle targets.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: symmetrical triangle points to 960 (daily and daily)

Currency:  none


2005

24th December: A fair reversal scenario in the first chart gives hope that the index is now bottoming. The signal would be a strong rally on daily turnover of 30 billion baht or more.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid but probability has decreased due to fall below 680

Currency:  none

19th December: The short term bottoming scenario in the first chart could see a few more days of falling. A breakout thereafter with strong volume would be bullish. The long term banking sector index is the other important indicator to watch. A rally to 268 on strong volume would be a breakout from long term resistance and a potential long term reversal pattern.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid but probability has decreased due to fall below 680

12th December: The index made an impressive rally last week, on good volume. The wedge in the first chart suggests a retesting of recent high at around 705. But wedges are not reliable for targets.  More interesting is the long term banking sector chart. This chart shows the sector index testing long term neckline resistance for a pattern the breakout of which would portend a very strong rally for the banking sector and, quite likely, the whole market.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid but probability has decreased due to fall below 680

Currency:  none

5th December: The index and major sectors are on or near good supports. But there is no sign of a reversal yet. With luck, we will see on soon.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid but probability has decreased due to fall below 680

Currency:  none

28th November: The banking sector is well supported. But the finance sector has fallen further than expected and could fall to as low as 750, if we don't see a bottom soon. The index has support at the current level and at around 650

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid but probability has decreased due to fall below 680

Currency:  none

21st November: Very good supports in the SET index and Banking and Finance sectors suggest that the market should not fall much further. If these supports break, we shall have to re-evaluate the medium term outlook. However, the greater probability is that the index should soon bottom.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid but probability has decreased due to fall below 680

Currency:  none

14th November: Nothing exciting with the index; just a pullback to support in the first chart.

Current prediction
Short term: reverse head and shoulders points to 750 - cancelled

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid but probability has decreased due to fall below 680

Currency:  none

7th November: The index has turned on good supports in the first and third charts. Banking, finance and communications all have turned on good support.

Current prediction
Short term: reverse head and shoulders points to 750 - cancelled

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid but probability has decreased due to fall below 680

Currency:  none

31st October: The index is well supported, as are the banking, finance and property sector indices. If the SET fails the current support, the danger is a fall back to 650.

Current prediction
Short term: reverse head and shoulders points to 750

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid but probability has decreased due to fall below 680

Currency:  none
17th October: A small top in the first chart suggests bearishness. But the long term charts for Banking, Finance and Communications sectors are all very near good support. I would not expect the index to fall far.

Current prediction
Short term: reverse head and shoulders points to 750

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid but probability has decreased due to fall below 680

Currency:  none
10th October: The index is balancing on channel support in the first chart. A rally this week would improve the chances of the index reaching short term target of 750. Finance and Communications sectors are well supported in the medium and long terms and Banking is well supported in the long term. The index looks primed for a major rally.

Current prediction
Short term: reverse head and shoulders points to 750

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid but probability has decreased due to fall below 680

Currency:  none

26th September: Breakout from resistance in the first chart gives a good chance of  750, perhaps 770. Resistance at 800 - 830, would be the big test.

Current prediction
Short term: reverse head and shoulders points to 750 - 770 - highly likely if the index breaks 720 on strong volume of 30 billion baht.

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid but probability has decreased due to fall below 680 in recent weeks.

Currency:  none

19th September:   The index is now testing strong resistance. A close at 720 would pass the obstacle. On the other hand, a fall back to 690 would likely end the current medium term bull rally.

Current prediction
Short term: reverse head and shoulders points to 750 - highly likely if the index breaks 720 on strong volume of 30 billion baht.

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid but probability has decreased due to fall below 680 in recent weeks.

Currency:  none

12th September: Strong resistance for the SET, the banking sector and the property sector. Breakout from the banking sector long term chart would be especially important if it were accompanied by a surge of volume.

Current prediction
Short term: reverse head and shoulders points to 750 - highly likely if the index breaks 720 on strong volume of 30 billion baht.

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid but probability has decreased due to fall below 680 in recent weeks.

Currency:  none

5th September: Unexpected breakout, on good volume, from the pattern in the first chart gives a tentative target of 760. Resistance at 718 and then around 740.

Current prediction
Short term: reverse head and shoulders points to 760 - highly likely if the index breaks 720 on strong volume of 30 billion baht during the week of 5th September.

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid but probability has decreased due to fall below 680 in recent weeks.

Currency:  none

29th August: Nice rallies. Not enough volume for a persuasive bottom now. However, there is a good chance that the index has bottomed. Most persuasive is the long term support in yellow on the long term banking sector chart. Finance is well supported too. Now it's a matter of volume building.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid but probability has decreased due to fall below 680 in recent weeks.

Currency:  none

22nd August: Best thing for the index now would be to move sideways for another few weeks and build up volume. Noticeable increase of daily turnover, from the current tens to the mid twenties, upper twenties and then thirty billion baht per day would be the signal of a continuation of the bull. Keep an eye on banking stocks . They look well supported, suggesting that the index is now at a bottom.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid but probability has decreased due to fall below 680 in recent weeks.

Currency:  none

8th August: The best case scenario is shown in the first chart, which would require a bit of consolidation for another six weeks or so. Finance is doing well. See also a little breakout on the weekly chart.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid but probability has decreased due to fall below 680 in recent weeks.

Currency:  none

1st August: The index broke out of a little double bottom, as expected last week. But daily turnover for the index is too low to inspire confidence. I would not be surprised if the index fails at 695, or thereabouts.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid but probability has decreased due to fall below 680 in recent weeks.

Currency:  none

25th July: The good news is that the long term supports for Banking, Finance and Communications are all in tact. The bad news is that volume is not picking up, which we would expect, for an impending bottom. Best hope for swift end to the current bear trend would be a sharp double bottom, resembling three bottoms that occurred last year.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid but probability has decreased due to fall below 680 in recent weeks.

Currency:  none

20th July: The index appears to have fallen too far to rally much further this year. At the very least, I would expect the index to be trapped in the 600 range or the next few months and quite likely till the middle of next year. This is just idle musing. There is nothing very clear to go on. In the short term, a fall back to the 640 level would give the index a chance to bottom at its current level. If that doesn't happen, the bleak scenarios listed below should be considered. Keep an eye on BBL , on the next page.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid, and increasing in probability.

Currency:  none

11th July: Dangerous long term scenario could see the index fall to 540 or even 450. Uggh. But the Banking and Finance sectors are both on good long term supports. Let's hope they hold.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid, and increasing in probability.

Currency:  none

27th June: Low volume suggests that the index is unlikely to pass 700 in the short term. Another few weeks of bottoming would be beneficial if volume picks up.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid, and increasing in probability.

Currency:  none

20th June: The market needs more turnover in order for a credible bottom to happen.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid, and increasing in probability.

Currency:  none

13th June: Nothing persuasive in the SET index. The best case scenario, shown in the first chart below, would be a fall back to 660 and another two weeks of consolidation. A rally beyond 690 at the current low volume would only add confusion. The long term banking and finance sector indices both give hope for a continuation of the long term bullish trend. Communications and Property are less persuasive.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid, and increasing in probability.

Currency:  none

6th June: A very lazy market. Good supports in the Finance and Property sectors. But it will be at least another few weeks before the medium term trend is resolved.

Current prediction
Short term: head and shoulders top points to 645, confirmed below 670 - cancelled

Medium term: triple bottom points to 770

Long term: double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid, and increasing in probability.

Currency:  none

21st May: Another week or two of sideways movement would increase the chances of a bottom, as shown in the scenario in the first chart. Otherwise, we should consider the prospect of seeing the index fall to 645, or thereabouts.

Current prediction
Short term: head and shoulders top points to 645, confirmed below 670

Medium term: triple bottom points to 770

Long term: double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid, and increasing in probability.

Currency:  none

16th May: No clear indicators. Some supports are still holding. But these are continually moving in an attempt to save the long term targets. Far better to wait for a clear bottoming indication. We may have a bottom develop from the pattern in the first chart. But, ideally, this would take another week or two.

Current prediction
Short term: head and shoulders top points to 645, confirmed below 670

Medium term: triple bottom points to 770

Long term: double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid, and increasing in probability.

Currency:  none

25th April: The index is still safe, although dangerously perched on a support. A close at 670 would break the support and we would likely see a fall to 645.

Current prediction
Short term: head and shoulders top points to 645, confirmed below 670

Medium term: triple bottom points to 770

Long term: double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid, and increasing in probability.

Currency:  none

18th April: Support at around 678 is the one to watch.

Current prediction
Short term: head and shoulders top points to 645

Medium term: triple bottom points to 770

Long term: double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid, and increasing in probability.

Currency:  none

11th April: Yellow support in the third chart, at the current level, is the most important. If the support breaks, we may see a fall back to 600. Failure of a similar support on the weekly chart is dangerous. The weekly chart is usually a leading indicator. Finance and Communications sectors are well supported. So is Property. Banking has a very promising long term scenario. Thus there is a chance that we will see the weekly chart repair its broken support and the index continue its bullish trend. But be prepared for further falls until the 'all clear' is sounded. Keep an eye on BBL too (see next page).

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term: triple bottom points to 770

Long term: double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid, and increasing in probability.

Currency:  none

4th April: The index is not giving a clear picture of support at the current level. But all the major sectors are sitting on strong supports, suggesting that the index has bottomed. We'll know in a few days. If the market keeps falling and we see another close at 670 or lower, we can expect 645.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term: triple bottom points to 770

Long term: double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid, and increasing in probability.

Currency:  none

21st March: Banking, Finance and Communications all turned on good support last week. But there is no sign of a short term bottom yet. We could still see a fall back to 690, unless we see a close at or above 725 on strong volume of at least 25 billion baht daily turnover for a few days. Breakout in Agriculture.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term: triple bottom points to 770

Long term: double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid, and increasing in probability.

Currency:  none

14th March: Good support at 690. Finance, Communications and Property are all near good long term supports. Banking is likely to fall further, say around 230.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term:  triple bottom points to 770

Long term:  double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid, and increasing in probability.

Currency:  none

8th March: A close on support at around 750 in the first chart would remove concern about a fall back to 700. Good supports in sector charts.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term:  triple bottom points to 770

Long term:  double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid, and increasing in probability.

Currency:  none

21st February: The market clearly seems to be on the way up in the long term. Targets of around 900 are quite likely to be seen this year. The medium term, however, could see a fall back to the 700 level unless we get a close around 745 or higher this week. Volume is not too encouraging. The energy sector's breakout from long term resistance, on the other hand, does inspire confidence. Keep an eye on BBL. If it breaks 114 on strong volume of 15 million shares, or higher, chances for a rally for the whole market are good.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term:  triple bottom points to 770

Long term:  double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid, and increasing in probability

14th February: The index has reached resistance at around 740 and turned. There is support at around 720. Below that, support is as low as 690. If the index breaks resistance at around 745, there is a good chance that we will see our medium term target of  770 in the next few weeks. The banking sector has a strong resistance at 270. Breakout from that resistance would be bullish.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term:  triple bottom points to 770

Long term:  double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid, and increasing in probability.

Currency:  none

31st January: Chances of 770 are good provided the index stays above 690.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term:  triple bottom points to 770

Long term:  double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid, and increasing in probability.

Currency:  none

17th January: Highly likely that we will see the index reach the upper 740's in the next few weeks. What happens after that depends on volume. If we see daily turnover exceding 30billion baht per day consistently, chances are good that the index will break the resistance just under 750.

Current prediction
Short term: reverse head and shoulders points to 710 - done intra-day today, 17th January

Medium term:  triple bottom points to 780

Long term:  double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid, and increasing in probability.

Currency:  none

10th January: The index appears to be back on track for target of 910, after spending most of last year pulling back to the big long term double bottom. See the long term charts below and not the weekly chart resistance at around 1,000.

Current prediction
Short term: reverse head and shoulders points to 710

Medium term:  triple bottom points to 780

Long term:  double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid, and increasing in probability.

Currency:  none


2004

20th December: A short term pattern points to 710. There is strong resistance, however, at 690. The Banking Sector is still looking strong, thereby giving the index a good chance of breaking out of the 700 level in coming weeks.

Current prediction
Short term: reverse head and shoulders points to 710

Medium term:  none

Long term:  double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid, and increasing in probability.

Currency:  none

13th December: The banking sector has turned on the support of a medium term double bottom. That is the most encouraging indicator for the market. The SET could fall to 620 - see the first chart. Otherwise, not much to go on. I prefer to watch the banking sector.

Current prediction
Short term:  none

Medium term:  none

Long term:  double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid, and increasing in probability.

Currency:  none

6th December: The fund chart shows a breakout from a medium term pattern. Otherwise, the index and major sector charts (banking, finance, communication and property) are all waiting to break out from bottom scenarios.

Current prediction
Short term:  none

Medium term:  none

Long term:  double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid, and increasing in probability.

Currency:  none
20th November: The top pointing to 600 is cancelled. Strong signals in the banking sector suggest further upside. Property and finance could be coming back to life. 690 has a good chance if volume holds firm.

Current prediction
Short term: 1. double top points to 595 (more likely 600 due to medium term support) - cancelled
 

Medium term:  none

Long term:  double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid, and increasing in probability.

