Barton's Global Market Trends .............................................................................................................Disclaimer; Glossary

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US Markets

 
30th January: No change to the major indices but many stocks are making bottoms, suggesting a bullish year ahead. The Dow is testing resistance at around 12,700. The S&P is lagging. Next resistance at around 1,350.

 

 
 
 
 
 
 

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Charts current to 27th January, except where otherwise indicated

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Testing resistance at 12,700.

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Next resistance 1,360.

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Next resistance 2,900.

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The average is starting to turn positive.

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Now testing strong resistance. Breakout from 29 would be bullish.

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Small bottom breakout. Now we need to see volume and a breakout with a close at 35.

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Resistance at current level. Volume is a bit weak to be confident of the target. But the bottom looks convincing. Upside resistance at 22.

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Bottom formed in green. Good recent volume. Target would be 46 on breakout.

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Bottom scenarios for the long and 10 year bonds.

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PE chart current to 30th December.

PE still within trending range.
P/Es are based on average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years (P/E10). source: http://www.multpl.comRead more about this concept at: http://thesmarterwallet.com/2009/price-earnings-ratio-pe-ratio/

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Charts below current to 23rd September.

The long term down trend. The next support for the ten year is 1.5 or 1.6.

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Long term log chart with supports and resistances: possible channel in orange, regression line in blue. The Dow is currently on its historic mean of 7% compound growth per year.

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Long term log chart showing the S&P500 below its historic mean. Note the average compound growth is the same as that of the Dow in the chart above.

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Support at 2,300.

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Chart below current to 27th August 2010
A 20 year daily chart showing the 400 day moving average in black. Note how the average defines, with a small margin of error, each major bull and bear trend over the last 20 years. A fall to 1,000 would cross the 400 day average. Until then, the index is still in a bull trend. This chart also demonstrates the claim that bull markets last longer than bear markets by a factor of about three to one.

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