Recent History of Thailand's SET Index

2008

14th July: The weekly chart has broken out of a top pointing to 645. But the longer term charts still show support. We need to wait a bit longer to confirm the top. Another twenty points down might resolve the uncertainty.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: head and shoulders top (weekly) points (log) 645, (arithmetic) 625

Long term:
1.  Symmetrical triangle (daily) points to 1,000 - questionable
2.  Symmetrical triangle (weekly) points to 1,000 - questionable

Currency:  none

7th July: Testing last ditch supports in the first four charts. If these supports fail, chances are that we will see a fall to 650 - at least.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:
1.  Symmetrical triangle (daily) points to 1,000 - questionable
2.  Symmetrical triangle (weekly) points to 1,000 - questionable

Currency:  none

30th June: After a surprising plunge (yes, I was quite surprised) the index and most sectors are sitting on good support. Only the transportation sector appears to be in danger of much more downside. There is also good support on the weekly chart. So we will have to wait and see whether supports hold.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:
1.  Symmetrical triangle (daily) points to 1,000
2.  Symmetrical triangle (weekly) points to 1,000

Currency:  none

12th May: No change from last week: the real test would be a rally above the neckline at 860. Resistance would then be at 930 to 960.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:
1.  Symmetrical triangle (daily) points to 1,000
2.  Symmetrical triangle (weekly) points to 1,000

Currency:  none

5th May: No change from last week: the real test would be a rally above the neckline at 860. Resistance would then be at 930 to 960.

28th April: The market only traded a few days last week. There was a bit of a rally. But the real test would be a rally above the neckline at 860. Resistance would then be at 930 to 960.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:
1.  Symmetrical triangle (daily) points to 1,000
2.  Symmetrical triangle (weekly) points to 1,000

Currency:  none

21st April: The market only traded a few days last week. There was a bit of a rally. But the real test would be a rally above the neckline at 860. Resistance would then be at 930 to 960.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:
1.  Symmetrical triangle (daily) points to 1,000
2.  Symmetrical triangle (weekly) points to 1,000

Currency:  none

14th April: Tiny movement last week. Banking, property and energy look strong.

Breakout from a reversal pattern in the banking sector gives hope that a similar pattern will soon break out for the SET. A close above 860 would confirm our target of 1,000. The property sector was active last week. A surge in that sector could amount to a breakout from a long term reversal pattern, which would be bullish.

7th April: Tiny movement last week. My previous comments still apply. Note we had two days last week with turnover  above 20 billion baht.

Breakout from a reversal pattern in the banking sector gives hope that a similar pattern will soon break out for the SET. A close above 860 would confirm our target of 1,000. The property sector was active last week. A surge in that sector could amount to a breakout from a long term reversal pattern, which would be bullish.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:
1.  Symmetrical triangle (daily) points to 1,000
2.  Symmetrical triangle (weekly) points to 1,000

Currency:  none

31st March: Breakout from a reversal pattern in the banking sector gives hope that a similar pattern will soon break out for the SET. A close above 860 would confirm our target of 1,000.

Bangkok Bank broke out of a reversal pattern with a target of 147. Volume is not sufficient to inspire much confidence at the moment, but the breakout is a 10 year high. Similarly, there are many stock charts showing price on good support, or about to break out of bullish patterns. Volume is lacking in all cases. We need to see a few days of turnover for the SET above 20 billion baht per day as a start, in order to be confident of a rally to the 1,000 level and beyond.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:
1.  Symmetrical triangle (daily) points to 1,000
2.  Symmetrical triangle (weekly) points to 1,000

Currency:  none

24th March: Key supports are 780 on the daily chart and 760 on the weekly chart. The bullish target prevails while these supports hold.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:
1.  Symmetrical triangle (daily) points to 1,000
2.  Symmetrical triangle (weekly) points to 1,000

Currency:  none

10th March: Key supports are 780 on the daily chart and 760 on the weekly chart. The bullish target prevails while these supports hold.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:
1.  Symmetrical triangle (daily) points to 1,000
2.  Symmetrical triangle (weekly) points to 1,000

Currency:  none

3rd March: The index is well supported, as are many of the sectors: commerce, finance and electronics are shown this week. The bullish long term target is the prevailing scenario provided the index stays above 760.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:
1.  Symmetrical triangle (daily) points to 1,000
2.  Symmetrical triangle (weekly) points to 1,000

Currency:  none

25th February: The index is well supported, as are many of the sectors, notably banking and energy. The bullish long term target is the prevailing scenario provided the index stay above 760.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:
1.  Symmetrical triangle (daily) points to 1,000
2.  Symmetrical triangle (weekly) points to 1,000

Currency:  none

21st January: Weakness in many sectors casts doubt on our target of 1,000. But banking is sitting on a very strong log scale support and the weekly SET chart shows a strong support at the current level. So there are pluses and negatives. Of course, the end of the global bull would be a big negative as the SET's strong performance since early 2003 correlates with that of most markets in the world. A fall below 740 would jeapordize our long term target.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:
1.  Symmetrical triangle (daily) points to 1,000
2.  Symmetrical triangle (weekly) points to 1,000

Currency:  none

14th January: Lots of good supports around. If they fail, the next good support level would be at 720 to 740. Target of 1,000 is still valid. But note that on the PE chart, at 12, the index is in the danger zone.

7th January 2008: The index and its long term target appear safe while the index remains above support at around 800. This support is shown clearly on the second chart.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term:
1.  Symmetrical triangle (daily) points to 1,000
2.  Symmetrical triangle (weekly) points to 1,000

Currency:  none


2007
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
21st May: The index has broken out of a medium term double bottom giving a target of around 780. Strong resistance at 750 makes the target questionable. The index has also broken the resistance that defines the one year bear trend, giving a good chance that the index will reverse and start a bull trend.