Currency:  none
15th November: No clear indication from the index. But the banking sector has made a little bottom and has broken out of a medium term resistance on good volume. Strength in the banking sector is often a leader for the market as a whole. Look at the property and finance sectors. These sectors are both on strong long term support and offer a good chance for bargains for those who dare to go bottom fishing.

Current prediction
Short term: double top points to 595 (more likely 600 due to medium term support) - cancelled if the index closes at 650.

Medium term:  none

Long term:  double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid, and increasing in probability.

Currency:  none

25th October: The index is not giving clear indication of short term direction. But the banking sector is looking reasonably strong, with a nice short term bottom. The finance sector showed strength by shrugging of a short term top, as did the communication sector. However, volume last week was not encouraging. Another week might give a clearer picture: in particular, will the banking sector maintain its bullish path?

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term:  double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid, and increasing in probability.

Currency:  none

18th October: Support at 639 or slightly lower is critical for the short term. The finance sector still looks bearish. But that could change with a slightly higher close on the finance sector index. The long term scenario is still the prevailing indicator and it still looks persuasive.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term:  double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid, and increasing in probability.

Currency:  none

11th October: The index is now testing neckline resistance at 670. A breakout on high volume, followed by sustained high volume, would give a target of 770. A breakout from a short term pattern in the weekly chart is encouraging.

20th September: The long term daily and weekly charts show encouraging breakouts with fairly good volume. A breakout above 670 on strong volume would suggest a retesting of 760 and perhaps beyond.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term:  double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid, and increasing in probability.

Currency:  none

4th September:  A nice bottoming pattern appears to be forming on long term double bottom neckline. A slow rally to 670 not before early next month would be the best scenario.

Current prediction
Short term: double bottom points to 635 - done

Medium term:  none

Long term:  double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid, but looking weak.

Currency:  none

30th August: Little double bottoms are appearing in the SET, the finance and the communications sectors. These patterns could be an indication of the bottom of the long term bearish trend that started at the beginning of the year. Also encouraging is the turn on the neckline of our long term bullish pattern in the third chart.

Current prediction
Short term: double bottom points to 635

Medium term:  none

Long term:  double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid, but looking weak.

Currency:  none

23rd August: The index has found good support. But there is no bottom formation yet. We need to wait at least a few weeks for a bottom to form, before concluding that the index has reversed its medium term bearish trend. The long term hope is shown in the third chart. There is still good reason to be hopeful. The BBL chart (next page) still shows a bullish pattern. And many stocks, especially those in property and finance, are on excellent support. However, the sharpness of the fall over the last few months suggests that many stocks will not return to the highs of this year for at least another year or two. There is still plenty of good trading opportunity to be had in the intervening volatility. With luck, we will have buy signals in a few weeks.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term:  double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid, but looking weak.

Currency:  none

9th August: The banking sector is testing last ditch support. But a number of important supports have failed: long term SET and communications sectors. Thus the chances of the index reaching our long term target of 900, are looking weaker than in previous months. Important support will be that of 570 on the weekly chart, should the index fall so low. Keep an eye on the banking sector. If it falls a few points lower, chances are that the index is going to test the 570 support.

Current prediction
Short term: head and shoulders top points to 605

Medium term:  none

Long term:  double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid, but looking weak.

Currency:  none

2nd August: The banking sector is holding on to last support. See the long term chart below. If the support fails, chances are that the index will take a dive to support at 570. But there is cause for hope that the current strong long term supports will hold.

Current prediction
Short term: head and shoulders top points to 605 - only cancelled if the index closes above 640.

Medium term:  none

Long term:  double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid

26th July: The index broke out of a little top today, pointing to 605. We should expect this target soon, unless the index shrugs off the little pattern in the first chart and closes at 640.

The long term daily chart is still the basis for hope (third chart). It shows the index still on channel support. The Banking Sector long term chart is similarly on long term support, despite a sharp drop today and last week. While these supports hold, we can be cautiously optimistic that the index is still in bull mode.

Current prediction
Short term: head and shoulders top points to 605 - only cancelled if the index closes above 640.

Medium term:  none

Long term:  double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid

Currency:  none

12th July: The banking and communications sectors gained a little strength last week. With luck, they will be strong enough to propel the index over the resistance at the current level. If the index breaks 675 with volume increasing to around 30 billion baht for a few days, we would have a good chance of seeing 715 in the short term.

Current prediction
Short term: double bottom points to 705 - confirmed if index closes above 672

Medium term:  triple top points to  520 (log) and 490 (arithmetic) - cancelled

Long term:  double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid

Currency:  none
28th June: The index closed above a medium term resistance at 640. Volume, however, was weak. We really need a return to the 30 or 40 million level before we can expect a big rally. On the other hand, several sector indices have turned nicely on long term supports, giving hope that the market has at least found a bottom. Too early to say with confidence.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term:  triple top points to  520 (log) and 490 (arithmetic)

Long term:  double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid

Currency:  none

31st May: The index could be bottoming at the current level. Evidence is in the short term SET daily chart, the long term banking chart and the short term finance chart, as shown below.

If the index is bottoming at the current level, we will have very nice long term double bottoms on the daily, weekly and fund charts suggesting at least a 50% upside for the market in the medium term (three to six months).

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term:  triple top points to  520 (log) and 490 (arithmetic)

Long term: 1. double bottom (daily) pointing to 860 (pink pattern) and 880 (grey pattern)-cancelled
                   2. double bottom (daily - sloping up neckline) pointing to 960-cancelled
                   3. double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid
All long term targets less likely

Currency:  none

10th May: There is a chance that the index will form a base at the current level. In such case, we would still have one valid target of around 920. The others seem unlikely. If the index falls much below 590, I think we should expect 520. Look to the banking sector. If it falls to around 210, I think we should assume the worst.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term:  triple top points to  520 (log) and 490 (arithmetic)

Long term: 1. double bottom (daily) pointing to 860 (pink pattern) and 880 (grey pattern)
                   2. double bottom (daily - sloping up neckline) pointing to 960
                   3. double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid
All long term targets less likely

Currency:  none

3rd May: The index fell to our short term bearish target last week. What can I say about the medium term? Confusion again. The failure of the SET to breach the 715 level, a couple of weeks ago, was a big disappointment. The whole region is now in danger of extending the current medium term bearish trend. This would tend to put our long term targets in doubt. However, the Banking Sector gives the clearest picture. The Banking Sector chart shows the sector is still safe. Provided the sector stays above support at around 228, we can presume that the medium term is bullish. Otherwise we would be looking for support somewhere around 580.

Current prediction
Short term: double top points to 650 - done

Medium term:  none

Long term: 1. double bottom (daily) pointing to 860 (pink pattern) and 880 (grey pattern)
                   2. double bottom (daily - sloping up neckline) pointing to 960
                   3. double bottom (weekly) points to 900
All long term targets less likely

Currency:  none

26th April: Some weak short term signals for the SET index, the Finance and the Property sectors. But the long term charts all look very good, especially the third chart.

Current prediction
Short term: double top points to 650

Medium term:  none

Long term: 1. double bottom (daily) pointing to 860 (pink pattern) and 880 (grey pattern)
                   2. double bottom (daily - sloping up neckline) pointing to 960
                   3. double bottom (weekly) points to 900

Currency:  none

16th April: The third chart and the long term banking sector chart give the most compelling case for the medium to long term bull.

Current prediction
Short term: double top (weekly) points to 620 - cancelled

Medium term:  none

Long term: 1. double bottom (daily) pointing to 860 (pink pattern) and 880 (grey pattern)
                   2. double bottom (daily - sloping up neckline) pointing to 960
                   3. double bottom (weekly) points to 900

Currency:  none
12th April: The banking sector turned on the neckline of our long term reversal pattern. The greater probability now is that the index will soon retest resistances at around 750 and 800 and that we will soon see target. The weekly chart and fund chart also support a bullish long term scenario.

Current prediction
Short term: double top (weekly) points to 620 - dubious

Medium term:  none

Long term: 1. double bottom (daily) pointing to 860 (pink pattern) and 880 (grey pattern)
                   2. double bottom (daily - sloping up neckline) pointing to 960
                   3. double bottom (weekly) points to 900

Currency:  none

5th April: The index has broken upside from a wedge on persuasive volume. Good chance that the index has bottomed. Banking sector has turned on neckline support. Short term: likely that 750 will be retested. My hope/expectation is that 800 will soon break and we will soon see our long term targets

Current prediction
Short term: double top (weekly) points to 620

Medium term:  none

Long term: 1. double bottom (daily) pointing to 860 (pink pattern) and 880 (grey pattern)
                   2. double bottom (daily - sloping up neckline) pointing to 960
                   3. double bottom (weekly) points to 900

Currency:  none

15th March: Double bottom targets are still valid. The only danger for the market in the medium term is if the index falls below 650. We would then have a double top pointing to around 525. However, the long term patterns pointing to 860 and beyond are very strong and should be presumed highly probable unless cancelled. Keep an eye on the banking sector. 225 is an important support.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term: 1. double bottom (daily) pointing to 860 (pink pattern) and 880 (grey pattern)
                   2. double bottom (daily - sloping up neckline) pointing to 960
                   3. double bottom (weekly) points to 930 (pink pattern) and 1,000 (blue pattern)

Currency:  none

8th March: Danger of a double top in the short term. The important support would be at around 650. But keep an eye on channel supports. The weekly chart has shown a failure of the channel support. That is a danger. There are also tops forming in some sectors. Important support on the daily chart at around 685. But while the trend is bullish, we should presume upside until a valid top breaks. None has yet.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term: 1. double bottom (daily) pointing to 860 (pink pattern) and 880 (grey pattern)
                   2. double bottom (daily - sloping up neckline) pointing to 960
                   3. double bottom (weekly) points to 930 (pink pattern) and 1,000 (blue pattern)

1st March: The index rebounded last week on support at around 690. Now the question is whether it will hold above support or fall through. If the support fails, we have a double top scenario with neckline at around 650 and target of 510. On the other hand, we have a clear prediction of 880, at least. This target should prevail over the short term top. But we should be vigilant.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term: 1. double bottom (daily) pointing to 860 (pink pattern) and 880 (grey pattern)
                   2. double bottom (daily - sloping up neckline) pointing to 960
                   3. double bottom (weekly) points to 950

23rd February: Higher targets are clear, however, there is likely to be some short term weakness at the beginning of this week. Communications, Finance and Energy sectors look vulnerable.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term: 1. double bottom (daily) pointing to 860 (pink pattern) and 880 (grey pattern)
                   2. double bottom (daily - sloping up neckline) pointing to 960
                   3. double bottom (weekly) points to 950

16th February: The swift rally last week adds evidence to our prediction of 960. The Banking sector looks strong.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term: 1. double bottom (daily) pointing to 860 (pink pattern) and 880 (grey pattern)
                   2. double bottom (daily - sloping up neckline) pointing to 960
                   3. double bottom (weekly) points to 950

Currency:  none

9th February: Targets are in tact, despite the avian jitters of the last week. The astute technician will see that the volatility of the last couple of weeks had its inverse corollary in July 1997 (third chart). Thus if it wasn't bird flu that sent the market rollicking, it would, no doubt, have been something else. A few negative scenarios in the unlikely event that the market has entered a medium term bear trend. The greater probability would see a swift march to targets at around 860 and beyond.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term: 1. double bottom (daily) pointing to 860 (pink pattern) and 880 (grey pattern)
                  2. double bottom (daily - sloping up neckline) pointing to 960
                   3. double bottom (weekly) points to 950

26th January: Chicken flu panic struck the chicken-hearted last week, as the market fell to a low of 738. No significant change to the market conditions resulted. Long term targets stand. A close above 780 would likely end the current short term bearish trend. A close below 730 could see a fall to 690.

The big question is in the banking sector. The sector has a valid long term target of  310 and has good support at the current level. However, many banking stocks are making topping patterns and BAY has already broken one. A close at 255 for the sector would break out from a little double top with a target of around 230. But only a close below 247 would give a clear indication of a fall to 230. The greater probability is a rebound on the long term support at around 255.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term: 1. double bottom (daily) pointing to 860 (pink pattern) and 880 (grey pattern)
                   2. double bottom (daily-sloping up neckline) pointing to 960
                   3. double bottom (weekly) points to 950

Currency:  none

19th January: A short term top scenario in the first chart could see a fall back to the 700 level. However, the targets in the second chart are highly likely and target of 960 in the third chart could not be more persuasive.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term: 1. double bottom (daily) pointing to 860 (pink pattern) and 880 (grey pattern)
                   2. double bottom (daily-sloping up neckline) pointing to 960
                   3. double bottom (weekly) points to 950

Currency:  none

12th January: The index has a clear target of 960. There is strong resistance at 840 and approaching on many of the sector charts. Volume is excellent.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term: 1. double bottom (daily) pointing to 860 (pink pattern) and 880 (grey pattern)
                   2. double bottom (daily-sloping up neckline) pointing to 960
                   3. double bottom (weekly) points to 950

Currency:  none


2003

29th December: Slight resistances at 800 and 840. But target of 860 to 960 look good. Banking and Communications are the hottest sectors.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term: 1. double bottom (daily) pointing to 860 (pink pattern) and 880 (grey pattern)
                   2. double bottom (daily-sloping up neckline) pointing to 960
                   3. double bottom (weekly) points to 900

Currency:  none

1st December: Clear long term targets of 860. The short term is still uncertain and will remain so until we get a close above the resistances around 680. Communications is looking to be the hottest sector.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term: 1. double bottom (daily) pointing to 860 (pink pattern) and 880 (grey pattern)
                    2. double bottom (weekly) points to 880

Currency:  none

24th November: The banking and finance sectors are sitting on a dangerous neckline support. Communications is also sitting on an important support. If these supports break, the market is likely to fall further. On the other hand, a sudden rebound this week would confirm the bullish target for the communications sector. Other sectors are still strongly bullish: chemicals, commerce, energy.

