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US Markets
Charts current to 18th May, except where otherwise indicated
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Analagous to the Dow chart, above. Good support now and at 1,180.
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Support approaching.
Still looks bullish in the long term, provided the orange support holds at 2,600.
A patch of new lows but nothing severe.
Target cancelled. Note the low volume attending the breakout from the bottom, which is a sign of a doubtful target. No support nearby. Top target done.
A double top on channel resistance (orange) makes for a precipitous drop from neckline.
Breakout. Expect further falls.
Good support. Perhaps the tech sector will fare better than other sectors in this bear trend.
Now retesting previous supports.
Charts below current to 27th March.
Next resistance for the Dow is at 13,700, or thereabouts. If we get a top at this level we can conclude that the Dow is still in a downtrend. Volume is not encouraging.
Long term log chart with supports and resistances: possible channel in orange, regression line in blue. The Dow is currently on its historic mean of 7% compound growth per year.
A top at 1,500 would indicate the continuation of the decade-long downtrend.
On the other hand, a rally to 1,600 would indicate a slightly rising bull trend; slight enough to be a mere range.
Long term log chart showing the S&P500 below its historic mean. Note the average compound growth is the same as that of the Dow in the chart above.
Resistance in pink.
Close to the mean at 3,300.
The long term down trend. The next support for the ten year is 1.5 or 1.6.
PE still within trending range. Breakout from bearish channel in pink and resistance at 24.
P/Es are based on average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years (P/E10). source: http://www.multpl.com Read more about this concept at: http://thesmarterwallet.com/2009/price-earnings-ratio-pe-ratio/
Chart below current to 27th August 2010
A 20 year daily chart showing the 400 day moving average in black. Note how the average defines, with a small margin of error, each major bull and bear trend over the last 20 years. A fall to 1,000 would cross the 400 day average. Until then, the index is still in a bull trend. This chart also demonstrates the claim that bull markets last longer than bear markets by a factor of about three to one.
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All predictions since 1996