14th May: The index has turned on resistance in the first chart at around 720. Banking is in danger of topping. If that happens, the index is in danger of  weakening in the short term. As for the medium term, there is very little indication. Property and Petrochemicals are the most promising sectors.

23rd April: Very little change since last week and nothing solid to go on. Significant short term support is at around 670 and resistance at around 720. Between these levels, the index is just ranging.

 

12th March: Still not much to go on. The scenario in the first chart suggests that the index might make another longer bottom, retesting the recent low 600 level. But that's just a guess. Many good long term bottoming scenarios in individual stocks. But big banks BBL and SCB are encountering resistance.

 

19th February: The sharp rally from around 610 to 700 looks like too much too soon. Although the short term trend is still bullish, I would not be surprised if we saw a fall back to, or near, the previous bottom, and a more leisurely second bottom over the coming months. Just a hunch. There really isn't much to go on.

12th February: A strong rally last week with good volume last Thursday. But nothing to suggest a bottom for the market, other than a turn on long term support in the second chart. The first chart shows a one year bear market, which we must presume until the contrary is shown.

 
 
 

2006

23rd December: Last week's falls too the index and most of the sectors to good long term supports, with the exception of communications, which has at least fulfilled the minimum target for a long term top pattern. Now it's a question of waiting and seeing what happens next. With luck we will see bottoming patterns. But the alternative would be the start of a medium term bear market. The latter would not surprise, given the lack of confidence in the market. However, it would be premature to make such a judgment.

 
 
16th October: A bullish scenario in the first chart has hope if the index rallies above 715 on strong volume. But resistance at the current level is strong. Only a rally above 730 would pass all the nearby resistances.

9th October: The outlook for this market is ambiguous, as is shown in the first chart. A fall through 680 would give a bearish short term outlook. A rally above 720 would be bullish.

2nd October: A fall below 675 would likely see a further fall to at least 650. A turn on support at 680, in the first chart, could give a bullish result.

18th September: Good volume last week but the outlook is still ambiguous. A close above 715 on good volume would be a good start.
21st August: The index has made a short term bottom. But there is still a danger of large top, especially if the index fails to pass 720. On the other hand, the index could retest recent lows and make a longer term double bottom, as it did in 2004. Whatever happens, we have a few months of uncertainty ahead.

7th August: Good bottoming chance for the index: good double bottoms with good volume for the index and some sectors. Resistance at the current level and at 720. Failure to pass 720 would raise the alarm of a major bear reversal.

 
 
 
 19th June: The SET has found support at the current level. But Banking and Finance sector long term charts have failed, giving the prospect of even further downside. Communications could take a plunge.
8th May: The index has failed a short term support. But the Banking and Communications sectors look well supported. With luck, Thailand will soon follow the strong bullish regional trend.

Current prediction

Short term: 1. double bottom points to 787 - now questionable
                    2. rising wedge points to 755

Medium term: none

Long term: symmetrical triangle points to 960 (daily and weekly) - on hold till we get a breakout from resistance at around 770.

Currency:  none

1st May: The index still has a bullish chance provided we don't see a close below 755. The banking and finance sectors are well supported. The fund chart gives a bullish signal, but also shows long term resistance.

Current prediction

Short term: double bottom points to 787 - now questionable

Medium term: none

Long term: symmetrical triangle points to 960 (daily and weekly) - on hold till we get a breakout from resistance at around 770.

Currency:  none

17th April: The index pulled back a bit too far last week, making short term predictions questionable. The banking sector fell below a good support, removing some of the joy of the previous week.

Current prediction

Short term: double bottom points to 787 - now questionable

Medium term: none

Long term: symmetrical triangle points to 960 (daily and weekly) - on hold till we get a breakout from resistance at around 770.

Currency:  none

9th April: The index has a target of around 790. Good volume supports the target. A higher target in the banking sector also suggests that the market is going higher.

Current prediction

Short term: double bottom points to 792

Medium term: none

Long term: symmetrical triangle points to 960 (daily and weekly) - on hold till we get a breakout from resistance at around 770.

Currency:  none

3rd April: Good long term supports for the index and the Banking and Finance sectors. But the short term picture remains bearish unless the index can rally above 750 on strong volume.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: symmetrical triangle points to 960 (daily and weekly) - on hold till we get a breakout from resistance at around 770.

Currency:  non

27th March:  The scenario in the first chart is still the prevailing influence. A descending triangle in black is clearly bearish. A failure of the support at 724 could see the index fall as low as 680 in a few weeks.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: symmetrical triangle points to 960 (daily and weekly) - on hold till we get a breakout from resistance at around 770.

Currency:  none

17th March:  The index rallied on low volume last week, not inspiring confidence. Danger is that the index is making a descending triangle in the short term, with a consequent fall to 680. Too early to say yet. But the falling volume is bearish in the short term. On the other hand, the strong volume in January in the second chart is still consonant with a breakout from a long term triangle, as shown in that chart.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: symmetrical triangle points to 960 (daily and weekly) - on hold till we get a breakout from resistance at around 770.

Currency:  none

13th March:  The index shows good support at the current level. However, if the index breaks support in the first and second charts, a fall back to 680 should be contemplated.

Current prediction

Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: symmetrical triangle points to 960 (daily and weekly) - on hold till we get a breakout from resistance at around 770.

Currency:  none

6th March:  Major resistances at 760 and 765. Falling volume over the last week is not encouraging. The long term banking sector chart has been redrawn to show resistance at the current level. Let's see if that breaks. A strong rally from the banking sector would inspire confidence.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: symmetrical triangle points to 960 (daily and daily) - on hold till we get a breakout from resistance at around 770.

Currency:  none

13th February: The banking sector is still the most encouraging indicator for the market. The long term banking sector chart is still strongly bullish. The short term is, however, ambiguous. A rally above 744 on strong turnover of at least 30 billion baht would suggest an end to the recent weakness. A fall below 725 would suggest a retesting of 700.