The weekly chart is still bullish and nothing has occurred, during the current minor correction, to dampen confidence for the long term targets in the upper 800 region. There has been much chatter in Thailand about the market falling in response to new rules by the SET aimed at curbing "speculation" (whatever that is). This is parochialist nonsense. The whole region is in a minor bear trend and Thailand is merely following the regional trend. When sellers have finished taking profit, we may expect the region to move up again. Supports are at around 590 to 600 and then 540.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term: 1. double bottom (daily) pointing to 860 (pink pattern) and 880 (grey pattern)
                   2. double bottom (weekly) points to 880

17th November: All sectors looking bullish, especially the Communications sector. Target of 860 is still valid. But there is strong resistance at the 680 level that could even see a fall back to 600. I doubt it.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term: 1. double bottom (daily) pointing to 860 (pink pattern) and 880 (grey pattern)
                   2. double bottom (weekly) points to 880

10th November: Breakouts in the banking, finance and communications sectors on excellent volume, plus another record volume day for the total market give more fuel to the current rally. We can expect the current rally to continue for quite a while longer.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term: 1. double bottom (daily) pointing to 860 (pink pattern) and 880 (grey pattern)
                    2. double bottom (weekly) points to 880

3rd November: Next resistance at 680. But long term probability of 860 is increased by the breakout from 630 resistance.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term: 1. double bottom (daily) pointing to 860 (pink pattern) and 880 (grey pattern)
                    2. double bottom (weekly) points to 880

27th October: The strongest indicator is the weekly chart, which gives a clear target of around 880. In the short term, there is resistance between 620 and 630. We could even see a sharp fall. But the long term looks quite clear.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term: 1. double bottom (daily) pointing to 860 (pink pattern) and 880 (grey pattern)
                    2. double bottom (weekly) points to 880

20th October: No major development. The index closed at a new recent high last Friday, thereby reducing the threat of a double top. Next strong resistance would be in the range of 610 to 630.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term: double bottom (daily and weekly) both point to 860

13th October: The banking, finance and communications sectors are all testing strong resistances. If these resistances break, as I expect they will soon, we could see a sharp rally to our next resistance point of around 630 or 640. On the other hand, a fall below 540 would give a double top indicating a fall back to 500.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term: double bottom (daily and weekly) both point to 860

Currency:  none

6th October: Short term topping danger. But the long term double bottom should be given priority. Downside, if any, should not be lower than 500 - 520. Some stocks appear to be topping in the short term. But they could be testing necklines of long term bottoms. I would give priority to the long term patterns over the short term.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term: double bottom (daily and weekly) both point to 860

22nd September: Yet another record turnover day and all days last week with volume above the 50 day average. High volume gives further evidence for our target of 860. Last week's comments otherwise hold.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term: double bottom (daily and weekly) both point to 860

15th September: Another record daily turnover last Friday gives further evidence of a long term sustainable bull market. The double bottom with target of 860 is not confirmed by a pullback to the neckline and turn. But it is nonetheless a well defined neckline supported by excellent volume. We thus have a classic, text book example, of a long term reversal.

The finance sector had excellent volume last week too. Volume previously was lacking. It is now sufficient for a persuasive long term reversal. Turnover for the communications sector is still excellent. Despite the recent hesitation, chances of strong upside are excellent for that sector.

The banking sector, on the other hand, hasn't really yet started to move. (KTB is the chief laggard.) The sector needs to double merely to reach the neckline of its long term double bottom. (It is analogous to the SET earlier this year, in the mid 300's.) Volume is still unimpressive for the banking sector. But there is plenty of time for the sector to catch up and for volume for the sector to surpass that of January 2001. If this happens, we can expect the sector to quadruple to the 800 or 900 level in a year or two. If that happens, we can expect the SET to soar. The upper resistance on the long term weekly chart at around 1,900 would not be too fanciful. A lot of "ifs". However this market has fallen more than any other in the region. It has not yet recovered to a level one third of its all time high. The turnover pattern since March this year suggests that it might be time for playback.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term: double bottom (daily and weekly) both point to 860

Currency:  none

8th September: The bullish trend continued last week. The long term double bottom on the weekly chart broke out, confirming the target of the daily chart.
1st September:  Prospects for target of 860 increased over the last two weeks due to excellent volume. Some resistance at the 630 level. But the long term outlook is a textbook case of bullishness supported by strong volume.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term: double bottom points to 860

18th August: Excellent volume gives hope to our prediction of 860. The pattern still needs more time for confirmation. But chances are very good. The only worry is the long term bottom for the banking sector, which lacks volume. On the other hand, Finance, Communications, Property, Energy and Commerce all look very strong.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term: double bottom points to 860

11th August: The index broke out today from a long term bottom pointing to 860. If the pattern remains valid over the next few weeks and volume remains strong, we could confirm the target. First major resistance would be at around 630. Time frame for the target would be within a year. Volume and proportion of the patter are both excellent. Accordingly, chances of 860 in the next 12 months or so are high.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term: double bottom points to 860

4th August: Lots of bullish indicators in the market. But there is no clear sign from the SET index chart itself as it tests a long term resistance. With luck, something clearer will appear this week: either a rally above 510, or a fall below 465 would add a bit of clarity to the current trend.

28th July: The index is in danger of making a short term double top at the current level. Downside would be 20% - around 400. But I doubt that would happen.

Most of the sectors have a similar double top pattern developing. But many of the sectors look bullish in the long term, such that a short term top would not be a threat.

We are still waiting for the index to break above the neckline at around 518. A close at around 525 on very strong volume would give a tentative breakout from the double bottom in the third chart. Confirmation of the bottom after breakout, by way of pullback to and turn on the neckline, would give a target of 860, provided volume supported the pattern.

21st July: The resistance at around 518 in the third chart, is now the most important indicator. This resistance forms the neckline of a long term double bottom shown in the fourth chart. If the index breaks this neckline persuasively, with a surge of volume equal to or greater than the recent record breaking daily turnover figures, we would have a good chance at seeing a target in the upper 800's. The second chart shows strong resistance at the current level. The first chart shows a scenario for failure of the current rally.

5th July: Last week saw the index rally on turnover of more than 30 billion baht on both Thursday and Friday. This is the highest daily turnover that I have recorded in seven years of record keeping. It satisfies the major precondition for a long term reversal pattern. We now have good reason to hope that the index will make a long term double bottom with neckline at around 510 and giving a target of 880.

See the third chart. If the index breaks the neckline on volume equal to or exceeding that of last Thursday and Friday, chances are good that we will see a dramatic rally to 880 over the subsequent months to a year. Sounds too optimistic? I would say the chances are more likely than not, given the record volume last week.

The only reservation I have is the long term banking sector index. Volume has been good in recent weeks. But looking at the long term chart, volume is still not sufficient.

30th June: No short term targets, but volume is building and there is no strong resistance before 510. If volume remains strong. I would expect the index to rally to 510. See the third chart for the double resistance at this level. In the long term context, the index could be making a double bottom with neckline at 510. It has been six years since the drop of 1997. The build-up of volume in recent weeks is consistent with the formation of a big double bottom pattern. This is also outlined in the third chart. Breakout on strong volume from 510 would give the target of 850, or thereabouts. If volume continues to build, as it has been over the last few weeks, such that we had daily turnover in the region of 30 billion baht or more, a rally to 850 would  be quite a realistic expectation.

16th June: Resistance at the current level and a day reversal on Friday dampen hopes for this week. Medium outlook is still good. But there could be a hiccup or two in the short term. On the other hand, the banking sector could be about to take off.
Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: 1. unsymmetrical reverse head and shoulders (sloping up neckline) points to 440-done
                         2. another unsymmetrical reverse head and shoulders (sloping down neckline) points to 465

Long term: none

Currency:  none
 

9th June: A disproportion pattern with good volume points to 440. But there is strong resistance to be expected at the previous recent high of 430. The Finance Sector appears to have bottomed persuasively.
Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: unsymmetrical reverse head and shoulders points to 440

Long term: none

Currency:  none

2nd June: Many encouraging signs: high volume for the index; breakout from resistance in the property sector and improved volume in the finance sector. The medium term looks good. The major obstacle will be resistance at the previous recent high: around 430. There will also be resistance at up until around 445.
Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: unsymmetrical reverse head and shoulders points to 440

Long term: none

Currency:  none

26th May: Some encouraging signals give hope that the index could rally further and, at least, retest the recent high at 430. Volume would need to pick up considerably on such a rally if we were to expect the rally to break the resistance at 430.

19th May: The index is trapped under resistance at the current level. A small top is in danger of forming, but, given the strong resistance below, it could just as easily be a tease. The rest of the region is quite bullish. We should assume that Thailand is part of that trend while there is ambiguity. Many stocks in Banking and Property show topping danger. More time needed to get a clear picture.

12th May: The index is in danger of topping. A close above 390 would reduce the danger.

28th April: The most encouraging indicator for the SET is the rising support in yellow shown in the first and second charts. The index has touched and turned on that support three times, suggesting that the index is in a rising trend. If that support fails, we should consider a topping scenario, as shown in the first chart. The communications sector still looks very strong. Banking could go either way: medium term looks good, but the long term picture for the banking sector still requires much more volume. Same for Finance.

18th April: The index has broken a bottom pointing to 430 - 440. But volume is not sufficient to persuade. The banking sector is still under resistance and the communications sector is approaching resistance. The most impressive indicator is the fact that the index and many sector indices have turned on long term support. It could take a week or two before we are to see whether anything comes of this. More volume would be the key.

29th March: The index looks a bit feeble. But the banking and communications sectors look reasonably promising. The index would no doubt rally if these sectors do.
Current Prediction

Short term:
1. rising wedge points to previous low of 324 - questionable
2. falling wedge points to recent high of 382 - not yet confirmed

24th March: The index still has a top danger. If we see a rally above 370 this week, the top danger will be reduced. But there is still no persuasive bullish scenario, except in the communications sector.
Current Prediction

Short term:
1. rising wedge points to previous low of 324 - questionable
2. falling wedge points to recent high of 382 - not yet confirmed

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency:  short term double bottom points to 41.7

17th March: The short term target of 345 is as good as done. We now have a support at the current level and a large topping scenario which could see a plunge to 315.
Current Prediction

Short term:
1. rising wedge points to previous low of 324
2. head and shoulders top points to 345 - "near enough" good as done

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency:  short term double bottom points to 41.7
10th March: Target of 345 is confirmed. Beyond that, we only have support and scenarios to look at. See the yellow support in the second chart. It is slightly above the target of 345. If that support fails, the index is in danger of retesting long term support at around 290. BBL could give a surprise.
Current Prediction

Short term:
1. rising wedge points to previous low of 324
2. head and shoulders top points to 345

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency:  short term double bottom points to 41.7
3rd March: The index had, as of last Friday's close, a valid top pointing to 324. A close at 367 would cancel it. (As of Monday's close, the top is cancelled. But the wedge is still bearish.)
Current Prediction

Short term:
1. rising wedge points to previous low of 324
2. head and shoulders top points to 345

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency:  short term double bottom points to 41.7

24th  February: The index has failed a bottom pointing to 415. A top pointing to 345 has a good chance. Support could be anywhere between now and 300.
Current Prediction

Short term:
1. reverse head and shoulders points to 415 - cancelled
2. rising wedge points to previous low of 324
3. head and shoulders top points to 345

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency:  short term double bottom points to 41.7

10th  February: The SET, the fund and the SET banking and communications sectors all look rather bullish. Finance and property do not look so promising. Volume for the banking sector is good. But volume for the whole market is not picking up enough to inspire great confidence.
Current Prediction

Short term: reverse head and shoulders points to 415

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency:  short term double bottom points to 41.7

3rd February: The index is still bullish provided it remains above 362 and provided volume is strong.
Current Prediction

Short term: reverse head and shoulders points to 415

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency:  short term double bottom points to 41.7

27th January: The index is ambiguous. The Banking Sector looks bullish. But of the banking stocks that I follow, only BBL has persuasive volume. Some finance stocks are dangerous, still making topping patterns. Communications stocks show no sign of bottoming yet.
Current Prediction

Short term:
1. rising wedge points to previous low at around 324 - cancelled
2. reverse head and shoulders points to 415

Medium term: head and shoulders top pointing to 297 (log) and arithmetic 285 - cancelled

Long term: none

Currency:  none

13th January: The index has a nice bottom scenario. Breakout would be at around 367. But volume shows no sign of being sufficient. Top pointing to 297 is still valid, although running out of time. Good support for the banking sector at 140.
Current Prediction

Short term: rising wedge points to previous low at around 324

Medium term: head and shoulders top pointing to 297 (log) and arithmetic 285 - valid again

Long term: none

Currency:  none 

2002
23rd December: The outlook is more likely bearish, but there are some good supports at the current level. A rally to 360 would be encouraging if volume picked up.
Current Prediction

Short term: rising wedge points to previous low at around 324

Medium term: head and shoulders top pointing to 297 (log) and arithmetic 285 - valid again

Long term: none

Currency:  none

16th December: The short term bottom pointing to 395 has failed. The top pointing to 297 is now worth considering again. Next support is at around 337. If that support fails, 297 would be more likely.
Current Prediction

Short term: rising wedge points to previous low at around 324

Medium term: 1. reverse head and shoulders pointing to 398 - cancelled
                         2. head and shoulders top pointing to 297 (log) and arithmetic 285 - valid again

9th December: The index dithered around resistance at around 367. Volume was rather meagre last week. Thus we have very little indication of the strength of the market. A breakout from the resistance at 367 on strong volume of 12 billion baht or greater would give a high probability of a rally to the 400 region. On the other hand, the banking sector is still looking weak, and is subject to a double top pointing to 132.
Current Prediction

Short term:
1. falling wedge points to 420, but is unreliable
2. reverse head and shoulders pointing to 298 - confirm if index closes above  "leg" resistance at around 367.