6th February: A little top in the first chart could see the index fall back to 700 if we see a close below 735. However, Banking, Communications and Property all look bullish and safely supported. Finance is supported nearby. Thus, on balance, the market looks well supported.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: symmetrical triangle points to 960 (daily and daily)

Currency:  none

30th  January: A nice turn and rally on the support in the second chart adds impetus to the target of 960 to 980. Top danger in the first chart should be kept in mind until the index breaks the current resistance level. A close at 770 should do the trick.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: symmetrical triangle points to 960 (daily and daily)

Currency:  none

23rd January: The sell-off last week may be characterized as profit taking as the index pulls back to the neckline of the triangle in the second chart. The banking sector index shows a similar pullback. Both of these pullbacks are consonant with bullish targets provided we see the index make a new recent high in the next week or two.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: symmetrical triangle points to 960 (daily and daily)

Currency:  none

9th January: The index broke out of a triangle pattern with good volume of 50 billion baht on breakout. Target of 980 is highly likely. Note also the collection of triangles on the weekly chart, suggesting that the market often fulfills triangle targets.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: symmetrical triangle points to 960 (daily and daily)

Currency:  none


2005

24th December: A fair reversal scenario in the first chart gives hope that the index is now bottoming. The signal would be a strong rally on daily turnover of 30 billion baht or more.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid but probability has decreased due to fall below 680

Currency:  none

19th December: The short term bottoming scenario in the first chart could see a few more days of falling. A breakout thereafter with strong volume would be bullish. The long term banking sector index is the other important indicator to watch. A rally to 268 on strong volume would be a breakout from long term resistance and a potential long term reversal pattern.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid but probability has decreased due to fall below 680

12th December: The index made an impressive rally last week, on good volume. The wedge in the first chart suggests a retesting of recent high at around 705. But wedges are not reliable for targets.  More interesting is the long term banking sector chart. This chart shows the sector index testing long term neckline resistance for a pattern the breakout of which would portend a very strong rally for the banking sector and, quite likely, the whole market.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid but probability has decreased due to fall below 680

Currency:  none

5th December: The index and major sectors are on or near good supports. But there is no sign of a reversal yet. With luck, we will see on soon.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid but probability has decreased due to fall below 680

Currency:  none

28th November: The banking sector is well supported. But the finance sector has fallen further than expected and could fall to as low as 750, if we don't see a bottom soon. The index has support at the current level and at around 650

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid but probability has decreased due to fall below 680

Currency:  none

21st November: Very good supports in the SET index and Banking and Finance sectors suggest that the market should not fall much further. If these supports break, we shall have to re-evaluate the medium term outlook. However, the greater probability is that the index should soon bottom.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid but probability has decreased due to fall below 680

Currency:  none

14th November: Nothing exciting with the index; just a pullback to support in the first chart.

Current prediction
Short term: reverse head and shoulders points to 750 - cancelled

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid but probability has decreased due to fall below 680

Currency:  none

7th November: The index has turned on good supports in the first and third charts. Banking, finance and communications all have turned on good support.

Current prediction
Short term: reverse head and shoulders points to 750 - cancelled

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid but probability has decreased due to fall below 680

Currency:  none

31st October: The index is well supported, as are the banking, finance and property sector indices. If the SET fails the current support, the danger is a fall back to 650.

Current prediction
Short term: reverse head and shoulders points to 750

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid but probability has decreased due to fall below 680

Currency:  none
17th October: A small top in the first chart suggests bearishness. But the long term charts for Banking, Finance and Communications sectors are all very near good support. I would not expect the index to fall far.

Current prediction
Short term: reverse head and shoulders points to 750

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid but probability has decreased due to fall below 680

Currency:  none
10th October: The index is balancing on channel support in the first chart. A rally this week would improve the chances of the index reaching short term target of 750. Finance and Communications sectors are well supported in the medium and long terms and Banking is well supported in the long term. The index looks primed for a major rally.

Current prediction
Short term: reverse head and shoulders points to 750

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid but probability has decreased due to fall below 680

Currency:  none

26th September: Breakout from resistance in the first chart gives a good chance of  750, perhaps 770. Resistance at 800 - 830, would be the big test.

Current prediction
Short term: reverse head and shoulders points to 750 - 770 - highly likely if the index breaks 720 on strong volume of 30 billion baht.

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid but probability has decreased due to fall below 680 in recent weeks.

Currency:  none

19th September:   The index is now testing strong resistance. A close at 720 would pass the obstacle. On the other hand, a fall back to 690 would likely end the current medium term bull rally.

Current prediction
Short term: reverse head and shoulders points to 750 - highly likely if the index breaks 720 on strong volume of 30 billion baht.

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid but probability has decreased due to fall below 680 in recent weeks.

Currency:  none

12th September: Strong resistance for the SET, the banking sector and the property sector. Breakout from the banking sector long term chart would be especially important if it were accompanied by a surge of volume.

Current prediction
Short term: reverse head and shoulders points to 750 - highly likely if the index breaks 720 on strong volume of 30 billion baht.

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid but probability has decreased due to fall below 680 in recent weeks.

Currency:  none

5th September: Unexpected breakout, on good volume, from the pattern in the first chart gives a tentative target of 760. Resistance at 718 and then around 740.

Current prediction
Short term: reverse head and shoulders points to 760 - highly likely if the index breaks 720 on strong volume of 30 billion baht during the week of 5th September.

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid but probability has decreased due to fall below 680 in recent weeks.

Currency:  none

29th August: Nice rallies. Not enough volume for a persuasive bottom now. However, there is a good chance that the index has bottomed. Most persuasive is the long term support in yellow on the long term banking sector chart. Finance is well supported too. Now it's a matter of volume building.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid but probability has decreased due to fall below 680 in recent weeks.

Currency:  none

22nd August: Best thing for the index now would be to move sideways for another few weeks and build up volume. Noticeable increase of daily turnover, from the current tens to the mid twenties, upper twenties and then thirty billion baht per day would be the signal of a continuation of the bull. Keep an eye on banking stocks . They look well supported, suggesting that the index is now at a bottom.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid but probability has decreased due to fall below 680 in recent weeks.

Currency:  none

8th August: The best case scenario is shown in the first chart, which would require a bit of consolidation for another six weeks or so. Finance is doing well. See also a little breakout on the weekly chart.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid but probability has decreased due to fall below 680 in recent weeks.

Currency:  none

1st August: The index broke out of a little double bottom, as expected last week. But daily turnover for the index is too low to inspire confidence. I would not be surprised if the index fails at 695, or thereabouts.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid but probability has decreased due to fall below 680 in recent weeks.

Currency:  none

25th July: The good news is that the long term supports for Banking, Finance and Communications are all in tact. The bad news is that volume is not picking up, which we would expect, for an impending bottom. Best hope for swift end to the current bear trend would be a sharp double bottom, resembling three bottoms that occurred last year.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid but probability has decreased due to fall below 680 in recent weeks.

Currency:  none

20th July: The index appears to have fallen too far to rally much further this year. At the very least, I would expect the index to be trapped in the 600 range or the next few months and quite likely till the middle of next year. This is just idle musing. There is nothing very clear to go on. In the short term, a fall back to the 640 level would give the index a chance to bottom at its current level. If that doesn't happen, the bleak scenarios listed below should be considered. Keep an eye on BBL , on the next page.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid, and increasing in probability.

Currency:  none

11th July: Dangerous long term scenario could see the index fall to 540 or even 450. Uggh. But the Banking and Finance sectors are both on good long term supports. Let's hope they hold.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid, and increasing in probability.

Currency:  none

27th June: Low volume suggests that the index is unlikely to pass 700 in the short term. Another few weeks of bottoming would be beneficial if volume picks up.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid, and increasing in probability.

Currency:  none

20th June: The market needs more turnover in order for a credible bottom to happen.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid, and increasing in probability.

Currency:  none

13th June: Nothing persuasive in the SET index. The best case scenario, shown in the first chart below, would be a fall back to 660 and another two weeks of consolidation. A rally beyond 690 at the current low volume would only add confusion. The long term banking and finance sector indices both give hope for a continuation of the long term bullish trend. Communications and Property are less persuasive.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term: none

Long term: double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid, and increasing in probability.

Currency:  none

6th June: A very lazy market. Good supports in the Finance and Property sectors. But it will be at least another few weeks before the medium term trend is resolved.

Current prediction
Short term: head and shoulders top points to 645, confirmed below 670 - cancelled

Medium term: triple bottom points to 770

Long term: double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid, and increasing in probability.

Currency:  none

21st May: Another week or two of sideways movement would increase the chances of a bottom, as shown in the scenario in the first chart. Otherwise, we should consider the prospect of seeing the index fall to 645, or thereabouts.

Current prediction
Short term: head and shoulders top points to 645, confirmed below 670

Medium term: triple bottom points to 770

Long term: double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid, and increasing in probability.

Currency:  none

16th May: No clear indicators. Some supports are still holding. But these are continually moving in an attempt to save the long term targets. Far better to wait for a clear bottoming indication. We may have a bottom develop from the pattern in the first chart. But, ideally, this would take another week or two.

Current prediction
Short term: head and shoulders top points to 645, confirmed below 670

Medium term: triple bottom points to 770

Long term: double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid, and increasing in probability.

Currency:  none

25th April: The index is still safe, although dangerously perched on a support. A close at 670 would break the support and we would likely see a fall to 645.

Current prediction
Short term: head and shoulders top points to 645, confirmed below 670

Medium term: triple bottom points to 770

Long term: double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid, and increasing in probability.

Currency:  none

18th April: Support at around 678 is the one to watch.

Current prediction
Short term: head and shoulders top points to 645

Medium term: triple bottom points to 770

Long term: double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid, and increasing in probability.

Currency:  none

11th April: Yellow support in the third chart, at the current level, is the most important. If the support breaks, we may see a fall back to 600. Failure of a similar support on the weekly chart is dangerous. The weekly chart is usually a leading indicator. Finance and Communications sectors are well supported. So is Property. Banking has a very promising long term scenario. Thus there is a chance that we will see the weekly chart repair its broken support and the index continue its bullish trend. But be prepared for further falls until the 'all clear' is sounded. Keep an eye on BBL too (see next page).

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term: triple bottom points to 770

Long term: double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid, and increasing in probability.

Currency:  none

4th April: The index is not giving a clear picture of support at the current level. But all the major sectors are sitting on strong supports, suggesting that the index has bottomed. We'll know in a few days. If the market keeps falling and we see another close at 670 or lower, we can expect 645.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term: triple bottom points to 770

Long term: double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid, and increasing in probability.

Currency:  none

21st March: Banking, Finance and Communications all turned on good support last week. But there is no sign of a short term bottom yet. We could still see a fall back to 690, unless we see a close at or above 725 on strong volume of at least 25 billion baht daily turnover for a few days. Breakout in Agriculture.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term: triple bottom points to 770

Long term: double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid, and increasing in probability.

Currency:  none

14th March: Good support at 690. Finance, Communications and Property are all near good long term supports. Banking is likely to fall further, say around 230.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term:  triple bottom points to 770

Long term:  double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid, and increasing in probability.

Currency:  none

8th March: A close on support at around 750 in the first chart would remove concern about a fall back to 700. Good supports in sector charts.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term:  triple bottom points to 770

Long term:  double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid, and increasing in probability.