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency:  none

2nd December: Good volume last week and a rally above the neckline of our top at 360 give the index a chance of confirming a bull trend.
Current Prediction

Short term:
1. falling wedge points to 420, but is unreliable
2. reverse head and shoulders pointing to 298 - confirm if index closes above  "leg" resistance at around 366.

Medium term: head and shoulders points to 297 (log) and 285 (arithmetic) - cancelled

Long term: none

Currency:  none

18th November: The market is still in the grip of uncertainty. There is no clear indication of a bottom to the bearish trend that began in June, although there are a few promising scenarios, the best of which would see a fall back to 330. Until we get a convincing bottom, or a close at somewhere around 366, the bearish of target of 297 stands.

Four scenarios for the SET:
1. a little bottom forming at the current level, confirmed by breakout at around 363. Volume should be 15 billion baht on breakout or better. This would be a weak bottom scenario. It could easily fail.
2. a rally to 363 followed by a week or two of volatility on strong volume, followed by a breakout to 363 on 17 billion baht turnover or greater. This would be a more reliable scenario, offering greater confidence in a medium term rally.
3. A fall to 330 followed by a rally on strong volume with breakout at 17 billion baht or better in mid December. This would be the best case scenario, confirming a long term rising trend (shown below in yellow).
4. A fall through 323, the previous recent low, would confirm the target of 297. As of last Friday, this is still the greater probability.

Sectors: The banking, finance, property and communications sectors are all on possible long term supports. Thus we could be at or very close to a long term bottom. With the exception of the property sector and perhaps the finance sector, there is no indication of a bottom for the medium term bearish trend that began in June. The property sector may be about to start a short term rally. Volume is persuasive. If it picks up, the sector has a chance of breaking out of the previous high of 104.
Current Prediction

Short term:  falling wedge points to 420, but is unreliable

Medium term: head and shoulders points to 297 (log) and 285 (arithmetic). This is the most likely outcome while the index remains below 360.

Long term: none

Currency:  none

11th November: Two scenarios: first, the index falls to around 340 and rallies on turnover of 12 billion baht or more for a few days and breaks 360 on volume of 16 billion baht or more. This would suggest a bottom. On the other hand, a close at 340 (a bit lower to avoid ambiguity) would confirm the top pointing to 297. The latter scenario is the more likely one, especially when viewed in the context of the long term charts.
Current Prediction

Short term:  falling wedge points to 420, but is unreliable

Medium term: head and shoulders points to 297 (log) and 285 (arithmetic). This is the most likely outcome while the index remains below 360.

2nd November: There is still a chance of a bottom at the current level. But a bearish week followed by a rally on strong volume would give more evidence. Otherwise, the medium term prediction, below, still stands.
Current Prediction

Short term:  1. double bottom points to 362
                     2. falling wedge points to 420

Medium term: head and shoulders points to 297 (log) and 285 (arithmetic)

Long term: none

Currency:  none

28th October: The index is still subject to a bearish target of 297, despite the short term double bottom. Best hope for a bottom at the current level would be a double bottom in the banking sector, which has touched good long term support. On the other hand, there are some long term scenarios for the Index which show a considerable downside. None of the sectors looks persuasive, with the possible exception of Agribusiness, which appears to have bottomed on long term support.
Current Prediction

Short term:  1. double bottom points to 362
                     2. falling wedge points to 420

Medium term: head and shoulders points to 297 (log) and 285 (arithmetic)

Long term: none

Currency:  none

12th October: The index rallied only to the neckline of the head and shoulders top pointing to 297. Only a rally above 360 would cancel the top.

Major sector indices, on the other hand, give more encouragement. Finance and Property have broken out of a wedges, often the first sign of a reversal. Banking has turned on good long term support.

A few stocks have cancelled bearish tops (SCB-F, TFB, NFS). But other tops are still valid: most importantly, BBL and some of the property sector tops, such as QH and ITD. Many finance stocks are subject to bearish tops. The balance favours the bears.

There is thus a chance that the index is bottoming at the current level. But we would need more evidence to be persuaded. Until such evidence arrives, 297 is the greater probability.
Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: head and shoulders points to 297 (log) and 285 (arithmetic)

Long term: none

Currency:  none

12th October: The target of 297 is valid. But the banking sector will find long term support very soon, at around 140 and could find a bottom on that support. Since the banking sector is the largest sector in the index, a banking sector bottom would likely interrupt the fall of the index to 297. But the other possibility is that the strong banking sector support at 140 fails. In that case, support could be as low as 110.

The finance sector, on the other hand, is likely to fall to at least 800.

Many stocks confirm that the index is likely to fall further: BBL, SCB, BAY, AST, CNS, ITD and QH are just a few stocks that have clear tops with outstanding lower targets.
Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: head and shoulders points to 297 (log) and 285 (arithmetic)

Long term: none

Currency:  none

7th October: The index rallied last week on falling volume, suggesting a mere pause in the current medium term bear trend. I expect the index to fall to the 290 level at least. There is strong support at that level. If the index falls below that level, we can look to a bottom as low as 260 followed by a year of bottoming. That could take a while to confirm. A short term rally in the communications sector could offer a little amusement.
Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: head and shoulders points to 297 (log) and 285 (arithmetic)

Long term: none

Currency:  none

30th September: A head and shoulders top points to just under 300. There is a good support in the way. But it is likely to break, as the finance and banking sectors will most likely fall further. A long term scenario suggests that next year could be lacklustre, as was 2001.
Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: head and shoulders points to 297(log) and 285 (arithmetic)

Long term: none

Currency:  none

23rd September: The SET index and the finance sector index are still sitting on good supports. These supports must break before we can confirm a medium term bearish trend. The SET needs to fall to 345 (335 would give greater probability of a top) and the finance sector needs to fall to 1,050 to confirm the top. Banking is more ambiguous. It has broken a double top, but the top has a defect. BBL, on the other hand, has made a clear top, and probably indicates the fortunes of the whole market: bearish for the next month or two or three. Agribusiness is the exception, which is now sitting on good support and could soon give a bottoming signal.
Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: head and shoulders points to 297.35 (log) and 285 (arithmetic) - not yet confirmed

Long term: none

Currency:  short term double top points to around 43

16th September: The index looks bearish. Many topping patterns are forming with the index, sector charts and individual stocks. There is no clear confirmation. But BBL looks rather weak, suggesting that the banking sector, and probably the whole index, have further to fall.
Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: head and shoulders points to 297.35 (log) and 285 (arithmetic) - not yet confirmed

Long term: none

Currency:  short term double top points to around 43
9th September: The situation is still ambiguous. A close at 345 would tip the balance more towards bear than continuation of bull. But the steep wedge in the first chart would maintain ambiguity unless there were a very steep fall. The scenario in blue in the second chart would be the more likely scenario if the index falls below 330. Agribusiness could be the sector that bucks the trend, if it manages to hold on long term support at 48.5.

Despite the index and sector indices being ambiguous, many stocks have made unambiguous tops. BBL is the most important. Property stocks such as BLAND, ITD and QH have also made persuasive tops. Chances are greater, therefore, that the index is in a medium term bear trend.

2nd September: The formation of some nasty tops threatens to take the index back to 280, or somewhere thereabouts. The critical level is somewhere around 355. Keep an eye on BBL falling below 50. This would be another good indicator of a continuation of the medium term bearish trend.

26th August: The index could go either way: back to 300 for the next year, or rally to 500. Another week or two should give us a better idea.

19th August: Could be a short term rally if the index were to break above 376 or 377 on strong volume. But the medium term is still not encouraging.

12th August: Good long term support at the current level. If the index falls much further, the next support would be at around 330 - 345. Below that, 285. The upside would be a breakout from a wedge. If that happened on a strong surge of volume, we could see the current rally continue. The weakness in the banking sector and the current regional bearishness mitigate against such a rosy outlook.
Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency:  none

22nd July: Nothing much going on with the index. The Banking Sector is worth watching. It broke a support last week and could take a plunge.
Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom points to 440 - now of little predictive value

Currency:  none

15th July: The index is holding up nicely, considering the weakness elsewhere in the region. Otherwise, nothing much to report. The market is blissfully quiet. Communications stocks are sitting on good support and could perk up this week. Other stocks, such as KK, Egcomp and Tasco, show little topping patterns, which could indicate impending weakness in the market.

5th July: No significant change from last week. The Banking Sector is still the weakest link (due primarily to BBL). If it falls much lower, chances for the index are not good.
Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom points to 440 - now of little predictive value

Currency:  none

1st July: The target of 440 is now of little use. The index got too close to the target and has now fallen too close to the neckline of the pattern. We should dismiss the prediction. On the other hand, a similar pattern on the fund chart still looks promising. And there is no clear top to suggest that the market has reversed its bull trend. Volume is still encouraging. And there is good support as far as 360. If the index falls below 360, we shall have to reconsider the quality of the bull trend.

On the other hand, the Banking Sector index chart paints a dismal picture. Volume is clearly inadequate to make a double bottom. The greater probability is that the sector will make a triple bottom, retesting support 130. See the chart below. Confirmation of the double top, with neckline at around 170, would be the signal that the sector will take another year or so to bottom. Much, if not all, of this woe is due to BBL, which has been rising for more than a year on decreasing volume. This is a house of cards, ready to fall with a slight breeze. On the other hand, banking stocks such as BAY, SCB and TFB are still looking promising. But BBL is the heavy weight that will make or break the sector, and perhaps the market.

On the other hand, many stocks are still looking bullish. I have shown a few on the next page. Finance stocks still have a chance. Communications stocks, on the other hand, look pretty dismal. A scenario for SHIN sees the stock falling back to previous lows at around 9.5, and taking a year to bottom.

So how many hands do I have? The bottom line is that our bullish scenario has always had a flaw: the banking sector. That flaw looks more dangerous than ever. It is highly conceivable, therefore, that this year might not be the "BIG YEAR" for the SET. We might have to wait for BBL and SHIN to do another orbit, back to their recent lows, before volume is sufficient to buoy the whole market. Even in that case, there would still be many stocks that do well. But we should wait for the support at 360 to break and, perhaps to be sure, 350, before despairing the end of the bull run.
Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom points to 440 - now of little predictive value

Currency:  none

24th June: The index can fall to as low as 390 without putting doubt on our target of 440. But the Banking and Finance Sectors are sitting on critical supports, the failure of which would cast immediate doubt on our target. If the index falls below 390, the next good support would be at around 375, then 355.

There is no cause to abandon bullish hope after a single week of falls, but it is worth considering the long term prospect of a fall back to 300. If that were to happen, the Banking Sector would be the principal cause for failure. Throughout the current rally, the Banking Sector has been a cause for concern due to low volume (or turnover, if you prefer). It is therefore no surprise to see the sector fail at the 216 level, the same level where the sector peaked on 26th January last year but on volume ten times that of the present. It is therefore difficult to see the sector close above the 216 level without more volume, or a return to lower levels.
Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom points to 440

Currency:  none

10th June: The index has encountered resistance at 420. We could see a bit of hesitation at this level. But high volume last week increases the probability that we will soon see 440. Then what? After that we have no target. We would therefore look to resistances and volume. If volume remains good, we can expect the index to climb higher to successive resistances.