Currency:  none

21st February: The market clearly seems to be on the way up in the long term. Targets of around 900 are quite likely to be seen this year. The medium term, however, could see a fall back to the 700 level unless we get a close around 745 or higher this week. Volume is not too encouraging. The energy sector's breakout from long term resistance, on the other hand, does inspire confidence. Keep an eye on BBL. If it breaks 114 on strong volume of 15 million shares, or higher, chances for a rally for the whole market are good.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term:  triple bottom points to 770

Long term:  double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid, and increasing in probability

14th February: The index has reached resistance at around 740 and turned. There is support at around 720. Below that, support is as low as 690. If the index breaks resistance at around 745, there is a good chance that we will see our medium term target of  770 in the next few weeks. The banking sector has a strong resistance at 270. Breakout from that resistance would be bullish.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term:  triple bottom points to 770

Long term:  double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid, and increasing in probability.

Currency:  none

31st January: Chances of 770 are good provided the index stays above 690.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term:  triple bottom points to 770

Long term:  double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid, and increasing in probability.

Currency:  none

17th January: Highly likely that we will see the index reach the upper 740's in the next few weeks. What happens after that depends on volume. If we see daily turnover exceding 30billion baht per day consistently, chances are good that the index will break the resistance just under 750.

Current prediction
Short term: reverse head and shoulders points to 710 - done intra-day today, 17th January

Medium term:  triple bottom points to 780

Long term:  double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid, and increasing in probability.

Currency:  none

10th January: The index appears to be back on track for target of 910, after spending most of last year pulling back to the big long term double bottom. See the long term charts below and not the weekly chart resistance at around 1,000.

Current prediction
Short term: reverse head and shoulders points to 710

Medium term:  triple bottom points to 780

Long term:  double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid, and increasing in probability.

Currency:  none


2004

20th December: A short term pattern points to 710. There is strong resistance, however, at 690. The Banking Sector is still looking strong, thereby giving the index a good chance of breaking out of the 700 level in coming weeks.

Current prediction
Short term: reverse head and shoulders points to 710

Medium term:  none

Long term:  double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid, and increasing in probability.

Currency:  none

13th December: The banking sector has turned on the support of a medium term double bottom. That is the most encouraging indicator for the market. The SET could fall to 620 - see the first chart. Otherwise, not much to go on. I prefer to watch the banking sector.

Current prediction
Short term:  none

Medium term:  none

Long term:  double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid, and increasing in probability.

Currency:  none

6th December: The fund chart shows a breakout from a medium term pattern. Otherwise, the index and major sector charts (banking, finance, communication and property) are all waiting to break out from bottom scenarios.

Current prediction
Short term:  none

Medium term:  none

Long term:  double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid, and increasing in probability.

Currency:  none
20th November: The top pointing to 600 is cancelled. Strong signals in the banking sector suggest further upside. Property and finance could be coming back to life. 690 has a good chance if volume holds firm.

Current prediction
Short term: 1. double top points to 595 (more likely 600 due to medium term support) - cancelled
 

Medium term:  none

Long term:  double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid, and increasing in probability.

Currency:  none
15th November: No clear indication from the index. But the banking sector has made a little bottom and has broken out of a medium term resistance on good volume. Strength in the banking sector is often a leader for the market as a whole. Look at the property and finance sectors. These sectors are both on strong long term support and offer a good chance for bargains for those who dare to go bottom fishing.

Current prediction
Short term: double top points to 595 (more likely 600 due to medium term support) - cancelled if the index closes at 650.

Medium term:  none

Long term:  double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid, and increasing in probability.

Currency:  none

25th October: The index is not giving clear indication of short term direction. But the banking sector is looking reasonably strong, with a nice short term bottom. The finance sector showed strength by shrugging of a short term top, as did the communication sector. However, volume last week was not encouraging. Another week might give a clearer picture: in particular, will the banking sector maintain its bullish path?

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term:  double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid, and increasing in probability.

Currency:  none

18th October: Support at 639 or slightly lower is critical for the short term. The finance sector still looks bearish. But that could change with a slightly higher close on the finance sector index. The long term scenario is still the prevailing indicator and it still looks persuasive.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term:  double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid, and increasing in probability.

Currency:  none

11th October: The index is now testing neckline resistance at 670. A breakout on high volume, followed by sustained high volume, would give a target of 770. A breakout from a short term pattern in the weekly chart is encouraging.

20th September: The long term daily and weekly charts show encouraging breakouts with fairly good volume. A breakout above 670 on strong volume would suggest a retesting of 760 and perhaps beyond.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term:  double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid, and increasing in probability.

Currency:  none

4th September:  A nice bottoming pattern appears to be forming on long term double bottom neckline. A slow rally to 670 not before early next month would be the best scenario.

Current prediction
Short term: double bottom points to 635 - done

Medium term:  none

Long term:  double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid, but looking weak.

Currency:  none

30th August: Little double bottoms are appearing in the SET, the finance and the communications sectors. These patterns could be an indication of the bottom of the long term bearish trend that started at the beginning of the year. Also encouraging is the turn on the neckline of our long term bullish pattern in the third chart.

Current prediction
Short term: double bottom points to 635

Medium term:  none

Long term:  double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid, but looking weak.

Currency:  none

23rd August: The index has found good support. But there is no bottom formation yet. We need to wait at least a few weeks for a bottom to form, before concluding that the index has reversed its medium term bearish trend. The long term hope is shown in the third chart. There is still good reason to be hopeful. The BBL chart (next page) still shows a bullish pattern. And many stocks, especially those in property and finance, are on excellent support. However, the sharpness of the fall over the last few months suggests that many stocks will not return to the highs of this year for at least another year or two. There is still plenty of good trading opportunity to be had in the intervening volatility. With luck, we will have buy signals in a few weeks.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term:  double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid, but looking weak.