The major resistances that I can see are at 465 and 510. On the long term weekly charts, the resistance is at 600. If the index stays in bull mode, we might see that level at the end of this year or in the middle of next year. However, the banking sector, which accounts for approximately one third of the market's capitalization, is still a cause for concern. It shows no sign of having made a sustainable bottom. Compare property, building, finance and energy, which all have gradually increasing volume over the last year or two. (Finance is a bit of an exception but volume is nonetheless good.) By contrast, the banking sector has not even approached, let alone surpassed, the volume of the rally in January 2001. This is a big weakness in the market and gives the potential for a sharp fall at any time after 440.
Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: symmetrical triangle pointing to 432

Long term: double bottom points to 440

Currency:  none
3rd June: The index is moving to target at 440. Next resistance is at around 420. Volume of 23 billion baht last Wednesday was the largest day's volume since January last year. Such good volume should help the index achieve target.
Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: symmetrical triangle pointing to 432

Long term: double bottom points to 440

Currency:  long term double top pointing to 47-cancelled

27th May: The target of 440 is still the greater probability, assisted by last weeks rally. Banking is still a worry. Volume is pitiful for the sector. Currency has rallied such that we can cancel the top pointing to 47.
Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom points to 440

Currency:  long term double top pointing to 47-questionable

13th May: All sectors looking bullish except Banking and Communications, the two biggest sectors in the market. Nonetheless, the greater probability is that the index will rally to 440 in the next month or two, provided we don't see a fall below 350. The weakness of the Banking sector leaves open the possibility of such a failure. Many individual stock charts show signs of weakness: topping patterns and falling volume.
Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom points to 440

Currency:  long term double top pointing to 47, but the currency is strengthening in the short term.

6th May: Last week saw the index move in a very narrow range. A close at 380 would suggest a turn on a triangle support (see first chart). But we need a close of 392, or higher, on strong volume - 15 billion baht would be nice - in order to feel confident that the index was back on an ascending path. Weak volume in the banking sector is still a worry. I don't see the index rallying far without a significant boost to the volume in the banking sector.
Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom points to 440

Currency:  long term double top pointing to 47, but the currency is strengthening in the short term.

28th April: The index is teasing us again with a retest of channel support on the two year chart. Probability still favours 440, notwithstanding the weakness of the banking and communications sectors. However failure would have to be conceded if the index fell below 345.
Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom points to 440

Currency:  long term double top pointing to 47, but the currency is strengthening in the short term.

21st April: The index and the fund chart are both bullish, after recovering last week from the short term bearish trend of the week before. A close at 395 or higher would be a comfort. All sectors look good except the two big ones: banking and communications. Volume in both sectors is weak.
Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom points to 440

Currency:  long term double top pointing to 47, but the currency is strengthening in the short term.

8th April: The index still looks likely to reach target of 440 within a few months. But the short term could see a fall to 350 or lower. A fall below 345 would cancel the prediction. Banking is still looking weak. Now Communications is starting to cause concern.
Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom points to 440

Currency:  long term double top pointing to 47, but the currency is strengthening in the short term.

31st March: The market fell a few points last week, which would not be anything to worry about, but for the fact that the banking sector looks so weak. Volume for the whole market during the current rally has been excellent. Average volume has clearly exceeded that of the rally of early last year. That is a very encouraging signal. The breakout from the triple bottom on such high volume gives a good chance of 440. But the banking sector has feeble volume and has just topped. We could therefore see the index fall back to 345 if the current channel support fails and, for now, the worst case would be 330.
Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom points to 440

Currency:  long term double top pointing to 47, but the currency is strengthening in the short term.

9th March: The index looks good. 50 day average volume is now much higher than that of the rally of January 2001, despite the fact that volume peaked higher on some days last year than we have seen in the current rally. This fact suggests that 440 has a good chance. However, volume for Banking, Finance and Communications is unimpressive. That casts a doubt over the extent of the current rally.
Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom points to 440

Currency:  long term double top pointing to 47, but the currency is strengthening in the short term

2nd March: The index has turned on the neckline of the bottom pointing to 440, giving further evidence that that target will be reached. The only cloud is the volume in the Banking Sector. Volume is still too low in that sector to inspire confidence.
Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom points to 450 - now more likely due to pullback and turn

Currency:  long term double top pointing to 47, but the currency is strengthening in the short term.

25th February: The index is now "pulling back to the neckline" of our double bottom. If the index turns on the neckline and continues to rally on good volume, we will have confirmation of our target of 440. (If the neckline fails, we will have to cancel the target.)

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: 1.) double bottom (sloping down neckline) points to 440 - questionable due to low volume breakout.
                    2.) double bottom (sloping up neckline) points to 455 - also questionable due to low volume breakout.

Currency:  long term double top pointing to 47, but the currency is strengthening in the short term.

18th February: Good average volume and a breakout from a double bottom give a fairly good chance that the index will see 440 and then, volume being still strong, 525. The double bottom has a defect: volume on breakout was not persuasive. But perhaps the fact that average volume is strong will remedy that defect.

If we see a failure, it would be likely due to the banking sector, which has not yet registered impressive volume in recent months.
Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: 1.) double bottom (sloping down neckline) points to 440 - questionable due to low volume breakout.
                    2.) double bottom (sloping up neckline) points to 455 - also questionable due to low volume breakout.

Currency:  long term double top pointing to 47, but the currency is strengthening in the short term.

11th February: The index has broken resistance at 347. But volume is too weak to give a valid target of 440. Perhaps we will see more volume after the Chinese New Year holiday. If so, we can expect a rally to 375, and then, if we have no top, 440.
Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom points to 440 - questionable due to low volume breakout.

Currency:  long term double top pointing to 47, but the currency is strengthening in the short term.

2nd February: The index has touched and turned on the resistance at around 342. Now we must wait and see whether the index will break the resistance and give us a target above 430, or fall below 325 and end the current rally.
Current Prediction

Short term: reverse head and shoulders points to 343  - done 31st January.

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency:  long term double top pointing to 47, but the currency is strengthening in the short term.

28th January: The index is approaching resistance between 343 and 346. If the index breaks these resistances on volume exceeding previous recent volume, ie, around 30 billion baht per day, we will have a valid target of around 440.
Current Prediction

Short term: reverse head and shoulders points to 343

Medium term: symmetrical triangle points to 218 - now cancelled.

Long term: none

Currency:  long term double top pointing to 47, but the currency is strengthening in the short term.

21st January: Some good signals, but the Banking Sector is a worry. It could take the index down in the short term.
Current Prediction

Short term: reverse head and shoulders points to 345 - now cancelled.

Medium term: symmetrical triangle points to 218 - now questionable.

Long term: none

Currency:  long term double top pointing to 47, but the currency is strengthening in the short term.

6th January: Many encouraging signals: good recent volume, a short term pattern pointing persuasively to 345 (although strong resistance might limit the gains to 340), confirmation by the fund chart and breakout from long term resistance. But we will need to see more volume in the banking and communications sectors if we are to see a sustainable rally. Resistance at 320 and around 340 are important hurdles.
Current Prediction

Short term: 1. double bottom points to 318-done
                    2. reverse head and shoulders points to 345

Medium term: symmetrical triangle points to 218

Long term: none

Currency:  long term double top pointing to 47, but the currency is strengthening in the short term.

2001

24th  December: Not much change to the index. We are still waiting for 318 and for resistance to break at around 319. Property is looking good. And excellent volume for many individual stocks in Finance and Property sectors suggest a long term reversal for these stocks, and perhaps the index, is taking place.
Current Prediction

Short term: double bottom points to 318

Medium term: symmetrical triangle points to 218

Long term: none

Currency:  long term double top pointing to 47

10th December: Good reversal prospects. But the target of 220 is still valid and will be until the index breaks 320. As always, strong volume would indicate the durability of the current rally. We had a good day of volume last Thursday. But that was due to a new listing. Volume otherwise has only been fair. This needs to pick up in the next week or two, otherwise we are in danger of seeing a fizzle. On the other hand, December is usually a low volume month. Real action might not take place until next year.

Long term charts show the possibility that the index and the banking and finance sectors, have all turned on good long term supports.
Current Prediction

Short term: double bottom points to 318

Medium term: symmetrical triangle points to 218

Long term: none

Currency:  long term double top pointing to 47

24th November: The index has made clear and persuasive short term reversals in all of the major sectors. The issue now is whether the index will rally above the double resistance at around 315 to 320. A close at, say, 325, on good volume, would remove the danger of 218.
Current Prediction

Short term: double bottom points to 314

Medium term: symmetrical triangle point to 218

Long term: none

Currency:  long term double top pointing to 47

19th November: The index has made a short term bottom which could develop into a longer term bottom by mid-December if volume increases. On the other hand, the index is still subject to the valid target of 220. The Communications sector is particularly perilous. Another sharp fall could trigger a fall to 18, around the level of 1998. Thus while there are encouraging signs, the market is not out of danger.
Current Prediction

Short term: double bottom points to 280

Medium term: symmetrical triangle point to 218

Long term: none

Currency:  long term double top pointing to 47

12th November: The medium term chart shows support. There is a possible support on the long term chart. But the valid prediction seems the more likely outcome, at this stage. There is weekly support at 250. That might intervene. But it is not a strong support. Stocks also look weak. Unless something miraculous happens in the next week or two, 218 should be considered a real possibility.

On the other hand, take a look at the long term scenarios linked below. These show a possible bottom at the current level and a downside of 160.
Current Prediction

Short term: double top points to 246 - confirmed if the support at 263 breaks

Medium term: symmetrical triangle point to 218

Long term: none

Currency:  long term double top pointing to 47

22nd October: The market is likely to be weak this week, with the banking sector leading the way back to previous supports. We should then see whether the market will bottom, or break important supports.
Current Prediction

Short term: double top points to 246 - confirmed if the support at 268-270 breaks

Medium term: symmetrical triangle point to 218

Long term: none

Currency:  long term double top pointing to 47

15th October: The only encouragement comes from the long term daily and weekly supports. If these fail, the index is likely to take a further dive.
Current Prediction

Short term: double top points to 246 - confirmed if the support at 268-270 breaks

Medium term: symmetrical triangle point to 218

Long term: none

Currency:  long term double top pointing to 47

8th October: The index turned on the important long term support at 270. That is a good sign. But the pattern that accompanied the turn is not persuasive. The index is therefore still subject to the triangle pointing to 218.
Current Prediction

Short term: double top points to 246 - confirmed if the support at 268-270 breaks

Medium term: symmetrical triangle point to 218

Long term: none

Currency:  long term double top pointing to 47

1st October: The index is sitting on a good long term support that indicates a rising trend since the low of 200 in October 1998. Provided this support holds, the rising trend that started in 1998 will remain in tact. The weekly chart has an analogous support.

But there is a valid triangle pointing to 220 on the medium term chart. We must therefore look to the long term supports. If they break, we can attribute high probability to the triangle.
Current Prediction

Short term: double top points to 246

Medium term: symmetrical triangle point to 218

Long term: none

 
Currency:  long term double top pointing to 47

17th September: A triangle points to 218. The only hope is that long term supports close to the current level for the SET, and the banking sector, will consolidate. The weekly chart is still in a rising trend. But we should be prepared for the possibility that the recent months of bullishness, which have gone against the global trend, will soon end. Another week or two should make the picture clearer. The next good support is at 270.
Current Prediction

Short term: reverse head and shoulders points to 353 - cancelled

Medium term: symmetrical triangle point to 218

Long term: none

Currency:  long term double top pointing to 47

10th September:  Last week the index consolidated under a strong resistance. Still a fairly good chance that the index will reach target of 353. But a fall back to 325  might delay, or even cancel the prediction.
Current Prediction

Short term: reverse head and shoulders points to 353.

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency: 1. long term double top pointing to 47
                  2. medium term double bottom pointing to 44.20- done

27th August: The market rallied last Friday with volume sufficient to give a hope of a sustainable medium term rally. We now have a valid short term pattern pointing to 353. But a long term resistance and a medium term one are operating at the current level. We need to see the index close up a few more points to pass this obstacle. The upside would be a rally that takes the index above 400. But we need to see much more volume - approaching daily turnover of 30 billion - before we can be confident of such a target.

Of course it's too early to tell whether this will happen. What we want to see this week is sustained high volume. Never mind if the index doesn't gain points. If we get volume consistently above 10 billion baht per day, and at least one day with volume above last Friday's 13 billion baht, prospects are good. If we don't see sustained high volume, the we could see the index rally to around 340 followed by a failure.

Foreign investment in the market has, so far, been modest. But the strength of the baht last Friday, against the regional trend, gives hope that some money could soon flow in. As for the proposed support fund, I cannot imagine that this is the only force driving the market. If it is, the rally will be short-lived.

In any case, the property sector is undergoing a genuine rally, albeit domestic, with an excellent reversal pattern. I expect that sector to reach the mid 50's (a ten to twenty percent upside), at least, in the short term.
Current Prediction

Short term: reverse head and shoulders points to 353.

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency: 1. long term double top pointing to 47
                  2. medium term double bottom pointing to 44.20

20th August: Banking and Finance sectors still show no signs of reversing. But other sectors are looking good. Property, in particular has made a very good reversal pattern attended by excellent volume. Volume in the Agriculture sector is also still looking healthy. But the overall index does not yet have sufficient volume to buck the regional bearish trend.

Currency is looking bullish. But this could simply be due to the weakening of the dollar against all currencies.
Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: none

Currency: 1. long term double top pointing to 47
                  2. medium term double bottom pointing to 44.20

13th August: A week of nothing much, which tells us very little. The Banking sector is the most significant indicator at present. It could take another week or two before we get any direction from this sector. The important resistance this week is around 335. If this level breaks, we could expect no more than 350, unless, of course, some surprise bolt of volume erupts.

6th August: The top pointing to 290 is cancelled. There is a chance of a rebound to the 330 region. But volume over the last few months is too weak to suggest a breakout above 330. At best we can hope for some range trading below the 330 resistance with volume building significantly.

The other side of the coin is that last Friday's rally could have been just a flash in the pan, fizzling after a day or two. But the breakout from the banking sector, last Friday, gives cause for hope. This week we will be looking for solid volume: above 10 billion baht per day. If that happens, there is a chance for a short term rally.
Current Prediction

Short term: short term top points to 290

30th July: A valid short term top points to 290. Supports at this level on the daily and weekly charts will be the next test. The banking sector is looking particularly dangerous. It is sitting on a good long term support. If that support fails, we could see banks falling to new lows. Smaller sectors, such as Property, are looking quite good. But one wonders how buoyant these small sectors can be while the major sectors are sinking.
Current Prediction

Short term: short term top points to 290

23rd July: Next good support is at around 295. If the index falls below this level, we should be looking at 280, which would be a double top neckline and a long term support. The banking sector is now on a very good long term support. We should wait to see whether a bottom forms on this support or whether the support breaks, before considering the fate of the index.

16th July: The fate of the index now rests with the banking sector, which is testing long term support. If the support fails, a new low for the index, below 200 is conceivable. Small sectors are still looking good.

9th July: The index is creeping up a medium term support with unimpressive volume. There's a chance we could see 340, even 348. But volume is too low to expect anything higher. Some triangle scenarios suggest that long term support could hold at around 270 - 280. And perhaps next year will see more upside. Meanwhile, there are some sectors with bullish activity.

18th June: The SET has a fair chance of rallying to 340. At this level, we will either see a breakout or a failure. Volume is currently inadequate for a persuasive breakout. We need to see volume exceed that of January's rally in order to be confident of a breakout from 340. If this were to happen, we would need to see a sudden surge of activity in the Banking and Finance sectors. Most of the recent action has been in the smaller capitalized sectors. Volume for Banking and Finance has been miserable. Unless this changes, a rally to 340, on low volume, would most likely indicate a fall back to long term support, somewhere around 280.

However, even if the SET index falls back to long term support, there is still persuasive bullish action in some of the small sectors. Agriculture, Food, Building and Electrical Components all have excellent volume and good patterns. Their fortune is not affected by the lacklustre performance of the blue chips.

4th June: The index is slowly building volume. But the small sectors are driving the market. Sectors such as Agribusiness and Food are bullish. But Banking and Finance are looking weak. It is unlikely that the SET is going to rally without the financials.

28th May: The index, as dominated by banking, finance and communications sectors, does not look healthy. But some of the minor sectors look positive. These include energy, electrical products, agriculture, commerce and food and beverages. The fund is also giving a short term bullish signal.

Regrettably no Thai stocks page this week. Blame it on the SET, and their new website, which does not allow us efficiently to collect high and low stock data. Instead, we present a few sector indices, which, fortuitously, are interesting this week. Hope to get stocks back once we solve the data problem.

If you haven't e-mailed the SET to complain about their new site, please do so. There's plenty of space on their "common stocks" page for high and low data. I would hope that the desire to reduce the efficiency of their service isn't deliberate.  InvestorLine@set.or.th

21st May: Volume is still lacking. But there are some encouraging signs with individual stocks, such as Banpu and IEC showing reversals with good volume.

14th May: Volume for the index rose successively every day last week. That was a good sign. But volume was still too weak to break the resistance at around 321. Thus the fall on Friday afternoon was not surprising. With luck, the index will not fall much below 305 and volume will build. Volume has been falling since January. Some spectacular surges of volume in some stocks last week could portend a reversal of the volume trend. KTB, TA, NFS are examples of stocks with good volume last week in each of the three major sectors.

7th May: "When volume is lacking, everything is lacking". The market has been rallying for the past two weeks on dwindling volume. Not a healthy sign. Unless there is a burst of volume from out of the blue, we could easily see the market slip back to the recent low, or support at around 280.

30th April: With volume drying up, chances of a solid rally in the near term are slim. Only a close at 307 on strong volume of 15 billion baht or more would turn the short term balance in favour of the bull. Weak volumes suggest that the larger sectors will fall further, or, at best, move along the long term supports which are now present for most sectors and stocks.

23rd April: Some encouraging signs. But more is needed to persuade us that the index has made a medium term bottom. In particular, we should see
1. a close for the SET above 305 on volume exceeding 15 billion baht, turnover; and
2. BBL closing at 43, or higher, on volume exceeding 21 million shares per day for at least two days.
If these criteria are met, chances of a medium term bottom would be high. No doubt world market factors will have some influence. If they are not met, a false rally with a fizzle is the more likely outcome.

9th April: The index has a small way to go to reach long term support at around 260. But there are signs of bottoming in the form of the falling wedge. This pattern is often the first sign of a reversal. Although it can mislead and is better confirmed by another pattern. Banking sector still looks reasonably robust. It could make a surprise rebound. Finance, on the other hand, doesn't show any sign of recovering.

The weekly chart has good support at 265. Keep an eye out for this level, one Friday.

Current Prediction

Short term: a double top points to 270. Cancelled if the index rallies above 310 or if it fails to reach target before 18th
April.

2nd April: The market looks weaker by the day. There is still a glimmer of hope that the rally of January could rekindle. But it is a small hope and although there are some positive things going on in the market, the prevailing short term trend in Banking and Finance is bearish.

My concern now is whether the market will find support at 260 or go back to 240, or lower. I am expecting a long winter as US and European markets shed more value. In that case, the best scenario would be for the Thai bear market to hibernate and wait it out.

Short term: a double top points to 270. Cancelled if the index rallies above 310 or if it fails to reach target before 18th
April.

19th March: The SET index is in danger of returning to its previous recent low at around 260. Finance and property sectors suggest a high probability of this fall. If Communications falls below 42, in the next few months, we could even see the index go to 20. Again, I am looking to BBL. If this stock closes at 35, it would be a powerful indicator of impending doom.

Current Prediction

Short term: a double top points to 270. Cancelled if the index rallies above 310.

12th March: Now or later? That is the question! Will the SET rally now, despite all of the bearishness in every major world market? Or will the market slip back to long term supports and hibernate for the rest of the year? This is the theme of this week's update: "reversal now" the rally continues to next base: 345 on strong volume, then to 450 by mid-year; or, "reversal later", the index falls back to 260 and ambles aimlessly along the long term support for much of this year, causing us all to fall asleep.

For an answer to this question, I have been looking at the behaviour of BBL, the stock that led us into the recent rally, in December. Might this be the leading indicator of a failure? I appreciate that my assumption that BBL would lead us out of the rally is an induction, and not based on logic. But that is not the only problem. BBL made a clear head and shoulders top last week. It then cancelled the top. Most confusing! Now we would have to wait for a close at 35, or lower, before reinstating the prediction. On the other hand, we could see the stock rally this week on good volume. If that happens, the "reversal now" scenario would have a good chance.

You will note that we have no valid predictions for the index or any of the sectors. Neither up, nor down. We only have a recent surge of huge volume to guide us. Sadly, we now have an excellent case of a failure despite huge volume. Hana has dropped sharply last week, despite having huge volume in January. But there is an important distinction: Hana was always subject to a big double top (resembling that of the Nasdaq). I had hoped that the huge volume would interrupt the bearish prediction. It now appears that that hope was unfounded. The index, on the other hand, is not subject to any prevailing bearish patterns. On the contrary, symmetry makes for a reversal. High volume fits well with a reversal scenario. The index is thus in a much better position than that of Hana. But the message is still clear: High volume alone doesn't make for a reversal. We need the pattern and the breakout too.

One other thing, if we get the reversal later scenario, the sector likely to fall the most is communications. Check out the stocks on the next page for an explanation.

Short term: a double top points to 270. Cancelled if the index rallies above 310.

5th March: A short term double top points back to 270. But short term indicators have been cancelled two in a row in recent weeks. I would therefore suggest standing back from the short term term, and look at the medium and long term scenarios. These still look encouraging. Good symmetrical patterns are supported by huge volume, which is the sign of a reversal. But until the reversal breaks out, we are left in a state of suspense. We need to see 340 break on high volume before we can be confident of a long term reversal. On the other hand, a fall below 290 could see the index fall back to 260. I would keep an eye on BBL. This stock led us into the recent rally. It could lead us out as well, should that be the case. In summary, it's too early to panic.

Current Prediction

Short term: a double top points to 280. But our short term indicators have not been reliable in the past few weeks. I would therefore recommend caution with this target. Look to long term supports.

26th February: Last Friday saw a sudden breakout from the falling wedge that was featured in last week's short term chart. The falling wedge is a classic "interruption" pattern. A breakout from a falling wedge on high volume, such as that which occurred last Friday, does two things: first, it cancels the outstanding lower target. Secondly, it suggests that the previous recent high will be retested.

The success of a falling wedge breakout depends on the amount of volume accompanying the breakout. In the case of last Friday's breakout, volume of around 11 billion was the highest daily turnover for two weeks. Chances are therefore high that the index will rally to its recent high of around 345. But one day alone will not reverse a trend. To be confident, we should see another two or three days of high volume.

What happens then? There are three scenarios: first, volume on the rally to 345 could be weaker than that of the first rally. If volume is clearly weaker, not reaching 15 billion baht per day, we can expect a fizzle at 345 or lower, followed by a fall back to 310 or lower. Secondly, we could see volume exceeding that of the rally in January. In such a case we would have good reason to expect the strong resistance at 350 to break, and a higher target of 430 to be confirmed. Thirdly, volume could be marginal, meaning that it might be slightly less than the previous rally in January, or slightly more. In such as case we would not have a clear signal. We would then have to cross our fingers.

My feeling is that the rally should continue, due to the impressive volume in January. Volume was so good in the January rally. Patterns in the index, sectors and stocks are also very good. The greater probability therefore is that the index is in the process of reversing its long term trend from bearish to long, or at least medium, term bullish. Let's hope that the clear signals continue.

Current Prediction

Short term: a double top points to 300. Cancelled. Wedge breakout last Friday suggests that 345 will be retested. A double bottom points to 354. But we cannot rely on this bottom (see the reason below). We would be wiser to await a breakout from a medium term scenario.

19th February: A little top points to 300. But will the index stop there? My hope is that the index will not fall much further than this level and that we will see a nice big reversal pattern, as outlined in the third chart below. Volume in January and early this month justifies the hope. But until it happens, it is just a hope.

Current Prediction

Short term: a double top points to 300.

13th February: The index is consolidating, (correcting, or retracing if you like). This is a nervous time for investors. On most occasions, over the past eighteen months, a correction such as we are now seeing is the signal to sell every recent purchase and wait for a few months for the index to make a new low. This is bear market thinking. It takes a bit of courage now to say that the trend has reversed and we can expect the index to stop in its tracks, not too far from now.

Of course, there is a chance that the index will fail to find support. It is possible that the index will make a new low. The fundamental reasons are not encouraging: political uncertainty, no great economic upside in sight, weakness in Japan and the US markets. These factors do not generate optimism.

On the other hand, we have recently witnessed a short term reversal on huge volume. We may infer from this volume that a large number of new players have entered the market. Despite the bad reasons that I have listed above, these new players may be presumed to have good reasons to have entered the market. (Don't ask me what they are.) Unless something happens to discourage them, we may assume that many of these new players will not take a short term profit and run. Many of them will. But I am betting that a sufficient number of them will hold and wait. It is this phenomenon on which I base my expectations that the correction will only be a short term one and that we will see the market rally again after a week, or two, or three.

I could be wrong. We have no valid higher target. A fall below 300 would be a danger sign. A fall below 260 would suggest that I am wrong.  But experience suggests that the greater probability favours a short correction, followed by a further rally.

Current Prediction

Short term: a double top points to 300.

5th February: The market spent last week consolidating. With luck, consolidation will continue on for a week or two, with volume not slipping below 10 billion baht per day. We could see the index fall back to 300. That would be a healthy thing, provided volume remained strong (indicating new hopefuls coming in to take the place of timid short timers). On that scenario, I would expect the market to rally swiftly to the next stage: 380 - 390.

29th January: The market has reached the short term target that we set a couple of weeks ago. The best thing now would be a week or two of consolidation. We could then predict a higher target. At present, we have no higher targets; only the hope that current strong volume will propel the market higher.

Current Prediction

Short term: double bottom points to 345 - done

Medium term: triple bottom points to 340 - done

Long term: none

Currency: none

22nd January: High recent volume confirms that the market has reversed. The downside in the short term would be around 295. But we can look forward to the market consolidating and eventually reaching 500 again, perhaps at the middle of this year.

There are now two long term scenarios: first, a long term double bottom: the index breaks 500 and rallies to 800 over the course of the next year or two. Secondly, a triangle: the market rallies to 500 by the middle of the year and fails, returning to 300 by the end of the year. The key to assessing the probability of either scenario will be volume. These two scenarios are shown below with explanations of the relative volume that we should need to see in each case.

My expectation is for the fast track. This expectation is based on volume patterns for some stocks, such as BBL, TFB and NFS. Recent volume for these stocks already looks high enough to make a long term double bottom, as opposed to a triangle.