Currency:  none

9th August: The banking sector is testing last ditch support. But a number of important supports have failed: long term SET and communications sectors. Thus the chances of the index reaching our long term target of 900, are looking weaker than in previous months. Important support will be that of 570 on the weekly chart, should the index fall so low. Keep an eye on the banking sector. If it falls a few points lower, chances are that the index is going to test the 570 support.

Current prediction
Short term: head and shoulders top points to 605

Medium term:  none

Long term:  double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid, but looking weak.

Currency:  none

2nd August: The banking sector is holding on to last support. See the long term chart below. If the support fails, chances are that the index will take a dive to support at 570. But there is cause for hope that the current strong long term supports will hold.

Current prediction
Short term: head and shoulders top points to 605 - only cancelled if the index closes above 640.

Medium term:  none

Long term:  double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid

26th July: The index broke out of a little top today, pointing to 605. We should expect this target soon, unless the index shrugs off the little pattern in the first chart and closes at 640.

The long term daily chart is still the basis for hope (third chart). It shows the index still on channel support. The Banking Sector long term chart is similarly on long term support, despite a sharp drop today and last week. While these supports hold, we can be cautiously optimistic that the index is still in bull mode.

Current prediction
Short term: head and shoulders top points to 605 - only cancelled if the index closes above 640.

Medium term:  none

Long term:  double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid

Currency:  none

12th July: The banking and communications sectors gained a little strength last week. With luck, they will be strong enough to propel the index over the resistance at the current level. If the index breaks 675 with volume increasing to around 30 billion baht for a few days, we would have a good chance of seeing 715 in the short term.

Current prediction
Short term: double bottom points to 705 - confirmed if index closes above 672

Medium term:  triple top points to  520 (log) and 490 (arithmetic) - cancelled

Long term:  double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid

Currency:  none
28th June: The index closed above a medium term resistance at 640. Volume, however, was weak. We really need a return to the 30 or 40 million level before we can expect a big rally. On the other hand, several sector indices have turned nicely on long term supports, giving hope that the market has at least found a bottom. Too early to say with confidence.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term:  triple top points to  520 (log) and 490 (arithmetic)

Long term:  double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid

Currency:  none

31st May: The index could be bottoming at the current level. Evidence is in the short term SET daily chart, the long term banking chart and the short term finance chart, as shown below.

If the index is bottoming at the current level, we will have very nice long term double bottoms on the daily, weekly and fund charts suggesting at least a 50% upside for the market in the medium term (three to six months).

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term:  triple top points to  520 (log) and 490 (arithmetic)

Long term: 1. double bottom (daily) pointing to 860 (pink pattern) and 880 (grey pattern)-cancelled
                   2. double bottom (daily - sloping up neckline) pointing to 960-cancelled
                   3. double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid
All long term targets less likely

Currency:  none

10th May: There is a chance that the index will form a base at the current level. In such case, we would still have one valid target of around 920. The others seem unlikely. If the index falls much below 590, I think we should expect 520. Look to the banking sector. If it falls to around 210, I think we should assume the worst.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term:  triple top points to  520 (log) and 490 (arithmetic)

Long term: 1. double bottom (daily) pointing to 860 (pink pattern) and 880 (grey pattern)
                   2. double bottom (daily - sloping up neckline) pointing to 960
                   3. double bottom (weekly) points to 900 - still valid
All long term targets less likely

Currency:  none

3rd May: The index fell to our short term bearish target last week. What can I say about the medium term? Confusion again. The failure of the SET to breach the 715 level, a couple of weeks ago, was a big disappointment. The whole region is now in danger of extending the current medium term bearish trend. This would tend to put our long term targets in doubt. However, the Banking Sector gives the clearest picture. The Banking Sector chart shows the sector is still safe. Provided the sector stays above support at around 228, we can presume that the medium term is bullish. Otherwise we would be looking for support somewhere around 580.

Current prediction
Short term: double top points to 650 - done

Medium term:  none

Long term: 1. double bottom (daily) pointing to 860 (pink pattern) and 880 (grey pattern)
                   2. double bottom (daily - sloping up neckline) pointing to 960
                   3. double bottom (weekly) points to 900
All long term targets less likely

Currency:  none

26th April: Some weak short term signals for the SET index, the Finance and the Property sectors. But the long term charts all look very good, especially the third chart.

Current prediction
Short term: double top points to 650

Medium term:  none

Long term: 1. double bottom (daily) pointing to 860 (pink pattern) and 880 (grey pattern)
                   2. double bottom (daily - sloping up neckline) pointing to 960
                   3. double bottom (weekly) points to 900

Currency:  none

16th April: The third chart and the long term banking sector chart give the most compelling case for the medium to long term bull.

Current prediction
Short term: double top (weekly) points to 620 - cancelled

Medium term:  none

Long term: 1. double bottom (daily) pointing to 860 (pink pattern) and 880 (grey pattern)
                   2. double bottom (daily - sloping up neckline) pointing to 960
                   3. double bottom (weekly) points to 900

Currency:  none
12th April: The banking sector turned on the neckline of our long term reversal pattern. The greater probability now is that the index will soon retest resistances at around 750 and 800 and that we will soon see target. The weekly chart and fund chart also support a bullish long term scenario.