With luck, the SET will be the best performing market in Asia, if not the world, this year. After all, it has been the worst performer, being still not even 20% of its peak of 1,700 seven years ago.

Current Prediction

Short term: double bottom points to 345

Medium term: triple bottom points to 340

Long term: head and shoulders top pointing to 240 is cancelled

Currency: none

8th January: The SET index gave good evidence today that the market has reversed. First, volume was the highest that we have seen for a year. Secondly, the BBL chart, shows a very persuasive medium term reversal. If volume remains strong for the rest of the week, there is a good chance that the index has reversed its long down trend and will reach 340 to 350 in the short term.

Current Prediction

Short term:

Medium term: triple bottom points to 340

Long term: a head and shoulders top points to 240 on a log scale. This target is unlikely, given the high volume accompanying today's rally, which suggests that the market has reversed.

Currency: none


2000

18th December: Our prediction of 316 has failed. We now have a support at around 269. If that fails, there are other supports at around 262, 258 and then our long term target of 240 which is still valid.

Recent rising volume could indicate a short term rally. Beware of a rally to 285 on low volume. That could merely be the right shoulder of a short term top pointing to 240. The chances of the index falling to 240 over the next few weeks would be enhanced by a plunge in US and other Asian markets. Take a look at the outlooks for those markets.

Positive factors are in the Banking and Communications sectors. Both of those sectors had good volume last week. Both look encouraging. But keep an eye on the index and the volume if we see a rally approaching 285. A fizzle at 280 to 285 is my greatest concern this week and next.

Current Prediction

Short term: a reverse head and shoulders points to 312. Confirmed by a break above 290 on strong volume. Cancelled if the target is not reached this week.

Medium term: none

Long term: a head and shoulders top points to 240 on a log scale. Not yet cancelled. But a breakout from a long term falling wedge in mid-October could indicate a bottom at 250. We should wait for further evidence, such as a breakout from the medium term triple bottom with neckline at 296.

Currency: none

11th December: The index is still poised on good support at 272. If it fails, the next good support is around 260. Below that, our long term target of 240, still valid but dubious, would be the next expected point.

Banking sector has again touched good long term support. Volume in the finance sector has fizzled. Communications is now looking like the most promising sector with good recent volume and a nice reversal pattern in the making.

The short term pattern pointing to 320 no longer points to 320. The recent pullback changed the neckline. At best we are looking at 312. But if that doesn't happen this week, we are left in limbo with no short term reversal. If that happens, the long term trend should be presumed to be down.

Current Prediction

Short term: a reverse head and shoulders points to 312. Confirmed by a break above 290 on strong volume. Cancelled if the target is not reached this week.

Medium term: none

Long term: a head and shoulders top points to 240 on a log scale. Not yet cancelled. But a breakout from a long term falling wedge in mid-October could indicate a bottom at 250. We should wait for further evidence, such as a breakout from the medium term triple bottom with neckline at 296.

Currency: none

4th December: The critical level for the SET this week is around 372. Below this level, the pattern pointing to 320 will be cancelled. In such case, we should be considering the 240 scenario again. Long term supports for banking stocks and the banking sector give some hope for an end to the recent bearish sentiment. But weakness in communications stocks, such as Shin, give a more bearish implication.

Current Prediction

Short term: a reverse head and shoulders points to 320. Confirmed if the index rallies above 295 on strong volume.

Medium term: none

Long term: a head and shoulders top points to 240 on a log scale. Not yet cancelled. But a breakout from a long term falling wedge in mid-October could indicate a bottom at 250. We should wait for further evidence, such as a breakout from the medium term triple bottom with neckline at 296.

Currency: none

27th November: The index has developed a weak spot: A little double top points back to 272. This pattern need not harm our reversal pattern pointing to 320. But it is not a good sign. A mere pullback to the neckline of a nice reversal pattern, such as the current reverse head and shoulders that points to 320, is nothing to fear. But when the pullback is preceded by a topping pattern, there is cause for anxiety - especially when some of the big markets in the region (Hongkong, Korea, Japan) look weak. The little double top in red is such a pattern.

Thus we are looking at two important numbers this week. First, 272 (271 or 270 later in the week). If the index falls below this level, the reversal pattern pointing to 320 will be cancelled. In such a case we should prepare for 240. Secondly, 295. If this level breaks on high volume, we can hope for a rally to around 345.

The third scenario is that the index rallies above 295 on weak volume. In such a case, we would have to keep guessing.

Current Prediction

Short term: a reverse head and shoulders points to 320. Confirmed if the index rallies above 295 on strong volume.

Medium term: none

Long term: a head and shoulders top points to 240 on a log scale. Not yet cancelled. But a breakout from a long term falling wedge in mid-October could indicate a bottom at 250. We should wait for further evidence, such as a breakout from the medium term triple bottom with neckline at 296.

Currency: none

20th November: The short term reversal pattern pointing to 320 looks very persuasive. The threat of US markets crashing has now subsided (although it has not been removed). We should therefore expect the next hurdle, now at around 296, to break soon. If volume picks up again there will be a good chance of a medium term reversal developing. In such event, we could hope for a next target of 360. A few days of rallies accompanied by 9 or 10 billion baht turnover would be cause for optimism. But if volume trickles away back to 2 or 3 billion, the show is likely to be curtailed.

Short term: a reverse head and shoulders points to 320. Confirmed if the index rallies above 296

Medium term: none

Long term: a head and shoulders top points to 240 on a log scale. Not yet cancelled. But a breakout from a long term falling wedge in mid-October could indicate a bottom at 250. We should wait for further evidence, such as a breakout from the medium term triple bottom with neckline at 296.

Currency: none

13th November: The SET has made a very fine reversal pattern. We could not hope for a better one. Target of 320 is valid in the short term. The only major resistance that needs to be passed is the resistance at 300. If that resistance is passed on good volume, we will have a triple bottom reversal with target of around 360. That would give further evidence that the market has reversed the long term bearish trend that commenced in the middle of 1999. We could then hope for a test of the 500 level in the first half of next year.

There is only one warning light flashing: the US markets and Japan. There is the possibility of a big slide on the Nasdaq. Japan is also bearish. A Nasdaq crash would not help the Thai market. Thus a fall below 285 would signal a failure of the current rally. We would then be looking at our target of 240, which has still not been cancelled.

Current Prediction

Short term: a reverse head and shoulders points to 320. Confirmed if the index rallies above 300.

Medium term: none

Long term: a head and shoulders top points to 240 on a log scale. Not yet cancelled. But a breakout from a long term falling wedge in mid-October could indicate a bottom at 250. We should wait for further evidence, such as a breakout from the medium term triple bottom with neckline at 300.

Currency: none

6th November: The reversal scenario for the index is looking more persuasive by the week. Volume was good last week, and now the weekly chart has broken out from a falling wedge.

But we will not confirm a short term reversal until there is strong volume of 8 billion baht per day or more. There are still some weaknesses in the market. Volume in the banking and finance sectors was not strong last week. Communications still has some weakness. Property still has an outstanding lower target. Thus, despite the improving chances of a reversal, the chance of a fall back to 240 cannot yet be dismissed. This danger will be reduced if the index starts putting on volume in excess of 8 billion baht and breaks 300.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: a head and shoulders top points to 240 on a log scale. Not yet cancelled. But a breakout from a long term falling wedge in mid-October could indicate a bottom at 250. We should wait for further evidence, such as a breakout from the medium term triple bottom with neckline at 300.

Currency: a double bottom could indicate that the weakening trend has reversed

30th October: A very pretty short term pattern is forming. If it forms and breaks out, we will have good cause to expect a short term reversal, with upside of 313. If this target is reached on strong volume, we will have a medium term reversal with upside of 400.

Factors in favour of this scenario: good patterns developing in finance and electronics sectors. Factors against: weakening volume in the banking sector and poor outlook for the region, especially Japan. I don't see Thailand rallying to 400 while the rest of Asia is in decline. We should therefore keep a finger on the regional pulse, as well as examining the local market.

23rd October: Last week saw excellent volume and good rallying. There is a chance that the index has made a bottom. A long term wedge broke out on good volume last Friday. This is the first sign of a bottom. But a wedge breakout alone is not sufficient evidence of a reversal. We need to see a few days or a week of consolidation below 285, then a breakout on volume greater than that of last Friday. If that happens there is a good chance that the log target of 250, reached a couple of weeks ago, marked the bottom of the current long term bear cycle. The index would then have a chance of rallying to the 500 region over the next six to nine months.

If the index fails to break 285 later in the week on strong volume, there is still the long term head and shoulders top to contend with. It points to 240. It is valid, but could easily fail, due the rising neckline. It might be sufficient that the long term double top has already reached its logarithmic target of 250. More evidence should come this week.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: a head and shoulders top points to 240 on a log scale. Not yet cancelled. But a breakout from a long term falling wedge could indicate a bottom at 250. We should wait for further evidence, such as a breakout from the medium term triple bottom with neckline at 305.

Currency: none

16th October: The index reached our first long term log target of 250 last week. We are now awaiting for the next target: 240. There could be a rally in the meantime. We could see a rally to 270 or thereabouts. If that happens, I would not expect a long term reversal to build from it. In other words, I am expecting the index to reach at least 240, and possibly 220.

The reason for such pessimism is that the Asian region is likely to be depressed for some months to come. I cannot see Thailand rallying while the major Asian markets are sinking. Keep an eye on Hongkong, Tokyo and Korea. It is quite likely that the SET will remain depressed for the rest of this year, and quite possibly the first quarter of next year.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: head and shoulders top points to 275 on a log scale and 240 on an arithmetic scale. Not yet cancelled.

Long term: a head and shoulders top points to 240 on a log scale. Not yet cancelled.

Currency: none

9th October: The index has made a little double top that points to 220. All sectors look bearish, except for finance, which is unlikely to rally alone. I would not be surprised if the much hoped for finance rally fizzles, good volume notwithstanding.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: head and shoulders top points to 275 on a log scale and 240 on an arithmetic scale. Not yet cancelled.

Long term: a head and shoulders top points to 240 on a log scale. Not yet cancelled.

Currency: none

2nd October: There is a chance that the index will reverse at the current level, but the greater probability is that the index will drop to 240 or 250 before reversing. This week could see a sharp drop in the communications sector.

Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: head and shoulders top points to 275 on a log scale and 240 on an arithmetic scale. Not yet cancelled.

Long term: a head and shoulders top points to 240 on a log scale. Not yet cancelled.

Currency: none

25th September: The communications sector broke some key supports last week, suggesting a fall back to its previous lows. The banking sector also broke a key support, suggesting a fall to 110, from its current 140. All of this suggests that the index is likely to fall to 240 before bottoming and possibly back below 200.
Current Prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: head and shoulders top points to 275 on a log scale and 240 on an arithmetic scale. Not yet cancelled.

Long term: a head and shoulders top points to 240 on a log scale. Not yet cancelled.

Currency: none

18th September: Some good supports are approaching for the index and some of the sectors. In addition there are falling wedges appearing for some of the sectors. Thus there is a chance that the index could be in the process of making a double bottom. A rally above 300 this week with continually rising volume would be the signal. With luck, it would be a clear signal.

Chances of the index reversing are, however, reduced by the bearish wave now passing over much of the rest of the region. See Hongkong and Korea, for example. It is possible, but unlikely that the Thai market would reverse while the major Asian markets are bearish.

Current Prediction

Short term: head and shoulders top pointing to 282

Medium term: head and shoulders top points to 275 on a log scale and 240 on an arithmetic scale. Not yet cancelled.

Long term: a head and shoulders top points to 240 on a log scale. Not yet cancelled.

Currency: none

11th September: Hopes for a rally to 400 have faded in the near term, as the index has now made a pattern pointing to the previous low of 282, at least. There is a high chance that the index will go to the log target of one of the head and shoulders tops: either 275, or 240.

Current Prediction

Short term: breakout from a wedge on good volume suggests a target of 330.

Medium term: head and shoulders top points to 275 on a log scale and 240 on an arithmetic scale. Not yet cancelled.

Long term: a head and shoulders top points to 240 on a log scale. Not yet cancelled.

Currency: none

4th September: The index faces its biggest test at 330. If it passes that level on good volume, we can hope for a rally to somewhere near 400. If it fails at somewhere around 322, and volume dribbles away, we can start getting out our bear trapping equipment.

14th August: The index now faces resistance at around 323. If that level is passed on good volume, there is a good chance that the index will rally to 390, at least. But the downside of 240 cannot yet be ruled out.

Current Prediction

Short term: breakout from a wedge on good volume suggests a target of 330.

Medium term: head and shoulders top points to 275 on a log scale and 240 on an arithmetic scale. Not yet cancelled.

Long term: a head and shoulders top points to 240 on a log scale. Not yet cancelled.

Currency: none

7th August: Not a phrase that I like to use, but "cautious optimism" is perhaps the best way to describe the short to medium term outlook for the SET. The most impressive phenomenon was the volume last Friday. This level of activity gave the index a chance of making a medium term bottom at the current level - without needing to fall to 240, as I had previously suggested. However, one day of volume, alone, does not make for a durable reversal. A modicum of caution would therefore be in order, as we monitor the patient to see if it picks up strength throughout the week.