Current prediction
Short term: double top (weekly) points to 620 - dubious

Medium term:  none

Long term: 1. double bottom (daily) pointing to 860 (pink pattern) and 880 (grey pattern)
                   2. double bottom (daily - sloping up neckline) pointing to 960
                   3. double bottom (weekly) points to 900

Currency:  none

5th April: The index has broken upside from a wedge on persuasive volume. Good chance that the index has bottomed. Banking sector has turned on neckline support. Short term: likely that 750 will be retested. My hope/expectation is that 800 will soon break and we will soon see our long term targets

Current prediction
Short term: double top (weekly) points to 620

Medium term:  none

Long term: 1. double bottom (daily) pointing to 860 (pink pattern) and 880 (grey pattern)
                   2. double bottom (daily - sloping up neckline) pointing to 960
                   3. double bottom (weekly) points to 900

Currency:  none

15th March: Double bottom targets are still valid. The only danger for the market in the medium term is if the index falls below 650. We would then have a double top pointing to around 525. However, the long term patterns pointing to 860 and beyond are very strong and should be presumed highly probable unless cancelled. Keep an eye on the banking sector. 225 is an important support.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term: 1. double bottom (daily) pointing to 860 (pink pattern) and 880 (grey pattern)
                   2. double bottom (daily - sloping up neckline) pointing to 960
                   3. double bottom (weekly) points to 930 (pink pattern) and 1,000 (blue pattern)

Currency:  none

8th March: Danger of a double top in the short term. The important support would be at around 650. But keep an eye on channel supports. The weekly chart has shown a failure of the channel support. That is a danger. There are also tops forming in some sectors. Important support on the daily chart at around 685. But while the trend is bullish, we should presume upside until a valid top breaks. None has yet.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term: 1. double bottom (daily) pointing to 860 (pink pattern) and 880 (grey pattern)
                   2. double bottom (daily - sloping up neckline) pointing to 960
                   3. double bottom (weekly) points to 930 (pink pattern) and 1,000 (blue pattern)

1st March: The index rebounded last week on support at around 690. Now the question is whether it will hold above support or fall through. If the support fails, we have a double top scenario with neckline at around 650 and target of 510. On the other hand, we have a clear prediction of 880, at least. This target should prevail over the short term top. But we should be vigilant.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term: 1. double bottom (daily) pointing to 860 (pink pattern) and 880 (grey pattern)
                   2. double bottom (daily - sloping up neckline) pointing to 960
                   3. double bottom (weekly) points to 950

23rd February: Higher targets are clear, however, there is likely to be some short term weakness at the beginning of this week. Communications, Finance and Energy sectors look vulnerable.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term: 1. double bottom (daily) pointing to 860 (pink pattern) and 880 (grey pattern)
                   2. double bottom (daily - sloping up neckline) pointing to 960
                   3. double bottom (weekly) points to 950

16th February: The swift rally last week adds evidence to our prediction of 960. The Banking sector looks strong.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term: 1. double bottom (daily) pointing to 860 (pink pattern) and 880 (grey pattern)
                   2. double bottom (daily - sloping up neckline) pointing to 960
                   3. double bottom (weekly) points to 950

Currency:  none

9th February: Targets are in tact, despite the avian jitters of the last week. The astute technician will see that the volatility of the last couple of weeks had its inverse corollary in July 1997 (third chart). Thus if it wasn't bird flu that sent the market rollicking, it would, no doubt, have been something else. A few negative scenarios in the unlikely event that the market has entered a medium term bear trend. The greater probability would see a swift march to targets at around 860 and beyond.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term: 1. double bottom (daily) pointing to 860 (pink pattern) and 880 (grey pattern)
                  2. double bottom (daily - sloping up neckline) pointing to 960
                   3. double bottom (weekly) points to 950

26th January: Chicken flu panic struck the chicken-hearted last week, as the market fell to a low of 738. No significant change to the market conditions resulted. Long term targets stand. A close above 780 would likely end the current short term bearish trend. A close below 730 could see a fall to 690.

The big question is in the banking sector. The sector has a valid long term target of  310 and has good support at the current level. However, many banking stocks are making topping patterns and BAY has already broken one. A close at 255 for the sector would break out from a little double top with a target of around 230. But only a close below 247 would give a clear indication of a fall to 230. The greater probability is a rebound on the long term support at around 255.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term: 1. double bottom (daily) pointing to 860 (pink pattern) and 880 (grey pattern)
                   2. double bottom (daily-sloping up neckline) pointing to 960
                   3. double bottom (weekly) points to 950

Currency:  none

19th January: A short term top scenario in the first chart could see a fall back to the 700 level. However, the targets in the second chart are highly likely and target of 960 in the third chart could not be more persuasive.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term: 1. double bottom (daily) pointing to 860 (pink pattern) and 880 (grey pattern)
                   2. double bottom (daily-sloping up neckline) pointing to 960
                   3. double bottom (weekly) points to 950

Currency:  none

12th January: The index has a clear target of 960. There is strong resistance at 840 and approaching on many of the sector charts. Volume is excellent.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term: 1. double bottom (daily) pointing to 860 (pink pattern) and 880 (grey pattern)
                   2. double bottom (daily-sloping up neckline) pointing to 960
                   3. double bottom (weekly) points to 950

Currency:  none


2003

29th December: Slight resistances at 800 and 840. But target of 860 to 960 look good. Banking and Communications are the hottest sectors.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term: 1. double bottom (daily) pointing to 860 (pink pattern) and 880 (grey pattern)
                   2. double bottom (daily-sloping up neckline) pointing to 960
                   3. double bottom (weekly) points to 900

Currency:  none

1st December: Clear long term targets of 860. The short term is still uncertain and will remain so until we get a close above the resistances around 680. Communications is looking to be the hottest sector.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term: 1. double bottom (daily) pointing to 860 (pink pattern) and 880 (grey pattern)
                    2. double bottom (weekly) points to 880

Currency:  none

24th November: The banking and finance sectors are sitting on a dangerous neckline support. Communications is also sitting on an important support. If these supports break, the market is likely to fall further. On the other hand, a sudden rebound this week would confirm the bullish target for the communications sector. Other sectors are still strongly bullish: chemicals, commerce, energy.

The weekly chart is still bullish and nothing has occurred, during the current minor correction, to dampen confidence for the long term targets in the upper 800 region. There has been much chatter in Thailand about the market falling in response to new rules by the SET aimed at curbing "speculation" (whatever that is). This is parochialist nonsense. The whole region is in a minor bear trend and Thailand is merely following the regional trend. When sellers have finished taking profit, we may expect the region to move up again. Supports are at around 590 to 600 and then 540.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term: 1. double bottom (daily) pointing to 860 (pink pattern) and 880 (grey pattern)
                   2. double bottom (weekly) points to 880

17th November: All sectors looking bullish, especially the Communications sector. Target of 860 is still valid. But there is strong resistance at the 680 level that could even see a fall back to 600. I doubt it.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term: 1. double bottom (daily) pointing to 860 (pink pattern) and 880 (grey pattern)
                   2. double bottom (weekly) points to 880

10th November: Breakouts in the banking, finance and communications sectors on excellent volume, plus another record volume day for the total market give more fuel to the current rally. We can expect the current rally to continue for quite a while longer.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term: 1. double bottom (daily) pointing to 860 (pink pattern) and 880 (grey pattern)
                    2. double bottom (weekly) points to 880

3rd November: Next resistance at 680. But long term probability of 860 is increased by the breakout from 630 resistance.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term: 1. double bottom (daily) pointing to 860 (pink pattern) and 880 (grey pattern)
                    2. double bottom (weekly) points to 880

27th October: The strongest indicator is the weekly chart, which gives a clear target of around 880. In the short term, there is resistance between 620 and 630. We could even see a sharp fall. But the long term looks quite clear.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term: 1. double bottom (daily) pointing to 860 (pink pattern) and 880 (grey pattern)
                    2. double bottom (weekly) points to 880

20th October: No major development. The index closed at a new recent high last Friday, thereby reducing the threat of a double top. Next strong resistance would be in the range of 610 to 630.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term: double bottom (daily and weekly) both point to 860

13th October: The banking, finance and communications sectors are all testing strong resistances. If these resistances break, as I expect they will soon, we could see a sharp rally to our next resistance point of around 630 or 640. On the other hand, a fall below 540 would give a double top indicating a fall back to 500.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term: double bottom (daily and weekly) both point to 860

Currency:  none

6th October: Short term topping danger. But the long term double bottom should be given priority. Downside, if any, should not be lower than 500 - 520. Some stocks appear to be topping in the short term. But they could be testing necklines of long term bottoms. I would give priority to the long term patterns over the short term.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term: double bottom (daily and weekly) both point to 860

22nd September: Yet another record turnover day and all days last week with volume above the 50 day average. High volume gives further evidence for our target of 860. Last week's comments otherwise hold.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term: double bottom (daily and weekly) both point to 860

15th September: Another record daily turnover last Friday gives further evidence of a long term sustainable bull market. The double bottom with target of 860 is not confirmed by a pullback to the neckline and turn. But it is nonetheless a well defined neckline supported by excellent volume. We thus have a classic, text book example, of a long term reversal.

The finance sector had excellent volume last week too. Volume previously was lacking. It is now sufficient for a persuasive long term reversal. Turnover for the communications sector is still excellent. Despite the recent hesitation, chances of strong upside are excellent for that sector.

The banking sector, on the other hand, hasn't really yet started to move. (KTB is the chief laggard.) The sector needs to double merely to reach the neckline of its long term double bottom. (It is analogous to the SET earlier this year, in the mid 300's.) Volume is still unimpressive for the banking sector. But there is plenty of time for the sector to catch up and for volume for the sector to surpass that of January 2001. If this happens, we can expect the sector to quadruple to the 800 or 900 level in a year or two. If that happens, we can expect the SET to soar. The upper resistance on the long term weekly chart at around 1,900 would not be too fanciful. A lot of "ifs". However this market has fallen more than any other in the region. It has not yet recovered to a level one third of its all time high. The turnover pattern since March this year suggests that it might be time for playback.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term: double bottom (daily and weekly) both point to 860

Currency:  none

8th September: The bullish trend continued last week. The long term double bottom on the weekly chart broke out, confirming the target of the daily chart.
1st September:  Prospects for target of 860 increased over the last two weeks due to excellent volume. Some resistance at the 630 level. But the long term outlook is a textbook case of bullishness supported by strong volume.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term: double bottom points to 860

18th August: Excellent volume gives hope to our prediction of 860. The pattern still needs more time for confirmation. But chances are very good. The only worry is the long term bottom for the banking sector, which lacks volume. On the other hand, Finance, Communications, Property, Energy and Commerce all look very strong.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term: double bottom points to 860

11th August: The index broke out today from a long term bottom pointing to 860. If the pattern remains valid over the next few weeks and volume remains strong, we could confirm the target. First major resistance would be at around 630. Time frame for the target would be within a year. Volume and proportion of the patter are both excellent. Accordingly, chances of 860 in the next 12 months or so are high.

Current prediction
Short term: none

Medium term:  none

Long term: double bottom points to 860

4th August: Lots of bullish indicators in the market. But there is no clear sign from the SET index chart itself as it tests a long term resistance. With luck, something clearer will appear this week: either a rally above 510, or a fall below 465 would add a bit of clarity to the current trend.

28th July: The index is in danger of making a short term double top at the current level. Downside would be 20% - around 400. But I doubt that would happen.

Most of the sectors have a similar double top pattern developing. But many of the sectors look bullish in the long term, such that a short term top would not be a threat.

We are still waiting for the index to break above the neckline at around 518. A close at around 525 on very strong volume would give a tentative breakout from the double bottom in the third chart. Confirmation of the bottom after breakout, by way of pullback to and turn on the neckline, would give a target of 860, provided volume supported the pattern.

21st July: The resistance at around 518 in the third chart, is now the most important indicator. This resistance forms the neckline of a long term double bottom shown in the fourth chart. If the index breaks this neckline persuasively, with a surge of volume equal to or greater than the rec