Current Prediction

Short term: breakout from a wedge on good volume suggests a target of 330.

Medium term: head and shoulders top points to 275 on a log scale and 240 on an arithmetic scale. Not yet cancelled.

Long term: a head and shoulders top points to 240 on a log scale. Not yet cancelled.

Currency: none

31st July: Chances for a bottom at the current level are fading. The banking sector, a major force for the index, looks like it needs to fall another 30 or 40 points to 110. That would see the SET index fall to around 240, our long term head and shoulders top log target. Even at that level, we should not assume a bottom. There is a credible scenario that the index will make a new low, falling to 170 by the end of the year. That need not happen. But if the rest of the region suffers a prolonged weakness for the next five or six months, the SET is unlikely to bottom at 240.

Of course there is a chance that the unexpected happens; namely, the index reverses at the current level. The banking sector could be the sector to indicate such a bottom. There are two scenarios for the banking sector below. The second scenario shows a bottom at the current level. It is plausible, but the probability is not so good.

24th July: The index has given no clear indication of where the bottom will be. I can only guess. First, the index could make a bottom around the current level. There is good support at this level. The lack of support in the banking sector, however, makes this scenario less likely.

The next probable point of support is at around 280. The index has a medium term log target of 275. Thus we could see a bottom at this level.

If the index fails to form a bottom at 275, the next region of support is the log target for the long term pattern - 244. The arithmetic target for that pattern, 180 is unlikely, but not inconceivable.

Current Prediction

Short term: nothing

Medium term: head and shoulders top points to 275 on a log scale and 244 on an arithmetic scale.

Long term: a head and shoulders top points to 240 on a log scale. But there is good support at 310, and hope for a bottom at that level. But we need to see a reversal pattern before getting too hopeful.

Currency: none

17th July: Much the same prognostication as last week: chance of a bottom at the current level (290 to 310). If the index falls through this level, the next stop is likely to be around 250.

10th July: The index still has a chance to form a double bottom at the current level. But the banking sector is looking weak. It could take the index over the edge and below 300.

3rd July: The question now is where will the index bottom. The first chance is that it will form a bottom at around 310. If that level fails, the next opportunity will be at around 290. After that, we should be prepared for a big fall, led by the banks, to around 250.

26th June: The short term is bearish. A triangle points to 310, at least. But there is still a long term pattern pointing to at least 275. If the support at 310 fails, we may expect at least this target. But 275 need not be the bottom. There is a good chance of 250 if the index falls to 275.

All sectors are looking bearish: Banking, Finance, Communications, Property and the Electronics have short, medium and long term bearish patterns.

Many stocks are sitting on or close to good long term supports,  giving a chance that the index could make a bottom at 315. Take a look at some of the communications, finance and property stocks on the stocks page.

If the index doesn't bottom at around 310 or 315, we should expect further falls. A bottom for the SET would need volume of 8 billion baht per day attending a subsequent rally.

Current Prediction

Short term:  triangle points to 315

Medium term: none

Long term: a head and shoulders top points to 240 on a log scale. But there is good support at 310, and hope for a bottom at that level. But we need to see a reversal pattern before getting too hopeful.

Currency: none

19th June: Some encouraging signs. But no convincing breakout yet. 370 on volume of 9 billion baht would be the first sign of a reversal. Then we would need to see a rally above 410 on good volume. If that doesn't happen, a fall to somewhere between 240 and 270 should be considered.

Current Prediction

Short term:  nothing clear

Medium term: none

Long term: a head and shoulders top points to 240 on a log scale. But there is good support at 310, and hope for a bottom at that level. But we need to see a reversal pattern before getting too hopeful.

Currency: none

12th June: A rally above 360 on a mere 8 billion daily volume will give a valid short term reversal with a target of 410. But that rally, alone would not reverse the medium term down trend. It would be a healthy start. But we would need to see consolidation between 400 and 410 for another month and higher volume. We could then hope for a rally to 500 by the end of the third quarter.

Slow boat long term scenario: As for the long term, we should now face the prospect that the index could be trapped under 530 for the rest of this year and next year. That sounds depressing. But there will be good opportunities for short term trading if we take the early hint - sell off at 530 in the fourth quarter of this year, take a nice leisurely holiday, buy back in the second quarter next year at 350 and hope for a breakout middle of next year with a sharp rally to 850 towards the end of next year. (See the long term scenario below).

Of course, this scenario presupposes a failure of the index this year at 520 or 530. Volume will be the key. If we see a rally to 530 on strong volume, equaling that of the second quarter of 1999, there is a chance that we will see a breakout this year, and a rally to 850 or 900 at the end of this year. I'm not so optimistic about that. First, it is the habit of the Thai market to reverse with long term triangle patterns. Second, we had a failure this year in January. The market failed to break 500 and volume slipped away. This failure dashed the hopes for a reverse head and shoulders pattern, which would have been the best case reversal for this market. Thirdly, banking still looks weak. Chances are that this market is going to take another year and a half to make a good long term reversal.

5th June: The index has turned on our "leg" support at around 300. But there is no reversal pattern yet, despite encouraging volume on the rally. Bearish target of 275 is valid. It will only be cancelled if the index rallies above 370, or if we get a nice reversal pattern.

15th  May:  We can look for a bottom at either the current level, 310 or 240. At present, there are many good long term supports holding sectors and stocks. This is the first sign that a bottom might be occurring. But is not sufficient. We need to see a nice double bottom or reverse head and shoulders. Such a bottom will take a while to develop; perhaps weeks. Brave souls might start fishing now. But the danger of a fall below 300 should not be ruled out.

Current Prediction

Short term:  nothing clear

Medium term: none

Long term: a head and shoulders top points to 240 on a log scale. But there is good support at 310, and hope for a bottom at that level. But we need to see a reversal pattern before getting too hopeful.

Currency: none

8th  May: The index has made a valid head and shoulders top that points to 355. There is support at the current level (today's close). If it fails, there is no good support before 300.

The banking sector has broken a pattern suggesting a fall back to its previous low. Communications is still well supported. But a chart of the stock Advance suggests that that stock could take a tumble if its current support breaks (that happened today. The chart on the next page is not updated).

If the current support fails, we should prepare for a fall to 300 -310 over the next couple of months.

1st May: The index headed back to the neckline of 383 this week. This is an important neckline. If it breaks, there is a high probability that the index will fall to 353. The only possible intervening support would be at around 370 - the previous recent bottom. However the top would be likely to see this support break. At 353 there is no apparent support. The next good support would be at around 310.

My guess is that banking would be the sector that would suffer the most, with finance and property following. Important support for KTB this week will be at 14 and then 12. If these supports break, there is a good chance that this stock will return to its previous low, taking the banking sector, and the index with it.

24th April: A fall below 383 would confirm a target of around 350. Some good long term supports are being tested with banking, finance and communications.  Check out the stocks page.

17th April: The index is still looking weak. Volume is falling, suggesting a fall to 360 as the most likely short term scenario.

Meanwhile, some sectors are looking strong. Many property stocks have made nice little reversals. They could be bottoming. Transport stocks are also bucking the trend. The chemical sector also staged an impressive rally today. So it's not all gloom.

20th March: Some positive developments last week: more finance stocks made little short term reversal patterns. Stocks with little reversal patterns proceeded nicely to target. The Banking Sector rallied a little. But there is till no good signal that the index will soon rally to around 470. The thing that is missing is volume. We need to see volume of 10, 13 and then 15 billion baht per day, before we can be confident of a rally in the short term. Otherwise, the chances are that the index will fall to 370 before attempting a bottom.

Current Prediction

Short term:  nothing clear

Medium term: none

Long term: nothing useful - we have a valid target of 675, valid until September, but the index is meandering aimlessly, making the prediction unreliable.

Currency: none

20th March: Banking and finance still look weak. Although there could be some excitement in the short term with KTB. Two stocks have made very nice reversals after turning on long term support. Check them out on the Thai stocks page. They are a paradigm for sort of signal we need to see before we can be confident of a medium term reversal for the Thai market.

There is chance that the index could make a short term bottom at the current level. But I don't see it happening until at least the end of March, or early next month. Keep an eye on volume. If it stays low, chances of a reversal are slim.

13th March: The index could be making a short term bottom. The neckline would be around 405. If the index breaks this level on good volume (at least 10 billion baht turnover), there is a good chance that the index will rally to 475. This is the next crucial resistance. If the index jumps the 475 hurdle on volume of 15 - 20 billion baht per day, there is a good chance that a medium term bottom has been made.

The Banking Sector is still a worry. The rally in banking last week had not volume. This sector could still bring the index down. If the index gets to 475, there is a chance that it will fall back to somewhere above its previous low. I say "somewhere above" because it is unlikely that the whole market would plummet. Communications and Electronics sectors are bullish and can be expected to counter any falls in the banking and finance sectors. In the event that the index failed to break 475, the crucial support would be around 375. As to where the bottom would be, we should have to wait and see.

6th March: Sadly, we must now face the prospect of the index sinking to its previous bottom of around 200. Our symmetrical triangle of last week, which could go either way, now looks more like a descending triangle. That means, it favours a breakout downside rather than upside. If that were to occur, the index would likely continue slipping until the middle of the year.

That would be the fast track. The alternative would be a rally to 475, another tedious failure, a return to 370, and then the big plunge.

As always, keep an eye on volume. There is a chance that we have a double bottom at the current level in the short term. If there is a rally to 475 over the next few weeks, keep an eye on volume. It is the absence of strong volume during the rally of last October to January that assisted us in predicting the current decline of the index. Strong volume, or its absence, will continue to be the best indicator of the medium term prospects for the index.

28th February: This market is in danger of falling to previous lows; perhaps not the previous low of 200, but below 300. The chief culprit in this bearish scenario is the banking sector. The sector is on good support at the moment. But the support is also the neckline of a head and shoulders top that could see a fall to the sector's previous low. BBL, KTB and BAY have made similar patterns.

Communications, on the other hand, is still bullish. With luck, this sector will keep the index suspended. We could see the index bounce up and down between 400 and 450 for the next few months. The greatest uncertainty lies in the banking sector, which is now on good support. If this support fails, the index is likely to go down with it. Only when the banking sector, (and to some extent the finance sector), bottoms can we expect a sustained rebound. There is no sign yet of a bottom. And I would not expect a bottom until the middle of the year.

That still leaves room for my possible 900 target for the year. Read my reasoning below and check out the Malaysia chart for an example of what could happen.

21st February: The market is looking bearish, with the exception of Communications and Electronics. Banking, Finance, and Property now face the prospect of returning to their previous lows, dragging the SET down with them, perhaps to as low as 300.

This bearish scenario need not occur. We are likely to see the index dip a little below 400 and then rebound. Volume on the rebound will be the only clue as to whether we will see a continued decline for the SET over the coming months. If the SET rebounds to 430 or 450 on volume reaching barely 4 or 5 billion baht per day, chances are, we will see a fall to 300. Otherwise, our bullish scenarios are still possible.

At present the communications and electronics sectors are still looking good. It is still likely that these sectors will do well in the coming months, even if banking, finance and property, among others, continue to slump.

14th February: The market is polarized in a way that we have not seen in recent times. Banking and Finance are heading south, while Communications, and bedfellows Electronic Components and Electrical Products are booming. The index is reflecting this confusion by making a triangle. What happens next?

Current Prediction

Short term:  none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom still points to around 700, but is not a useful prediction,

Currency: none

7th February: The hoped for volume has not arrived. The index is now getting close to the neckline of the pattern that could give a target of 950. But without the volume, there is a strong chance that the breakout will not happen. Or, if does, that it would fail. I am therefore considering some bearish scenarios, most probable of which would be a correction to 400.

Current Prediction

Short term:  none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom still points to around 700, but is not a useful prediction,

Currency: none

31st January: The index is clinging to supports: medium term and long term rounding bottom. But the volume that we need for a breakout from 550 is not happening. The danger would be a top forming at the current level and a fall back to 400. Support at 460 - 470, then 440, is critical.

Current Prediction

Short term:  none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom still points to around 700, but will be cancelled if the index falls much below 360.

Currency: none

10th January: Last week's correction sets the stage for a possible reversal pattern pointing above 600 in the short term. Communications pulled back sharply. But the sector is still likely to lead the index higher, with Banking stirring out of its sloth. Nice, symmetrical patterns are now appearing in the long term charts (with the exception of the Property Sector). We now need good volume to get the ball rolling. 10 or 12 billion baht daily turnover is a modest start. But in coming weeks, we should see 20 or 30 billion. Breakout above 550 should see record high volumes exceeding 30 billion baht. If that happens, we could expect to see the SET reach 850 or 900 this year. The alternative would be a half-baked rally that fails at resistance at 680.

Record volumes last year were encouraging. They suggest an offshore interest in the market which, with luck, could soon return. In dollar terms, a daily turnover of even 30 billion baht is not a huge sum. It is not even one billion US$. It would represent a modest day's turnover in Hongkong or Korea. Yet it would boost the local market dramatically. Let us hope.

Current Prediction

Short term:  none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom still points to around 700, but will be cancelled if the index falls much below 360.

Currency: none

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